- Patriots at Chargers - Over/Under 49.5
- Titans at Colts - Over/Under 51
- Panthers at Falcons - Over/Under 47
- Eagles at Lions - Over/Under 48.5
Favorite Additional Spots
- Rams on the road against the Texans - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Bengals on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 26.75
- Bills at home vs. the Dolphins - Implied Team Total 31.5
- Buccaneers on the road against the Saints - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Jaguars on the road against the Seahawks - Implied Team Total 20.75
|1||Matthew Stafford||at Texans||$7,600|
|2||Tom Brady||at Saints||$7,400|
|3||Joe Burrow||at Jets||$7,100|
|4||Carson Wentz||vs. Titans||$5,700|
Matthew Stafford continues to dominate. He ranks third in passing yards (2,170) and second in touchdown passes (19) while leading a Rams offense that ranks second in overall DVOA and first in pass DVOA. He quite literally is one of the front runners for MVP and now gets to tee off on a horrible Texans team that ranks 18th in overall defensive DVOA and whose offense, led by Davis Mills, won't be doing the Texans defense any favors either.
Tom Brady just doesn't make sense. At age 44, Brady continues to destroy the league and has even gotten better with age. Brady leads the NFL in both passing yards (2,279) and passing touchdowns (21) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in overall DVOA and second in pass DVOA. His matchup this week against the Saints isn't an ideal one as New Orleans ranks third in overall defensive DVOA and sixth in pass DVOA yet we're taking Brady in this matchup every time.
The Bengals have been increasing their passing frequency on offense as of late, culminating in Joe Burrow's best game of the season last week where he threw for 416 yards and three touchdowns against the Ravens. Burrow now has an incredibly spicy matchup on tap against a Jets defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA.
Carson Wentz and Frank Reich make for a pretty solid duo. They're no Jim and Pam Beesly but hey, they're still getting the job done. Wentz has thrown for two touchdowns in four straight games and added his first rushing touchdown of the season last week in the rain as well. Wentz is priced at only $5,700 and gets to play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week. In fact, the 51 point Over/Under is the highest on the main slate. And Tennessee's defense is vulnerable as they rank 22nd in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA.
|1||Derrick Henry||at Colts||$8,900|
|2||Jonathan Taylor||vs. Titans||$7,200|
|3||Darrell Henderson||at Texans||$6,500|
|4||Joe Mixon||at Jets||$6,900|
|5||Zack Moss||vs. Dolphins||$5,200|
All hail King Henry. Derrick Henry is completely and utterly dominating the league in opportunities per game (30.1), total yards (1,023), and total touchdowns (10). That's what we care about in fantasy obviously, especially in cash games. And Henry gets to play in the best fantasy game of the week as well.
Jonathan Taylor is $1,700 cheaper than Derrick Henry, gets to play in the same great fantasy game, is playing at home, and has the better matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 25th in run DVOA. He's one of the best talents at the position we have in the NFL and ranks 13th in the entire league in opportunities per game (18).
Darrell Henderson ranks eighth in the NFL in opportunities per game (19.7), plays in a Rams offense that ranks second in overall DVOA, and has a beautiful matchup against a Texans defense that ranks 18th in overall DVOA and 30th in run DVOA. The Rams are 15 point favorites as well.
Joe Mixon ranks seventh in opportunities per game (19.9) and looks to be in a position to post a great stat line against a Jets defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 27th in run DVOA. Incredibly, the Bengals sit at 5-2 right now and are 10.5 point favorites on Sunday.
Zack Moss is a thinner play but his price reflects that at $5,200. Moss has seen double-digit opportunities in every game he's been active for and is in a good spot this week at home against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 18th in run DVOA. The Bills are 14 point favorites, which projects favorably for Moss.
|1||Cooper Kupp||at Texans||$9,000|
|2||Stefon Diggs||vs. Dolphins||$8,100|
|3||Ja'Marr Chase||at Jets||$7,500|
|4||Chris Godwin||at Saints||$6,400|
|5||Mike Evans||at Saints||$7,000|
|6||Diontae Johnson||at Browns||$6,700|
|7||D.J. Moore||at Falcons||$7,200|
|8||Jaylen Waddle||at Bills||$5,600|
This is the Cooper Kupp career year. Kupp leads the league in targets per game (11.6), receptions (56), receiving yards (809), and receiving touchdowns (9). He's a great play against *checks notes* the Texans.
Stefon Diggs ranks tied for tenth in targets per game (9.7) and has WR1 overall of the week upside in a great matchup home against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.
