Cracking DraftKings Week 1

Photo: Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

Sunday morning additions are in red font and reductions are struck through like so.

*Per game stats in this article are from Weeks 1-16 last season*

Favorite Games

Browns at Chiefs - Over/Under 54.5
Cardinals at Titans - Over/Under 54
Jets at Panthers - Over/Under 45
Eagles at Falcons - Over/Under 49
Chargers at Washington - Over/Under 44.5

Favorite Additional Spots

49ers on the road against the Lions - Implied Team Total 27
Seahawks on the road against the Colts - Implied Team Total 26
Jaguars on the road against the Texans - Implied Team Total 25
Packers in Jacksonville against the Saints - Implied Team Total 26.25

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray was on a historic pace last season as a dual-threat prior to a mid-season shoulder injury. No Quarterback offers a higher floor and ceiling combination this week. Murray and new offseason additions, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, get to play in my favorite fantasy game of the week against a Titans defense that ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA last season.

Russell Wilson also provides an awesome solid floor and ceiling combination and gets to play in the dome in Indianapolis. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett getting open on that fast track combined with Wilson's pinpoint accuracy should be a scary thought for the Colts' defense. And with Indianapolis' offense dealing with numerous injury woes, Seattle could have the ball a lot in this one. Even better, look for them to capitalize on their opportunities now that the Colts #1 Cornerback, Xavier Rhodes, has been ruled out.

In three full starts last season, Jalen Hurts ran for over 100 yards once and threw for over 300 yards twice. He was the same dynamic player in college. In four years at Alabama and Oklahoma, he threw for 9,477 yards and 80 TDs and ran for 3,274 yards and 43 TDs. And in his senior season alone at Oklahoma just last year, he threw for 3,851 yards and 32 TDs and ran for 1,298 yards and 20 TDs. Hurts has the dual-threat skill set we look for and gets to play in the dome in Atlanta against a Falcons defense that has struggled mightily to be a respectable unit for years.

This Jets at Panthers game could be hit or miss so there certainly is some risk but the affordable price for both Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold makes their selections more palatable. Wilson was just drafted second overall and has a very fantasy-friendly skill set including mobility and aggressive downfield passing. Wilson gets a Panthers defense that ranked 24th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA last season. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold is no longer being weighed down by Adam Gase and even better, should benefit from playing in a Matt Rhule and Joe Brady-led offense with plentiful weapons. Darnold gets to play at home against a vulnerable Jets defense that ranked 21st in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA last year.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey is the biggest cheat code in fantasy football (26 opportunities per game last year) and gets a Jets defense that ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season.

Dalvin Cook led the entire league in opportunities per game (26.14) last season and took full advantage, becoming one of the main storylines of 2020. He has a great chance to pick up right where he left off against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA and 21st in run DVOA last year.

Alvin Kamara gets all the high-value touches (goal-line carries and targets), Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith both being on Injured Reserve increases Kamara's workload projection, and Jameis Winston being named the starting Quarterback increases Kamara's target projection. Kamara is a decent bet to lead the league in opportunities in week 1. He'll be needed if the Saints hope to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Browns at Chiefs is my favorite game of the week and the matchup sets up favorably for Nick Chubb. The Chiefs defense ranked 22nd in overall DVOA and 31st in run DVOA last season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in football and Chubb is arguably the best pure runner in the game. It makes sense to try to control the clock a bit when playing against Patrick Mahomes II as well.

Najee Harris' guaranteed volume has been telegraphed ever since Pittsburgh made him a first-round selection in the NFL Draft. Locking in likely 20+ touches at only $6,300 is enticing.

James Robinson doesn't project to dominate the Running Back workload in Jacksonville like he did last season and we still don't know how Urban Meyer is going to operate the Jaguars. Still, Houston's defense was atrocious in 2020 and somehow got even worse this offseason as the Texans have essentially become an expansion franchise. Even with only a 60% workload, Robinson can get home with this incredible matchup.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams led the league in targets per game (11) last season and is my favorite Wide Receiver play of the week as he and Aaron Rodgers begin their likely "Last Dance" season together.

