Dominate Your League
A Footballguys Premium Subscription will give you the edge with lineup and waiver wire advice tailored to your league.
Save Time, Win More with Footballguys.Join Now
All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
We may not know exactly which signal-caller will appear in the majority of our opponents’ lineups, but it’s a solid bet he’ll cost more than $7K. Patrick Mahomes II ($8,400), Tom Brady ($7,700), Lamar Jackson ($7,400), and Matthew Stafford ($7,100) are each playing as heavy favorites with high implied team totals. These studs will cannibalize each other’s popularity in the top salary tier, leaving the mid-range underexposed. Even fewer entrants will punt quarterback because the scoring gap between the upper and lower salary range is too much to make up, though Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500) could command modest attention due to his matchup (vs. ATL) and successful Week 6 return (25.36 DraftKings points).
Flip the Build: Jalen Hurts ($6,900) and Derek Carr ($6,000) are facing off in a boom/bust matchup in Las Vegas. Each side of that game warrants some exposure, but the best way to leverage common roster construction might be to pay up for a quarterback the crowd is overlooking. At $100 more than Jackson, Aaron Rodgers($7,500) qualifies. He’s always in play at Lambeau Field, and this week the Packers are implied to win big (-9) over a Washington defense that has given up the most fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks.
Derrick Henry ($9,200) is once again chalky despite his slate-high salary. As if Henry’s recent dominance weren’t enough, the public will be all over the Kansas City at Tennessee game and its 55.5-point total. It’s difficult to squeeze Henry, a high-end quarterback, and a luxury purchase at wide receiver under the cap, so light spending at RB2 feels like a necessity. The $5K range isn’t all too enticing but final injury reports could open up value, especially if Antonio Gibson is forced to sit, creating an expanded role for J.D. McKissic ($5,000). Those who fade Henry are most likely to do so in favor of two running backs in the $6K range, where the usual suspects are Darrell Henderson ($6,600), Leonard Fournette ($6,400), Chuba Hubbard ($6,100), and Darrel Williams ($5,800).
Flip the Build: Sandwiched between Henderson and Fournette in pricing, you’ll find Joe Mixon ($6,500) drawing little interest. Mixon was back near his normal workload and showed no ill effects from his ankle sprain last week. He makes for a great price pivot and adds leverage against Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the always popular Bengals passing game. Aaron Jones ($7,500) is priced alone in a tier no one will look to for running backs. The same logic that makes Rodgers enticing applies equally, if not more so, to Jones. Finally, Arizona is set up for the perfect James Conner ($5,600) game script in a home matchup against Houston they’re implied to win by 18.5 points.
Continue reading this article with a Daily Fantasy Pro subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, ESPN