I closed out last week's Fantasy Notebook by advising you to buckle up because things were about to get crazy.
Things got crazy.
This isn't a victory lap. It wasn't an edgy prediction. Free agency is always wild.
But the immediate burst of action when the legal tampering period opened Monday at noon was impressive. I found myself thinking, "NFL Network has an entire week of programming planned. Pretty sure they weren't counting on it all getting done Day 1."
Of course, it wasn't all done on Day 1, but many of the biggest names were off the board long before the start of the official signing period on Wednesday afternoon.
Those of you who haven't been able to keep up in real time can relax. Footballguys has been on top of it, recording all the signings on our 2024 Free Agent Tracker. In addition, you'll find instant-reaction articles with in-depth analysis for the more significant moves on our Player Movement landing page. We're also adjusting our Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings and 2024 Player Projections to reflect shifting values and outlooks as necessary.
That will continue as developments warrant.
Looking for a respite from the free-agent frenzy? Okay. Version 2.0 of Footballguys 2024 Rookie Draft Guide has been released, Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 5.0 is available, and our newest staffer, Leo Paciga, offers up 11 Life Hacks To Improve Your Trading Skills. Divert as you see fit!
Meanwhile, this week's Fantasy Notebook will begin assessing some of the fallout and aftermath from last week. We'll add some context and start putting it all in perspective. As is our custom (at least until we work our way through all of them), we'll get the ball rolling with a look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Bengals
It didn't take long to fill Brian Callahan's shoes. One day after the team's former offensive coordinator was announced as head coach of the Tennessee Titans, the Bengals promoted Dan Pitcher to fill the opening.
"I'm excited for Dan and his opportunity to increase his role on our staff," head coach Zac Taylor said of his new coordinator. "He has excelled in his job of helping develop our quarterbacks over the past five years. He has been a top contributor to our scheme and that role will now increase. I look forward to seeing him continue to grow in this new position."
Pitcher, 37, has been with the Bengals since 2016, when he was hired on the staff of former coach Marvin Lewis. He has been the team's primary quarterbacks coach since 2020 when Cincinnati drafted Joe Burrow with the No. 1 pick.
Taylor, who handles the offensive playcalling, had previously praised Pitcher's work with backup quarterback Jake Browning, who started the final seven games of the 2023 season after Burrow suffered a season-ending injury.
As Bleacher Report's Timothy Rapp reminded readers, the 27-year-old journeyman backup, who had never played an NFL game before this season and spent the majority of his career on the practice squad, "was a revelation," throwing for 1,936 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while completing 70.4 percent of his passes. Browning also rushed for 127 yards and another three touchdowns.
So behind-the-scenes success has been Pitcher's thing.
Along those lines, during an off-line conversation this week, Footballguys staffers Dan Hindery and Zareh Kantzabedian pointed out that Pitcher's focus on analytics has played an important role this offseason (more on that below).
More importantly, though, Pitcher has the support that matters most.
Before the Bengals played the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game in January 2023, Burrow lauded Pitcher's work, saying the two have a "great working relationship."
Being on the good side of the franchise quarterback has to be a plus for any coordinator, but even more so for a first-year coordinator.
All that said, Taylor will continue to serve as the play-caller.
"Even though it is Taylor's show, and he says he'll still call the plays, he also thinks a division of labor is healthy and smart," Bengals.com senior writer Geoff Hobson explained. "Among Callahan's many responsibilities down through the years were protections and red zone. As the quarterbacks coach responsible for their techniques and progressions, Pitcher was also in charge of third down."
According to USA Today's Chris Roling, this division of duties is part of what made Callahan an attractive head coach candidate for several years and helped prepare Pitcher for the coordinator role.
So, the transition from Callahan to Pitcher should be smooth, especially compared to bringing on an outside coach. But unless something changes, Taylor will be in Burrow's ear and at the controls of the offense on Sundays . . .
Burrow On Schedule
ESPN.com's Ben Baby recently reported that Burrow is gaining clarity on a recovery timeline after surgery to repair a torn wrist ligament in his throwing hand.
Burrow suffered that season-ending injury on Nov. 16 in the team's Week 11 loss to Baltimore.
Injury issues bracketed Burrow's season. He suffered a strained right calf on the second day of training camp. Although he was on the field Week 1, the calf injury didn't didn't fully heal until early October. Burrow had a five-game stretch at full health before he suffered the wrist injury.
In 10 games before the ligament tear, he completed 66.8 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Burrow has been throwing small medicine balls, and if things continue to go according to plan, the quarterback is targeting the start of Cincinnati's organized team activities to resume full throwing sessions.
"I think middle of May is when I am expecting to kind of be cleared for full contact and everything," Burrow told Baby earlier this month. "Over the next month [to] month and a half, we'll kind of decide all those things."
That timeline isn't far off from what an offseason has looked like for him the past couple of years. Burrow said he usually doesn't start throwing until OTAs. The time off has given him an extra 12 weeks to recover and work on any "inefficiencies and weaknesses" as the Bengals look to bounce back from missing the playoffs in 2023.
