In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. Make no mistake: The first three weeks were tough. Week 1 was horrible; Week 2 was better, but Week 3 was another lowlight. The good news? I followed up a strong showings in Week 4 and Week 5. Week 6 went well, too. What about Week 7? Let's review:
I was in on Packers QB Jordan Love against the Cardinals, believing the matchup and Green Bay's recent efforts to open the offense up with deep passes would serve the QB well. After taking a few shots, Love ultimately came through for the Packers. But not for me. I predicted Love would be a top-15 fantasy quarterback. He finished as QB17 -- exactly as projected. A miss. ❌
I was out on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who was projected to deliver QB4 numbers. I felt the Vikings would contain him and predicted Hurts would fall outside the top five. Turns out I was right, Hurts finished as QB7, but it had more to do with surprisingly huge performances from Bo Nix, Jaxson Dart, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford than it did Minnesota's defense. Still, it's a hit. ✅
I was in on Saints RB Alvin Kamara, who was projected to finish as RB20 in a super-favorable matchup against the Bears. Even with his backfield mate Kendre Miller leaving the game early with a torn ACL, Kamara could get rolling in this one. I predicted he would exceed his projection. He did not, finishing as RB37. Bleh. A miss. ❌
I was out on Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr., who was projected to finish as RB19 against the Rams in London. I didn't like the matchup or Etienne's recent decrease in production and believed he would finish outside the top 20. He was RB35 on the week. A much-needed hit. ✅
I was in on Broncos WR Courtland Sutton, in a favorable matchup against the Giants. He was projected to finish as WR15. I acknowledged that Sutton has been boom or bust. I thought this would be a boom. Little did I know Denver would be shut out through three quarters and Bo Nix would do the bulk of the work himself as the Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter. Sutton did outperform his point projection, but he failed to exceed that WR15 finish. He was WR22. A miss. ❌
I was out on Giants WR Wan'Dale Robinson, who faced a very tough matchup in the Broncos' defense. His Footballguys WR21 projection wasn't too far out of line, but I expected him to fall short to finish outside WR2 territory. Robinson and the Giants had other ideas, and they delivered beyond expectations. Robinson finished the week as WR20. A miss. ❌
I was in on Jets TE Mason Taylor going up against Carolina in one of the most favorable matchups possible at his position. In addition, Garrett Wilson sat out with a knee injury. I expected volume and the matchup to allow Taylor, who was projected for a TE16 finish, to wind up in TE1 territory. Justin Fields had other ideas. Taylor was TE27 on the week. A miss. ❌
I was out on Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson, who went into Sunday's game against the Eagles with a pretty low -- TE15 -- projection. I didn't think he'd fare even that well. He didn't -- but it wasn't by much. Hockenson was TE16 on the day. It was close. But still a hit. ✅
My Outlier of the Week was Washington WR Luke McCaffrey, who was projected to finish as WR71 with 5.57 points in a plus matchup against the Cowboys -- with Deebo Samuel Sr. and Terry McLaurin both ruled out. I felt it wouldn't take many opportunities to beat that. McCaffrey got two opportunities. He caught neither target. He finished as WR125 with zero points. A miss. ❌
Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe Josh Jacobs' success running the ball, Kamara's inability to do the same, and Justin Fields (because it seems like the thing to do this week) -- for keeping me from having a more successful outcome.
Here's where we stand after seven weeks:
Week 7: 3 hits; 6 misses.
Season: 29 hits; 34 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. After falling back a bit this week, I'm batting .460. Let's see if we get back on an upward trajectory in Week 8.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please refer to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Caleb Williams, Chicago @ Baltimore
Two things: First, Williams currently sits at QB14 in total points and QB13 in points per game, with 17.8.
The other thing is he's been hit or miss.
The hits have been fantastic, which makes the misses all the more horrible.
In six appearances this season (the Bears were off Week 5), the second-year man has three top-10 fantasy appearances, including a QB2 overall finish in Week 3. He scored 29.1 points against the Cowboys that week. He also had a QB9 finish with 24.2 points in Week 1 and a QB10 finish with 19.9 points in Week 6.
Williams' other three games, however, were not great as he finished as QB20 or lower in each. It was a 17-point QB20 finish in Week 2, a QB24 effort with 11.8 points in Week 4, and last week, he was held to single-digit points (4.7), good for a QB27 finish against the Saints.
An improving rushing attack has been a factor in some of the poor showings -- including last week.
So he's due for a positive outcome, and the Ravens just might be the team to allow it.
