Cracking DraftKings Week 11

Photo: Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 56.5
• Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 49.5
• Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 47.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Titans at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 27.3
• Browns at home vs. the Lions - Implied Team Total 27.5
• 49ers on the road against the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 25.8
• Bengals on the road against the Raiders - Implied Team Total 25.8
• Ravens on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 25.3
• Dolphins on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 24
• Panthers at home vs. Washington - Implied Team Total 23

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Clearly, all analysis of this slate should begin with the eye-popping 56.5 total between the Cowboys and the Chiefs. Dallas ranks fourth in offensive DVOA and Dak Prescott has the Cowboys ranked second in offensive pass DVOA. Meanwhile, Kansas City ranks fifth in offensive DVOA and Patrick Mahomes II has the Chiefs ranked eighth in offensive pass DVOA. Both Quarterbacks are tied for second in the league in pass touchdowns per game (2.5). This contest is very likely to be awesome yet both Quarterbacks find themselves in the Cash Game section simply because everyone else knows we're headed for a likely shootout as well. Still, Prescott and Mahomes are incredible tournament linchpins as well, we just know we'll need to make sure our lineup as a whole ends up with some contrarian pieces so we still have a chance to take down a tournament in solo first place. Mahomes gets to play at home while Prescott has the better matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.

It's been very strange how the Dolphins have handled Tua Tagovailoa for two years straight. Tagovailoa apparently wasn't healthy enough to start last week but he was able to take the place of a cleared to return Jacoby Brissett to lead the Dolphins to a victory over the Ravens while throwing for 158 yards and adding a rush touchdown. Forgetting all of that for just this week since this is Daily Fantasy we're playing, Tagovailoa has an incredible matchup against a horrendous Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. And he has proven he can produce in favorable matchups when making it through games healthy as he's put up 25.4 and 28.5 DraftKings points against the Jaguars and Falcons already this season.

Head Coach Matt Rhule reported Cam Newton will start for the Panthers this week. However, he also stated P.J. Walker will "probably" play some as well. This is a thin recommendation since there's a chance Walker could annoy us. Still, Newton is only $5,100 and gets to play at home against a Washington defense that just lost Chase Young to injury and that ranks 27th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. Newton's upside as a dual-threat is always on display when he's on the field and just in case anyone forgot he reminded us last week rushing in a score and throwing for another in very limited work.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey was tackled near the goal-line multiple times and vultured by Cam Newton and Chuba Hubbard last week. He still put up 26.1 DraftKings points. McCaffrey is all the way back to being the clear #1 option in fantasy, he ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22.2), and gets to play at home against a Washington defense that just lost Chase Young and that ranks 27th in overall DVOA. Lock him in.

Nick Chubb has been activated from the COVID-19 list and will play at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA. Chubb ranks 11th in opportunities per game (18.3) and plays on the Browns who rank first in offensive run DVOA. The Browns are 12.5 point favorites against a Lions team that reportedly will be starting Tim Boyle.

This Cowboys at Chiefs game has an eye-popping 56.5 total and Ezekiel Elliott has a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 26th in run DVOA. Elliott ranks ninth in the league in opportunities per game (19.3) and offers multi-touchdown upside just like he produced last week in a game that should produce plenty of points.

Aaron Jones' absence means it's go time for the beast that is A.J. Dillon. Dillon turned 23 opportunities into 128 total yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks last week and now gets a Vikings defense that ranks 28th in run DVOA. At $6,200, Dillon is underpriced by at least $1,000.

Alvin Kamara will miss his second-straight game, meaning Mark Ingram projects for heavy usage once again after he turned 21 opportunities into 108 total yards and a touchdown last week against the Titans. Like A.J. Dillon, Ingram is also severely underpriced in a decent matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 20th in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ranks second in targets per game (11.1) and gets to play at home in by far the best fantasy game of the week. Many points are projected to be scored in this one and Hill, who has eight touchdowns already on the year is one of the best bets to find the end zone.

