The Dynasty Investor: RB Value

Photo: Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

To recap the process, the way we measure value in the Dynasty Investor is by looking at a player's KeepTradeCut (KTC) vs. his fantasy point per game (PPG) in a ratio called the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. P/E = KTC / PPG / 10. Then you compare that player's P/E ratio to a like-for-like cluster of players from an age, production, and potential perspective. Players in the same cluster should be valued similarly in the market on a P/E basis. If they aren't, then an arbitrage opportunity exists to create value.

This article will use these principles to find value at the running back position.

Key Points Up Front

• It's a little risky, but Buy D'Andre Swift at cost.
• If you are looking for cheap short-term fantasy production, buy Alvin Kamara, even with the potential legal issues.
• Although Dameon Pierce's value has come off some, he still looks a little expensive; we're still actively trying to sell.
• If you are interested in compounding (trading down the price curve with players in the same cluster and collecting the extra), here are some options: sell Najee Harris for Tony Pollard + more, sell Ken Walker or Travis Etienne for D'Andre Swift + more, sell Nick Chubb for Alvin Kamara + more, sell Dameon Pierce for De'Von Achane + more or Cam Akers + more.

RB Clusters

We will now look at the fantasy running back landscape broken up into clusters of similar players by age and PPG. These are NOT rankings; they are groupings of like-for-like players. Please take a look at the chart below. This chart is an exciting way to look at the running back group. The clusters are graphed with increasing estimated 2023 PPG on the horizontal axis and decreasing age (youngest on top) on the vertical axis. The players are divided into clusters shown by the gray dashed lines by PPGs of 18+, 16-18, 14-16, & 10-14, and by age: <25, 25-26, & 27+. Visually these clusters are grouped by color. Also, the size of the bubble represents each player's KTC, so the bigger the bubble, the higher the KTC. Below we will break apart each cluster to look for value amongst the like-for-like players. Big shout out to @NFL_Billy_Jones for helping me put this chart together.

Also, look at this chart which graphs KTC vs. estimated 2023 PPG. We added a best-fit line. I think this is a fascinating chart, and it might indicate that players above the line are maybe a little expensive on a KTC vs. PPG basis, and those below the line are a little cheap. It's an exciting way to look at it, but we will explore these valuations in the cluster tables below.

RB Cluster | Age <27 | 18+ PPG

Trading Notes

Bijan Robinson: Very few skill players reach the top KTC price of 10,000, where you are valued alongside the best quarterbacks in the Superflex format. Saquon Barkley did it, Christian McCaffery did it, Jonothan Taylor did it briefly, and Bijan Robinson may make it to those heights. In a fantasy environment that has devalued the running back year after year, Robinson seems like the only guy that could buck the trend and shoot up to the priciest skill player. Robinson has answered every call of what makes an elite stud running back as he crushed every metric you could find in college, was a very high 1st round pick in the NFL draft, and if he can get off to a hot start in Atlanta, he'll have a good shot at offensive rookie of the year. I'm giving him a similar P/E multiple as Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, supporting his current valuation. So he's a Hold in my book, and I'm advocating for a market weighting, but I think he has the potential to shoot up to somewhere near 10,000, which is ~28% upside from here. I'm not saying it will happen, but he has the highest probability of getting there of all the running backs.

Breece Hall: I'd say Buy if he wasn't already the second highest-priced running back on KTC; more of a Hold, but be patient. He might not get it turned on until the back half of the season as he works his way back from the ACL injury.

Jonathan Taylor: I still believe he's a true differentiator at running back, even though 2022 didn't meet expectations. I do think we have to watch out for 1st round pick Anthony Richardson taking more of the rushing share and probably will have some more of the team's rushing touchdowns, so I'm not sure that the 22.2 PPG season in 2021 is on the table. However, getting back to 18+ PPG this year will go a long way to support his valuation. He looks slightly undervalued, so I'd want to be somewhat overweight Taylor this season.

Cluster Charting

As a reminder, these charts graph the cluster's individual KTC prices over time. Three years ago, Jonathan Taylor's KTC was ~7500. It went down, it went up, but his KTC took off during the 2021 season, where he attained a maximum of 10,000 KTC towards the end of the 2021 season and briefly into the offseason. So for a few months, Taylor was one of the highest-priced assets in Superflex formats as a running back. In this day and age, that is quite the feat. He spent most of the offseason around 8500 KTC and then had a disappointing 2022 season, and his price cratered to around 6000 KTC. These are incredible swings in KTC; even though for a large part of this time he was RB1 on KTC, his KTC can still move around wildly. Breece's starting point was a bit lower, he was drafted to the Jets, and maybe there was a bit more uncertainty with him or just that the running back positional value was declining, but his price starts around 5500. He has a great start to the season; his KTC skyrockets, but then he is injured, and his KTC price falls in line with Taylor's. And finally, Bijan Robinson, one of the better running back prospects we have seen in a while, debuts at a KTC of ~6600, then is drafted early in the 1st round this year to the Atlanta Falcons, and he pushes up above that 7500 KTC level. But as you have seen with Taylor in this chart and a few others we will look at below, Robinson's upside could still be relatively high even though you can't go much higher from a rankings perspective than already being the RB1 of the group, his value can still increase relative to other position groups.

