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All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Patrick Mahomes II ($7,600) and Dak Prescott ($7,200) face each other in the game with this week’s highest implied point total (55.5 points). At only $400 more than Prescott, and coming off a vintage 39.24-point performance on primetime television, Mahomes will be the more popular of the two, but this game will be heavily stacked on both sides. Those who forego the Cowboys at Chiefs game when shopping for a quarterback will either spend up to Josh Allen ($8,100) or down to Cam Newton ($5,100), who is underpriced by $800-$900 relative to his rushing upside and red-zone role.
Flip the Build: The heavy concentration on Allen and Mahomes should allow us to get Lamar Jackson ($8,000) at his lowest roster percentage in weeks. No one expects a shootout in the Ravens at Bears game (O/U 45), but Baltimore is coming off extended rest and should be eager to bounce back after losing to the lowly Dolphins last Thursday night. Other quarterbacks with a high enough implied team total to hit their respective ceilings include Joe Burrow ($6,600), Ryan Tannehill ($6,700), and Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600).
Back-up running backs thrust into starting roles will take center stage in stock lineups. A.J. Dillon ($6,200) should have the highest roster percentage on the slate at any position in his first game with Aaron Jones sidelined. James Conner’s price mysteriously dropped by $200 after he played on 82% of the snaps in Chase Edmonds’ absence last week. Conner draws a Seahawks rush defense that trails only the Jets in PPR fantasy points allowed to enemy running backs. With Christian McCaffrey ($8,900), Nick Chubb ($7,800), D'Andre Swift ($7,000), and Myles Gaskin ($5,700) each in attractive spots, it looks like a week where the field will use a running back in the flex spot more often than not.
Flip the Build: If the public is bargain hunting for running backs in the $5K-$6K range, some of the position’s top projected scorers will go underexposed. Jonathan Taylor ($8,300), Dalvin Cook ($8,200), Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700), and Joe Mixon ($7,600) aren’t sneaky plays by any means, but they’re tough to fit under the cap alongside an expensive quarterback and WR1. Each is in a potentially high-scoring game environment and can easily be the player you need in lineups to finish inside the top 1% of a GPP.
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