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Howdy Reader,
Welcome In.
I hope your weekend’s rolling along. We’re still riding the post Fourth of July vibes, but you know how it goes: fantasy season waits for no one, and neither do we.
Here’s what we’ve got cooking today:
Bob Harris is back with a fresh edition of the Fantasy Notebook. It's your weekly edge wrapped in insight, updates, and zero fluff. If you want to stay the most informed GM in your league, this is the read.
And Adam Hutchison, our injury expert, takes a deep dive into Wide Receivers coming back from ACL injuries. Which ones are primed to bounce back, and which ones might let you down? The edge is real.
And of course, we've got your News and Notes to keep you dialed in.
Let’s roll,
J
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What's New At Footballguys
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Digging Into WRs Returning From ACL Reconstruction
By Adam Hutchison - Exclusive to Footballguys
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As fantasy football season heats up and Best Ball drafts are in full swing, I wanted to go deeper this offseason into three wide receivers coming off ACL reconstruction (ACLR).
It's a topic I've discussed at length before. Still, I think it's important to review with three prominent wide receivers recovering from this injury in 2025: Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, and Christian Watson.
As a note, this article will focus more on Best Ball as UnderDog, DraftKings, and Drafters drafts are currently taking place. As we learn more information, training camp adjustments can be made for our more traditional redraft leagues. So stay tuned. For now, let's dive into the numbers and see what the data tells us about WRs returning from ACL injuries.
The Impact of ACL Reconstruction on WR Performance
We've all heard the narrative: players struggle the year after ACL surgery. And the data generally supports that.
- On average, WR efficiency metrics decline the year after ACLR.
- Compared to pre-injury levels, most metrics post-injury production dips
Pre vs. Post-ACLR ProductionTargets per GameReceptions per GameYards per GameTarget ShareYards per Route RunFantasy points per GameAvg. Percent Change-9.52-10.16-10.14-17.92-26.59-15.62
But not every WR post-ACLR struggles, which is what piqued my interest in the first place.
- Jordy Nelson averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game after his ACLR.
- Cooper Kupp finished as a top-10 WR in 2019 following his ACL injury the prior season.
- Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, Chris Godwin, and Jeremy Maclin are other WRs who all did well the season following their injury.
These outliers suggest that success is possible, depending on usage, role, and other factors.
Useful Insights
Drilling down to wide receivers who are coming off ACLR, I wanted to see what metrics had the best relationship with fantasy points per game the year after the injury. Below are the metrics and their level of correlation with post-ACLR fantasy points per game...
CONTINUED...
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Jacksonville Jaguars WR/CB Travis Hunter will see reps at wide receiver and cornerback during the same padded practices at training camp, according to chief football strategy officer Tony Khan, who made a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show. During spring practices, Hunter had worked exclusively on one side of the ball on any given day.
Our view: Hunter wants to play full time on both sides of the ball, but he's likely to be primarily a wide receiver. He's a unicorn type of prospect, so Hunter might be able to log more defensive snaps than some think. Hunter has speed, concentration, and body control as a receiver. Opposite Brian Thomas, Hunter should be able to take advantage of coverage. He's a WR3 for Fantasy GMs with plenty of flex appeal.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers remain open to acquiring another wide receiver this offseason to start alongside WR DK Metcalf, according to ESPN's Brooke Pryor.
Our view: We'll see if the Steelers are able to find someone else for QB Aaron Rodgers to throw to...and perhaps a former teammate of Rodgers. This offseason, Rodgers is holding private workouts with teammates like Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson, Scotty Miller, and Ben Skowronek and TE Pat Freiermuth. At this time, Metcalf, Friermuth, and newly acquired TE Jonnu Smith should be the top targets for Rodgers.
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3. NYG: Tyrone Tracy Jr. hoping to be less fumble-prone
Source: GiantsWire - Kevin Hickey
New York Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who finished his rookie campaign with five fumbles, has been working on holding on to the football. He purchased a grip strengthener this offseason that he uses every night and he feels that it has made a difference.
Our view: Tracy is a talented back who can thrive as a runner or receiver out of the backfield, but that doesn't matter if he can't hang onto the ball. In addition to ball security, Tracy needs to improve his pass-protection ability. Rookie Cam Skattebo is there to compete for playing time, and errors by Tracy could open the door for the young power back.
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4. NE: DeMario Douglas may see time at multiple spots
Source: Patriots.com
New England Patriots WR DeMario Douglas could see playing time at multiple spots around the formation this season, according to head coach Mike Vrabel, who added that he has been impressed with his attitude during practices.
Our view: Douglas is a player we like calling '7-11' because he's always open. It doesn't matter where he lines up, Douglas has the quickness to create space against cornerbacks. Stefon Diggs might take up a lot of slot snaps this year, meaning Douglas might be lining up outside to attack defenses. Douglas has a current ADP of WR72, so that means he's a player to keep on waiver wire speed dial in case he hits.
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5. NYG: Theo Johnson excited about 2025
Source: NFL.com - Bobby Kownack
New York Giants TE Theo Johnson said he was feeling more comfortable each game before his injury last season and is looking forward to this season because he believes he is more prepared to play.
Our view: A fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Johnson was an intriguing prospect out of Penn State. Last year as a rookie, Johnson had 29 catches for 331 yards and one touchdown in 12 games. He was placed on Injured Reserve with a foot injury, but now he's healthy and in line to be the top tight end for the Giants. Let's watch to see if he builds strong chemistry with QB Russell Wilson during training camp and the preseason. Fantasy GMs in dynasty leagues might have interest, but in re-draft leagues he's a TE3.
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6. NFL: Chase Claypool details injury
Source: NewYorkUpstate.com - Ryan Talbot
Free-agent WR Chase Claypool (Bills) said he has spent the last year rehabbing from the toe injury that he suffered last August. 'I tore a ligament and a tendon in my second toe and have been rehabbing, working out, and recovering every day for the past year,' Claypool said.
Our view: Claypool was released in mid-August last year with an injury settlement. Now, he's working to be in the best shape of his life....kind of the standard news you get in this type of situation with a veteran trying to return after a missed year due to injury. After 121 catches in his first two pro seasons (2020, 2021), Claypool only has 54 catches over the next three years with a few different teams. His size/speed combination might earn a look from a team who gets desperate at the wide receiver position.
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That’ll do it for today, Friends.
Thanks for making us part of your weekend. Whether you’re grinding dynasty trades, mock drafting from the beach, or just lurking in the group chat waiting to snipe your league’s favorite sleeper, we’re glad you’re here.
Keep an eye out this week... that big project we teased? It’s getting close. I can't wait to share it with you.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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