Baltimore has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (22.5) and third-most passing touchdowns (23) to QBs this season. Three different signal callers have 27 or more points against the Ravens.
Plus, as NFL Network's Michael F. Florio notes, the Bears have done a much better job protecting Williams in 2025, so it's favorable that the Ravens generate pressure at the fifth-lowest rate.
Again, last week's tilt with the Saints was also a good matchup for Williams, and he fell flat.
Bottom line: The Ravens' defense showed some signs of life in slowing Matthew Stafford in their last outing two weeks ago, but I still expect Williams to finish as QB15 or better, slightly ahead of his Footballguys QB18 (15.88 points) projection.
Out: Drake Maye, New England vs. Cleveland
Yes. I am aware that Maye is playing "lights out" football. I said as much in this week's Fantasy Notebook.
He was especially good last Sunday, completing a career-high 91.3 percent of his passes in Tennessee. Maye was particularly efficient on passes over 10 air yards, completing seven of his nine attempts for 149 yards and two touchdowns. With 222 passing yards and a 135.9 passer rating, Maye became the third player under the age of 24 with 200-plus passing yards and a 100-plus passer rating in six consecutive games.
Maye also added 62 rushing yards on eight scrambles, giving him 193 scramble rush yards this season. His 200 total rushing yards this year rank fourth among all QBs.
The second-year man is currently QB5 overall, averaging 20.9 points per game. Dial that back to the last six games, and Maye is QB3 with a 21.9-point per game average.
So let's review: Playing at a remarkable level, check. Boasts the mobility that raises his weekly floor, check. Six teams on bye, limiting possible high-end options, check.
But the matchup this week? It's not great.
As always, being out on a player doesn't mean I'm looking to bench him in season-long. That's absolutely not the case with Maye.
But should we adjust expectations? Yes.
As Cockroft pointed out, Maye's next two matchups -- against Cleveland this week and Atlanta next week -- are the toughest on his 2025 schedule.
This week, Maye goes up against a Browns defense that's been very hard on fantasy QBs. Since Lamar Jackson scored 26.30 points against them in Week 2, the Browns' defense has limited opposing QB starters to 11.3 points per game -- the second-fewest in the NFL.
In addition, Cockroft points out the Patriots are favored by more than a score, so Maye also might not need to do much in this contest.
Bottom line: Maye's Footballguys projection is QB8 with 20.02 points. Again, I'm not benching Drake. But I'm not looking at him as a great DFS tournament or head-to-head play this week, either, because of the matchup here. Yes, Maye produces. No, he does not produce a QB8 finish.
Running Back
In: Woody Marks, Houston vs. San Francisco
Watching Houston's loss in Seattle on Monday night, it looked very much like Marks moved ahead of Nick Chubb and into the lead role in this backfield.
As Brown noted, the rookie enjoyed a 61 percent snap rate, a 35.2 percent route share, both of the Texans' red-zone rushing attempts, and a 10.2 percent target share. Marks had 13 touches, 35 total yards, and a score -- his third in his past three games -- to finish as the RB16 for the week.
The obvious question is, will this role persist?
Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke notes that Marks outsnapped Chubb 15 to 11 in the first half. The Texans were playing from behind throughout the second half, so Marks dominated those snaps.
But Dare Ogunbowale took the majority of passing-down snaps for the first time since Week 2.
As Jahnke suggested, if the Texans continue to use that three-man rotation at running back, it will be very difficult to trust any of the players from a fantasy perspective.
That's fair. But the trend has been clear.
NFL Network's Marcas Grant pointed out that Marks has played more than half of the snaps and had more than half of the team's rushing attempts in two of the last three games. He also offers more in the passing game with 11 targets over his last three contests.
And this week?
Nico Collins is ruled out with a concussion. Christian Kirk will miss his fourth game this season -- and second in a row -- with a hamstring injury. Dalton Schultz is a reliable asset whom C.J. Stroud trusts, but he's not a dynamic play-making threat. Xavier Hutchinson and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel will try to provide that at wideout, but Marks has already demonstrated it.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry since Nick Bosa was lost for the season, including 1.5 yards before contact per carry (sixth-highest in the NFL during that span). Better still, as SI.com's Michael Fabiano noted, the 49ers have allowed six backs to score 10-plus points against them, including four who have finished with 16 or more points.
With Houston struggling for answers on offense, Marks can be that.
Bottom line: Marks' Footballguys projection calls for an RB24 finish and 11.17 points. I expect the Texans to lean into him, giving Marks the volume necessary to finish inside the top 20 for a second-straight week.