The 2025 season has felt a bit different than past years. First, the scores needed to win a FanDuel GPP have generally been higher. Last week, 200 points would have been good for just 83rd place in the NFL Sunday Million, and it took 225 points to claim first. Second, the “chalk” seems to be hitting at a higher rate than ever. Maybe, as fantasy players, we’ve collectively improved at identifying the best matchups and plays. For example, last week Quinshon Judkins was the “cover guy” in this article and ended up being over 42% rostered in the Sunday Million. He was also a player you had to have, despite being overwhelmingly popular. Jonathan Taylor, at more than 20% rostered, was another must-have with 32.7 fantasy points.
What lessons can we take from this moving forward?
First, we need to zero in on players who are realistically capable of hitting at least 3X their salary. Knowing that it will likely take a score of 200+ to win a tournament gives us clarity when evaluating each player. In this week’s article, I’ll specifically focus on that 3X number and evaluate each recommended play through the lens of how realistic it is for the player to hit that multiplier.
Second, we’ll continue to highlight the “good chalk.” You don’t need me to write 1,000 words on why Jonathan Taylor is a good play, and recommending him doesn’t make anyone look sharp. But we do need to identify these elite players in great spots and build our lineups around them.
Third, this recent stretch of chalk consistently hitting is going to influence how people build lineups in Week 8. Opponents won’t hesitate to enter chalky builds that resemble cash-game lineups. However, when chalk hits and lineups start to look alike, finding difference-makers becomes even more critical. Thousands of entries last week had both Jonathan Taylor and Quinshon Judkins, but very few also had Oronde Gadsden. Even in a week where the chalk smashed, Gadsden was the key differentiator you needed to reach the top of the leaderboard. In addition to highlighting “good chalk,” I’ll continue to feature some low-owned players with major tournament upside.
Before diving into the position-by-position breakdown, let’s start with a look at team totals in their proper context alongside the defense-versus-position numbers.
Sunday Morning Update
Note, there will be a Sunday morning update to this article. News has been moving fast Saturday morning, and the uncertain status of Lamar Jackson looms large over this slate. The article will be updated on Sunday morning once we get some clarity on a few key injury situations worth watching and get a better idea of how the late-breaking injury news (Michael Penix Jr., Lamar Jackson, A.J. Brown, etc.) is expected to impact the percent-rostered projections.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the best matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With seven weeks of data, we can draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production (FanDuel scoring). For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are included in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 8 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, and how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Atlanta
The first thing that stands out about this slate is the combination of Atlanta’s 41% scoring boost and the favorable matchup for Bijan Robinson, who faces a Dolphins defense allowing 5.1 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. It is also a top-five matchup for Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Cousins presents an interesting discussion point. Few players were likely to roster Michael Penix Jr. at $6,800, but many will be drawn to Cousins at $6,000. The $800 in savings matters, especially on a slate where we are looking for cap space to fit in elite running backs. Still, it is not a huge difference overall, and it is worth asking: if you were not interested in Penix, why play Cousins?
Cincinnati
Early in the week, I would have guessed that the top Bengals weapons would be among the most popular plays on the slate. The offense looked outstanding in primetime against a solid Steelers defense, and the 25.5 team total is noteworthy. It also helps that one of the Jets' top defenders, Sauce Gardner, will be out. However, players like Chase Brown and Tee Higgins are shaping up as low-owned contrarian options. Ja'Marr Chase will be more popular than Brown or Higgins but not excessively so, since most managers will understandably prioritize the top running backs.
Baltimore
Can it really be as simple as Lamar Jackson returning and the Ravens offense immediately looking elite again? Vegas seems to think so. Baltimore’s 28.0 team total against a solid Bears defense stands out. While there has been some speculation about Jackson’s health and availability, the fact that the Ravens are favored by nearly a touchdown and have one of the highest team totals of the week suggests sportsbooks are confident he will play and perform near his usual level.
Saturday afternoon edit: The line has been taken off the board as it now looks like Jackson will miss another week after an Ian Rapoport post stating that Jackson ran the scout team offense on Friday.
Denver
The Broncos’ 16% scoring boost does not stand out at first glance, but the positional matchup against the Cowboys certainly does when combined with that 16% Week 8 bump. The top Commanders skill players were popular in this same matchup last week and mostly disappointed, so it will be interesting to see how that affects roster percentages for Bo Nix and his top targets in Week 8.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 8 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, and how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Dallas
This Cowboys offense has been on fire, but this is a tough spot for the passing game. The team total of 23.5 stands out as well below their recent offensive explosions, and this matchup is difficult across the board. The Broncos have been especially strong against opposing wide receivers. This sets up as a classic unstoppable force versus immovable object scenario, and the idea that good offense beats good defense might apply here. That makes the top Cowboys skill players intriguing tournament options, since the matchup will likely scare most players away.
