I'm so excited. This week's Fantasy Notebook is my opportunity to deliver great news. Maybe even the best news of the year!
Footballguy Cecil Lammey articulated the problem Thursday in his open to The Audible: "Can we please just hurry and get the draft here? There are so many lies going on right now."
Friends. . . I'm here to tell you the end is in sight.
Lying season is almost over.
That said, I must emphasize the "almost."
Because it's absolutely not over yet. And it will ramp up between now and the start of the NFL Draft on Thursday night.
We've seen examples of it in recent days.
When Buffalo traded receiver Stefon Diggs to the Texans, it became all but inevitable that the Bills would look for a No. 1 receiver in the first round.
Brandon Beane disputed that narrative this past Thursday. The Bills general manager claimed his team doesn't "need" a true alpha receiver this season.
"What you need are guys that in this offense who are smart, versatile, selfless, and can make the plays that their skill set allows them to make," Beane explained.
I'll kindly point out this is a change from April 3, the day Diggs was shipped off to Houston.
That day, Beane promised to "turn over every stone" to replace the departed wideout.
Clearly, Thursday's shift was about advancing the team's strategic interests. Everyone expects them to be looking at receivers with the 28th pick overall, but they may also have to trade up to get the player they want.
Beane's comments were an attempt to gain leverage in potential trade talks.
Of course, if I know this, it's safe to assume other NFL teams are also onto him. And they're onto him because, like Beane, they're lying, too.
But the lies end Thursday night.
That's when nothing but the truth -- in the form of draft capital expended -- gets told, much like it's revealed with cash spent in free agency.
And I can't wait . . .
With that, I have a couple of quick follow-ups . . .
All 32 NFL teams are in Phase 1 of their voluntary offseason workout programs. Attendance is not required, but as we look at the most notable names on the list of those who aren't volunteering, wide receivers lead the way.
As expected, CeeDee Lamb wasn't on hand in Dallas for the start of the Cowboys' off-season program. Minnesota's Justin Jefferson, looking for a contract extension likely to set records for a receiver and perhaps any non-quarterback, was also a no-show.
I have more on that in this week's Top 5 Fantasy Headlines.
Besides Jefferson and Lamb, Denver's Courtland Sutton and the Giants' Darius Slayton are also sitting out their teams' respective voluntary sessions.
Catch up on all that (and more) with Sigmund Bloom's This Week in NFL News.
Meanwhile, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid told reporters that wide receiver Rashee Rice will participate virtually in the first phase of the Chiefs' offseason program.
Reid added that the team will see how things play out with the criminal charges related to the six-car crash Rice was involved in before making any long-term plans. As previously noted, Rice turned himself into authorities last week, and a police report said he was going 119 miles per hour at the time of the crash. He faces eight felony charges and potential team and league discipline. "I'm leaving that like we've done most of these for the law enforcement part to take place, and then we will go from there with that," Reid said . . .
With all that sorted out, let's get to the good stuff, starting with our usual look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Saints
Jobs are on the line in New Orleans, and head coach Dennis Allen is banking on new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak revamping the offense to such a degree it gets the club back on track after missing the postseason the past two seasons.
"I felt like Klint Kubiak was obviously the person of choice," Allen said during a recent appearance on NFL Network. "I've known Klint for a long time. I feel like I've known the family for probably over 20, 30 years. I feel like I've known this scheme for a long time. And I feel like this is the best scheme that gives your players the best chance to succeed in the National Football League right now."
The offense will resemble those deployed by Kubiak's father, Super Bowl-winning coach Gary Kubiak.
SBNation explained in 2016 that Gary Kubiak's offense is considered a "running offense," but that is only a partially correct characterization. A better statement is that the Kubiak offense runs to set up the pass. If the running game is working, then the whole offense is working.