Irv Smith's injury projects to push even more targets towards the dynamic Justin Jefferson. That's extremely exciting since Jefferson was able to post 1,200+ receiving yards on only 7.53 targets per game last season. And Jefferson has a great matchup here against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA last season.

DeAndre Hopkins ranked tied for fourth in the league in targets per game (10) last season and now gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Titans defense that ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA last season. Arizona's defense should give up plenty of points to the Titans as well, giving this game a chance to shoot out.

Calvin Ridley has averaged 11.1 targets per game and dominated production in eight contests without Julio Jones. Julio is now in Tennessee. Ridley gets to play at home in a decent fantasy game against an Eagles defense that ranked 24th in pass DVOA last year.

The return of Derwin James improves the Chargers' secondary yet their Cornerback situation remains a question. McLaurin has the talent to take advantage. The offseason Quarterback upgrade to Ryan Fitzpatrick will help as will projected volume since McLaurin averaged nine targets per contest in 2020.

Playing at home in what projects to be a favorable fantasy game against a vulnerable Jets defense that ranked 21st in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA last year, both D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall are solid cash plays. Moore is the player I would pay up for as he's posted consecutive 1,100+ yards receiving seasons. Yet Marshall is the stone-cold minimum price and he projects to play in the slot, which could lead to multiple layup catches. Marshall is also a freak athlete at 6'2" 205 pounds and has the potential to become a star in the league. It doesn't hurt he's paired back with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who coached him at LSU.

Mike Zimmer typically has the Vikings' defense performing well and that projects to be the case once again this season thanks to an upgraded secondary. The upside might be capped here yet, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both underpriced, especially as cash plays. Both averaged over seven targets per game in 2020 and are now benefiting from the return of Joe Burrow.

Marquez Callaway has capitalized on the injury to Michael Thomas, garnering buzz all throughout training camp and proving it on the field in the preseason. At only $3,400, Callaway is one of the best cash game plays at Wide Receiver I can remember. His teammates Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith are both on Injured Reserve, which increases Callaway's target projection quite drastically.

Corey Davis was a phenomenal prospect that was drafted fifth overall by Tennessee back in 2017 and he's posted receiving yard totals of 891 and 984 in two of his four NFL seasons. Now projected to be the Jets' #1 Wide Receiver, Davis should see a healthy amount of targets in this favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that ranked 24th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA last season. And the volume should definitely be there now that Jamison Crowder has been ruled out and Keelan Cole is reportedly a game-time decision.

Rondale Moore caught 114 passes for 1,258 yards and 12 touchdowns as a true Freshman at Purdue in 2018 and he seemingly fits perfectly within Arizona's offense and with Kliff Kingsbury. Moore is the stone-cold minimum price in one of the best fantasy games of the week. While his upside might be limited until further notice, his floor could be bolstered by a few rushing attempts in addition to his targets.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce is the clear #1 Tight End option if you can afford him. Kelce ranked seventh in the entire league in targets per game (9.67) last season and is playing in my favorite fantasy game of the week against a Browns defense that struggled to defend Tight Ends in 2020.

Logan Thomas hardly left the field last season and saw 110 total targets. Thomas has size and athleticism and received a Quarterback upgrade in the offseason thanks to the arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick. $4,600 is a palatable price for Thomas' profile.

Robert Tonyan Jr caught 52 of 59 targets for 586 yards and 11 TDs last season. While his efficiency is all but guaranteed to regress, that should not be the focal point. Tonyan's volume could increase this season after proving his talent and connection with Aaron Rodgers. At only $4,200 Tonyan allows for affordable exposure to the Packers' potent offense in a fun fantasy game.

Jonnu Smith was highly coveted in free agency by New England and I expect Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels to utilize their new weapon right out of the gate. Smith is an exciting athlete who projects to have a bigger role with the Patriots than he ever had in Tennessee. And Smith will benefit from Mac Jones winning the Quarterback competition. Jones is a pinpoint accurate passer who will put Smith in favorable positions to create after the catch.