With Amari Cooper out, CeeDee Lamb becomes almost as good of a bet as Tyreek Hill in this incredible fantasy game. Lamb already ranks tied for 21st in targets per game (8.1) and that number projects to grow on Sunday against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. And Michael Gallup, priced at only $4,200, is now an awesome play with Cooper out. Gallup only played on 53% of the offensive snaps last week yet still caught three of five targets for 42 yards. Look for Gallup's playing time and usage to spike drastically.

Stefon Diggs ranks tied for seventh in targets per game (9.6) and just caught eight of 13 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown last week against the Jets. Playing at home against a Colts defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA, Diggs looks to be in another great spot on Sunday.

Deebo Samuel has been incredible this season. He leads all Wide Receivers on this slate in DraftKings points per game (23.3), ranks tied for seventh in the league in targets per game (9.6), and has found pay dirt a total of seven times. Samuel projects to keep it going this week in an awesome matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.

It sounds silly to say but Cam Newton's presence projects to stabilize D.J. Moore's fantasy value a bit since Sam Darnold was simply just not getting it done prior to injury. Moore ranks ninth in the league in targets per game (9.5) and gets to play at home against a Washington defense that just lost Chase Young to injury and that ranks 27th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. He's priced at only $5,900.

In the last two games without Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow has caught 14 of 18 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Renfrow has become a very solid option and now gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA.

Allen Robinson is listed as Doubtful and if he sits, Darnell Mooney will become the clear-cut #1 passing option for Chicago on Sunday. Mooney already leads the Bears in targets (59), catches (36), receiving yards (45), and receiving touchdowns (2) on the season and he gets to play at home against a Ravens defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ranks tied for 13th in the entire league in targets per game (8.9) and gets to play in this Cowboys at Chiefs game with an eye-popping 56.5 total. He's the best Tight End play of the week.

Marquise Brown is listed as Questionable although it doesn't appear he's in much danger to miss this game. Still, Brown's presence on the injury report projects favorably for Mark Andrews' prospects in this game against a Bears defense missing Khalil Mack that only ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA. And after starting the season with back-to-back five target outings, Andrews has only seen fewer than seven targets once in his past seven games.

Dan Arnold's $4,100 price tag still doesn't match his production. Arnold has hit double-digit DraftKings points in four of five games with the Jaguars excluding the Thursday Night Game where he had only been with the team for a few days. He has seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games as well. Arnold gets to play at home in this one against a 49ers defense that ranks 20th in pass DVOA.

Allen Robinson is listed as Doubtful and if he sits, Cole Kmet will be needed on Sunday. Kmet ranks third on the Bears in targets (44), receptions (28), and receiving yards (284) and would project to step right in as the #2 option behind Darnell Mooney if Robinson is out. Playing at home against a Ravens defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA, Kmet offers a low owned, affordable option at the Tight End position where we like to look for just that recipe in tournaments.

Team Defenses

The Lions rank 31st in offensive DVOA and with Jared Goff listed as Doubtful, project to turn to Tim Boyle at Quarterback. Boyle will be making his first career NFL start. The Lions have the lowest Implied Team Total (15) of the entire week.

The Texans rank dead last in offensive DVOA and the Titans rank 12th best in defensive DVOA. The Titans are 10 point home favorites and the Texans have the second lowest Implied Team Total (17.3) of the entire week.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen took advantage of a horrendous Jets defense last week throwing for 366 yards and two scores and his day could've been even bigger had the team not run for a combined four touchdowns, which doesn't usually happen. More boom or bust than he was last season, Allen fits the mold of a high-upside tournament play at home against a Colts defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA. Just two weeks ago, the Colts allowed 412 pass yards and four pass touchdowns to the combination of Mike White and Josh Johnson.

Joe Burrow ranks ninth in pass yards per game (277.4) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2). This is a matchup that could ignite Burrow as he gets to face a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA. Since the Bengals had their bye last week, fewer people are thinking about Burrow. Plus his $6,600 price tag is very appealing.

