- Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers - Over/Under 49
- Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 55
- Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers - Over/Under 53
- Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots - Over/Under 45
Favorite Additional Spots
- Colts at home vs. the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 29
- Bills on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 30.3
- Buccaneers on the road against Washington - Implied Team Total 30.3
- Steelers at home vs. the Lions - Implied Team Total 25.5
- Titans at home vs. the Saints - Implied Team Total 23.8
- Cardinals at home vs. the Panthers - Implied Team Total 27.5
|1||Carson Wentz||vs. Jaguars||$5,900|
|2||Tom Brady||at Washington||$7,600|
|3||Teddy Bridgewater||vs. Eagles||$5,500|
After a slow start on a new team, while dealing with injuries to both of his ankles, Carson Wentz has now thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since Week 4 and has thrown three scores in back-to-back contests. The Wentz and Frank Reich combination has been getting it done and now Wentz gets to play at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA.
Tom Brady is literally unbelievable. At age 44, he appears to be in the driver's seat for the MVP award as he currently leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Even though he'll be operating without playmakers Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and potentially Chris Godwin in this one, the matchup is still sweet against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.
Teddy Bridgewater is a competent Quarterback. He's not going to wow you but he can get it done in the right situation and priced at only $5,500, this appears to be one of those times. Bridgwater gets to play at home against an Eagles defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA. And per ESPN's Field Yates, the Eagles are allowing opposing Quarterbacks to complete 75.7% of their passes, which would be an NFL record for a full season. Plus, Bridgewater has Denver's offense ranked 14th in overall DVOA and 12th in pass DVOA on the season and ranks third out of all qualifying Quarterbacks in completion percentage (70.2%).
|1||Najee Harris||vs. Lions||$7,900|
|2||Jonathan Taylor||vs. Jaguars||$8,100|
|3||D'Ernest Johnson||at Patriots||$4,700|
|4||James Conner||vs. Panthers||$6,300|
|5||Mark Ingram II||at Titans||$4,500|
|6||Cordarrelle Patterson||at Cowboys||$6,600|
Najee Harris ranks second in opportunities per game (25.3) and the Steelers are 7.5 point favorites at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 25th in run DVOA. And with recent injuries to Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Harris, who already has 52 targets and 40 catches on the season, projects to be funneled targets in the passing game.
Jonathan Taylor ranks eighth in opportunities per game (18.6) and the Colts are 10.5 point favorites at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA. It's important to note the Jaguars are a pass funnel as they rank dead last in pass DVOA but eighth in run DVOA. Still, Taylor is matchup proof and this isn't even a matchup to worry about.
With Kareem Hunt out due to injury and Nick Chubb, Demetric Felton, and John Kelly all out on the COVID list, D'Ernest Johnson is the last man standing. Johnson was incredible in his one outing as the starter this year, rushing for 146 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts while adding two catches for 22 yards against the Broncos. Johnson's matchup this week works out in his favor as the Patriots rank much better against the pass (sixth in DVOA) than they do against the run (17th in DVOA). And the offense Johnson plays in sells itself as the Browns rank first in rush DVOA behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Chase Edmonds has averaged 12.6 opportunities per game this season and those chances are now up for grabs with Edmonds out due to injury. James Conner has been in a timeshare with Edmonds all season and went nuclear last Sunday once Edmonds left the game, turning 26 total opportunities into 173 total yards and three touchdowns. But Conner had also been producing all year despite the timeshare thanks to touchdowns. In fact, Conner currently leads the league in touchdowns with 11. The Cardinals are ten-point home favorites against a Panthers defense that ranks 19th in run DVOA and Carolina will be starting their backup Quarterback P.J. Walker as well.
Alvin Kamara has been ruled out leaving Mark Ingram II as the guy at Running Back for the Saints just a few weeks after they traded for him. Ingram has only played on 29% and 34% of the offensive snaps in his two weeks with the team but he's received 8 and 14 opportunities in those two games. Ingram was with the Saints for years so there's very little concern about him learning the offense. He projects to see 20+ opportunities against a Titans defense that ranks 24th in run DVOA and he's priced at only $4,500.