RB Cluster | Age 27+ | 18+ PPG

Trading Notes

Christian McCaffrey: Did you know McCaffrey turns 27 in early June? McCaffrey has been a long-time member of the cluster above, but now he is officially on watch for Father Time to catch up. That said, McCaffery is an easy win-now Buy. He helps your fantasy team more than earning KTC price appreciation, i.e., you won't be able to get out for what you pay right now, but you might win your fantasy championship. As McCaffery is just now crossing the line, the most reasonable valuation is a ~5% discount to the Robinson/Hall/Taylor cluster. Using that P/E, McCaffrey looks undervalued for the type of PPG differentiation he offers. I want to be overweight on McCaffery this year.

Austin Ekeler: Not as much upside as McCaffrey or Henry, but a nice win-now piece. I like him on the Chargers more than I like him pretty much anywhere else, so I’m excited that it worked out.

Derrick Henry: This man has been defying the age cliff theory for a few years now; why should 2023 be any different? He might win you a fantasy championship but don't expect his KTC price to appreciate much from here. He is not a pounding-the-table Buy but a nice short-term Buy.

Cluster Charting

There may be no magic age cliff number for running backs of the caliber of McCaffrey, but 27 is getting close to it. That said, Derrick Henry, now 29 and turning 30 next January, is still putting up differentiated PPG. So McCaffery was hanging out at the KTC max of 10,000 or slightly below for a while but fell substantially through the 2021 season and then baselined between 5500 and 6500 KTC from there. Ekeler & Henry's three-year paths are fairly similar. They both continue to put up differentiated PPG, but their value decreases as they age. Although they both look cheap on a P/E basis, both of these guys will likely continue to lose KTC as they age, will most likely put up outstanding PPG until they don't, and their value will evaporate. It would be best to only look at using these guys from a short-term perspective.

RB Cluster | Age <25 | 16-18 PPG

Trading Notes

Jahmyr Gibbs: I may be one of the few analysts a little lower on Gibbs. Yes, I get that he is a tremendous pass-catching back, and he got outstanding draft capital. Yes, the Lions will use him early and often. But I'm not sure he proved in college that he was a great runner of the football between the tackles, with a poor Rush Yards Over Expected metric, and because of that, his PPG will be limited to that 16-17 PPG range. Looking at it that way, he seems a little expensive compared to the other guys in this cluster. He's not an outright Sell by any means, but I'd underweight his exposure, but I still want some shares to be safe.

Travis Etienne Jr.: The Jaguars spent some draft capital on Tank Bigsby this year to pair with Etienne, which slightly caps Etienne's upside. At this valuation, he looks more like a Hold.

Ken Walker III: See below for a more extensive discussion on Walker. He was my top Sell, and I recently upgraded him; now he is more of a Hold.

Javonte Williams: I wish he were a Buy, but where is the upside? If he can be a higher PPG guy, then yes, you should be buying, but he's not there yet. That's a Hold for me, and I want to be market-weighted, so I at least have some shares if he makes it back.

D'Andre Swift: Swift looks like the Buy in this cluster. The 2022 season was a disappointment, and the draft was a disappointment, but if you can somehow put that all behind you, he seems to be in a pretty good situation for 2023. I'm calling a bounce-back year and moving Swift to a top-pick Buy. More on this below.

Cluster Charting

Let's start with D'Andre Swift on this one; Swift achieves the highest KTC of this group over the past three years oscillating between 6000 and 8000 for two years. Then he had a disappointing 2022 season with the Lions, where he fell out of favor, which led to the Lions drafting a replacement in Jahmyr Gibbs and shipping Swift off to the Eagles. Now Swift is trading at a lower KTC than the rest of the cluster. Next, we'll pair Travis Etienne & Javonte Williams together as they were both drafted in 2021; where Etienne was injured before the start of their first season and plunged in KTC; all the while, Williams goes on to some tremendous KTC appreciation through his first season. They spend the 2022 offseason about 1000 KTC apart, Williams ~6000 and Etienne ~5000, then Williams is injured, and you can see his KTC plunge to where Etienne was. However, Etienne healed up, got on the field, and shot up to where Williams used to trade ~6000. They are now trading about 1000 KTC apart again, with Etienne on top this time. If Williams can get back healthy, there is some upside there.

