Sunday Morning Update
Update #3: Sunday 12:17PM
Just realized I did not provide an update to the Sunday Only Lineup. Very Sorry. Here's what I'm thinking:
- QB Dak Prescott, $8,000
- RB KeShawn Vaughn, TB, $5,400
- RB Darrel Williams, KC, $6,600
- WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,700
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,000
- WR Devonta Smith, PHI, $6,200
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,400
- TD San Francisco, $3,700
Update #2: Sunday 1:00AM Good Start, No Changes
As we evaluate the lineup, it was a very strong start with Zay Jones coming up with 14.6 points.
There were also some key players who were popular who struggled.
Joe Mixon- 30% at $8,500 scored just 9.9 points
Tee Higgins- 50-60% at $6,900 scored just 1.5 points
Because of this I'm sticking with the updated lineup heading into tomorrow unless there is some additional information that comes out today.
- QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,000
- RB KeShawn Vaughn, TB, $5,400
- RB Darrel Williams, KC, $6,600
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $10,000
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,000
- WR Zay Jones, LV $5,300
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,400
- TD Las Vegas, $3,300
Update #1: Leonard Fournette is OUT Saturday 3:54PM EST
On one hand, glad that we got to know this news early, on the other hand it's a complete bummer as he was in such a good spot.
It's interesting because game theory is going to be so critical on this three day slate. We're going to have plenty of time to adjust, react, and potentially even change lineups as player results come in. For example, Tee Higgins is between 50-60% rostered in 50/50's, Josh Jacobs is about 40-50%, Darren Waller is 30%, while Zay Jones was just 20%. So depending on how these games go as well we will start to see how this slate shapes up.
For now, here is what I'm going with, but be sure to check back frequently this weekend as we'll be breaking down lineup changes based off of results that come in. You can also follow me on Twitter where I'll post when there is an update so you don't have to keep refreshing this page.
So where do we go from here?
The key thing here is how does the Tampa Bay backfield shake out. At this point there is still a lot of uncertainty, KeShawn Vaughn should see a majority of the workload and looks to be in a good spot at just $5,400. If the lineup is doing well, the theory is that we should keep Vaughn in the lineup, but if we start to fall behind taking a more unique approach such as Sony Michel could be an option. We will post all of that tomorrow in the Sunday Morning update.
- QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,000
- RB KeShawn Vaughn, TB, $5,400
- RB Darrel Williams, KC, $6,600
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $10,000
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,000
- WR Zay Jones, LV $5,300
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,400
- TD Las Vegas, $3,300
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- Kansas City (vs Pittsburgh) 29.5 points
- Tampa Bay (vs Philadelphia) 28.75 points
- Cincinnati (vs Las Vegas) 27.75 points
- LA Rams (vs Arizona) 27 points
- Dallas (vs San Francisco) 26.75 points
Week 18 Recap
Week 18 was a weird week. It ended up being profitable for me, although I’m not sure it should have been as I seemingly didn’t face a lot of James Conner. It seemed as if every person’s lineup was quite terrible and Devin Singletary once again was the key piece to victory. I faced a lot of Taysom Hill which ended up working out.
What went right?
- Devin Singletary once again was a critical piece if you wanted to cash as he started off slow which he typically does but ended the day with two critical touchdowns.
- Justin Jefferson ended up being a great play after he too started very slow as the Vikings made a fourth quarter comeback against the Bears. Jefferson ended up with over 100 yards and a touchdown which closed the gap between Jefferson and Cooper Kupp.
What went wrong?
- Jonathan Taylor was terrible as was the entire Colts team who missed the playoffs due to the loss to the Jaguars. Not much to say here other than football sometimes just doesn’t make sense.
- Tyler Huntley was bad, but it was salvaged by nearly every quarterback on this slate being horrendous. Josh Allen did not reach value, Taysom Hill was atrocious, with Tom Brady being the only playable quarterback who was even reasonably good last week (Brady was great)
Format
This week, we are primarily going to focus in on the Saturday-Monday slate. We will also be providing lineups for the Sunday only slate in case you view this article on Sunday Morning.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss this week due to a chest injury. With it being somewhat late notice, Darrel Williams becomes an excellent play this week at $6,600.
- James Conner is questionable this week with a shoulder injury. It looks like he won’t be able to play as he was not at practice on Friday.