Cordarrelle Patterson continues to have an awesome season averaging 15 opportunities per game as a dual-threat option in a functional offense led by Matt Ryan. Calvin Ridley's absence is huge for Patterson since Atlanta is starving for playmakers outside of Kyle Pitts and Patterson fits the bill. Playing in one of the best fantasy games with the highest Over/Under (55) of the week, Patterson is a solid play against the Cowboys' average defense.
|1||Diontae Johnson||vs. Lions||$6,800|
|2||Mike Evans||at Washington||$6,900|
|3||Michael Pittman Jr||vs. Jaguars||$6,300|
|4||A.J. Brown||vs. Saints||$7,800|
|5||Jerry Jeudy||vs. Eagles||$5,300|
Diontae Johnson ranks seventh in targets per game (9.9) and has a phenomenal matchup at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. With JuJu Smith-Schuster already out of the lineup and Chase Claypool now joining him on the sideline, Johnson is a lock in cash.
Mike Evans isn't typically thought of as a cash receiver but with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski out and Chris Godwin a Game Time Decision, Evans, who ranks tied for second in receiving touchdowns (8), looks to be in a fantastic spot against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.
Michael Pittman Jr has put it all together in his second season. He's caught four touchdowns over his past three games and has 21 more targets and 20 more receptions than anyone else on Indianapolis. Pittman is in a great spot to keep his positive momentum going at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA.
A.J. Brown has only seen double-digit targets four times in his entire career. Two of those instances have come in the past two games and of course, that means Brown saw double-digit targets in Tennessee's first game without Derrick Henry. No Henry means this offense now runs through A.J. Brown. It's that simple. And once again, Julio Jones is questionable after getting injured in practice this week. This isn't a great matchup for Brown as the Saints ranks 13th in pass DVOA but volume is king in fantasy football, especially in cash, and Brown should once again flirt with 10+ targets here.
Teddy Bridgewater ranks third out of all qualifying Quarterbacks in completion percentage (70.2%) and per ESPN's Field Yates, the Eagles are allowing opposing Quarterbacks to complete 75.7% of their passes, which would be an NFL record for a full season. Jerry Jeudy is an elite talent that gets open at will and projects to rack up the catches in this one thanks to the aforementioned favorable matchup. And Jeudy saw eight targets in just his second game back from injury in a blowout win a week ago. Just wait until we see how nice the volume is when the Broncos are in a competitive game.
|1||Kyle Pitts||at Cowboys||$5,800|
|2||Dalton Schultz||vs. Falcons||$5,000|
|3||Pat Freiermuth||vs. Lions||$3,900|
Blake Jarwin's absence is a big deal for Dalton Schultz. Without Jarwin last week, Schultz played on a season-high 95% of the offensive snaps. Schultz has seen at least five targets in seven of eight games on the year and now gets to play in a contest with the highest Over/Under of the week (55) at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA.
Pat Freiermuth is balling right now and has played on 78% and 71% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks. Eric Ebron missed both of those games but will return on Sunday. Still, Chase Claypool won't play this week so Freiermuth's projection is actually looking up despite Ebron's return. Freiermuth is only priced at $3,900 and has a destroyable matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA.
|1||Tennessee Titans||vs. Saints||$2,600|
|2||Arizona Cardinals||vs. Panthers||$3,700|
The Titans somehow are only priced at $2,600. They're the best D/ST play of the week and it's not close. Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara both won't play leaving Trevor Siemian and Mark Ingram II to headline the Saints offense on the road against a Titans defense that ranks tenth best in overall DVOA.
Sam Darnold has been awful this season so it remains to be seen whether P.J Walker getting the start for the Panthers this week will be an upgrade or downgrade for Carolina's offense. Still, Walker has very little NFL experience and knows his own team doesn't believe in him since they signed Cam Newton this week to be the team's starting Quarterback as soon as he's ready. And the Cardinals defense has been fantastic all season as they rank second in overall DVOA, second in pass DVOA, and seventh in run DVOA.
|1||Dak Prescott||vs. Falcons||$6,900|
|2||Josh Allen||at Jets||$7,900|
|3||Russell Wilson||at Packers||$6,700|
|4||Aaron Rodgers||vs. Seahawks||$7,100|
Dak Prescott played terribly last week on the road against the Broncos but we love to see that from a tournament perspective since recency bias will creep in for many. Prescott still ranks tied for second in pass touchdowns per game (2.6) and fifth in pass yards per game (292.1) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks third in overall DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA. And he gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Priced at only $6,900, we're going right back to Prescott this week.