Lamar Jackson struggled last week against the immense pressure the Dolphins were able to bring yet I struggle to envision the Bears replicating that strategy without Khalil Mack on the field. Chicago's defense only ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA. Meanwhile, Jackson ranks seventh in the entire league in rush yards (639) and tenth in pass yards (271.9).

Aaron Rodgers struggled mightily after returning from his COVID-19 absence last week, which presents a buying opportunity in tournaments for the 2020 NFL MVP. This Packers at Vikings game has sneaky shootout potential and Rodgers leads a Packers offense that ranks seventh in overall DVOA and 11th in pass DVOA.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ranks third in the league in opportunities per game (23.9) and gets to play at home against a Packers defense that ranks 24th in run DVOA. Minnesota prefers to run the ball on offense and that's Green Bay's weakness on defense. The last time the Vikings played the Packers was Week 7 of 2020 and Cook turned 33 opportunities into 226 total yards and four touchdowns. The upside is there.

Joe Mixon ranks seventh in opportunities per game (19.6) and gets a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 16th in run DVOA. The Bengals were on bye in Week 10 and there are a lot of incredible stud Running Back plays as well as affordable options. Mixon projects to go overlooked.

Myles Gaskin has seen 42 total opportunities over the past two weeks and how gets to play in an incredible matchup against the awful Jets defense that ranks dead last in overall DVOA and 31st in run DVOA. Malcolm Brown is still out due to injury.

James Conner continues to operate as Arizona's lead Running Back in the absence of Chase Edmonds. Even in a horrible game script where Arizona got beat down by the Panthers last week, Conner still turned 14 opportunities into 64 total yards and a touchdown. Conner will likely be in a more favorable game script this week against a struggling Seahawks team and defense that only ranks 21st in overall DVOA.

Elijah Mitchell is Doubtful and JaMycal Hasty is out. That catapults Jeff Wilson right into the starting lineup in a game where the 49ers are 6.5 point favorites against the Jaguars. Wilson is a veteran on the 49ers so we shouldn't have to worry about Kyle Shanahan limiting his work in this spot against a Jaguars defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA. Just know Jacksonville has been pretty solid against the run this season as they rank seventh in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown only caught one pass for 16 yards last week, which presents a buying opportunity in tournaments. In Weeks 7 and 8, Brown combined for 18 receptions on 20 targets for 288 yards and two touchdowns. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out meaning Brown essentially is the Titans offense. Playing at home against the lowly Texans, Brown has nuclear upside.

Davante Adams disappointed many last week, as did the entire Packers passing offense, yet he still caught seven of 11 targets for 78 yards. Going right back to Adams in tournaments makes sense in a sneaky shootout with the Vikings as Adams still ranks third in targets per game (10.9).

Justin Jefferson was called upon when needed last week in a tough matchup with the Chargers, catching nine of 11 targets for 143 yards. Jefferson now ranks 15th in the league in targets per game (8.8) and projects to be needed once again in a big way in a tough division matchup with the Packers. Green Bay's defense has been solid as of late so this is more of a volume meets great player combination from a tournament standpoint.

JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins both rank 21st in targets per game (8.1) and both are in a great spot against a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA. Chase offers the big-play potential as he ranks fifth in the league in receiving yards (835) and tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns (7). But Higgins offers the value as he's priced at only $5,400.

Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf had to operate without Russell Wilson for about a month and then dealt with Wilson's rust in his return last week against the Packers. Arizona has one of the best defenses in football so this is more of a tournament theory play than it is a recommendation based on matchup. But Seattle does get to play at home. Kyler Murray is a Game Time Decision once again, and if Wilson was able to shake off the rust last week both Lockett and Metcalf offer upside at projected low ownership percentages. Lockett and Metcalf, along with Wilson, are the heart and soul of the Seahawks offense and both players had a lot of unrealized air yards a week ago. Should things go different on Sunday, things would get very interesting very quickly.

Marquise Brown is listed as Questionable although it doesn't appear he's in much danger to miss this game. Still, Brown's presence on the injury report projects favorably for Rashod Bateman's prospects in this game against a Bears defense missing Khalil Mack that only ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA. Bateman has caught 11 of 16 targets for 132 yards over his past two games.