- Leonard Fournette will be a game-time decision. This one is tough as we won’t know this one until Sunday. Fournette is an outstanding play if he is able to go as he is priced very affordably and had one of his best games of the season against the Eagles earlier this year. With no Antonio Brown or Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers could really use Fournette this week.
Strategy Thoughts: How to Approach Week 18
This week is a challenge based on the limited options and the salary cap playing a significant role. The key decision this week is whether to play Cooper Kupp. The key to this week is how much you like the $8,000 range with players such as Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, etc. For me, in that range, the only player that I would consider to have a floor similar to Cooper Kupp would be Deebo Samuel. However, Deebo is only $1,300 cheaper than Kupp which at that point I much prefer Kupp. Kupp just provides a safety to your lineups that no other player on this slate can provide.
Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
1 |
21.4 |
$8,000 |
Dak Prescott has thrown 12 touchdowns over his last three games. The Cowboys are unlikely to be able to run the ball against the vaunted 49ers defense, so expect a pass heavy approach from Dallas. Prescott has thrown for 3 or more touchdowns in 8 games this season. |
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2 |
19.5 |
$7,600 |
Stafford has hit a rough patch over the course of the last 3 weeks as he has thrown 7 interceptions over the last 3 games. Stafford has also thrown for less than 250 yard in 3 of their last 4 games. When this offense is clicking, $7,600 is a complete steal, but there is some significant risk with how poorly Stafford has been playing as of late. |
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3 |
21.6 |
$7,700 |
Hurts is the boom or bust player on this slate as at $7,700 he has significant upside based on his rushing ability. The problem is that the Buccaneers have a very strong run defense, but Josh Allen was able to run for over 100 yards against Tampa Bay earlier this season. |
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4 |
23.1 |
$8,700 |
Mahomes has tremendous upside, but surprisingly has topped 300 yards just three times since Week 3. The matchup is a much better rushing matchup than a passing matchup, but the Chiefs are the highest projected scoring team on this slate |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
1 |
15.5 |
$7,300 |
The big question this week is the health of Leonard Fournette, but assuming that he is healthy enough to play, he immediately jumps to the top of the board this week. Fournette checks all the boxes this week as he is a great receiving back averaging 6.5 receptions over his last 6 games, his team is more than a touchdown favorite, and the Buccaneers are missing two of their top receivers which should mean more of the game plan goes through Fournette. |
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2 |
Eli Mitchell |
14.2 |
$7,400 |
When healthy, Eli Mitchell has been a volume workhorse as he has 21 or more carries in each of his last five games while averaging 99 yards rushing per game. Mitchell is one of the few running backs on this slate that should be able to see over 20 carries. The matchup is less than ideal as the Cowboys have only allowed two 100-yard rushers this season. |
3 |
13.6 |
$6,600 |
Williams could not be in a better matchup this week as the Steelers run defense has been absolutely abysmal showcased by allowing 150 rushing yards to Latavius Murray last week. The Steelers are allowing 122 yards rushing per game and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire being out, Darrel Williams should see a significant amount of work in a game that they are big favorites at home. |
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4 |
13.1 |
$6,900 |
Devin Singletary has been on fire as of late. Singletary has scored six touchdowns over his last four games as he has taken full reign of this rushing attack. New England's run defense has struggled since Week 12 as they have allowed 4 100-yard rushers in that time period. The only reason that Singletary is not higher on this list is that the Patriots have shut down the Bills twice this season already on the ground. |
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5 |
10.6 |
$7,500 |
Damien Harris is in a unique position as most of his value has come from his touchdown efficiency as he has scored 8 touchdowns over his last 4 games. In his two games against the Bills this season, Harris has ran for over 100 yards in each of the two games and has four rushing touchdowns. The only concerns with Harris is that his floor if he doesn't score a touchdown is fairly low as evidenced by his last two games where he is averaging just 10 carries for 36 yards rushing. |
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6 |
16.8 |
$8,500 |
The problem with Joe Mixon is the price this week as at $8,500, he is just a little too expensive. Mixon has had an up and down season this year, but he had a massive game against the Raiders earlier this year which will likely spark some interest as he ran for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns which was one of his two 100-yard rushing performances on the season. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
1 |
10.9 |
$6,100 |
Christian Kirk struggled last week which may cause some people to come off of him this week, but the Rams secondary is extremely banged up as they signed Eric Weddle who has been retired for two seasons filling in for Jordan Fuller. Making matters worse the other safety Taylor Rapp is dealing with a concussion and has not yet been cleared. The Rams are coming off of a game in which three opposing receivers topped 90 yards. |