Klint was an offensive assistant with the Broncos from 2016-2018. He joined the Vikings as quarterbacks coach under then-offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski in 2019. Kubiak was elevated to Vikings OC in 2021, replacing his retired father. In 2022, he was named passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in Denver under Nathaniel Hackett. Kubiak eventually took over play-calling duties midway through the 2022 season. The 37-year-old then spent 2023 as the San Francisco 49ers' passing game coordinator.
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra suggested, the key for Kubiak is getting the most out of quarterback Derek Carr, who experienced a roller-coaster first season in New Orleans. When hiring a new OC, Allen said he discussed the options with Carr and felt Kubiak's offense would best fit the quarterback's skill set.
Allen is banking on Kubiak to jumpstart the offense. Otherwise, they'll all likely be looking for new jobs in 2025.
Except Carr . . .
No Escaping The QB
The Saints reworked Carr's contract in late February, saving the team around $23 million in much-needed cap space.
Carr, who finished 2023 ranked 13th in passing yards (3,878) and 10th in touchdown passes (25), now ranks 13th in the league in money per year. His 2024 salary cap hit ranks 20th in the league.
He'll remain under contract through 2026.
The bottom line for fantasy managers is Carr is not going anywhere anytime soon, and the Saints have done nothing to make their quarterback room more competitive.
While the Saints view his performance as right in line with his compensation, USA Today's John Siglar sees it differently. "Carr didn't play well enough for the Saints last year," Siglar wrote. "Not well enough to get his team to the playoffs and not well enough to save his coaching staff's jobs.
"There isn't time for any hiccups, learning curves, or delays in executing Kubiak's offense."
Nor is there great fantasy interest in Carr.
He's QB26 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, which aligns with his current value on best-ball platforms. That's outside QB2 territory, which might say as much about the overall enthusiasm for this offense as it does Carr . . .
Kamara Priced Right?
Kubiak will likely lean heavily on Alvin Kamara. The veteran running back finished 2023 with a disappointing 1,100 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns after missing the first three weeks to suspension. While those might be solid totals for some, as recently as 2020, Kamara was putting up seasons of around 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns.
His 2023 yardage total was a career low. For only the second time in his career, he failed to average even 4 yards per carry, and he hasn't hit double-digit TDs since that 2020 campaign.
Is he washed?
We don't think so, and it's not cost-prohibitive to find out.
Kamara is RB12 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. That's well ahead of his RB20 Average Draft Position (ADP) in early best-ball drafts.
The obvious hope would be Kubiak uses Kamara the way he used Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
According to SI.com's Bob Rose, second-year man Kendre Miller offers "tantalizing possibilities" after flashing excellent potential down the stretch. Rose believes we'll also see Jamaal Williams used in more situations.
Kubiak's system is based on a one-cut, zone-blocking philosophy that will benefit all three backs, along with Taysom Hill . . .
A Shallow Receiving Pool
The team made a half-hearted effort to bolster its wide receiver room by signing veteran free agent Cedrick Wilson Jr., but the quest for a true WR2 continues.
Chris Olave has emerged as a star, and Rashid Shaheed possesses intriguing speed, but Rose contends the team needs a proven, consistent option next to Olave.
They could still use this week's draft, loaded with talent at wideout, to add to the position after moving on from veteran Michael Thomas. For now, however, Olave and Shaheed are viable fantasy options.
One is far more viable than the other.
Olave finished the 2024 regular season with 1,123 yards and five touchdowns on 87 receptions. As the top pass-catching option in the Saints' offense in 2024, the former Ohio State standout will continue to be the top fantasy asset in New Orleans.
You'll find him going as WR12 on BestBall 10s and WR17 on Underdog. He's WR9 on the Footballguys 2024 Rankings, so there might be some value here as long as we see less of this:
Derek Carr throwing it out of bounds and getting mad at Chris Olave for not making an effort to catch it 💀 pic.twitter.com/5QVpaCBhzJ
— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) October 20, 2023
And more of this:
Here’s a nice throw by Derek Carr to Chris Olave that’s a clear display of reading the leverage effectively. pic.twitter.com/21f5MZEYho
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 22, 2023
Olave has finished as WR24 and WR17 the last two seasons; Carr and Kubiak need to be on point for Olave to hit our perceived ceiling . . .