Tight Ends

With the return of Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz played his lowest offensive snap percentage of the season (66%) last week. Yet now that Amari Cooper has been ruled out, look for Schultz to be right back in that 80%+ playing time category. That's huge for a Tight End priced at only $4,600 playing in the best fantasy game of the week against a Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.

George Kittle's triumphant return over the past two weeks has produced 11 receptions on 15 targets for 151 yards and two touchdowns. He's an exciting tournament play in this one against a Jaguars defense that ranks 28th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.

The more I think about and write up this game the more I think it has sneaky shootout potential. The narrative is Darren Waller has gone "cold" but he just caught seven of 11 targets for 92 yards two weeks ago. He gets to play at home in this one against a Bengals defense that ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA and the absence of Henry Ruggs should increase his volume as well.

Dallas Goedert left last week's game with a concussion but has been cleared to return to the lineup on Sunday. The masses have been afraid to roster players coming off of a concussion for years and it has created one of the best leverage spots in tournaments. With Zach Ertz no longer in town, Goedert and DeVonta Smith are the only two legitimate passing game weapons on the Eagles. Goedert offers upside here at a sure-to-be low ownership percentage.

Team Defenses

The Panthers defense ranks third in overall DVOA and gets to play at home in this one as three-point favorites. Carolina's offense should receive a spark from Cam Newton at the helm, which projects to put the Panthers defense in a favorable game script. Washington is tied for the sixth-lowest Implied Team Total of the week (20).

The Eagles get to play at home as 2.5 point favorites in this one against a banged-up Saints offense that will be without Alvin Kamara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and both of their starting Tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. Taysom Hill is listed as questionable as well. Thanks to all the injuries, the Eagles are a sneaky tournament D/ST that project to be low owned.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Aaron Jones OUT - Upgrade A.J. Dillon
• Nick Chubb IN - Upgrade Nick Chubb
• Amari Cooper and Blake Jarwin OUT - Upgrade CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and Cedrick Wilson
• Alvin Kamara OUT - Upgrade Mark Ingram
• Julio Jones and Geoff Swaim OUT - Upgrade A.J. Brown
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire status up in the air - Upgrade Darrel Williams if Edwards-Helaire sits
• Jared Goff Doubtful - Upgrade Browns D/ST
• Chase Edmonds OUT - Upgrade James Conner
• Elijah Mitchell Doubtful and JaMycal Hasty OUT - Upgrade Jeff Wilson
• DeAndre Hopkins OUT - Upgrade A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and Antoine Wesley
• Kyler Murray Game Time Decision - Upgrade Seahawks D/ST if Murray sits
• Chris Carson OUT - Upgrade Alex Collins
• Allen Robinson Doubtful - Upgrade Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet
• Marquise Brown Questionable - Upgrade Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Devin Duvernay if Brown sits
• Jamaal Williams Questionable but projected to return - Downgrade DAndre Swift
• Tyron Smith Questionable but expected to play - Upgrade Cowboys offense
• Taysom Hill Questionable and both Saints OTs Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk OUT - Upgrade Eagles D/ST
• Latavius Murray Questionable but expected to return - Downgrade the entire Ravens backfield
• James Robinson Questionable but expected to play - Upgrade Carlos Hyde if Robinson sits
• Jeremy McNichols OUT - Upgrade Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman
• Allen Lazard Doubtful and Robert Tonyan Jr OUT - Upgrade Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Randall Cobb
• Ricky Seals-Jones OUT and status of Logan Thomas is unclear - Upgrade John Bates if Thomas sits
• Miles Sanders Questionable - Upgrade Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell if Sanders sits
• Curtis Samuel Questionable - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, DeAndre Carter, and Adam Humphries if Samuel sits
• Chase Young OUT - Upgrade Panthers offense
• Khalil Mack OUT - Upgrade Ravens offense

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz
• Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
• Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Darren Waller
• Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs

Flag Plant Plays

• Christian McCaffrey
• Nick Chubb
• Michael Gallup
• Browns D/ST