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Week 11 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.
Who is one player you want to move off before league trade deadlines close?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I would be looking to move off anyone whose situation is likely to face a seachange in 2023, starting with the Buccaneers. What will Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette look like next year if Tom Brady leaves? Quarterback play around the league is heading in the wrong direction, and there are no plug-and-play answers for Tampa Bay.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit - There are many running backs in the league posting great numbers that are likely to struggle for similar roles in 2023. Let us take Jamaal Williams who is posting career-high numbers in Detroit. As a free agent, he may leave for greener pastures based on his play of late. In his previous five years, his highest end-of-year rank is 28th and never has he posted more than four rushing touchdowns in a season. A continuation of his performance is highly unlikely and I would try and offload while he is hot and has the maximum value.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City - Edwards-Helaire is someone dynasty owners need to cut bait on before the bottom drops out. The Chiefs had been quietly singing the praises of Isiah Pacheco before CEH went down to injury and now that he's back on IR, things don't look good for his future in KC. He is eligible to come off IR in time for the NFL playoffs, but most fantasy seasons will be done by week 16. 2024 is the final year of his rookie contract so best case he enters 2024 in competition with Pacheco. Worst case he's cut and could end up as a backup / RBBC somewhere else.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit - Williams has enjoyed an ideal combination of D'Andre Swift missing time (plus quizzically not playing much in recent weeks) and elite goal-line opportunities to fuel big touchdown numbers this year. Williams will enter free agency in the offseason as an older running back and exiting an ideal situation. If not contending, Williams is a strong sell for a 2nd+ or using as a vehicle to move into Round 1 or to a more cornerstone-level wide receiver.
Davis Mills, Houston - There are times this year that Houston looked to be on the right track in developing Davis Mills as their future starter. With the Texans continuing to lose and Mills unable to improve to the level required, a highly drafted rookie is going to be selected. It s hard to see Mills starting for the Texans this time next year so he must be moved to among the backups and potential starter area of my rankings
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco - All Jimmy Garoppolo does is win football games and play within his limits and those set by the coaching staff. As a fantasy option he is unlikely to be a regular starter, but be it with the 49ers and their excellent receiving options or in a new environment, Garoppolo deserves a decent bump in rankings to accommodate his performance level.
Justin Fields, Chicago - He's not Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. But Justin Fields is proving to be that dual-threat quarterback that can put up a ton of points in any given week. He's not consistent enough as a passer, and he doesn't have any weapons to work with. The offensive line makes it difficult for him to set up and the 'run-first' approach the Bears have this season keeps his ceiling lower than the guys mentioned above. But Fields is figuring it out. If the Bears don't kill him, or actually get him a legitimate receiving threat for next season, Fields will be an decent QB1 for your fantasy team.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets - Wilson is the low-hanging fruit of a bust-track young quarterback. Previous to this week, Wilson's TD-INT Rate Ratio was a 'replace immediately without a strong track record profile' 0.64 this season and 0.65 for this career to-date, versus the NFL average of 1.10. On the same week, Wilson was announced as being benched for Mike White heading into Week 12 and Davis Mills, whose TD-INT Rate Ratio is 0.62 on the season and 0.71 in his career, is also being replaced. Wilson has faded to QB29 in my dynasty rankings in a zone of backups and barely hanging on veterans with minimal upside left.
Trey Lance, San Francisco - Lance's season-ending injury greatly increased the odds of his never reaching starter-level prominence, but as we near the end of the season, it's worth raising him a full tier in rankings because the quarterback situation gets dire after the first dozen entrenched, high-producing starters. He's a pure lottery ticket, but I'd rather have the upside of Lance in 2023 and beyond than a 35+-year-old starter likely to deliver league-average value most of the time.
Zach Wilson, New York - Wilson was already lower in my rankings than the industry consensus, but he still needs to fall further. Wilson cannot play quarterback at the NFL level. What evidence do we have to the contrary?
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta - Ridder drops ten spots because of his inability to wrest the Falcons' job from a middling Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have no incentive to play Mariota beyond this year, and with each week Ridder doesn't get a shot to prove he's worth developing, the likelihood increases that Atlanta will draft its long-term starter in April, relegating Ridder to backup duties at best.
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