Team Defenses

San Francisco projects to benefit from the return of Nick Bosa and they get to face a Lions' offense that downgraded this offseason at Quarterback to Jared Goff and at Wide Receiver to Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kalif Raymond. It should come as no surprise the Lions have the lowest Implied team Total on the entire slate at only 18.75 points.

Denver has one of the best defensive units in the NFL being led by Vic Fangio, one of the best defensive minds in football. This is an incredible Week 1 matchup for the Broncos against turnover-prone Daniel Jones and a Giants' offense dealing with numerous injuries to their skill position players. Tight End Evan Engram has already been ruled out and the Giants have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (19.25) on the entire slate.

It feels weird to be betting against Sean Payton, one of the best offensive coaches in football, here. Yet, the Packers have one of the best defenses in football, and thanks to the retirement of Drew Brees, the Saints' offense could look different while led by Jameis Winston in Week 1. Winston has been extremely turnover-prone at times during his career as well.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

I like Patrick Mahomes II from a leverage perspective as his expensive price tag combined with Cleveland's improved defense will likely keep his ownership percentage depressed. Yet, there are plenty of solid affordable plays available to us in Week 1 that can allow us to fit Mahomes into our lineup in a smart and well-constructed way. That's exciting since Mahomes is the best player in football and he gets to play at home in a potential shootout between two of the AFC's best teams. This is the kind of game environment that can unlock his immense upside.

The Arizona Cardinals lost Patrick Peterson in the offseason and signed Malcolm Butler to "replace" him. Butler has since been put on the reserve/retired list. Arizona's cornerbacks are ripe for the picking by Ryan Tannehill who gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week. With Tennessee's defense projected to give up plenty of points themselves, this game looks headed for a shootout. While Kyler Murray is sure to go higher owned, let's not forget Tannehill played lights out in 2020. Out of 52 qualifying Quarterbacks that attempted 40 or more passes from Weeks 1-16 last season, Tannehill ranked seventh in pass TDs per game (2.13), fourth in ANY/A (7.91), sixth in yards per attempt (7.9), fourth in TD% (7%), and ninth in INT% (1.5%).

Houston's defense projects to be absolutely horrendous and Trevor Lawrence is one of the best Quarterback prospects we've had over the past decade. You couldn't create a better welcome to the NFL moment for Lawrence if you tried. Most of our competition will want to see it before they believe it for Lawrence on an NFL field, giving us a buying opportunity in tournaments. Once everyone catches on, the leverage disappears. The time is now.

The Bills franchise put their full faith in Josh Allen last season, running a pass-heavy offense, and Allen didn't disappoint as he essentially dominated all year. Look for that to continue in 2021 after the Bills went extremely pass-happy once again with Allen in the preseason dress rehearsal. This offense revolves around Allen in pretty much every way and I'll always bet on a great offense over a great defense. That's what we'll be doing here as Allen is at home but does have a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranked first in overall DVOA and first in pass DVOA last season. That will likely scare most people away, creating a buying opportunity for the dual-threat cheat code Quarterback.

In his first year on the job, Kevin Stefanski won AP Coach of the Year last season after leading the Browns of all franchises to an 11-5 record. Stefanski impressed me so much; I see a year two explosion in the range of outcomes similar to what Kyle Shanahan did with the Falcons’ offense in 2016. That would greatly benefit Baker Mayfield, who has shown tons of promise in his early NFL career outside of the disaster that was the Freddie Kitchens-led 2019 team. In Weeks 1-16, out of 52 quarterbacks with at least 40 pass attempts, here are some of Mayfield’s 2020 ranks despite playing in multiple bad weather games: Pass TDs per game 16th, Adjusted net yards per passing attempt 13th, and Touchdown percentage 13th. And his alpha WR, Odell Beckham, returns to headline a solid group of skill position players. Look for Stefanski and Mayfield to play aggressively in this one to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes II, which could lead to a shootout in one of the best fantasy games of the weekend.