It's safe to say Ja'Marr Chase is in fact, that dude. Chase ranks second in the league in receiving yards (754) and should only benefit more now that the Bengals have started to pass more frequently. And this is another spot where Chase could just melt faces. The Jets defense only ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Good luck New York!
Rob Gronkowski is listed as Questionable but does project to return this week. However, Antonio Brown won't play and that's extremely significant since he was receiving significant volume while looking like the same player that previously dominated the league for nearly a decade. Tom Brady leads the NFL in both passing yards (2,279) and passing touchdowns (21) so naturally, his top two receivers are going to benefit, especially when the target tree gets more narrow thanks to Brown's absence. Take your pick, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both fine plays.
Diontae Johnson ranks seventh in the league in targets per game (10) and this after he ranked tied for fourth in the NFL in targets per game (10) in 2020. Johnson's role as Pittsburgh's WR1 is locked in, especially with JuJu Smith-Schuster on season-ending Injured Reserve. And he has a solid matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 15th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA.
D.J. Moore ranks tied for third in targets per game (10.4), fourth in receptions (46), sixth in receiving yards (586), and has scored three touchdowns. Without Christian McCaffrey, he's not only the Panthers' WR1 but their best offensive player period. Moore is a very solid play in a fun fantasy game against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
Will Fuller V will miss another game and DeVante Parker is listed as Questionable. Jaylen Waddle is priced at only $5,600, he's seen 27 targets over the past three weeks, has two games of 13 targets already on the year, and the Dolphins will likely be throwing a lot while playing catch-up against the Bills.
|1||Kyle Pitts||vs. Panthers||$6,300|
|2||Mike Gesicki||at Bills||$5,000|
|3||Dallas Goedert||at Lions||$4,700|
|4||Ricky Seals-Jones||at Broncos||$3,800|
I'm channeling my inner Dennis Green when I type Kyle Pitts is who we thought he was! Pitts is an athletic freak Wide Receiver who is being labeled as a Tight End and we should take advantage. Pitts has seen 18 targets over his past two games and turned them into 16 catches for 282 yards and a touchdown. This is just the beginning and he now gets to play at home in an intriguing fantasy game against the Panthers.
Mike Gesicki is another glorified Wide Receiver being labeled as a Tight End. He has lined up in the slot on 67.6% of his snaps this season and is being used voluminously thanks in part to injuries to Will Fuller V and DeVante Parker. Gesicki has turned 17 targets over the past two weeks into 16 receptions for 200 yards and touchdown. He'll be needed if the Dolphins hope to keep pace with the Bills in this division showdown.
Without Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert played a season-high 93% of the offensive snaps in Week 7. That increased usage projects to pay off in this great matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in both overall DVOA and passing DVOA.
Logan Thomas remains out and Ricky Seals-Jones continues playing 100% of the offensive snaps in his place. Priced at only $3,800, Seals-Jones is a solid play against a Broncos defense that ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
|1||Los Angeles Rams||at Texans||$5,100|
|2||Cincinnati Bengals||at Jets||$3,600|
The Rams are costly but they are the best defense of the entire week. The Rams are 15 point favorites and the Texans have the lowest Implies Team Total (15.5) of the entire week.
The Bengals are 10.5 point favorites and get to face a Jets team that will be without their starting Quarterback. Corey Davis is Doubtful as well. The Jets have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (16.25) of the entire week.
|1||Josh Allen||vs. Dolphins||$8,100|
|2||Jalen Hurts||at Lions||$7,200|
|3||Matt Ryan||vs. Panthers||$5,900|
|4||Trevor Lawrence||at Seahawks||$5,500|
Josh Allen ranked fifth in passing yards per game (288) and fifth in passing touchdowns per game (2.27) while adding a total of 421 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in 2020. And he currently ranks eighth in passing touchdowns (15) despite already having a bye. Allen's upside is astronomical at all times, and especially this week at home against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA. Allen is the best Quarterback play on this slate.
Reality football and fantasy football don't always mesh and that's perfectly fine as long as we can sift through it and determine what it means for us. Jalen Hurts only ranks 19th at Quarterback in PFF's Offensive Grading yet he ranks third out of all Quarterbacks on the main slate this week in DraftKings' points per game (26). There are already rumblings Hurts could be benched for Gardner Minshew at some point this season yet we're playing Daily Fantasy so we should be fine for now. And the dual-threat Hurts has a mouthwatering matchup in store against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in both overall DVOA and passing DVOA.
It appears the Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith marriage is starting to come together. Over the past three games, Ryan is averaging 320.3 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns. And now he gets to play at home in one of the more intriguing fantasy matchups of the week against a free-falling Panthers team thanks to their Quarterback, Sam Darnold, spiraling out of control. Darnold's mistakes should set Ryan up for multiple scoring opportunities on Sunday.
Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown for multiple scores since Week 1 so this is truly a tournament play but he's priced at only $5,500, will be low owned, and gets an awful Seahawks defense that ranks 21st in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA. They seem even worse than that right now because, without Russell Wilson, Geno Smith has been putting the Seattle defense in some very tough positions. I don't expect Sunday to be any different.
|1||D'Andre Swift||vs. Eagles||$7,100|
|2||Najee Harris||at Browns||$7,500|
|3||Damien Harris||at Chargers||$6,100|
|4||James Robinson||at Seahawks||$6,600|
D'Andre Swift ranks 11th in the league in opportunities per game (18.6) and 22nd in the entire NFL in targets (52). He's also receiving numerous carries near the goal line. Receiving all the most important touches for fantasy scoring purposes, Swift's role is just straight money right now. And this spot looks like it could be his best one so far at home against an Eagles defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA. The Eagles are three-point favorites but Detroit could get their first win on Sunday. In fact, that's exactly what I'm predicting.
Najee Harris is kind of the forgotten man after the Steelers had their bye in Week 7. But it's hard to put him out of our minds completely when he ranks second in opportunities per game (24.7). Matchups hardly matter when a player is receiving that much work on the ground and through the air and I don't see Harris' ownership percentage getting steamed in this spot. He checks the tournament boxes.
Damien Harris ranks ninth in carries (95), eighth in rushing yards (437), and tied for third in rushing touchdowns (5). He's been a beast for the Patriots on the ground and now couldn't possibly have a better matchup against the Chargers defense that ranks dead last in run DVOA. The Chargers have been gashed on the ground all year and this Sunday should be no different thanks to Harris as long as the game remains competitive. Count me as one that believes the team that just beat the Jets by 31 a week ago and that took the Cowboys into overtime in Week 6 will come to play.
James Robinson ranks 14th in opportunities per game (17.7) and played on a season-high 85% of the snaps in games with Carlos Hyde active back in Week 6 before Jacksonville's bye. Robinson has a favorable matchup this week against a Seattle defense that ranks 21st in overall DVOA and the Seahawks are only 3.5 point favorites thanks to Geno Smith. This game should not only remain competitive, Jacksonville has a good chance to win it outright.
|1||A.J. Brown||at Colts||$6,900|
|2||Keenan Allen||vs. Patriots||$6,500|
|3||Michael Pittman Jr||vs. Titans||$5,300|
|4||Tee Higgins||at Jets||$5,200|
|5||Marvin Jones Jr||at Seahawks||$5,900|
|6||Jakobi Meyers||at Chargers||$5,100|
|7||Robby Anderson||at Falcons||$4,700|
|8||Jerry Jeudy||vs. Washington||$4,900|
Julio Jones has been ruled out and it's very kind of him to step aside for A.J. Brown SZN. Brown was an obvious smash play last week and he didn't disappoint, catching eight of nine targets for 133 yards and a touchdown. We're going right back to the well in Week 8 as Brown now gets to play in the best fantasy game of the week against a Colts defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA. I wrote this last week: Incredibly, Brown has only seen double-digit targets twice in his young career. Here are his stat lines in those games: eight catches for 114 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets as a rookie back in 2019 and 10 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets in Week 17 last season. Well, I thought for sure Brown would see double-digit targets against the Chiefs but shockingly, Tennessee was able to sit on the ball in the second half as Kansas City didn't even put up a fight. I'm going back to the double-digit target prediction once again in what should be a much closer division battle.
Austin Ekeler felt sore after Wednesday's practice and sat out on Thursday and Friday. Even if he plays, he's likely to be less than 100%. That provides a boost for Keenan Allen, who ranks tied for tenth in targets per game (9.7), in one of my favorite games of the week. The Chargers had their bye a week ago and looked horrendous against the Ravens back in Week 6. We love that because it likely means Allen's ownership percentage is going to be low. If this game is competitive like I'm predicting, Allen has double-digit catch upside.
Michael Pittman Jr's $5,300 price tag is very appetizing in the best fantasy game of the week against a Titans defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA. Parris Campbell is out and T.Y. Hilton is Questionable. The Colts are going to need Pittman in this one just like they did back in Week 3 against the Titans when he saw 12 targets.
Tee Higgins saw 15 targets last week, is priced at only $5,200 and is playing in one of the best spots of the week against a Jets defense only ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Looking at Higgins peripheral numbers, a big game is clearly on the horizon and I'm pumped up to bet on it this week. Higgins is one of my favorite tournament plays and is the cover boy for the article.