Beyond That?
Shaheed has flashed his speed and play-making ability on occasion. I expect more of the same, which suits his fantasy WR5 profile in our rankings and ongoing best balls.
Kubiak uses tight ends creatively, so Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Hill could have even more productivity in 2024. All three are essentially free in best balls. Hill isn't tight end eligible on Underdog (instead, he's QB37), but he's the top-ranked play on the roster as TE20 on Bestball 10s. Johnson is TE26.
It'll take more than Kubiak's creativity to make them relevant . . .
Could Nacua Version 2.0 Be An Upgrade?
With the selection process imminent, I'd like to set the controls on the Wayback to this time last year. Specifically, I'd like to review the rookie wide receivers on everybody's radar last April.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison were, as you would expect, the focal point of conversations, considering their first-round selections.
We also discussed players like Marvin Mims Jr., Jayden Reed, Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo, Jaylen Hyatt, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, and Tank Dell.
You may have heard something about a kid out of BYU named Puka Nacua. Of course, it was nothing but whispers until the season started.
Once it did, it didn't take long for Nakua to emerge as one of the top receivers in the NFL.
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper reminded readers, Nacua got a golden opportunity to make an early impact with Cooper Kupp sidelined. The newcomer took advantage of it by posting 25 catches and racking up 266 receiving yards over his first two games.
He went on to catch 105 passes for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns for the season. He capped the year with nine catches for 181 yards and a score in the team's playoff loss to the Lions. He also dabbled in the backfield, carrying the ball 12 times for another 89 yards.
While Kupp's injury was a factor in Nacua's rise, the veteran wideout's past production played a role, too.
In 2021, Kupp delivered one of the greatest receiving seasons in NFL history. He won the "Triple Crown" (the most receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns) during the regular season. Following the Rams' win over the Bengals, he also earned Super Bowl MVP honors.
"I feel like I'm still trying to reach Coop's expectations," Nacua said Monday after Day 1 of the Rams' offseason program, referring to his veteran teammate's past production. "Because he set the standard for us in the wide receiver room and for a lot of receivers in the NFL . . .
"The standard is still set very high, and I don't think I'm close to reaching it."
The good news? Nacua seems to be doing all he can to exceed it.
According to Stu Jackson of the team's official website, that includes spending the last two months at Kupp's house working out and interacting with him often. "Right before the Super Bowl, he was already starting his integration to getting to work out," Nacua said of Kupp.
The two worked on mobility, maintaining explosiveness, top-end speed, and conditioning.
The physical part also includes a new mindset and greater focus on recovery, especially with the bruising playing style Nacua demonstrated last season.
Nacua said that last year, he had a one-day-at-a-time mentality, and the next step in the recovery phase was seeing how much Kupp put into it.
"As much as we were working out hard in the offseason, he was recovering just as hard," said Nacua, whose willingness to go the extra mile here is a good sign heading into the coming season.
Those drafting in early best balls are confident in Nacua. He's WR6 on both BestBall 10s and Underdog, which aligns with our WR6 ranking . . .
For what it's worth, CBSSports.com's Bryan DeArdo reported this week that Kupp appears to be back to his All-Pro form after injuries limited his availability each of the past two years.
Given our WR11 ranking for Kupp, Footballguys is of a like mind. His WR12 ADP on BestBall 10s suggests we're not alone in that.
Demarcus Robinson also returns to the mix after a strong finish that included a five-week stretch (Weeks 13-17) with 21 catches, 319 yards, and four touchdowns. Is that enough to make him a desirable fantasy prospect? With Nacua and Kupp likely dominating the targets again this fall, Robinson's current WR85-ish ADP makes him a fine free-square play.
Alper contends the prospect of Matthew Stafford throwing to a healthy Kupp and an improved Nacua is daunting to opposing defenses and pleasant for a Rams team hoping to stay near the top of the NFC in their first season without Aaron Donald.
Fantasy managers would agree with all that. They should also view Stafford as an affordable QB2 target with upside based on the supporting cast alone . . .
He's Still Young; There's Time To Get It Right
The Panthers hired Dave Canales as head coach with one goal: To turn Bryce Young's NFL career around.
The Panthers hope that what Canales did for quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and, most recently, Baker Mayfield, he can do for Young.
Canales was the passing game coordinator for the Seahawks in 2020. Wilson had a career-high 4,212 yards passing, 40 touchdowns, and a 68.8 completion percentage that season. Canales was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle in 2022. Smith passed for a career-high 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns with a 69.8 completion percentage.
With Canales running the offense in Tampa Bay last year, Mayfield established himself as a productive starting quarterback by posting career highs in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28), and completion percentage (64.3).
It's reasonable to believe that Panthers owner David Tepper saw Canales help Mayfield rebuild his career and the Bucs return to the playoffs, and he expects the same here. It's also safe to say duplicating those feats in Carolina will be challenging.
Young, the top pick of the 2023 draft, had one of the worst statistical seasons in NFL history for a quarterback taken with the top pick. The Panthers went 2-14 in Young's 16 starts (he missed one game because of an ankle injury). He completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 2,877 yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
The Panthers' offensive line was a problem last year. It was better suited for run blocking than pass protection. They also needed to bolster a receiving corps led by Adam Thielen and youngster Jonathan Mingo.
Missions accomplished.
They spent big money on guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to secure interior protection. They also traded for Steelers receiver Diontae Johnson.
So what are the chances Young rebounds?
Thielen believes the changes made this offseason will help the young signal caller.
"Everything was stacked against him last year, unfortunately," Thielen said during a recent appearance on NFL Network. I'm not going to get into detail. But I'm excited for him to have a fresh start, an ability to have a good coaching staff that's going to put a good plan together to help him be successful, and also to put people around him to help him be successful."
Thielen added he felt Young displayed "his maturity over the year."
"His ability at times to be very honest in front of the room and say, 'Hey, this is what I'm not doing very well, and this is what I need to get better at, and please hold me accountable,' I thought was impressive for a young guy," Thielen said.
Andy Dalton, signed last offseason to be a veteran mentor and retained through the coaching change, contends Young battled adversity well and will be better for it. "It's getting built the right way, where, yeah, it's going to set him up to have a better year," Dalton added.
Given how much the Panthers invested in Young -- including shipping a 2024 first-round pick to Chicago, which became the No. 1 selection -- it must work out, or the entire operation will be set back years. He must show the improvement that Dalton and others expect.
While Thielen was Young's favorite target last year (he caught 103 passes for 1,014 yards with four touchdowns), Johnson's arrival will be a factor.
Yahoo's Matt Harmon, also the creator of the Reception Perception method for assessing the receiver position, reminds us that Carolina's wideouts could not get open last season. Johnson's specialty is that. Harmon has been preaching it for some time.
"Johnson is one of the best separators in the NFL," Harmon wrote in 2022. There's no route Johnson can't run, no area of the field he can't dominate as a route runner."
Look for Canales to rely on Johnson's skills as he tries to get Young on track.
Johnson, who finished last year as WR45, currently resides at WR41 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. He is going in that same spot in best-ball drafts at Underdog and BestBall 10s.
And Young?
There comes a point in Super Flex drafts where job security is the most important quality in your QB3.
Young has that at next to no cost . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Those looking to scratch their itch for NFL Draft-related content will find oodles at Footballguys.
In particular, Christian Williams' Mock Draft 7.0 and Bloom's Pre-Draft 100 will help set the table nicely. The 2024 Rookie Draft Guide and individual Scouting Report articles on the top prospects are available. We'll also have coverage in real-time, both written content on the site and video on the Footballguys YouTube channel, so enjoy all that throughout the week and weekend.
Otherwise, I appreciate your time and look forward to meeting you back in this spot in two weeks for more developing stories that need to be on your radar. See you then.