RB Cluster | Age 25-26 | 16-18 PPG

Trading Notes

Saquon Barkley: I gave him a 15% premium multiple to this cluster, call it the Saquon premium, even though he's the same age and scores the same amount of points as some of the guys in his cluster. He looks undervalued, so I want to be overweight Barkley this season.

Josh Jacobs: What a fantastic year he had; the Raiders didn't pick up his fifth-year option, and they were going to ride him in 2022, and he delivered; congrats to Jacobs holders. I'm more of a Hold on Jacobs now. The 19.5 PPG season does not repeat; I have him ~18 PPG this season, which is still very good.

Najee Harris: Najee looks much cheaper than he has since he started in the NFL, but he seems close to fairly valued right now.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Hold. I like Stevenson and want to have my fair share of him, but at this valuation, it doesn't warrant being overweight. Seemingly a winner from the NFL draft because the Patriots didn't add anybody substantial, so we will see how the year shapes up, but there is potential for him to pop this season.

Tony Pollard: After years of Pollard > Ezekiel Elliot from the numbers guys, we finally saw it. Pollard is undoubtedly more efficient, and I'd like to see if the Cowboys bring in a veteran running back, possibly Elliot, to complement Pollard this season. Otherwise, it's the incredibly efficient Pollard getting the volume, and we will see what he can do. If he can put up decent PPGs this season, there is room for valuation upside. However, it's just a projection right now because we haven't seen it yet.

Cluster Charting

This chart is really interesting to me in that these guys are all very spread out on the left side of the graph and very tight on the right side. Saquon Barkley starts at the top as one of the most valuable running backs available and finishes at the top of this cluster. Only Najee Harris could surmount Barkley after his rookie season when Barkley was injured. Josh Jacobs was on an epic fall in KTC from 8000 to just over 3000 until last season, where he put up some huge numbers and got a boost to the 5000s. Tony Pollard has played committee back and second fiddle to Ezekiel Elliot on the Cowboys for a few years, but last year that flipped, Pollard became the guy, and his KTC shot up from the 3000s into the 5000s. Rhamondre Stevenson comes from complete irrelevance off the chart to have a couple of good seasons, especially in 2022. Now he is right up there with the rest of these guys, with an opportunity to own the Patriots backfield next year.

RB Cluster | Age 27+ | 16-18 PPG

Trading Notes

Nick Chubb: Chubb had another fantastic PPG season for most of last year; he is one of the best in the league at running the ball, but he may always be a part of a committee where he doesn't get the pass-catching upside. He looks overvalued relative to his peers in this cluster. I'd be underweight.

Aaron Jones: The elder of this cluster and consistently scores PPG, but what's in store for the Packers this season with the entirely revamped offense? Long-time quarterback Aaron Rodgers is no longer with the team, and they have infused the roster with young pass-catching talent and a new starting quarterback in Jordan Love. There is plenty of room for Jones in this offense, and he'll get his PPGs, but is this the year age starts catching up to him or the year A.J. Dillon starts to take more of a share? That's a Hold for me.

Dalvin Cook: He was a Sell; now he's valued about right, the question being where does he end up playing next year. If that gets favorably defined and he starts producing like we know he can, assuming Father Time has yet to catch up to him, then I can see his price pushing upwards.

Joe Mixon: Mixon is a new addition to this cluster as he will turn 27 before the season starts, so just like McCaffrey, he is moving to the older cluster. Off-field concerns are pushing the price down, but at some point, the value becomes too good to pass up. If he can skirt the legal issues, he's probably a Buy, but I'm no legal expert.

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the Buy of this cluster; with a suspension looming, I could see his price coming down even further, but that might make for a better buying opportunity; he is not a long-term Buy but might help you win your fantasy league over the next couple of years at a very very reasonable price. See below for more on Kamara.

Cluster Charting

Can someone say age cliff? This chart is a good representation of how value can decrease substantially as running backs age over 27 years old, even though they are still producing PPGs at a good clip. For various reasons, Nick Chubb is holding his value better than this cluster, as there is a gap between his KTC and the rest of the group on the far right-hand side of the chart. The rest of the group is tightly grouped on KTC today. In addition to Chubb right now, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, & Joe Mixon have all spent time at the top of this cluster from a KTC perspective, but their prices have been pushed down for various reasons. Kamara & Mixon are dealing with legal issues, and there is uncertainty in Cook's team situation next year.