I wrote up Trevor Lawrence thanks to the favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 21st in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA. If Lawrence gets there, it will likely be thanks to Marvin Jones Jr, who is not only the Jaguars' deep threat but also leads the team in targets (47), receptions (28), receiving yards (343), and receiving touchdowns (3).
Jakobi Meyers ranks tied for 18th in targets per game (8.4) and is bound to catch a touchdown sooner rather than later. The Chargers are at home in this one and if they're able to get out to a lead, New England could be forced to abandon the run a bit and turn to the Mac Jones and Meyers connection. In this scenario, Meyers could offer high upside at low ownership in Patriots/Chargers game stacks.
Robby Anderson has been awful this season but he's the exact kind of player we want to target in tournaments because throwing all of his vomit-inducing performances out, he looks like an incredible tournament play at low ownership for just Week 8. Christian McCaffrey and Terrace Marshall Jr are both out, reducing the target tree to just D.J. Moore, Chuba Hubbard, and Anderson. Anderson's target totals the past four weeks: 11, 7, 11, 9. And now he gets to play in a fun fantasy game against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
Jerry Jeudy rested on Friday which will likely scare some off of playing him but if he does go (All accounts have said he will play), he's a very fun tournament play at only $4,900 against an awful Washington defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA. Jeudy caught six of seven passes for 72 yards in his only game action in Week 1 prior to getting hurt. Jeudy and Teddy Bridgewater's play styles appear destined to mesh well together and Jeudy could be the next great talent at the Wide Receiver position in the league. If even one of those two statements is true, Jeudy has a chance to win you a tournament this week.
|1||Tyler Higbee||at Texans||$4,500|
|2||Dan Arnold||at Seahawks||$2,800|
|3||Pat Freiermuth||at Browns||$3,600|
Tyler Higbee has played on 100% of the offensive snaps in back-to-back weeks and he gets an incredible matchup against a Texans defense that ranks tied for allowing the most fantasy points to the Tight End position so far this season according to Fantasy Pros.
Urban Meyer loves utilizing a Tight End in his offense and Dan Arnold is that guy right now. He's played on 73% and 62% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks, respectively. He's priced at only $2,800 and has a favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 21st in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.
Eric Ebron won't play this week and that's big news for the rookie Pat Freiermuth, who was already seeing an uptick in playing time. Freiermuth played on a season-high 60% of the offensive snaps in Week 6 prior to Pittsburgh's bye and now projects to be a near full-time player with Ebron out. This tournament option checks the boxes of being affordable and low-owned.
|1||Atlanta Falcons||vs. Panthers||$2,900|
|2||Jacksonville Jaguars||at Seahawks||$2,400|
Sam Darnold is imploding right before our very eyes. He has thrown seven interceptions over the past four weeks and was benched in-game last Sunday. The Falcons don't have a great defense but they do get to play at home and we know mistake-prone Quarterbacks on the other side matter more. The Falcons are priced at only $2,900.
Rejoice, friends. We can bet against Geno Smith for only $2,400 this week. Smith has Seattle's offense looking sluggish and the low cost of Jacksonville allows us to get creative elsewhere.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Austin Ekeler Questionable - Upgrade Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson at Running Back as well as Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, and Donald Parham
- Antonio Brown OUT and Rob Gronkowski Questionable - Upgrade Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, and Rob Gronkowski if he plays
- Julio Jones OUT - Upgrade A.J. Brown and Josh Reynolds
- Dawson Knox OUT - Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, and Tommy Sweeney
- Miles Sanders OUT - Upgrade Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott
- Zach Wilson OUT and Corey Davis Doubtful - Upgrade Bengals D/ST
- Eric Ebron OUT - Upgrade Pat Freiermuth
- DeSean Jackson OUT - Upgrade Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee
- Andrus Peat (Saints LG) OUT - Upgrade Buccaneers D/ST
- Christian McCaffrey and Terrace Marshall Jr both OUT - Upgrade Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson
- Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas both OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Ricky Seals-Jones, DeAndre Carter, and Adam Humphries
- Will Fuller V OUT and DeVante Parker Questionable - Upgrade Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Mack Hollins
- Malcolm Brown OUT - Upgrade - Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed
- David Montgomery OUT - Upgrade Khalil Herbert
- James White OUT and Jonnu Smith Questionable - Upgrade Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry
- Laremy Tunsil (Texans Left Tackle) OUT - Upgrade Rams D/ST
- Frank Ragnow (Lions Center) OUT - Upgrade Eagles D/ST
- Quintez Cephus OUT - Upgrade T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, and KhaDarel Hodge
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins
- Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
- Damien Harris and Keenan Allen
- Jonathan Taylor and A.J. Brown