Aaron Rodgers was the MVP last season after turning in a truly remarkable season throwing for a career-high 48 touchdown passes. Although New Orleans has a solid defense, I'm intrigued now that the Saints have lost home-field advantage and this game is going to be played in Jacksonville. Rodgers projects to be very low owned yet there's a chance Rodgers and Matt LaFleur are a perfect combination, allowing Rodgers to stay hot entering 2021.

Running Backs

There are many games people are excited about this weekend that will likely take precedence over the Chargers at Washington. That has me extremely fired up to roster Antonio Gibson at a ridiculously underpriced $5,900. Identifying the next NFL superstar is a major key to being successful playing fantasy football and DFS is no different. Count me in on Gibson being one of the next great Running Backs. He had a very impressive rookie season even despite battling through a toe injury toward the end of the year. Gibson offers mouth-watering dual-threat upside and projects to receive an increased workload in his second season. The stars are aligning on a very good Washington team both offensively and defensively for Gibson to truly break out and become the consensus 1.04 or 1.05 in redraft in 2022. If Gibson comes even remotely close to his high-end outcomes this season, rostering him at only $5,900 will become a pipe dream very quickly. And his matchup is a favorable one against a Chargers defense that ranked 20th in overall DVOA and 26th in run DVOA last season.

Austin Ekeler returned to practice on Friday and is listed as Questionable. It would be surprising to see Ekeler listed as inactive for Week 1 and if he does get the green light come Sunday morning, he'll become an even more intriguing tournament play than he was prior to his hamstring injury making headlines. Washington has a strong Defensive Line so it would be wise for new progressive Head Coach, Brandon Staley, to utilize Ekeler's elite receiving skillset in this one. Ekeler caught 92 passes the last time he played a full season back in 2019 and his game suits DraftKings' Full PPR scoring system very well.

After an injury-riddled second half to the 2020 season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is practicing in full for Week 1 and LeVeon Bell is now a Raven. Edwards-Helaire actually ranked 14th in the entire league in opportunities per game (18.08) last season. I know it's hard to believe but it's true. And that's actually a reason to be bullish, not bearish. Edwards-Helaire projects as Patrick Mahomes II' #3 pass-catcher behind only Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill and also has a favorable matchup on the ground this week against a Browns defense that ranked 25th in overall DVOA and 19th in run DVOA. I will continue to preach Edwards-Helaire offers massive touchdown upside in an Andy Reid and Mahomes-led offense and will not overreact to one year.

Derrick Henry just ran for over 2,000 yards last season and is still only 27 years old. He gets to begin 2021 at home in my favorite fantasy game of the weekend against a Cardinals defense that doesn't scare us away. His $8,800 price tag will likely mortify our competition though. Although that's a ton of salary to give up, we know Henry's spike weeks are about as high as any other Running Back in football.

Aaron Jones ranked 11th in the entire league in opportunities per game (19.08) last season and scored double-digit touchdowns for the second year in a row. Jones has a tough matchup on paper against a solid Saints defense but DraftKings dinged him too much, making a dual-threat touchdown scorer in one of the league's best offenses only $6,800. At projected low ownership as well, Jones checks a lot of tournament play boxes this weekend.

There's almost no doubt Mike Zimmer will have his Vikings defense playing immensely better this season but it's worth noting Minnesota did rank 30th in run DVOA a year ago. And with Giovani Bernard now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Joe Mixon has 25+ touch upside on Sunday. He ranked fourth in the entire league in opportunities per game (24.17) last season and that was with Bernard on the team.

The 49ers should light up a Lions defense that finished dead last in overall DVOA and 27th in run DVOA last season. I don't expect this game to be close at all. Enter Raheem Mostert now that Trey Sermon has been ruled inactive. Mostert is one of the most explosive Running Backs in football and averaged 15.38 opportunities per game in San Francisco just a year ago. He has slate-breaking upside.

Wide Receivers

Quez Watkins has been added to the DeVonta Smith write-up and makes for one of my favorite stacks with Smith and Jalen Hurts.

No Wide Receiver offers as much upside as Tyreek Hill due to his immense talent, the Quarterback he plays with, and the shallow depth chart around him in Kansas City. Hill ranked tied for ninth in the league in targets per game (9) and 14th in yards per route run (2.16) last season and I'm bullish those ranks could even improve here in 2021. Playing in one of the best fantasy games of the week with the highest Over/Under (54.5), Hill offers the tantalizing upside we crave for our potential tournament-winning lineup.

The Colts' best Cornerback, Xavier Rhodes, won't play on Sunday. It's wheels up for both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in the dome in Indianapolis. Both players offer immense upside playing with Russell Wilson and although Metcalf is widely viewed as the better player, it was Lockett that saw more targets (132), more receptions (100), and the same amount of touchdowns (10) when compared to Metcalf. Both receivers played all 16 games.

A.J. Brown has posted over 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons and has only seen 84 and 106 total targets in those years, respectively. The year three additional target volume bump is going to be very nice for Brown, who ranked third at the Wide Receiver position in yards per route run (2.65) in 2020. And new addition Julio Jones still has it as he ranked fourth in yards per route run (2.6) just behind Brown. Brown and Jones should feast with a favorable matchup in one of the best games of the week. The Arizona Cardinals lost Patrick Peterson in the offseason and signed Malcolm Butler to "replace" him. Butler has since been put on the reserve/retired list. If choosing just one, Brown is my preference.

Stefon Diggs is one of the most talented Wide Receivers in football paired with one of the best Quarterbacks in the game on a team that threw for the third-most yards in 2020. Diggs is matchup proof and he proved that against this same tough matchup last season. Diggs caught 10 of 14 passes for 130 yards and a TD against the Steelers last Week 14. And just for an additional confidence boost: Diggs ranked sixth in yards per route run (2.51) a year ago.

Austin Ekeler returned to practice on Friday and is listed as Questionable. It would be surprising to see Ekeler listed as inactive for Week 1 but at this point, it would be foolish to expect him to be 100% healthy on Sunday. Anything less than full-go for Ekeler is a boost for target hog Keenan Allen. Allen isn't thought of by the masses as an alpha Wide Receiver but he should be. Allen ranked third in targets per game (10.5) and finished tied for fifth in receptions (100) and 17th in receiving yards (992) last season despite only playing in 14 games and being severely limited in two others due to injury. The Ekeler situation combined with Washington's elite Defensive Line should funnel targets to Allen. He's a strong candidate to lead the league in targets in Week 1. He'll be in my main tournament lineup.

Justin Jefferson is the more sexy play but let's not forget Adam Thielen caught 74 passes for 925 yards and 14 touchdowns last year on only 108 targets. Irv Smith's injury projects to push even more targets Thielen's way and he has a great matchup against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA last season.

Odell Beckham is inactive. “We’ll let you know 90 minutes before the game," Kevin Stefanki said when asked about Odell Beckham's return after last season's ACL injury. There have been nothing but positive reports regarding Beckham's status all offseason so this report popping up the weekend of Week 1 makes me even more bullish on Beckham as a tournament play. There is absolutely no doubt this report will push his ownership percentage even lower than it was already going to be, especially because the Browns at Chiefs is an afternoon game. I'm very confident Beckham will play and even if not, we have the ability to pivot. When going for gold to beat thousands in tournaments, these are the kinds of stands we should be taking. Beckham has immense upside should his high range of outcomes hit in one of the best fantasy games of the weekend.

Urban Meyer has done some strange things this offseason. He reportedly wanted to draft Kadarius Toney, did draft Travis Etienne, signed Tavon Austin, and signed Duke Johnson Jr to the practice squad. Etienne and Austin are both on Injured Reserve so unless Johnson is called up, none will be suiting up for the Jaguars on Sunday. That leaves Laviska Shenault as the middle of the field dominator for Trevor Lawrence, especially since the Jaguars have no legitimate Tight End to speak of. This is super exciting considering the incredible matchup Shenault has against a putrid Texans defense. But let's not leave Marvin Jones out of this conversation either. Jones is certainly a hit or miss type of player but those are the kinds we should be looking for in tournaments and he's priced at only $3,600.