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2 |
21.2 |
$10,000 |
At $10,000, Kupp is a difficult decision this week. What you get with Kupp that no other player on this slate can provide is a level of security. Kupp has the highest touchdown probability on this slate, has the highest yardage projections, and should lead this slate in receptions. The only question when deciding on Kupp is determining the opportunity cost of the player you have to pay up to get. Deebo Samuel, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill all have ceilings similar to Kupp, but their floor is much lower than what Kupp's floor is on this slate. |
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3 |
13.2 |
$6,900 |
Higgins should be in a good spot in this game as Ja'Marr Chase is facing the much more difficult matchup in this game as he will see Casey Hayward for most of the day. Higgins will face Brandon Facyson who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season. The Bengals had a low output passing due to a game script and having a big lead. Higgins has topped 100 yards in four of his last six games. |
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4 |
8.9 |
$5,200 |
There aren't many salary relief plays on this slate, but Zay Jones is certainly one of them. At just $5,200, Jones has caught 5 or more passes in each of their last 5 games. The Bengals passing defense has been up and down throughout the season allowing 300+ passing yards to quarterbacks six times this season including to Josh Johnson, Mike White, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Justin Herbert |
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5 |
13.1 |
$7,300 |
Lamb is going to be popular on this slate, but I'm not sure that he should be with all of the options that are available. Lamb has not been a player that has been worth $7,300 as he has not scored a touchdown in each of his last seven games and is averaging just 53 yards per game. The matchup could be a good one, and Lamb is a solid GPP play as the 49ers have struggled against top tier wide receivers, but there just is not enough consistent production from Lamb to justify him this week. |
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6 |
14.2 |
$8,000 |
Tyreek Hill is an interesting case study as he has top end potential any time that he takes the field, but he has struggled over the last three games as he is averaging just 3 receptions for 20.3 yards per game. Hill is going to be somewhat popular as he is a great stacking opportunity with Patrick Mahomes II, but at $8,000 the price is too high considering how low his floor is this week. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
1 |
10.8 |
$6,200 |
Darren Waller struggled in his first game back, but at just $6,200 will play a critical role in this playoff game for the Raiders to win this week as they need someone else to compliment Hunter Renfrow. At $6,200, Waller has as much upside as any tight end on this slate. |
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2 |
10.9 |
$5,900 |
Goedert has shown that he has significant upside this season. Over the last four weeks, Goedert has topped 70 yards in three of those four games averaging 85 receiving yards per game. |
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3 |
9.9 |
$8,700 |
Ertz has developed as a nice complimentary piece for the Cardinals as he has become the safety valve for this team. Ertz has averaged 11 targets per game over his last four weeks. The only problem for Ertz is the lack of downfield ability and red zone chances as he has not scored a touchdown over his last six games. |
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Team Defense |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
1 |
Las Vegas Raiders |
6.9 |
$3,300 |
Cheap defense that allows you to spend up at other positions. Raiders held Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing offense in check last game. |
2 |
Dallas |
8.3 |
$4,100 |
Cowboys lead the NFL in turnovers. The 49ers have thrown two interceptions in each of their last two games. |
3 |
New England |
7.8 |
$3,800 |
Josh Allen has struggled in cold weather games which could open up opportunity for New England who are second in the NFL in interceptions. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 123.0)
- QB Dak Prescott, DAL, $8,000
- RB Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,300
- RB Darrel Williams, KC, $6,600
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $10,000
- WR Christian Kirk, ARI, $6,100
- WR Zay Jones, LV $5,300
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,400
- TD Las Vegas, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – FBG Optimal Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 125.5)
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $7,700
- RB Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,300
- RB Josh Jacobs, LV, $7,200
- WR Deebo Samuel, $8,700
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,900
- WR Zay Jones, LV $5,300
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex Darrel Williams, KC, $6,600
- TD Las Vegas, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Sunday Only Lineup(FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 120.9)
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,800
- RB Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,300
- RB Darrel Williams, KC, $6,600
- WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $8,700
- WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL, $7,300
- WR Devonta Smith, PHI, $6,200
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex Elijah Mitchell, SF, $7,400
- TD Las Vegas, $3,300