Do you feel that? The crackle in the air? That slightest of chill breezes?
Winter is coming.
Dear God, I wish. Who knew that "America 250" meant that would be the temperature outside this past week. It's like it was a weird cosmic exercise in showing us how hot dogs feel before we eat them.
Still ate them. Because they're tasty.
Winter may not be here for a while. But fantasy draft season is just around the corner. And for managers more interested in being Joey Chestnut than one of Nathan's Finest, the time to prepare for draft season is now.
Nope. That's not weird at all. All rational people slam dogs into water and then…yep. Perfectly normal.
As you of course know by now by reading my brilliance, I am all about helping fantasy managers dominate their leagues with my infallible advice—even if it means reducing my own edge this season against mere mortals.
I'm a helper. I care. And on the rarest of occasions when I'm wrong, it's only because I was incorrect. Not my fault. Happens to us all.
So, Treasured Reader (hugs), as we start to really get into it, I'm going to win your leagues for you. This group of players aren't just values. Or steals. They are the sort of felonious fantasy peculation that is illegal in Rhode Island.
Joking aside, these are the players who will win leagues in 2026. With absolute certainty.
And that comes from an award-winning fantasy analyst who hasn't lost a league since 2025.
Who even remembers that far back?
Must-Have League-Winning Fantasy Picks
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
Last year Lawrence blossomed in Liam Coen's offense in Jacksonville—over 4,000 passing yards, a career-high 29 touchdown passes, 359 rushing yards (top-10 among all quarterbacks) and the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. Lawrence was especially productive down the stretch--from Week 10 on, no player amassed more fantasy points at the position.
Lawrence is now in his second year in an offense that has produced top-five fantasy numbers from both Lawrence and Baker Mayfield. Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr.. have the potential to be one of the league's better wideout trios. And questions in the run game could lead to more pass-heavy game scripts.
Lawrence has top-five fantasy upside available in the eighth round on average.
QB Kyler Murray, Minnesota
Boy, if J.J. McCarthy beats out Murray for the starting job in Minnesota, there are going to be quite a few fantasy pundits with egg on their faces. Luckily, we have a secret weapon in that regard.
McCarthy stinks. Wait. That's not a secret.
Granted, trusting Murray also requires the belief he's more the player from the first few seasons of his career than the last few. But we have seen Vikings head coach Kevin O' Connell work wonders at the position before—he turned Sam Darnold's career after all.
Minnesota's wideout room is loaded with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings. Murray has surpassed 500 rushing yards three times, including almost 900 in 2020.
That year, he was second among all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
RB Cam Skattebo, NY Giants
We saw a glimpse of what Skattebo brings to the table last year—over a month-long stretch from Week 4 to Week 7 last year, Skattebo was a top-10 PPR running back. But then the rookie fractured his tibia and dislocated his ankle, and just like that, happy fun time was over.
Reports on Skattebo's rehab have been positive, with new Giants head coach John Harbaugh recently telling reporters that Skattebo is "a top-tier back, and he's planning on playing that way this year."
When Skattebo is healthy, he was the clear-cut lead back in Brian Daboll's offense, and there has been little to indicate that won't be the case under Harbaugh once again in 2026. Yes, Skattebo's injury adds a measure of risk to targeting him on draft day.
But clear-cut RB1 upside available in the back half of RB2 territory makes Skattebo worth that risk.
RB David Montgomery, Houston
There isn't a running back in fantasy in 2026 this analyst is more interested in at cost than Montgomery. That may well mean the 29-year-old is doomed, but whatever.
Last year admittedly wasn't Montgomery's best work—career-lows in carries and rushing yards with the Detroit Lions. But Montgomery isn't in Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs anymore—and in Houston he appears headed toward a featured back's workload in 2026.
Two years ago, Joe Mixon was on a 300-touch pace with the Texans and ranked 10th in PPR points per game among running backs. The only time to date that Montgomery has garnered 300 touches was with the Chicago Bears in 2020.
That year, Montgomery topped 1,500 total yards and was a top-five fantasy option at his position.
Sound appealing?
RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee
Fantasy managers like youth. Fantasy managers like sizzle. Fantasy managers like upside.
Fantasy managers don't so much like Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard.
That "meh" attitude toward Pollard is misplaced, though. It's not like the 29-year-old was terrible in 2025. Pollard's 4.5 yards per carry was his best mark since 2022. He set a career high in rushing yards. Pollard has 1,000 rushing yards in four straight seasons and 1,000 total yards in five straight. He's also missed all of two games the past four years.
Sure, Tyjae Spears may poach some passing-game work—until he gets hurt. Then Pollard will once again be a three-down workhorse, getting around 300 total touches and finishing well inside RB2 territory.
Boring values are values nonetheless.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay
That's right. This writer is banging the drum for Egbuka...again. My arms aren't close to being tired yet.
We have already seen glimpses of what Egbuka can do: the former Ohio State star came roaring out the gate as a rookie. Over the first five weeks of last year, only Puka Nacua of the Rams and Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions had more PPR points than Egbuka.
The youngster's numbers tailed off as Tampa's wideout corps got healthy last year, but in 2026 Mike Evans will be catching passes in San Francisco. Chris Godwin Jr. is a 30-year-old receiver with a lengthy injury history.
Egbuka is going to lead the Buccaneers across the board in receiving stats this year. People genuinely underestimate just how good he is.
After his finishes as a top-10 fantasy option in 2026, they won't anymore.
It's breakout time in Tampa. Get in on the party.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Denver
After five years in Miami, Waddle is finally going to have to buy a winter coat. As part of Miami's offseason roster purge, Waddle was dealt to the Denver Broncos. Fantasy interest in Waddle in his new home is lukewarm at best; he's barely being taken inside WR2 territory.
Yes, Waddle's last two years in Miami weren't great, but that had more to do with the quarterback play in Miami than Waddle himself. In 2022, Waddle topped 1,300 receiving yards, led the league in yards per catch at a gaudy 18.1, and finished eighth in PPR points among wide receivers.
Waddle is going to be Bo Nix's top target this year. And there is a legitimate path in fantasy drafts to taking two high-end running backs and then selecting Egbuka and Waddle as your top-two receivers in Rounds 3 and 4.
That is a championship path.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Pittsburgh
Time for another "boring" guy.
There hasn't exactly been a groundswell of fantasy enthusiasm surrounding Pittman since he joined the Steelers via trade in the offseason—his ADP as we head into draft season is outside the top-40 at his position.
Sure, the Steelers aren't exactly the "Greatest Show on Turf"—Pittsburgh was 22nd in the league in passing in 2025. DK Metcalf is still in the Steel City. So is Aaron Rodgers, who is nowhere close to the player he once was.
But the Steelers traded for and then extended Pittman for a reason. At this point in his career, Rodgers is about getting rid of the ball quickly. Shorter throws. And that's more Pittman's skill-set than Metcalf's.
Pittman's 2025 numbers weren't great, but even in that "down" year he was a top-25 PPR receiver—who scored more fantasy points than Metcalf.
Remember who told you when it happens again.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay
Taylor Swift can have Travis Kelce. At the tight end position this year, Tucker Kraft of the Packers is my bae.
You naysayers can doubt our love all you want. Talk about the ACL tear that cut his 2025 season short halfway through. But Kraft led all tight ends in yards per reception last year at 15.3. Found
the end zone six times in eight games. And was third among tight ends in PPR points per game, trailing only Arizona's Trey McBride and San Francisco's George Kittle.
And that could just be the beginning.
From all indications, Kraft will be ready for the season opener in Minnesota. The Packers have plenty of young talent at wide receiver, but the team doesn't have a "go-to" passing-game target.
When (not if, when) Kraft rises up and becomes Jordan Love's top target in Green Bay's offense, the sky is the ceiling.
Like the No. 1 overall tight end in fantasy ceiling.
TE Isaiah Likely, NY Giants
There are three doors at tight end this year. Pay the big bucks for McBride or Brock Bowers, target a second tier that's 4-5 players deep, or wait and draft one of the "Other Guys."
There isn't an "Other Guy" with a higher ceiling than Isaiah Likely of the Giants—and his asking price is already creeping up a bit as a result.
Some reservation regarding Likely is understandable, in that he has never been tasked with being a no-doubt TE1. But John Harbaugh is confident enough he can be that player that he brought Likely with him from Baltimore, and we have seen flashes of high-end fantasy upside from the fifth-year pro.
Likely is going to shatter his career-highs across the board this year. That's not the question. The question is how far up the pass-catching pecking order Likely climbs. Second? First if Malik Nabers isn't right?
Top-five upside with a sticker price outside the top-10.
Likely a wise pick.
Get it?
You're welcome.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.
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