- Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 49
- Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - Over/Under 43.5
- Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons - Over/Under 42.5
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Over/Under 44.5
Favorite Additional Spots
- Chargers on the road against the Texans - Implied Team Total 27.5
- Chiefs at home vs. the Steelers - Implied Team Total 26
- Eagles at home vs. the Giants - Implied Team Total 25.25
- Buccaneers on the road against the Panthers - Implied Team Total 27.25
|1||Matthew Stafford||at Vikings||$6,700|
|2||Joe Burrow||vs. Ravens||$5,900|
|3||Matt Ryan||vs. Lions||$5,400|
Matthew Stafford ranks third in pass yards per game (295.9) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Rams offense that ranks sixth in overall DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA. He's had an awesome season, highlighted by his insane immediate mind-meld with fantasy MVP Cooper Kupp. Stafford appears set up here to have yet another solid outing in a competitive game against a Vikings defense that ranks 16th in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA.
The 8-6 Ravens square off against the 8-6 Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday in a hugely important divisional clash with playoff ramifications on the line. Zac Taylor has proven he prefers a balanced offensive attack yet perhaps the competitiveness of this game and the matchup pushes the Bengals offense to pass more. The Ravens defense ranks fifth in run DVOA and only 29th in pass DVOA and recently lost Cornerback, Marlon Humphrey. Joe Burrow certainly has the weapons at his disposal to produce, especially while priced at only $5,900.
Matt Ryan hasn't had an impressive season and appears on the downswing of his career at 36 years of age. Yet, we might be able to squeeze at least one more usable week out of him here in Week 16. Ryan gets to play at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA and with Jared Goff out and the Lions offense projected to struggle, Ryan should receive plenty of chances to take advantage.
|1||Ronald Jones II||at Panthers||$5,100|
|2||Alexander Mattison||vs. Rams||$6,800|
|3||James Robinson||at Jets||$5.900|
|4||David Montgomery||at Seahawks||$5,700|
Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard are both out, leaving Ronald Jones II as the main Running Back in the valuable Tampa Bay backfield led by Tom Brady. Jones is a talented rusher who totaled 978 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground last season prior to losing the starting job to Fournette. The Buccaneers are 10.5 point favorites and Jones gets to attack a Panthers defense that ranks 24th in run DVOA.
Dalvin Cook ranks second in the league in opportunities per game (24.6) and has seen a total of 61 opportunities over the past two weeks. With Cook out, those chances will now be given to Alexander Mattison, who was activated from the COVID list this week. The Vikings are one of the few teams that ride a workhorse Running Back, no matter whether it's Cook or Mattison. Mattison is in a great spot in a fun fantasy game against the Rams.
With Urban Meyer out of the picture, James Robinson saw a season-high 24 opportunities and turned them into 88 total yards and a touchdown. Robinson now gets to attack a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and run DVOA.
David Montgomery ranks tenth in opportunities per game (19.9) and has seen 22 total targets over the past three weeks. Montgomery is a dual-threat that gets to attack a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA. And while the Seahawks are 6.5 point favorites in this spot, I'm not so sure I agree with that line since Seattle's offense has essentially been stuck in the mud all season.
|1||Cooper Kupp||at Vikings||$9,100|
|2||Tyreek Hill||vs. Steelers||$8,400|
|3||Justin Jefferson||vs. Rams||$8,100|
|4||Keenan Allen||at Texans||$7,700|
|5||Russell Gage||vs. Lions||$5,900|
|6||Amon-Ra St. Brown||at Falcons||$5,600|
Cooper Kupp is your 2021 fantasy football MVP. He's currently sitting on 1,625 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns with three games left to play. His connection with Matthew Stafford is unmatched and there is no reason to worry about a matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 16th in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA.
Travis Kelce remains on the COVID list and his status reportedly won't be determined until Sunday morning. Either way, Tyreek Hill has cleared the protocol and is in a fantastic spot at home against a Steelers defense that has been struggling mightily this year, as they rank 20th in overall DVOA. Hill is uncoverable and the possibility of receiving even more targets if Kelce sits is a scary thought.
Justin Jefferson is arguably the most talented Wide Receiver in all of football. He ranks seventh in targets per game (9.8), tied for sixth in receptions (89), second in receiving yards (1,335), and tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns (9). The 7-7 Vikings are desperately trying to keep their playoff hopes alive against the Rams, which means Jefferson will be relied upon heavily regardless of whether Adam Thielen is able to return or not.
