In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and a weekly Outlier.
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. The first three weeks were rough, but Week 4 and Week 5 delivered. Since then, it’s been hit and miss -- and Week 8 was more of the same. Let’s review:
- I was in on Bears QB Caleb Williams going up against the Ravens in Baltimore. In predicting a QB15 finish or better, I acknowledged that Williams has been hit or miss. "The hits have been fantastic," I wrote, "which makes the misses all the more horrible." I can once again confirm this is true. Williams finished as QB18. It's a horrible miss. ❌
- I was out on Patriots QB Drake Maye going up against a Cleveland defense that's held opposing signal callers in check for most of this season. Given the matchup, I predicted the second-year man would fall short of his QB7 projection. Instead, it was the Browns who fell short of their own standard. They didn't just fail to keep Maye in check; he destroyed them to finish the week as QB1 overall. Memo to self: Maye is no longer eligible to be out on. Ever. This was a miss I'm dead set against repeating. ❌
- I was in on Texans RB Woody Marks, who was projected to finish as RB24 against the 49ers. Even with C.J. Stroud, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, and Xavier Hutchinson being productive enough to keep the Texans from fully leaning into Marks, he still got enough to make good on my prediction that he'd finish inside the top 20. Marks was RB15. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Steelers RB Jaylen Warren, whose big games this season have come against lesser opposition. Conversely, he has struggled in more challenging matchups, such as the Packers. Warren was projected to finish as RB13. I predicted he'd fall outside the top 20. Warren was RB28. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, even if it seemed a bit counterintuitive to be in on a wideout for the quarterback I was out on. Fortunately, Maye was amazing. Unfortunately, so was Kayshon Boutte. Diggs' teammate finished the week as WR12. Diggs, who was projected to finish as WR24, finished as WR37. My prediction was a top 20 effort. I picked the wrong Patriot receiver. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle, who was projected to finish as WR10 against the Falcons even though he was held to single-digit scoring in Cleveland the week before. Atlanta was among the league's top defenses heading into this one. They didn't play like it. Tua Tagovailoa tossed four touchdowns, including one to Waddle, who finished the day as WR5. I predicted he'd finish in WR2 territory. Another big miss. ❌
- I was in on Buccaneers TE Cade Otton in a decent matchup against the Saints. But it wasn't so much the matchup as the role I was interested in. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out, I was hoping for the workload Otton received under similar circumstances last year. He was projected to finish as TE18. I expected a finish in TE1 territory. It didn't help that Titans tight ends Gunnar Helm and Chig Okonkwo hadn't finished ahead of him. Otton was TE14 on the week. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Commanders TE Zach Ertz, who faced a tough matchup against the Chiefs without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. The veteran tight end had come up short in two other appearances with Daniels' backup, Marcus Mariota, and I expected him to fall short of his TE17 projection. He finished as TE23. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Titans WR Chimere Dike, I expected a growing role, a favorable matchup, and Calvin Ridley's ongoing absence to carry him past his WR56 projection. I characterized him as a sneaky WR3 lottery ticket. He finished the week as WR15. A big hit. ✅
Sadly, it was another sub-.500 week. But I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe Cleveland's defense, Boutte, and those pesky Tennessee tight ends -- for keeping me from meeting my objective.
Here's where we stand after eight weeks:
Week 8: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 33 hits; 39 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. After falling back a bit this week, I'm batting .458. Let's see if we get back on an upward trajectory in Week 9.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jared Goff, Detroit vs. Minnesota
Let's see. The Lions have scored the third-most points in the NFL (215), behind only the (amazing) Indianapolis Colts and the defenseless Dallas Cowboys. Detroit's 30-point-per-game clip owes much to a strong rushing attack, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
But the passing attack shouldn't be overlooked here. Especially with this week's game being played in Detroit.
As Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano pointed out this week, Goff tends to dominate within the friendly confines of Ford Field, as he's averaged more than 20 fantasy points in his last 20 home starts.
"What's more," Fabiano added, "he's put up 18-plus points in 11 of those games."
Minnesota's defense, under coordinator Brian Flores, is an aggressive, high-pressure unit that gives opposing quarterbacks problems. But Goff excels at reading defenses and switching into plays that give the Lions a significant advantage.
He was able to get the best of the Vikings' defense last season, and Flores is having a tougher time with his unit this year.
According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, since Week 4, Minnesota has allowed the highest yards per attempt and passer rating to opposing signal callers. During that stretch, they have also given up the highest completion percentage and highest passer rating to downfield passing. Brown added that Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (42 percent).
That might not help them this week, as Goff also has the highest yards per attempt and the second-highest passer rating against the blitz.
Overall, Goff has completed 152 of 203 passes for a 74.3 completion percentage. He has thrown for 1,631 yards with a 15-3 TD to interception ratio.
In addition, as Enzo Flojo of Clutch Points noted, unlike most teams, head coach Dan Campbell likes his team to take possession on the opening kickoff and attack from the start. There is no holding back with the Lions offense, and Goff has excellent receiving weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, tight end Sam LaPorta, and Gibbs.
Bigger picture, the Vikings have allowed opposing QBs to score nearly 25 fantasy points per game in their last two outings, second-most in the NFL.
Bottom line: Goff's Footballguys projection calls for a QB15 finish with 18.17 points, but with home-field advantage and a vulnerable secondary, I expect him to outperform it.
Out: C.J. Stroud, Houston vs. Denver
As I noted in this week's Fantasy Notebook, Stroud turned back the clock in the Texans' Week 8 win over the 49ers, flashing the skills we saw in his remarkable 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.
Making effective use of short, quick-hitting passes, Stroud was confident and decisive.
Even without starting receivers Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, reserves Xavier Hutchinson (five receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown), Jaylin Noel (six catches, 52 yards), and Jayden Higgins (four catches for 34 yards with a touchdown) got the job done, continuously winning at the line of scrimmage to give Stroud easy targets.
Getting the ball out quickly built Stroud's confidence and helped avoid pressures that have killed Houston this season. That confidence built, Stroud stood tall when San Francisco did get pressure -- 6 of 7 for 103 yards and a TD under pressure. But it was less pressure than we've seen to date.
In fact, the offensive line allowed a season-low 21.4 percent pressure rate against the 49ers in Week 8.
Can they pull that off again this week against the Broncos, who currently lead the league with 34 sacks?
Beyond that, Denver has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs -- with Dak Prescott scoring a meager 6.6 against them last week.
Bottom line: Stroud's Footballguys projection calls for a QB14 finish with 18.28 points. He falls outside the top 20 this week.