RB Cluster | Age <25 | 14-16 PPG

Trading Notes

Dameon Pierce: A top Sell; see below for a more extensive discussion.

J.K. Dobbins: I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he gets back to full form in 2023 after suffering a terrible injury in 2021 and struggling to return in 2022. His upside may be capped as he has yet to show tremendous pass-catching stats in the NFL and plays with Lamar Jackson, a prolific running quarterback who may take some of Dobbins' opportunities and touchdowns.

Zach Charbonnet: I was very high on Charbonnet going into the NFL draft, and I still think he is 'good,' but you have to consider that he is playing with Ken Walker, and it caps both of their upsides. Head coach Pete Carroll notoriously wants the identity of the Seahawks to be a running team, and they have two pretty great options to do that, but that is a challenging setup for fantasy. Interestingly, if there is an injury in this backfield, the non-injured player will be a quick KTC riser. I want some shares, but I'm looking to be market weight.

Rachaad White: Rachaad White was another winner from the NFL draft and free agency as essentially no one of concern was added to the backfield except for possibly undrafted free agent Sean Tucker out of Syracuse, but are we really concerned about a UDFA? Time will tell. There is certainly some potential for White to take a leap this year, the setup looks nice, but he has to perform, and there is uncertainty about that.

De'Von Achane: Yes, he is small, but I like Achane's profile coming out as he hits on most of the metrics I look at, and he got excellent draft capital in what seems to be a perfect fit for him in the Mike McDaniels' offense. Valuing these rookies is always a talk task because you are still determining exactly how it will play out, but I want to overweight Achane into 2023.

Isiah Pacheco: For much of the same reasons I'm out on Dameon Pierce, I'm out on Pacheco maybe even more, except that Pacheco trades ~500 KTC cheaper than Pierce, so I'm not pounding the table here. He is a former 7th-rounder and is very replaceable, so I want to be underweight. Don't get me wrong, he is fun to watch, but I'm here to talk about dynasty fantasy football, and I'm looking to Sell.

Cam Akers: A tactical Buy. He's got KTC upside, but if he pops, I'd have a low conviction on what happens after that. I'm also reasonably high on rookie Zach Evans, so I think there could be a situation where the Rams start making Evans a larger and more significant part of the offense as the season progresses, which would come at the expense of Akers, but also keep him relatively more healthy.

Cluster Charting

This cluster is quite the cast of characters. We have the newcomers in Zach Charbonnet & De'Von Achane, who show up at the very end of the chart, and you can see the bump Achane got after the draft. Then you have the second-year guys in Dameon Pierce, Rachaad White, and Isiah Pacheco, who start pretty far apart from each other, but are now pretty close in KTC. And finally, the injury guys in J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers, who are both very highly regarded, but their prices have taken huge hits as they work their way back from significant injuries.

RB Cluster | Age 25-26 | 14-16 PPG

Trading Notes

Miles Sanders: Outstanding year at moments, but he still doesn't trade at high KTC prices; that said, he doesn't particularly look cheap either. The setup seems perfect, and there is essentially no competition in the Panthers' backfield, so you may have a high-volume season, and he would get bumped up a cluster. I want to be market-weight on Sanders.

David Montgomery: Lions prioritized Montgomery in free agency and then added Jahymr Gibbs in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Montgomery and Gibbs complement each other very nicely, and it will be very interesting to see how backfield touches shape up for the season. I'd bet Montgomery gets more than you think, and possibly Gibbs gets less than you think.

Cluster Charting

Miles Sanders and David Montgomery are both playing for new teams this year. Sanders started at a much higher level, fell pretty hard over the last couple of years, and then had a bounce-back season last year before moving on from the Eagles to the Panthers. And Montgomery has had a reasonably level pricing environment for his career, and this year he looks to split time with 2023 first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs for the Lions.

Other notables

I don't know how much conviction I'd have on these guys. Still, they may all get a decent opportunity to increase their PPGs this season, and they need it because they are currently pricing in some substantial upside: Khalil Herbert, Alexander Mattison, and A.J. Dillon.

Some older guys who look perennially cheap are James Conner, Ezekiel Elliot, and Leonard Fournette.

And then, for the younger potential guys, I'd be interested in selling James Cook and getting at least some exposure to this year's rookie class in Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears, Roschon Johnson, and Zach Evans (in that order).

Dynasty Investor Top picks

Here are my current top picks, i.e., open recommendations. And following that, I'll go through some of my higher-conviction running back top picks in more detail.