Austin Ekeler was placed on the COVID list on Wednesday so it will be important to monitor whether he is able to return prior to Sunday or not. Keenan Allen is a fantastic start either way but he would skyrocket into near must-play territory should Ekeler miss. Allen ranks tied for fifth in targets per game (10.3), fifth in receptions (92), tied for 12th in receiving yards (1,007), and has added five touchdowns as well. The 8-6 Chargers are still fighting to lock in a playoff spot and thus shouldn't take it easy on the Texans at all. This is a spot where Herbert and company could absolutely dominate.
Over the past seven games, Russell Gage has averaged eight targets per game and his stat lines over his past four games are as follows: 6-62-1, 11-130-0, 4-64-0, and 8-91-1. Gage is a solid volume play at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA and all of a sudden looks really good as he made two incredible "You Got Mossed" catches in Week 15.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's averages over his past three games are pretty sweet: 11.7 targets, 8.7 catches, 83 receiving yards, and 0.67 touchdowns. He now gets to play in a low-key fun fantasy game against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Just know Jared Goff is out for this one.
|1||Mark Andrews||at Bengals||$7,000|
|2||Dawson Knox||at Patriots||$5,300|
|3||Foster Moreau||vs. Broncos||$3,600|
Mark Andrews has been on an absolute tear since the Ravens' Week 8 bye. In seven games since Andrews has averaged 10.1 targets and over his past two games has totaled 21 catches for 251 yards and three touchdowns. Andrews is a volume play who has the elite talent to overcome his questionable quarterback situation this week.
Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are both out while on the COVID list, which makes Dawson Knox's contributions all that much more important in a critical divisional clash against the New England Patriots. New England's defense is not a favorable matchup but Knox will have volume on his side in this one.
Darren Waller is doubtful, meaning Foster Moreau should once again play a key role for the Raiders. Moreau played on 100% of the offensive snaps and caught seven of nine targets for 65 yards last week. He'll now take aim against a Broncos defense that ranks 21st in overall DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA.
|1||Kansas City Chiefs||vs. Steelers||$3,500|
|2||Philadelphia Eagles||vs. Giants||$3,600|
|3||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||at Panthers||$4,100|
The Chiefs have been playing much better defense as of late and are eight-point home favorites against a struggling Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have the fourth lowest Implied Team Total (18) of the entire week and will be without Pat Freiermuth.
Daniel Jones is done for the year and reports are Jake Fromm will be getting his first start for the Giants this week on the road in Philadelphia. The Eagles are ten-point favorites and the Giants have the lowest Implied Team Total (15.25) of the week.
The Buccaneers are 10.5 point favorites and the Panthers have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (16.75) of the week. Reports are Cam Newton and Sam Darnold might be in some sort of timeshare this week at Quarterback as well. I'll happily bet against that.
|1||Justin Herbert||at Texans||$7,200|
|2||Jalen Hurts||vs. Giants||$6,400|
|3||Patrick Mahomes II||vs. Steelers||$7,700|
Justin Herbert ranks fourth in pass yards per game (289.9) and tied for third in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Chargers offense that ranks third in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Herbert is a budding superstar and has an aggressive Head Coach in Brandon Staley going for it on fourth down every chance he gets. The 8-6 Chargers are still fighting to lock in a playoff spot and thus shouldn't take it easy on the Texans at all. This is a spot where Herbert could absolutely dominate and that upside is worth chasing in tournaments.
Coming back in Week 15 after a brief absence due to injury, Jalen Hurts put it together as a passer against Washington completing 20 of 26 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown. That's significant since Hurts also ranks 26th in the entire league in rush yards per game (56.4) and is tied for fourth in rush touchdowns (10). Hurts' dual-threat upside is tantalizing and he gets to play at home in this one against a Giants defense that ranks 19th in overall DVOA, 13th in pass DVOA, and 28th in run DVOA. The Eagles are 10 point favorites and with Daniel Jones out for the season the Giants offense struggling, Hurts should routinely be put in position to showcase his talents.
Patrick Mahomes II ranks fifth in pass yards per game (289.4) and tied for sixth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks fifth in overall DVOA and sixth in pass DVOA. He gets to play at home in this one against a Steelers defense that has been struggling mightily this year, as they rank 20th in overall DVOA.
|1||Miles Sanders||vs. Giants||$5,600|
|2||Cordarrelle Patterson||vs. Lions||$6,700|
|3||Clyde Edwards-Helaire||vs. Steelers||$5,800|
|4||Josh Jacobs||vs. Broncos||$6,000|
The Eagles are 10 point home favorites against a reeling Giants team. Miles Sanders has received 47 total opportunities over the past two games and now gets to set his sights on a Giants defense that only ranks 28th in run DVOA in a projected favorable game script. Sanders was on the injury report earlier in the week but he no longer has a designation and is ready to roll.