DeVonta Smith caught 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy last season and he immediately projects as the Eagles' #1 Wide Receiver. Smith is only $4,500 in one of the more favorable fantasy games of the week in a good matchup against a questionable at best Falcons defense. But let's not stop there. Quez Watkins is minimum priced ($3,000) and after a strong preseason, has reportedly taken over the starting slot role. That's exciting since Watkins runs a 4.35 40-yard dash and offers inside and outside versatility. A threat to take it to the house on every touch, Watkins is a very fun tournament play as he'll likely be 5% owned maximum. And no, I don't believe this is a "getting too cute" play. Watkins was a strong producer in college at Southern Mississippi. In 2018 as a Sophomore Watkins caught 72 passes for 889 yards and 9 TDs and followed that up in 2019 with 64 catches for 1,178 yards and 6 TDs before leaving early for the NFL after his Junior season. And just for fun: Watkins trained all offseason in Atlanta, where the Eagles will be playing today.

Jamison Crowder will miss week 1 and Keelan Cole is reportedly a game-time decision. This is the perfect setup for Elijah Moore, who has been out of the public's eye for weeks due to a quad injury. Moore is reportedly ready to roll for Week 1 and we might have lift off with the talented rookie, especially since he's priced at the bare minimum salary. I can't remember any player ever receiving more offseason and training camp buzz than Moore and I'm not trying to use hyperbole here.

I think the craziest thing about Elijah Moore is every day I come here saying I’m going to focus on someone else. Then he makes that impossible #Jets

— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) August 4, 2021

And that buzz is likely warranted. The great Jack Miller of Establish The Run and NBC Sports Edge breaks it down for us here:

You don’t want to be too reactive to camp buzz, but that’s hard when Elijah Moore had an elite prospect profile too. Moore:

- Broke out at age 19.7 (>30% DR)
- Led FBS in yards and receptions per game in 2020 (ahead of the Heisman winner)
- Left school with a 29% career yards MS

— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) August 4, 2021

Elijah Moore had 850 receiving yards in 2019. Ole Miss’ next-closest pass-catcher had 192.

Last year, Moore had 1,193 yards. Next-closest player had 524.

Just incredible production.

— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) August 4, 2021

Emmanuel Sanders is listed as Questionable with a foot injury so this is a situation that must be monitored. But the Bills do have an early game on Sunday and if Sanders is active, I'm interested. Sanders projects as a near full-time player in one the most pass-happy offenses in the league and he can be rostered at only $4,100. I'd be surprised if his ownership percentage was any greater than 3% as well.

Tight Ends

The 49ers should light up a Lions defense that finished dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA and 27th in run DVOA last season. The obvious thought by many is their running game will dominate, which I believe as well. However, it will be tougher for Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon to get home since they'll cannibalize each other a bit. We want Running Backs that offer 30+ DraftKings point upside and I don't see that extreme upside with either player. Mostert and Sermon are both good plays but George Kittle has the potential to be a great play. Kittle is one of my favorite leverage plays on the slate. Kittle's $6,300 price tag puts him between the best option (Travis Kelce) and a ton of enticing cheaper options and since we know many like to either go all in or pay way down at Tight End, Kittle could have a low ownership percentage. Furthering the "Kittle under the radar in Week 1 DFS" narrative is the recency bias many will have since he only played in eight games last season. Out of sight, out of mind. We love that from a tournament perspective and we also love upside, which Kittle has in bunches should his high range of outcomes hit. Kittle offers double-digit catch and/or three TD potential. In fact, I'll make a call on the record here. Kittle has shockingly never caught multiple touchdowns in an NFL game. That changes this Sunday.

The only player making me hesitate going all-in on George Kittle in tournaments at the Tight End position is Kyle Pitts. One of the best Tight End prospects ever, Pitts is really a Wide Receiver with the TE designation and I expect Arthur Smith to utilize him accordingly. Essentially Julio Jones' replacement, Pitts can be rostered at only $4,400 in the TE or even the FLEX spot if we want to be extremely unique with our builds. Linebacker is a weakness for the Eagles and either way, they have no one that can cover Pitts one-on-one. Again, we want to get out in front of the inevitable before everyone else buys in. Roster Pitts.

In Austin Hooper's first season with the Browns, he dealt with multiple injuries and Cleveland had to play in multiple bad weather/windy games. A near full-time player, there is certainly a bull case to be made for Hooper making a leap in his second year with the team. Regardless of how the entirety of the 2021 season shakes out for him, Hooper is certainly in a good spot to post a strong Week 1 line in one of the best fantasy games of the week in a game where the Browns project to throw a lot.

A quick skim of the Seahawks' depth chart shows second-round pick rookie D'Wayne Eskridge as the #3 Wide Receiver. Eskridge could very well turn out to be good but he's a bit more of a question mark as his collegiate profile wasn't particularly impressive. Gerald Everett could easily begin the season as Russell Wilson's #3 pass catcher and there is more upside here at the Tight End position than most likely remember. Jimmy Graham caught ten TDs in his final year with Seattle in 2017, and even Jacob Hollister caught 41 passes in limited action in 2019. Everett is an athletic player who could turn out to be the latest mid-career tight end to put it all together. At the very least, he should not be this affordable to begin the season.

Jamison Crowder will miss week 1, Keelan Cole is reportedly a game-time decision, and Chris Herndon was traded to the Vikings. Things could not have broken any more right for Tyler Kroft to not only begin the season as a near full-time player for the Jets, but to see a solid amount of passing volume as well. After catching two Touchdowns in Week 2 of the preseason, Kroft is a solid play at bare minimum $2,500 salary in a favorable fantasy game and matchup.

Team Defenses

Jacksonville does not have a very good defense but the worst kept secret in fantasy football is we're not necessarily starting our defense/special teams as we're making a bet against the offense they're playing. And that offense just so happens to be the Texans led by journeyman Tyrod Taylor who will be throwing to Brandin Cooks and then a bunch of castoffs that probably would not be playing at all on any of the other teams in the league. Houston has the sixth-lowest Implied Team Total (21.5) and I think that's too generous.

This will be Joe Burrow's first game back after suffering a gruesome knee injury last season and Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense looks ready to significantly improve from their performance in 2020. Additions to the unit this offseason include Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, Mackensie Alexander at Cornerback and Sheldon Richardson, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Everson Griffen along the Defensive Line.

The Patriots also gained reinforcements this summer with Linebacker Donta Hightower returning after opting out due to COVID-19 in 2020 and Defensive Tackle Christian Barmore was drafted in the second round. I certainly believe Tua Tagovailoa can take a second-year leap this season but this game is in Foxborough and projected #1 WR Will Fuller will not be playing due to suspension. The Dolphins have the second-lowest Implied Team Total of the entire week at 18.5 points.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Austin Ekeler Questionable - Upgrade Keenan Allen
• Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith OUT - Upgrade Alvin Kamara, Marquez Callaway, and Juwan Johnson
• Xavier Rhodes OUT - Upgrade Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
• Marshon Lattimore Questionable - Upgrade Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
• Jamison Crowder OUT and Keelan Cole GTD - Upgrade Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Denzel Mims
• Curtis Samuel OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Dyami Brown
• Evan Engram OUT - Upgrade Broncos D/ST
• Trae Waynes OUT - Upgrade Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen
• Tyrann Mathieu on COVID list - Upgrade Browns' passing attack
• Taylor Decker OUT - Upgrade 49ers D/ST
• Quenton Nelson and Eric Fisher status up in the air - Upgrade Seahawks D/ST
• Will Fuller OUT and Preston Williams Questionable - Upgrade DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and Patriots D/ST
• Emmanuel Sanders Questionable - Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Cole Beasley
• Nelson Agholor Questionable - Upgrade Jakobi Meyers

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Antonio Gibson and Keenan Allen
• Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
• Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins
• Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Odell Beckham
• Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Moore
• Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and Kyle Pitts

My Flag Plant Plays

• Antonio Gibson
• George Kittle
• Keenan Allen
• A.J. Brown