Over the past few years, Taylor, executive Duke Tobin, and other front-office decision-makers have valued Burrow's input. Burrow said those conversations will continue as the Bengals reposition themselves to improve next season.
"I always ask a lot of questions, and he always gives me the information I need whenever I ask him," Taylor said of his quarterback.
Higgins Re-Routing?
An example of Burrow's influence came the first week of January when he began lobbying the team to retain Tee Higgins. In his first news conference since he went on injured reserve in November, Burrow offered emphatic support for the wideout's return in 2024.
"It's no secret, our relationship," Burrow said. "I expect Tee to be back. I think that's the sentiment in the locker room. We all want Tee back.
"We know what kind of player he is. We know what kind of person he is. He's what being a Bengal is all about."
Burrow reiterated that two weeks ago, shortly after the Bengals applied their franchise tag to Higgins.
"Having him back this year," Burrow said, "obviously, I hope we're going to have him longer, but it's exciting for me to have him this year, and it's a nice little payday for him. Then, hopefully, he gets another one here soon."
But Higgins, who stands to earn $21.86 million playing on the tag this season, doesn't necessarily want the same thing.
As CBSSports.com's Jared Dubin put it, "If he gets his way, Higgins will be playing his football somewhere other than Cincinnati next season."
The wideout has requested a trade because the team has not discussed a long-term contract extension with him.
Adding to the intrigue, non-Bengals teams could contact Higgins on Wednesday. Dubin believes it's fair to expect that when Higgins gets an idea of what his market could have been, he might be even more upset about the tag.
Remember, another team can sign Higgins and send the Bengals two first-round picks in return, or Cincinnati could work out a deal for a different level of compensation.
If he finds the trade he wants, Higgins will likely land a significant long-term contract near the top of the market. This could affect future extension talks for players like Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk throughout this offseason.
The Bengals are not required to trade Higgins despite the request, but why would they not field calls?
And if the calls come, who might be on the other end of the line?
The list of receiver-needy teams includes the New England Patriots, the New York Giants, the New York Jets, and the Washington Commanders.
But asked by our friend Lawrence Jackson Jr. of NBC Sports during February's pre-Super Bowl festivities what quarterbacks he'd most like to play with, Higgins, after making it clear his first preference would be Burrow, also included Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, Buffalo's Josh Allen, Houston's C.J. Stroud, and . . . his college quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.
Tee Higgins requesting a trade ain't a big shock— that's the biz
— Lawrence Jackson Jr. 🃠(@LordDontLose) March 11, 2024
a month ago he told me some QB’s he'd like to team up with if hes not a Bengal pic.twitter.com/riomtiUyKT
Lawrence plays for the Jaguars, who wanted to re-sign Calvin Ridley but lost out in a bidding war with the Titans. They have an opening . . .
Backfield In Motion
The Bengals shook up their backfield by trading Joe Mixon to Houston after signing former Colts running back Zack Moss to handle their lead role.
As Hindery noted in our conversation about Pitcher's role this offseason, "I've heard the Bengals decided to move on from Mixon in large part due to self-scouting, much of it based on analytics."
Indeed, discussing the team's rushing attack, Pitcher recently told reporters, "We have been a very efficient rushing offense. When you look at some of the context-dependent metrics, the EPA efficiency, chunk percentage, things like that, there's good stuff there, and then you break it down by scheme. Some things we were good at, others we weren't . . . We'd love to be more explosive . . ."
Pitcher added that the goal is to turn "some of those efficient runs into chunk runs."
Hindery went on to suggest, "It doesn't take much reading between the lines in some of the other interviews to see they felt like their lack of explosiveness in the running game was due at least in part to Mixon himself and that running back would be an area where they wanted to upgrade."
Baby lent further credence to that notion by pointing out the Bengals ranked 27th in the NFL in running back carries that went for 12 or more yards.
Kantzabedian, who has been exploring breakaway run rates over the last month, confirmed that Mixon owns the worst breakaway run percentage since 2020, which is as far back as he's checked among top-12 fantasy running backs.
Moss had a great run as the starter while Jonathan Taylor was sidelined last season, but given all the talk about getting more explosive on the ground, there's another player who shouldn't be overlooked: Chase Brown.
Yes, Moss will likely become the center of attention for fantasy managers, but Brown shouldn't be forgotten.
To that point, The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. believes the Bengals want to expand Brown's role even with the addition of Moss.
The 2023 fifth-round pick began carving out a role in Cincy's offense during the second half of his rookie season, securing the No. 2 spot for himself during the final six games. Brown finished the season with just 44 carries for 179 yards, with another 156 yards and his lone touchdown coming on 14 catches. He delivered 54 yards (and the touchdown) on a screen pass where he hit 22.05 miles per hour.
According to Next Gen Stats, that was the second-highest speed in the NFL last year. DK Metcalf, who hit 22.23 mph on a 73-yard touchdown catch, led the way.
Brown's top speed beat players like Tyreek Hill (22.01), De'Von Achane (21.93), Derrick Henry (21.68), Raheem Mostert (21.62), Ken Walker III (21.56), George Pickens (21.53), and Brown's teammate, Chase, who hit 21.54 miles per hour.
Speed is king in the NFL, and Brown has plenty.
That aspect of Brown's game might explain why his current price in early best-ball drafts (he's going as RB32 on Underdog and RB33 on BestBall 10s) is higher than his anticipated role might dictate. Of course, the same could have been said of Achane last summer.
So if Brown's price dips a bit in light of the Moss signing, I'm going to be quick to jump in . . .
Burying The Lede
I kind of breezed past something in the discussion about Brown's speed: Henry's max speed of 21.68 mph on a run in the Titans' regular-season finale last season.
It wasn't an isolated event.
Henry's breakaway run percentage ranked sixth-best among running backs with at least 50 attempts, per Pro Football Focus.
I often cite an old cliche that maintains there are two things you can't coach at the NFL level: Size and speed.
Henry is 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds. He posted the seventh-fastest speed in the NFL last season.
Now Henry heads to Baltimore, where he'll work alongside Lamar Jackson, the most dangerous running quarterback in the league, and behind a Ravens offensive line that ranked seventh as a run-blocking unit on Footballguy Matt Bitonti's 2023 Offensive Line Rankings.
Yes, Henry turned 30 in January. Yes, he has had the most rushing attempts since 2018 (1,744).
Also, yes, he's still big and very fast.
Henry is closing in on RB1 territory in ongoing best balls. Draft accordingly, kids . . .
Making Friends Is Important
With quarterback Kirk Cousins signing in Atlanta, he might be interested in securing No. 8. The player with that number seems interested in surrendering it.
NFL Network's James Palmer reported that Kyle Pitts had already contacted Cousins about that jersey number. Pitts also threw the question out to his X followers Monday afternoon.
Who gets to keep 8 🤔 ?
— Kyle Pitts👑 (@kylepitts__) March 11, 2024
The rules of etiquette in cases like this generally require the newcomer to offer up compensation -- either a direct payment or a charitable donation. Cousins' four-year deal with Atlanta reportedly includes $100 million guaranteed, so he has the financial capital to get the job done.
The good news is Pitts wants something else. Something more valuable for all of us.
"I just want targets every game," Pitts said
To which Cousins responded, "Good answer."
Pitts truthers nodded in unison. As well they should.
As CBSSports.com's Zachary Pereles put it: "Cousins loves his tight ends."
Pereles added that nearly 27 percent of Cousins' passes targeted tight ends last year, fifth in the NFL.
That focus has benefited fantasy managers invested in players like T.J. Hockenson (TE4 in 2023 despite tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16), Kyle Rudolph (TE10 in 2018, Cousins' first season as a Viking), and Washington's Jordan Reed (TE3 in 2015, Cousins' first season as a starter; and TE9 in 2016).
If Tyler Conklin managed a TE20 season with Cousins in 2021, is it unreasonable to believe Pitts will finally turn things around this fall?
Of course not.
A change of coaching staff might be enough to change minds. But Arthur Smith's departure combined with the change at quarterback -- after playing with Matt Ryan in the veteran's final season in Atlanta, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke over his first three years as a pro -- should be sufficient to flip the switch.
Pro Football Focus and Yahoo Fantasy's Kate Magdziuk further fueled that expectation by noting that over the past three seasons, Pitts has ranked last among 40 qualifying tight ends with a 67.5 percent catchable target rate.
Magdziuk added: "Pairing him with Cousins (third-lowest inaccurate/uncatchable pass rate among 44 qualifying QBs in that span) just seems too good to be true."
Over the past three seasons, Kyle Pitts has ranked dead last among 40 qualifying tight ends with a 67.5% catchable target rate.
— Kate Magdziuk (@katemagdziuk) March 12, 2024
Pairing him with Kirk Cousins (third-lowest inaccurate/uncatchable pass rate among 44 qualifying QBs in that span) just seems too good to be true pic.twitter.com/926rz3W4zg
Pitts' TE10 finish as a rookie marked his best fantasy output. He fell off to TE33 in 2022 while missing seven games with a meniscus tear. He was TE13 last season.
He's currently available as TE7 on Underdog and TE9 at BestBall 10s (which aligns with his TE9 spot on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings).
I know. Some of you are going to remain skeptical. Try to keep an open mind.
While our Tier 1 players (Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Trey McBride) at the position seem unassailable, believing Pitts could move up within the group of Tier 2 tight ends ahead of him -- George Kittle, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and David Njoku -- isn't a massive reach.
In fact, spending a seventh or eighth-round pick to land Pitts with the hope that he can finally break out seems downright reasonable.
And if you're still nervous?
You can back him up with Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, or Dalton Schultz, all of whom are going well after Pitts (often in the double-digit rounds) . . .
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. I appreciate you spending some time with me.
Last week, I told you the NFL Scouting Combine is when many teams reveal truths about their plans. But the ultimate litmus test on veracity comes when they start doling out cash and investing draft capital. So things will get even more interesting as we move forward. If nothing else, we'll continue gaining clarity as free agency plays out and then with the NFL Draft next month.
We'll be here for all of it. See you next week.