Poor timing for Cordarrelle Patterson to have his worst game of the season in Week 15, the first week of the fantasy football playoffs. But he's still averaging 17.8 opportunities per game over the past four weeks and he now gets to play at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in both overall DVOA and run DVOA. We can go right back to the well with Patterson and take advantage of lower ownership percentages since many owners got burned last week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has averaged 14.3 opportunities over his past four games since returning from injury. We'd like that number to be a bit higher and for Darrell Williams to be less involved but if those were true, Edwards-Helaire's ownership percentages would be much higher. Edwards-Helaire makes it into the tournament discussion this week because the Chiefs are eight-point home favorites and might actually be able to successfully utilize the running game against a bad Steelers defense that only ranks 20th in overall DVOA and 30th in run DVOA.
Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse as of late. He has averaged 20.5 opportunities per game over the past four weeks and now gets to play at home against a Broncos defense that projects to routinely be put in bad positions thanks to Drew Lock turning it over and/or struggling to move the Broncos offense. Plus the Broncos Defense has been susceptible to the run already this season as they only rank 21st in overall DVOA and 23rd in run DVOA. Jacobs' ceiling this week is very high.
|1||Antonio Brown||at Panthers||$4,900|
|2||Diontae Johnson||at Chiefs||$7,500|
|3||Hunter Renfrow||vs. Broncos||$6,800|
|4||Odell Beckham Jr||at Vikings||$5,300|
|5||Tee Higgins||vs. Ravens||$6,200|
|6||Ja'Marr Chase||vs. Ravens||$7,100|
|7||Jakobi Meyers||vs. Bills||$4,900|
Antonio Brown projects to return to the lineup this week immediately after the Buccaneers lost both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to injury. Brown returns to play with a Quarterback in Tom Brady who loves throwing to the talented wideout. Brown hasn't played since Week 6 so it's easy to forget just how involved he was early on in the season. Brown ranks tied for 16th in targets per game (8.4) and totaled 418 receiving yards and four touchdowns in just five games to begin the year. Brown is underpriced by at least $1,000.
Diontae Johnson ranks tied for second in targets per game (10.4), tied for eighth in receptions (86), tenth in receiving yards (1,028), and has added six touchdowns as well. The 7-6-1 Steelers have no plans to miss the playoffs under Mike Tomlin and during Ben Roethlisberger's last ride so expect them to try their best to pull out all the stops this week in Kansas City. Johnson has seen double-digit targets in 10 of 13 games on the year but did put up a dud last week. Take advantage of the recency bias here.
Hunter Renfrow disappointed fantasy managers last week, catching only three of five targets for 32 yards. Prior to Week 15 though, Renfrow went on a three-game tear posting stat lines of 8-134-0, 9-102-0, and 13-117-1. The Raiders and Broncos both sit at 7-7 so expect a competitive game with both teams holding onto the false hope of a possible playoff birth. Renfrow will play at home against a Broncos defense that only ranks 21st in overall DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA and that projects to routinely be put in bad positions thanks to Drew Lock turning it over and/or struggling to move the Broncos offense.
Odell Beckham Jr only caught one of his three targets for seven yards last week but prior to that, he had scored a touchdown in three straight games with the Rams. Beckham is priced affordably at $5,300, will be low-owned in part because of his poor performance last week, and has a decent matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 16th in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA.
The 8-6 Ravens square off against the 8-6 Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday in a hugely important divisional clash with playoff ramifications on the line. Zac Taylor has proven he prefers a balanced offensive attack yet perhaps the competitiveness of this game and the matchup pushes the Bengals offense to pass more. The Ravens defense ranks fifth in run DVOA and only 29th in pass DVOA and recently lost Cornerback, Marlon Humphrey. Enter both Tee Higgins (7.7 targets per game) and Ja'Marr Chase (7.3 targets per game). Both are fun tournament plays. Chase offers more home-run upside but Higgins' more affordable price tag is most appealing to me.
The Patriots had their bye in Week 14 and the week prior, attempted only three passes in the wind against Buffalo. Then, last week, the Patriots were forced into a more pass-heavy game script while playing from behind against the Colts, and in that contest, Jakobi Meyers saw 12 targets. Meyers only came down with six of those targets for 44 yards but there were multiple passes where Mac Jones and Meyers just nearly missed. Meyers quickly becomes a vital part of the offensive equation in New England in competitive games where they're forced to throw a bit more. In a competitive divisional clash against the Bills, this time without the strong winds negating Buffalo's offensive strengths, Meyers could be needed again in a big way and if so, you'll have a $4,900 receiver rostered at 7% or less.
|1||Rob Gronkowski||at Panthers||$6,200|
|2||Kyle Pitts||vs. Lions||$5,800|
|3||Dallas Goedert||vs. Giants||$5,100|
|4||Jared Cook||at Texans||$3,500|
Without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this week, Rob Gronkowski projects to be a significant part of the offense in a week where the Buccaneers have the third-highest Implied Team Total (27.25). Gronkowski has played on 82% or more of the offensive snaps in four straight weeks.