Like Dak Prescott, Josh Allen also played badly in Week 9. And like Prescott, Allen also has a chance to redeem himself in a favorable matchup against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Prior to last week, Allen had accounted for at least two total touchdowns in six straight games and at least three total touchdowns in four of six. Allen's dual-threat ability gives him slate-breaking upside on a weekly basis.
Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers both return to the lineup this Sunday in an exciting clash between the two future first-ballot Hall of Famers. Both are awesome tournament plays. Wilson hasn't played since Week 5 so don't expect his ownership percentages to be high at all. That's exciting since the 3-5 Seahawks have no choice but to turn to Wilson to save their season and shockingly, even with Wilson's missed time, Seattle's offense still ranks eighth in overall DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA. And Rodgers gets to play at home against a Seahawks defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA. Rodgers has been so good this season, Green Bay's offense still ranks 11th in overall DVOA and ninth in pass DVOA despite Jordan Love stinking up the joint in Week 9.
|1||Austin Ekeler||vs. Vikings||$7,600|
|2||Christian McCaffrey||at Cardinals||$8,400|
|3||Dalvin Cook||at Chargers||$8,000|
|4||Ezekiel Elliott||vs. Falcons||$7,000|
|5||Leonard Fournette||at Washington||$6,100|
The affordable no-brainer Running Back plays available to us this week such as James Conner and D'Ernest Johnson will produce some exciting low ownership percentages for other stud Running Backs in tournaments. Let's start with Austin Ekeler, who will likely go overlooked after his dud in Week 9 where he only produced 82 total yards. Still, he saw 20 opportunities in that game and ranks 12th in opportunities per game (18.3). Ekeler offers immense dual-threat upside in this spot as he already has 45 targets and 35 catches on the year and gets a favorable home matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in run DVOA.
Christian McCaffrey was "eased" back in last week playing only 49% of the snaps. Still, he saw 19 opportunities and totaled 106 all-purpose yards. This is a tough spot for McCaffrey on paper as the Panthers will be starting their backup Quarterback, P.J. Walker, on the road against one of the best teams and defenses in football. But McCaffrey also could legitimately receive 30+ touches if Carolina decides to use McCaffrey as the ultimate crutch for Walker. And the tournament mindset theory is an easy one. It's extremely rare to be able to roster McCaffrey at low ownership percentages like we can this weekend.
Dalvin Cook ranks fourth in opportunities per game (23) and has a great matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last in run DVOA. And the Vikings are only 3.5 point underdogs on the road, implying Vegas believes this game is essentially a toss-up on a neutral field. It would be awesome to see Cook repeatedly attack the league's worst run defense but even if the Vikings fall behind, Cook is not game script dependent since he's a great pass-catcher as well and utilized in that capacity a ton within this Vikings offense.
Ezekiel Elliott had a down game last week but so did the entire Cowboys team. Let's throw that game out and realize Elliott still ranks sixth in opportunities per game (19.6) and the Cowboys are eight-point home favorites against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 27th in run DVOA.
Leonard Fournette ranks 14th in opportunities per game (17.5) and projects to be relied upon more both on the ground and through the air with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski already ruled out and Chris Godwin a game-time decision. Fournette is the beneficiary of being the lead back on a Buccaneers offense led by Tom Brady that ranks first in overall DVOA, first in pass DVOA, and seventh in run DVOA. And while Washington's defense does rank 10th in run DVOA, this still looks to be a good matchup for Fournette overall as the Buccaneers are 9.5 point favorites against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA.
|1||CeeDee Lamb||vs. Falcons||$7,000|
|2||Amari Cooper||vs. Falcons||$6,200|
|3||Stefon Diggs||at Jets||$7,500|
|4||Jakobi Meyers||vs. Browns||$4,800|
|5||Tyler Johnson||at Washington||$3,300|
|6||James Washington||vs. Lions||$3,500|
|7||DK Metcalf||at Packers||$6,800|
|8||Tyler Lockett||at Packers||$6,500|
|9||Davante Adams||vs. Seahawks||$7,900|
|10||Mike Williams||vs. Vikings||$6,600|
I wrote up why I'm a big fan of Dak Prescott in tournaments this week in the Quarterback section. Prescott ranks tied for second in pass touchdowns per game (2.6) and fifth in pass yards per game (292.1) and leads a Cowboys offense that ranks third in overall DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA. And the matchup is fantastic at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. So naturally, I like his stud Wide Receivers as well. It's important to note Michael Gallup will return this week and is a tournament Hail Mary play in his own right but I'm focusing on CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, at least for this week. Lamb (8.3 targets per game) and Cooper (7.6 targets per game) both offer extreme upside if Prescott hits his high range of outcomes in the game with the highest Over/Under of the entire week (55).
I also wrote up why I like Josh Allen in a favorable matchup against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. And if Allen bounces back this week, odds are Stefon Diggs will as well. Diggs ranks tied for 11th in the entire league in targets per game (9.1) yet has only produced one 100+ yard game and three touchdowns on the year. Diggs is due for some positive regression in production and the Jets swiss cheese defense is likely more than happy to oblige.
Jakobi Meyers averages a respectable eight targets per game and can see significant volume in the right game script as his 14 targets in a loss against the Saints earlier this season show. This game has the potential to be very competitive, which could do wonders for the game script necessary for Meyers to hit his ceiling. If so, things get very exciting since James White is already out for the season, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are both looking very iffy while still in the concussion protocol, and the Browns defense only ranks 19th in pass DVOA. I'm flag-planting Meyers this week.
Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are both out and Chris Godwin is a Game Time Decision. The Buccaneers play an early game on Sunday so if Godwin is ruled out, Tyler Johnson all of a sudden becomes very interesting. It is important to note Scotty Miller reportedly has a chance to return to the lineup himself on Sunday and that is something else you should be monitoring. But nonetheless, Johnson has played on 67% and 64% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks and just saw six targets a week ago. We want exposure to Tom Brady in a great matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA and Johnson provides the ability to get it at only $3,300.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool are both out and that propels James Washington right into the WR2 spot in Pittsburgh. Washington has already been involved in the offense as he's played on 46% and 57% of the offensive snaps, respectively, over the past two weeks. And he was an even bigger part of the offense earlier in the season when Diontae Johnson and Claypool missed time. Washington played on 80% of the offensive snaps in Week 3 with Johnson out and 82% of the offensive snaps in Week 4 with Claypool out. Washington will be out there and is only $3,500 in a favorable matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA.
Russell Wilson's return immediately puts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett back on the map in a fun fantasy game against the Packers. Metcalf is the preferred play as he ranks tied for second in the league in touchdown receptions (8) despite not having Wilson since Week 5. Yet Lockett's chemistry with Wilson is unmatched and both project to be heavily involved in the game plan as the 3-5 Seahawks need wins in a competitive NFC Conference and they need them fast.
Aaron Rodgers will return this week and that's huge news for Davante Adams. Adams ranks third in targets per game (10.9) and gets to play in one of my favorite fantasy games against a Seahawks defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
Mike Williams has had three down games in a row in which he has only seen five targets in each. Still, he started out the season red-hot and benefits from playing in an aggressive offense led by Head Coach Brandon Staley and Quarterback Justin Herbert. Patrick Peterson is on Injured Reserve as well, which should help. The Chargers are at home in an interesting fantasy game against the Vikings and Williams is now priced at only $6,600.
|1||Dallas Goedert||at Broncos||$4,700|
|2||Gerald Everett||at Packers||$2,600|
|3||O.J. Howard||at Washington||$2,700|
|4||Geoff Swaim||vs. Saints||$2,500|
Dallas Goedert's role has grown significantly since Zach Ertz was traded. Goedert has played on 93%, 68% (Lions blowout), and 93% of the offensive snaps over the past three weeks. Unfortunately, Goedert's increased playing time occurred at the same time the Eagles decided to shift their offensive philosophy to a more run-heavy approach. But on the road in Denver, the Eagles are two-point underdogs, which brings some hope they could pass more in this matchup. Either way, the Eagles don't have many weapons outside of Goedert and DeVonta Smith, which should create upside weeks for Goedert when the game flow works out in this favor. This could be one of those spots.
No one is going to play Gerald Everett. He missed some time earlier this year and hasn't had Russell Wilson since Week 5. Both will play on Sunday and Everett played on 77% of the offensive snaps and ran 22 pass routes compared to DK Metcalf's 25 and Tyler Lockett's 21 in Week 8 prior to Seattle's bye. Everett is the third option in Seattle's passing game and could pop up for a boom week in a favorable fantasy game on Sunday.
Rob Gronkowski won't play this week and neither will Antonio Brown. Chris Godwin is also a Game Time Decision. O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate split the playing time in Gronkowski's absence earlier this season but it's Howard who offers the higher upside. In Week 6, Howard caught six of seven passes for 49 yards and a touchdown and now he gets a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.
Geoff Swaim is priced at the bare minimum $2,500 and I'm not sure why. Swaim has emerged as the Titans' #1 TE, catching eight passes on nine total targets and scoring a touchdown in each game over the past two weeks. Derrick Henry is out and Julio Jones is once again questionable to play. The Titans don't have playmakers outside of A.J. Brown and will have to rely on their Tight Ends to help out in the passing game.
|1||Cleveland Browns||at Patriots||$2,800|
|2||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||at Washington||$3,500|
The Browns defense ranks 12th best in overall DVOA and will likely get to face rookie Mac Jones without New England's top Running Backs. James White is already out for the season and both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are looking very iffy to play while still in the concussion protocol. New England should be forced into a more pass-heavy gameplan and that should be music to Myles Garrett's ears. Their $2,800 price tag is very palatable as week since we love to pay down at D/ST in tournaments.
The Buccaneers are 9.5 point favorites and Washington has the sixth-lowest Implies Team Total of the entire week (20.8). And Taylor Heinicke is tied for throwing the fourth most interceptions (9) on the year.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Russell Wilson and D'Wayne Eskridge both IN - Upgrade Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, D'Wayne Eskridge, and Gerald Everett
- Aaron Rodgers In - Upgrade Packers offense
- Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Demetric Felton, and John Kelly all OUT - Upgrade D'Ernest Johnson
- Alvin Kamara OUT - Upgrade Mark Ingram II
- Derrick Henry OUT and Julio Jones Questionable - Upgrade A.J. Brown
- Chase Edmonds OUT - Upgrade James Conner
- Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski OUT and Chris Godwin is a Game Time Decision - Upgrade Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, and Scotty Miller if he's activated on Saturday
- Chase Claypool OUT and Eric Ebron IN - Upgrade Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, James Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and Eric Ebron
- Chris Carson OUT - Upgrade Alex Collins
- Jamaal Williams OUT - Upgrade D'Andre Swift
- Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tajae Sharpe, Russell Gage, and Olamide Zaccheaus
- Blake Jarwin OUT - Upgrade Dalton Schultz
- Sam Darnold OUT and P.J. Walker will reportedly get the start - Upgrade Cardinals D/ST
- Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Rondale Moore all Questionable - Upgrade Panthers D/ST if any sit
- James Robinson Questionable - Upgrade Carlos Hyde if Robinson sits
- Miles Sanders OUT - Upgrade Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell
- Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are both still in the concussion protocol - Upgrade Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor if they sit
- Joey Bosa Questionable - Upgrade the Vikings offense if Bosa sits
- Zach Wilson OUT - Upgrade Mike White
- Jameis Winston OUT and Taysom Hill IN but Trevor Siemian will reportedly start at Quarterback - Upgrade Trevor Siemian
- Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel both OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, DeAndre Carter, and Adam Humphries
- Zack Moss Questionable - Upgrade Devin Singletary if Moss sits
- Odell Beckham Jr Released - Upgrade Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, Austin Hooper, and David Njoku
- Patrick Peterson OUT - Upgrade Chargers passing game
- Dawson Knox IN - Upgrade Dawson Knox
- T.Y. Hilton IN - Upgrade T.Y. Hilton
- A.J. Green IN - Upgrade A.J. Green
- Michael Gallup IN - Upgrade Michael Gallup
- Noah Fant IN - Upgrade Noah Fant
- Tyron Smith OUT - Upgrade Falcons D/ST
- Garrett Bradbury (Vikings C) OUT - Upgrade Charges D/ST
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz
- Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Kyle Pitts
- Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
- Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
- Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett