The Top 10: Week 4

Featuring fantasy-oriented insights rooted in film-driven football analysis to provide specific takeaways to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 4 Matt Waldman Published 09/23/2025

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MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

This week's Top 10 has a theme..."It." The necessary skill or skills to meet or exceed expectations. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 3'S CLIFF'S NOTES

  1. Tetairoa McMillan is missing part of "it" -- the part that's the mark of a true primary receiver.
  2. Tyreek Hill still has "it." He's paired with a quarterback who doesn't. This could change midseason.
  3. Brian Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence have misplaced "it." Let's hope Shane Waldron hasn't hidden it.
  4. Quentin Johnston and the Chargers have developed "it." 
  5. Marvin Harrison Jr. must figure "it" out.
  6. Jordan Love may never completely get "it."
  7. Nick Chubb got much of "it" back, but his offensive line is doing him few favors.
  8. Bryce Huff has a ton of "it" as a pass rusher. Ask Kyle Shanahan and look at the tape.
  9. Don't Be Deluded: Thoughts on players and narratives after three weeks of football. 
  10. Rentals: Players with short- and long-term fantasy appeal. 

1. Tetairoa McMillan Is Missing Part of "It"

At least right now, McMillan has yet to show the true hallmark of a legitimate NFL primary receiver: Defeating tight man-to-man coverage. This is what separates Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Malik Nabers from athletic secondary receivers who can win contested plays against tight coverage, but aren't top-flight separators against tight man-to-man and press coverage. 

McMillan may be one of the leading rookie receivers in the box score, but he's getting it done mostly against  zone and on plays schemed to make him the only target and to get him wide open with the help of others. 

Primary receivers get this assistance as well, but they are also match-up players against top corners when it's time. This dropped pass below is on a route where McMillan isn't pressed, but he's facing tight coverage. The route is not compelling, and the attack of the ball is something that has been problematic with McMillan's game in college. 

It's just one play. That's what Panthers fans and McMillan admirers will often say. I wish this were true. It's simply the first time they've noticed this, or someone has pointed these flaws out to them. 

Don't consider these flaws as warnings of McMillan becoming a bust. He's a good ball-winner more often than not. He also has quality skills after the catch. His value as a zone route runner and tight-coverage ball winner should be enough for him to develop into a valuable fantasy asset...as a WR2 or WR3. 

For McMillan to meet the expectations of a primary WR1 -- and a fantasy option with top-15 value during his prime years -- he must develop more nuance as a route runner against press-man and man-to-man coverage. I didn't see it at Arizona, and I haven't seen it thus far as a rookie. 

There may come a time this year that opposing teams decide to take McMillan away by having a top corner follow McMillan around the field. If McMillan can't show consistent skill to win in this area within the next 15-30 games, you'll be hoping he develops into a perennial WR2-WR3. 

How difficult is it to develop these route skills? It's not impossible, but if McMillan doesn't show them as he sees more man coverage this year, it might take 2-3 seasons. It took Davante Adams that long. When he figured it out, he became an elite player. 

It will depend largely on whether McMillan understands where he must apply himself during the offseason -- something Marvin Harrison Jr. has not shown (see No. 5).

2. Tyreek Hill Still Has It (His QB Doesn't)

Stating the obvious: The Dolphins are in trouble, and if there's a player they might set free by midseason, it would be Hill. The Steelers showed initial interest but no longer, according to Mike Florio, who reports the NFL's investigation into potential domestic violence was the likely trigger. 

The Chiefs weren't shy about acquiring Hill in the first place. They also weren't shy about reuniting with Kareem Hunt, who, according to a source of mine with connections to Brett Veach, was sent packing from Kansas City the first time for lying to the Chiefs about the incident and not the incident itself. 

It stands to reason the Chiefs would be amenable to reuniting with Hill: 

  • They have a clear understanding of the player off the field. 
  • Hill has years of experience in Andy Reid's offense.
  • Hill will likely be thrilled to be reunited with Patrick Mahomes II, who has a legitimate NFL arm.
  • The Chiefs could field Hill, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy as their starting trio with no problem.

This scenario is the best possible outcome for fantasy GMs with Hill on their roster, because there will be significantly less adjustment time needed for Hill compared to other potential destinations. One of the biggest questions for fantasy GMs is whether Hill is the same player the Chiefs had before they sent him to Miami. 

From what I've seen, the only thing missing from Hill's game is a quarterback who can deliver accurate passes with velocity when it's required. Hill's erratic off-field life (from what we know superficially through the media) makes acquiring him a gamble. 

Still, with Pittsburgh dropping out, Kansas City is the best possible destination and a team with a true need right now that can still benefit when their designated starters return to the field. If you're going to gamble, Hill's upside makes him a compelling but volatile bet. 

3. Brian Thomas Jr. and Trevor Lawrence of Misplaced "It"

Last week, I studied Thomas' game against the Bengals and the history of his targets against contact. Here's what I saw: 

  • One alligator-armed target he could have caught in the end zone. 
  • One caught ball where he was pushed past the end line. 
  • An underthrown sideline fade that could have led him downfield for a TD.
  • A fade where Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. weren't on the same page with the placement.

If Thomas caught two of these four targets, the panic heading into Week 3 wouldn't exist. There'd be minor concerns, at best. Trevor Lawrence acknowledged after Week 2 that he and Thomas are still acclimating to the offense. 

This week wasn't much better. They weren't on the same page with target placement, and there were forced and unforced errors from Thomas. 

My best guess as to what's going on, based on the past two weeks of film, is that Thomas and Lawrence are still making sense of this Liam Coen-Shane Waldron offense, and the details that aren't locked in have led to these errors. It's what happens when players overthink. 

My greatest concern is Waldron's involvement in the offense. If it's Coen's system and Waldron is merely executing it to the letter, I wouldn't worry. If Waldron is installing the system and game plans with the same lack of detail he showed at Chicago, it may prove difficult for Lawrence and Thomas to ever get on the same page this year. 

Based on what I've seen, the errors are addressable and unlikely due to any systemic lapses from Waldron. Fantasy GMs should ride out Thomas' downs. He'll earn enough targets that he'll still give big plays--just not to the level you hoped...

4. Quentin Johnston and the Chargers Have Developed "It"

We all know that Johnston's size, strength, speed, route-running, and open-field prowess are assets of his game. We came to learn last year that his tracking and attack of downfield targets was no bueno and an obstacle in his development path. 

Brandon Angelo suggested Johnston would be a much better flanker or slot than a split end, responsible for winning contested plays and fades in the vertical game. The obstacle in Johnston's way to that job was Ladd McConkey. 

Fast-forward to training camp, and Jeff Bell, who covers the Chargers for our site, relayed reports that Johnston was making progress with his development. Although the attack of downfield targets wasn't perfect and there were drops at times, there were also clear displays of better technique and results. 

Progress. 

Three weeks into the season, Johnston has delivered as a top producer among fantasy receivers. The Chargers have been successfully leveraging Johnston's strengths: He's been a vertical threat who has been asked to run under deep balls (which he could always do) and win shorter targets on the move, where he can leverage his ball-carrying excellence. 

This week, we got to see what Bell was referencing about Johnston's development during training camp. 

I love seeing this from Johnston. He's clearly working on this area of his game, and he's getting better. This single play needs to become one of a chain of consistent results, but it is progress. 

Sidenote: I root for players to improve. I want players to outgrow my scouting reports. You can't spend the time I spend watching players, studying the game, and learning what it takes to play well in the NFL and root against these guys. 

Johnston is making progress in a passing offense that's off to a hot start. We may see targets and production eventually tilt to other players as the season progresses, but I'm not betting against Johnston as a fantasy asset for the rest of 2025. 

5. Marvin Harrison Jr. Must Figure "It" Out

The most sobering thing I can take away from Harrison's play this year is that he hasn't worked on the right things during the offseason. Many of us can relate to a period in our lives when we applied ourselves to learn something, only to discover that we had allocated our time and effort to the wrong thing. 

I don't think Harrison has realized that adding muscle to his frame was him working on the wrong thing. What would have been the right thing to work on? Tracking and proper attack of targets while facing the quarterback.

As I've noted since 2023, these problems have been rearing their ugly head in his game, and they've been magnified, as predicted, in the NFL. 

While I don't agree with the poster's overall conclusion about Harrison, the fact that Harrison didn't make these issues his top priority is a concern. It shows a lack of self-scouting and management of his own game. 

I can see how Harrison found himself in this hole. His dad was a bucket-catching, clap-attacking, underhand tracker of most targets. He was the exceptional case of a Hall of Fame star who won in this fashion.

If he learned a lot from his dad, he learned bad habits that his dad transcended, but he cannot. Harrison is not his dad. He's bigger, stronger, not as fast, and should learn to maximize his physical assets. 

I'm rooting for Harrison, but I'm afraid we may see these issues all year. Combine these failings with Kyler Murray's mercurial style of quarterbacking and leadership, and this could get ugly. The drops were bad; not being on the same page on a route was a compounding factor.

I don't have any intel on what I'm about to speculate: Murray and Harrison feel like a duo where one could go to the media to complain about their relationship. If this happens, expect an eventual trade for Harrison. 

It could be the best thing long-term. 

6. Jordan Love May Never Completely Get "It"

The only quarterback I have scouted in college who made as many poor decisions as Love and matured beyond it to become a star has been Josh Allen. The difference between Allen and Love is that Allen showed moments of integrated skills, techniques, and concepts sandwiched between bone-headed displays of hubris. 

 "Yes, Josh! That right there! Just. Keep. Doing. That...

 Please, God...Oh, hell, not again."

As I've shared repeatedly over the past five years, Allen has become the outlier as a talented project who developed himself into an MVP-caliber star. 

Love never showed those moments like Allen in college. He showed athletic ability and a massive arm. Techniques and concepts of good quarterbacking at Utah State? Not nearly as often or as complete as those moments we saw from Allen. 

To Love's credit, the time on the bench behind Aaron Rodgers has proven fruitful. He's not usually the errant wild child he was at Utah State. Still, there are moments he drifts in that direction.

It takes a lot of pressure for it to happen. Much like what we saw in Cleveland on Sunday. 

Consistent pressure brings out the worst in every quarterback. What concerns me is that Love's worst is like the most depraved region of Quentin Tarantino's imagination played out on an NFL field. 

With Jayden Reed out for a while and a pair of offensive linemen banged up, Love becomes a match-up start for the near future. Defenses that can rush four with success could bring out the worst in Love.

7. Nick Chubb Got Much of "It" Back

Too bad Chubb's offensive line isn't doing him many favors. The strength, the agility, the short-area quickness, and the initial burst are still there in Chubb's game. 

Woody Marks has been workmanlike. Most of his gains have come on passing down and distances against boxes expecting the Texans to throw the ball. 

Chubb is a strong matchup play against teams with poor offenses and/or porous defenses, which could lead to game scripts that result in Chubb receiving 15-20 carries. Unfortunately, the only two teams that fit that description right now -- the Raiders and Cardinals -- aren't on the schedule until mid-December. 

By that point, Joe Mixon could be back. If the Texans' offensive line was better, Chubb would earn consideration as Comeback Player of the Year based on what I've seen in bad conditions. 

Chubb is a capable flex against the Titans in Weeks 4 and 10, the Seahawks in Week 6, and the Jaguars in Week 9. Otherwise, you're hoping for a miracle along the Texans' front. 

8. Bryce Huff Has A Ton of "It" As a Pass Rusher

This is where I considered discussing Quinshon Judkins, but I'm saving him for this week's Gut Check on Wednesday night. Huff caught my eye in San Francisco, especially as I combed IDP waiver wires for a talented pass rusher in two of my leagues. 

Adding to my excitement was Kyle Shanahan's commentary on Huff. In June, he compared Huff to Dee Ford, a fantastic edge rushing specialist, and noted that Huff's failures in Philadelphia had more to do with scheme fit. 

More recently, Robert Salah called Huff a closer, and Shanahan noted how rare it is to earn that label. 

Huff fits the 49ers' system, and after a strong Week 2, he made some impressive plays against Kyler Murray in Week 3. 

Nick Bosa tore his ACL on Sunday, which puts Huff in a position to lead this pass-rushing rotation. Although it's easy to think that missing Bosa will hurt Huff, we saw Huff have repeat success against left tackles. He wasn't cleaning up on Bosa's work from the right side. 

If Huff is still available in IDP, he's a priority addition. 

9. Don't Be Deluded

  • Ladd McConkey will get his as the season progresses. The Chargers are playing a lot of two-route combinations with McConkey and Keenan Allen breaking in similar areas of the field and forcing zone defenders to choose one to flow toward. McConkey has been that choice. This will evolve. 
  • Najee Harris outplayed Omarion Hampton before his Achilles injury. He was more creative in tight spaces while also showing finishing power.  

Harris was an excellent complement to Hampton's straight-line hammer. The closest back in style to Harris on the roster is Kimani Vidal, who is on the practice squad. Nyheim Hines is also there, but unlikely the player he once was. The loss of Harris will be a gain for Hampton's fantasy GMs. Still, if the Chargers make good on their preseason claim of a split backfield no matter what, Vidal or a veteran free agent might be the sneaky pick.

  • Kayshon Boutte: The third-year Patriots' receiver looks legit. He drew a pass interference foul from his defender in the second quarter that put New England at the Steelers' five-yard line. He also had a nice 20-yard gain on a dig. He's earning impactful targets -- just not enough of them. Until further notice, it's time to treat Boutte as a bye-week play you can rotate on and off your roster. 
  • Brashard Smith: Sometimes listening to the broadcast crew is worthwhile. If Cris Collinsworth was accurate with what he shared on Sunday night, Andy Reid doesn't think Smith is big enough to become a significant contributor to the Chiefs' ground game this year. It renders Smith a gadget play and likely droppable. 
  • Caleb Williams: I've been a staunch supporter of Williams' skills and likely development into a top quarterback. Nothing about his year's developments has changed my point of view. Sunday's game was a great box score performance, but don't be deluded, Dallas' defense is awful. It's zone without a pass rush, which means it's a toothless unit, and Williams merely did what was expected against fatally wounded prey.
  • Luther Burden III: The rookie receiver's snaps are trending in the right direction. So is Burden's output with his snaps. Expect Burden's role to gradually increase over the next two to three weeks. I'm betting we'll see Burden rotate with Olamide Zaccheaus and DJ Moore and earn just enough touches that he becomes a viable flex with weekly WR3 upside if there are no setbacks with his performance.

10. Rentals

Short-Term Only

  • T.J. Hockenson: As mentioned here last week, Hockenson's value with McCarthy is tanked, but Carson Wentz finds the TE and will likely take shortcuts to lean on the veteran in ways the young McCarthy can't. 
  • Emari Demercado: With James Conner gone, expect Demercado to earn Trey Benson's previous workload. Demercado offers big-play potential and consistent decision-making.  
  • Antonio Gibson: I don't think Rhamondre Stevenson is losing touches due to his two-fumble game against the Steelers. I do think Stevenson could lose touches if he does it again next week. I also think the Patriots are slowly discovering that TreVeyon Henderson may not have the power to function efficiently between the tackles this year behind this offensive line. Gibson does. 

Short-Term with Long-Term Potential

  • Waiver-Wire receivers with deep-threat potential facing the Cowboys' defense: Calling all receivers on the Packers, Jets, Panthers, and Commanders. Even the scrubs with speed if you need a desperation start.
  • Oronde Gadsden II: The rookie showed good hands as a zone option this week. I was impressed with this aspect of his game and that he was comfortable with the routes assigned to him. 
  • Damien Martinez: The Seahawks released Martinez from their practice squad last week. He's a talented big back with the skill to win inside and outside. He just lost out to George Holani for the No. 3 spot this summer. Watch where he lands. 
  • Isaiah Bond: The rookie made an impressive catch over the middle behind his break path against the Packers this week. I don't think he takes much from Harold Fannin Jr. -- more on this in this week's Gut Check -- but Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy need to watch out. 
  • Parker Washington: While we didn't see a significant growth with Washington's usage from Week 2 to Week 3, Washington showed more of play-making toughness in the middle of the field this week. He's a Trevor Lawrence favorite and is likely endearing himself as a legitimate No. 3 for the Jaguars. Stay tuned.
  • Ollie Gordon II: The rookie's downhill style and power resemble a young Mike Anderson. We'll see if Gordon's vaunted athletic ability transcends that comparison as he earns more playing time. He will get it, too, because his power provides an element this offense needs. 

Until next week, good luck!

Follow Matt Waldman on Twitter: @mattwaldman

YouTube Channel: RSP Film Room

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fantasy football 2025 Matt Waldman Footballguys Top 10 week 4 tetairoa mcmillan Nick Chubb Tyreek Hill Brian Thomas Jr. Quentin Johnston Marvin Harrison Jr. Trevor Lawrence Jordan Love Bryce Huff the top 10
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