Kyle Pitts has the talent to post big weeks and this looks like it could be one of them at home against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA. Jared Goff is out for the Lions as well, meaning the Falcons offense projects to have the ball the majority of the time in this one.
Dallas Goedert is one of the best talents at the Tight End position in the NFL and the production is finally catching up after he was freed via the Zach Ertz trade. Over his past two games, Goedert has caught 13 passes for 240 yards and two touchdowns. He now gets to play at home against a Giants defense that ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 13th in pass DVOA.
Austin Ekeler's absence due to being on the COVID list combined with Donald Parham missing this game because of the concussion he suffered last week opens up multiple avenues for more chances this week for Jared Cook. Cook is priced at only $3,500 and will benefit from playing with Justin Herbert in a great spot against the Texans this week.
|1||Los Angeles Chargers||at Texans||$3,400|
|2||Las Vegas Raiders||vs. Broncos||$2,900|
|3||New England Patriots||vs. Bills||$2,900|
The Chargers are 9.5 point favorites and the Texans have the fourth lowest Implied Team Total (18) of the week. Priced at $3,400 and missing Joey Bosa, expect the Chargers D/ST to come in very low owned. There's upside here.
With Teddy Bridgewater sidelined Drew Lock will start at quarterback for the Broncos. Lock has a big arm and can make some wow throws but he's erratic, not accurate, and simply not good football. The Raiders get to play at home, are priced at only $2,900, and project to come in low owned.
The Patriots defense ranks first in overall DVOA, third in pass DVOA, and sixth in run DVOA. The Bills are largely a pass-first offense and when Josh Allen hasn't been completely on his game this year the offense has stalled. This could be one of those times the offense struggles. The Patriots are priced at only $2,900.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Dalvin Cook OUT - Upgrade Alexander Mattison
- Austin Ekeler on COVID list - Upgrade Justin Jackson
- Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard both OUT - Upgrade Ronald Jones II
- Travis Kelce on the COVID list - Upgrade Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, Josh Gordon, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Noah Gray, and Blake Bell
- Chris Godwin and Mike Evans OUT - Upgrade Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson, and Scotty Miller
- Mike Williams and Jalen Guyon both OUT - Upgrade Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Jared Cook, Justin Jackson, and Stephen Anderson
- Donald Parham OUT - Upgrade Jared Cook
- Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis both OUT - Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Dawson Knox
- Carlos Hyde OUT - Upgrade James Robinson
- Lamar Jackson likely OUT and Tyler Huntley on the COVID list - Upgrade Josh Johnson
- Rhamondre Stevenson OUT and Damien Harris Questionable - Upgrade Damien Harris if he plays and Brandon Bolden
- Adam Thielen Questionable - Upgrade Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen if he plays
- Brandin Cooks on COVID list - Upgrade Nico Collins and Chris Conley
- Darren Waller Doubtful - Upgrade Hunter Renfrow and Foster Moreau
- Pat Freiermuth OUT - Upgrade Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Ray-Ray McCloud III
- Justin Fields Not Starting and Andy Dalton OUT - Upgrade Nick Foles
- Jared Goff OUT - Upgrade Falcons D/ST
- D'Andre Swift Questionable - Upgrade D'Andre Swift if he plays
- T.J. Hockenson OUT and Josh Reynolds Questionable - Upgrade Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond
- Laviska Shenault Jr OUT - Upgrade Marvin Jones Jr and Laquon Treadwell
- Joey Bosa OUT - Upgrade Texans passing attack
- Teddy Bridgewater OUT - Upgrade Raiders D/ST
- Chris Jones on the COVID list - Upgrade the Steelers offense
- Daniel Jones OUT - Upgrade Eagles D/ST
- Sterling Shepard OUT and Kadarius Toney Questionable - Upgrade Kadarius Toney if he plays, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram
- TreDavious White OUT - Upgrade the Patriots passing attack
- Marlon Humphrey OUT - Upgrade the Bengals passing attack
- Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Russell Gage
- Corey Davis and Elijah Moore both OUT and Jamison Crowder Questionable - Upgrade Keelan Cole, Braxton Berrios, and Denzel Mims
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Jared Cook
- Patrick Mahomes II and Tyreek Hill
- Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins