It's no secret. I've been around a while. I've learned some things. One of them is this:
Change is horrible . . .
Right up until you make it.
The NFL banned the hip-drop tackle this past Monday during the Annual Owners Meeting in Orlando. However we feel about it today, I suspect we'll soon view this change as a positive.
We all love the physical aspect of the game. That's not going away. Removing the hip-drop will not change the face of the game any more than banning horse-collar tackles has.
As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggested this week, the hope for fantasy managers is that the change will mean fewer injuries to offensive players. "The Logan Wilson tackle that took out Mark Andrews was on the reel that the league used to illustrate what is being banned," Bloom noted.
Anything that keeps players like Andrews in a locked and upright position is in our best interest.
And it could help the league build on a positive trend.
According to NFL Network's Judy Battista, the NFL saw a steep drop in the number of regular-season games missed due to injury in 2023, largely thanks to a significant drop in lower extremity strains and ACL tears.
The league's injury data showed 700 fewer missed player games in 2023 than in 2022.
There were 52 ACL tears suffered in the 2023 season, down 24 percent from the past two seasons. The number of concussions (219) remained stable from the previous year.
Here's to ongoing good health for all involved . . . Especially the guys we draft.
A couple of other changes could impact your fantasy fortunes: The NFL trade deadline will be Week 9 (a week later than in the past), and a new kickoff rule should mean more returns. Bloom discusses all three rule changes in his This Week in News article.
With the preliminaries out of the way, let's get to the good stuff. We'll start by looking at a new coordinator, one who has caused some trepidation among Fantasy Nation . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Chargers
To the surprise of zero people familiar with his work, incoming offensive coordinator Greg Roman used his introductory press conference in February to express confidence that the Chargers will establish a consistent running offense.
If successful, it will be a departure from what's become the norm for the team. It's been almost 15 years since the Chargers last fielded an imposing rushing attack.
According to ESPN.com's Kris Rhim, they've ranked outside the top 10 in rushing yards per game every season since 2007. Last year, the Chargers finished 24th in rushing yards per game, and running back Austin Ekeler averaged the fewest yards per carry (3.5) of his career.
Roman is determined to change that.
"I think in this league, you can really, really help dictate the defenses if you have a strong running attack," Roman said. "If you really talk to most defensive coordinators in this league and got 'em off to the side when they're playing a really good running team, they're sweating a little bit. They're sleeping a little less that week."
Roman went on to suggest that an improved rushing attack would elevate quarterback Justin Herbert.
"Can you imagine Justin Herbert with a great running game?" Roman said. ". . . We don't know, but I can imagine what it might look like. So that's kind of the vision."
Fantasy managers fear that vision.
How Worried Should We Be?
Roman, who was most recently the offensive coordinator with the Ravens in 2022, put together some of the most prolific rushing offenses while also sparking quarterback Lamar Jackson to win the second unanimous MVP award in NFL history in 2019.
While Jackson led the league in touchdown passes that season with 36, he only racked up 3,127 yards through the air.
Of course, he also set the single-season rushing record by a quarterback with 1,206 yards (and another seven touchdowns).
However, this campaign was most remarkable because Jackson was incredibly efficient as a passer (his 113.3 passer rating that season exceeded the average 107.8 rating of an MVP quarterback). He also posted the second-highest passing touchdown percentage (9.0) in the Super Bowl era (minimum 350 attempts).
Jackson needed every bit of that efficiency.
Those 3,127 passing yards ranked 22nd in the NFL that season (and would have ranked 19th this year).
It All Makes Sense
During Roman's four seasons with the Ravens (2019-2022), they led the league in rushing yards per game (175.2) -- a 30-yard difference from the next closest team -- partly because of Jackson's mobility.
Roman led a similar rushing offense when he last worked for the Chargers' incoming head coach, Jim Harbaugh, in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Over that span, the 49ers were second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (139.3).
But it goes beyond that . . .
A Deeper Dive Is Telling
Footballguy Jason Wood has numbers that better define why fantasy managers are concerned.
The pass-to-run ratio for Harbaugh in the NFL, as 49ers head coach with Roman as his coordinator:
- 2011 -- 451 pass attempts (31st), 498 rushes (3rd)
- 2012 -- 436 pass attempts (31st), 492 rushes (7th)
- 2013 -- 417 pass attempts (32nd), 505 rushes (3rd)
- 2014 -- 487 pass attempts (29th), 470 rushes (9th)
Michigan's run percentage on their Harbaugh-helmed 2023 national championship team was 40.4 percent. They had the 117th-lowest pass rate of 133 qualifying teams.
There's more . . .
The pass-to-run ratio for Roman as the Bills OC:
- 2015 -- 465 pass attempts (31st), 509 rushes (2nd)
- 2016 -- 474 pass attempts (32nd), 492 rushes (2nd)
The pass-to-run ratio Roman as the Ravens OC:
- 2019 -- 440 pass attempts (32nd), 596 rushes (1st)
- 2020 -- 406 pass attempts (32nd), 555 rushes (1st)
- 2021 -- 611 pass attempts (9th), 517 rushes (3rd)
- 2022 -- 488 pass attempts (28th), 526 rushes (7th)
While all this seems like great news for newly-signed running back Gus Edwards, whose success working under Roman in Baltimore was laid out in last week's Fantasy Notebook, the concerns for those invested in Herbert are definitely legitimate . . .
Let's Add To Them
Beyond the schematic issues, the Chargers parted ways with their top veteran receivers. They released Mike Williams, who signed with the Jets and traded Keenan Allen to the Bears. Starting tight end Gerald Everett signed with Chicago as an unrestricted free agent.
With Allen and Williams gone, the Chargers need fourth-year man Joshua Palmer and former first-round draft pick Quentin Johnston to fill the void.
Since he was drafted in 2021, Palmer has 143 catches for 1,703 yards and nine touchdowns. Johnston had 38 catches for 431 yards and two touchdowns during his 2023 rookie season.
The team believes Johnston will make great strides this year as he continues to develop.
"Every time you put on the tape, you see the talent and I expect him to make the jump," new general manager Joe Hortiz said of Johnston, selected with the 21st pick last April. "I know we have the right coaches to help him make the jump. I feel good about the guys that are here."
But I think we'd all love to see some additional firepower here.
To that end, the Chargers have the fifth pick overall in next month's NFL Draft.
Footballguy Kevin Coleman believes adding a talent like Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU's Malik Nabers might alleviate some concerns.
But, in his article on The 5 Riskiest Dynasty Quarterbacks, Coleman added, "Herbert may not be in a pass-first offense for the first time in his career."
And that's the heart of the issue . . .
What's The Right Price?
Herbert has averaged more than 4,300 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes while completing 66.6 percent of his passes during his first four seasons. He has thrown for more than 5,000 in a season once and has posted at least 30 touchdown passes twice during his career.
Given the circumstances, it's hard to imagine him finishing in that same range.
How should fantasy managers view this situation?
My approach has always been this: Every player at the right price.
Herbert, who is currently going as the QB13 on Underdog and QB11 on BestBall 10s, is not going at the right price for me.
I'm closer to Wood's stance on this one.
"For me," Wood wrote, "Herbert is by far the easiest fade in fantasy right now. He's a low-end QB1 if he's lucky. He's QB16 in my current projections."
Of course, the list of quarterbacks going after Herbert in current drafts makes it easier for me to pass on him.
Depending on the site you're using, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, and Aaron Rodgers will be available later.
Given all the options, Herbert will not be on many of my rosters unless there is a significant (and for now, unforeseen) change . . .
Murray To The Moon?
Kyler Murray's best is yet to come. At least, that's what his coach, Jonathan Gannon, claimed at last month's NFL scouting combine.
Gannon's stance is Murray demonstrated he was comfortable operating the Cardinals' offense "at a really high level" during the eight games he played last season and the coach expects his quarterback to build on that heading into this season.
"[I] think you saw late in the year kind of where we evolved to, and we will pick up where we left off and then continue to expand what he's comfortable with for him," the coach explained.
Murray, who said after Arizona's season finale that he wouldn't take much time off after the season, has been at the Cardinals facility "every day," Gannon said.
That's good news.
As Darren Urban of the team's official website pointed out, the Cardinals are getting the offseason that Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing did not get last year when Murray was rehabbing his torn ACL -- and that sparks Gannon's excitement.
Indeed, based on how last season finished for Murray, who led the Cardinals to a 3-5 record after returning to a team that was 1-8 at the time, Gannon believes the "sky's the limit" for the sixth-year quarterback.
If nothing else, we have ample evidence that Murray is "their guy." The real affirmation, however, will come next month.
The Cardinals have the fourth overall pick in the draft, and they are all but certain to use it on a player capble of helping Murray and the offense build on last year's strong finish.
The player of choice has yet to be determined, but the consensus points to the Cardinals landing Harrison.
However, while discussing the situation with Bloom on The Audible, our own Cecil Lammey suggested Harrison might not be the target.
Lammey argued the Cardinals being all in Murray means going with whichever receiver the quarterback prefers.
After talking to Gannon in Orlando, Lammey believes the Cardinals could trade down and still secure Rome Odunze, giving them a bigger, more phsyical target while improving their overall lot . . .
"The Ossenfort"
The theory is that if it's not Harrison, the Cardinals would have more flexibility on draft day.
Bloom was on board with that, reminding listeners that general manager Monti Ossenfort was more than willing to wheel and deal in his first Cardinals draft last April (the team went from pick No. 3 to 12 to 6 while adding copious draft capital along the way).
Bloom dubbed this tactic "The Ossenfort."
Bloom also pointed to some of the bigger-bodied receivers -- DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald -- in Arizona's recent past in discussing their possible preferences.
Helping Hands
The presence of Trey McBride offers additional flexibility.
McBride, who broke out in his second season, really hit stride when Murray returned to action last year.
From Week 10 through Week 18, McBride was TE4 in points per game (14.8). Per FantasyPros, he also had a 25.2 percent target share (66 targets), 53 receptions (6.6 per game), 538 receiving yards (67.3 per game), 5.6 yards after the catch per reception, seven broken tackles, seven red-zone targets, and two receiving touchdowns over that span.
Gannon is as all-in on McBride as he is on Murray. He told Lammey as much.
"I think he's going to go to another level," Gannon said of the tight end.
"I think he's gonna go to another level"
— Footballguys | Fantasy Football (@Footballguys) March 26, 2024
FBG's @CecilLammey asks Jonathan Gannon about Trey McBride's future 👇🿠pic.twitter.com/pyok5DJU1m
So McBride and a rookie receiver will lead the way in Arizona. Second-year man Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch will round out the top end of the receiving corps.
Quantifying The Upside
Based on last year's late-season run, which came with Marquise Brown, who signed with the Chiefs earlier this month, and Wilson mostly sidelined by injuries, there's reason for optimism regarding Murray.
Remember, he was QB10 from his return in Week 10 through the end of the season. He's currently going off as QB10 on both Underdog and BestBall 10s.
In the last two full seasons Murray appeared in, he finished as QB8 (2019) and QB3 (2020).
Could he get closer to that 2020 finish? I think so.
And I'm plenty comfortable landing him as early as his current Round 8 ADP (Average Draft Position) on Underdog and definitely in Round 10 on BestBall 10s . . .
If Volume Is King, Should We Crown Mixon?
According to ESPN.com's DJ Bien-Aime, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans isn't worried about any potential regression from Joe Mixon and is optimistic about what the running back can do for the Texans.
"So I'm not thinking about a drop-off," Ryans said in Orlando. "I'm thinking about the positives and the things that [Mixon has] done in his career. He's been consistent throughout his entire career -- a guy who can move the chains for you, a guy who can open up the passing game with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He just opens up the things that we can do offensively."
Mixon, who will turn 28 on July 24, received a three-year, $27 million contract extension (including $13 million guaranteed) from the Texans, who traded a 2024 seventh-round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals to acquire him earlier this month.
Ryans feels Mixon's extension is justified as the Texans were looking for a "playmaker" at running back.
An Accurate Assessment?
As noted in a previous Fantasy Notebook, the Bengals moved on from the veteran because he wasn't delivering explosive plays. Footballguy Zareh Kantzabedian confirmed that Mixon owns the worst breakaway run percentage since 2020 (as far back as Kantzabedian has tracked the top-12 fantasy running backs).
But that's okay. In Houston, he'll continue to get the volume necessary to remain fantasy-relevant whether he's a breakaway threat or not.
As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out last week, Houston's offense ranked in the top 12 in both yards per game and running back carries in 2023.
We saw how that worked out for Devin Singletary last year.
Working as the starter from Week 9 to Week 18, Singletary rushed for 715 yards, ranking third in the league over that span. Berry notes that Singletary enjoyed a 70 percent snap rate during that span and put up 11 or more fantasy points in seven of his last nine games.
Better still, he averaged 13.4 points per game and was RB13 over that stretch.
What will Mixon do with that kind of volume?
In Cincinnati, Mixon averaged 18-plus touches per game in all but his rookie season. He finished with at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage in five of his seven seasons. Besides that 2017 rookie campaign, the other outlier was 2020, when he was limited to six games due to injury.
His fantasy finishes those other five years?
He was RB9 in 2018, RB11 in 2019, RB3 in 2021, RB14 in 2022, and RB6 last season.
Mixon played in every game last season and posted four yards per carry, which is in line with his career average. He did that despite playing without Joe Burrow for the final seven weeks, and as Bien-Aime suggests, the Texans likely hope that having C.J. Stroud under center helps keep Mixon rolling in Houston.
If that's the case, fantasy managers paying RB18 prices right now might end up getting a value . . .
Four More Years?
Appearing recently on the Look Into It podcast with Eddie Bravo, Rodgers discussed his plans for the balance of his career.
They don't include being Vice President of the United States.
"I'm hopeful I can play two or three or four more years, but you need to have some good fortune in there too," Rodgers said via John Breech of CBSSports.com.
In 2023, Rodgers was limited to four snaps thanks to a torn Achilles.
Playing four more years would take him to age 43; he'd turn 44 during the fourth season.
What Are The Odds?
As PFT's Mike Florio suggested, Rodgers' arm will surely hold up.
"The challenge," Florio wrote, "becomes the legs. He needs to not put too much stress on aging joints, ligaments, and cartilage; he still has the power in his lower body to accelerate and move. The key will be to become more stationary and to get rid of the ball in lieu of trying to run around with it."
For the record, Rodgers has spent his offseason at his home in California, continuing a rehab that saw the Jets open his practice window in late November.
"He is working his tail off in California," head coach Robert Saleh said. "He has been communicating with us, not daily, but often. But knowing Aaron, he is on a mission to do a lot of the things he wanted to do last year, and he is not going to stop until he gets it done."
Saleh expects Rodgers to participate in offseason workouts with the team.
"As you guys know, OTAs has become a 7-on-7 camp," Saleh said. "And that should mean he will be able to do all that stuff. But, as we get closer, and we are the next couple of weeks, we will communicate more with him."
While some outside the organization wonder if he'll ever get back to where he was in 2021 -- his last Pro Bowl, All-Pro, and MVP season, the Jets seem unconcerned.
"It is realistic to expect the best from him," Saleh said. "Usually, those injuries are more in the skills position players and guys who actually more around a lot, not to say that he doesn't more around or that is he is not mobile because he is plenty mobile, but he can put his feet in the ground and can have good footwork and a good base and throw a good football, then he will be fine."
The best part for fantasy managers is we don't have to pay for the possible upside.
With his current ADP of QB20 on both Underdog and BestBall 10s, Rodgers is a tremendous value. He should be high on your list of potential QB2s.
His current QB13 spot on our initial Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings is on the more likely end of Rodgers' range of possible outcomes for me . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. I appreciate you spending some time with me.
If you need to catch up on last week's biggest stories, my weekly Top Fantasy Headlines video will get you up to speed in less than 10 minutes (catch it every Friday on the FootballGuys YouTube Channel).
Otherwise, I'll remind you the Chargers, Falcons, and Commanders launch their offseason workout programs on Tuesday. The Panthers, Patriots, Seahawks, and Titans start theirs next Monday. Everyone else will launch their offseason programs on April 15.
That's right. Football draws nearer daily, and we're here for it. See you next week.
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