Indianapolis
There is not a lot of green on this table, but most of what does appear belongs to the Colts. When a team is averaging 33.1 PPG, a -7% boost is not particularly concerning. That still translates to a strong 30.8 team total against a reeling Titans squad. Tennessee has given up several big games to opposing running backs, including Jonathan Taylor’s 108-yard, three-touchdown performance back in Week 3. The Titans are allowing 5.8 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs, which is a key stat to keep in mind for Week 8. The Colts passing game is also interesting, but the 14.5-point spread raises concerns about game script and whether Cameron Ward and the Titans can score enough to keep Daniel Jones throwing deep into the fourth quarter.
Chicago
The sportsbooks appear to be discounting 2025 season-to-date numbers for the Baltimore defense. The unit is getting key players back from injury and should benefit from a much-needed bye week. This is an interesting spot for D'Andre Swift, who has posted back-to-back strong performances as the Bears running game finds its rhythm. He also draws an excellent matchup based on defense-versus-position numbers, but this play feels risky given Chicago’s -15% Week 8 boost and the confidence oddsmakers seem to have in a Baltimore defensive rebound. That said, the Ravens have dealt with season-long injuries at defensive tackle, and this defense may continue to struggle against the run all year.
Quarterback
You can look at Nix’s recent play from either a glass-half-empty or glass-half-full perspective. The negative view is that he totaled just 198 yards while leading the Broncos to 13 points in a narrow win over the Jets, then followed that up by being shut out for three quarters at home against the Giants. The positive view is that Nix has guided Denver to four straight wins, including improbable comebacks against both Philadelphia and New York. And while he was only productive for one of the four quarters against the Giants, it was a spectacular one. In the final 14 minutes, he ran for two touchdowns, threw for two more, and added a pair of two-point conversions. Nix and the Broncos should be brimming with confidence heading into a strong home matchup against the Cowboys. Denver has a 27.0-point team total, a 16% boost over its season average. Playing quarterbacks against Dallas has been profitable all year, as the Cowboys are allowing 7.5 PPG above expectation to the position. Every opposing quarterback has scored multiple touchdowns, which bodes well for Nix’s chances of finding the end zone at least twice.
Even at 36 years old, Taylor remains a true dual-threat quarterback. He has 14 carries for 80 yards on just 120 snaps this season, averaging 0.67 yards per snap, and comfortably projects for 40 or more rushing yards this week against the Bengals. This matchup carries sneaky shootout potential. Cincinnati has allowed 27 or more points to each of its last six opponents and is giving up 3.0 PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. That number might actually undersell how vulnerable this defense has been, as multiple blowouts have limited opposing passing volume. In Week 3, Carson Wentz threw for just 173 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 48-10 win over Cincinnati despite attempting only 20 passes. Every dollar of salary cap space is valuable this week with players like Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, and Jonathan Taylor offering realistic 30-point upside, which makes Taylor’s price tag appealing. If Garrett Wilson sits again, the Jets’ passing weapons are underwhelming, but this game could still produce fantasy value. Pittsburgh is not exactly loaded with skill players either, and Aaron Rodgers just threw four touchdowns against the Bengals. Building lineups becomes much easier in Week 8 with Taylor, especially if you stack him with a cheap target like Mason Taylor or Josh Reynolds.
Running Back
Over the past six weeks, Taylor has averaged 130.6 total yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game, including three separate three-touchdown outings. If he delivers another one of those monster games in Week 8, you will need him in your lineup. He is in a great position to do it. The Titans have struggled mightily against the run, allowing 6.0 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs, the fourth-most in the league. They could also be without their top interior defender, Jeffery Simmons, who left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Taylor has scored in seven of his last nine games, piling up 17 total touchdowns during that stretch. Two of those big performances came against Tennessee, where he scored three times in each meeting. With the Colts favored by 14.5 points and carrying an implied team total of 31.0, everything lines up for another huge game. Tennessee has given up 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs in seven games, the most in the NFL.
It is remarkable how strong a season Robinson is putting together. He is on pace for 1,485 rushing yards and 1,105 receiving yards, and he has done it against some tough defenses. This week’s matchup against Miami will be his first against a Bottom 5 defense versus running backs. The Dolphins look like a team that has already checked out on the season, which is exactly the kind of defense we want to attack with running backs. Over the past three weeks, Miami has given up three touchdowns to Quinshon Judkins, 138 total yards and a touchdown to Kimani Vidal, and 234 total yards and a touchdown to Rico Dowdle. Robinson has scored in seven of his last nine games and has found the end zone 10 times during that span. With the Falcons sitting as 7.5-point home favorites, the setup is ideal for another big performance. The key for tournaments (and Robinson’s chances of hitting 3X) is whether he can find the end zone multiple times. He did it three straight games to finish the 2024 season but is yet to have a multi-touchdown game in 2025.
As much as the fantasy community wants to see TreVeyon Henderson get more opportunities, the rookie appears to be firmly in Mike Vrabel’s doghouse. Henderson’s struggles to earn the coaching staff’s trust, combined with the season-ending injury to Antonio Gibson, have opened the door for Stevenson to take on a true workhorse role in the Patriots backfield. He has played over 70% of the snaps in back-to-back games, including a season-high 75% last week. He was actually on pace for more than 80% before third-stringer Terrell Jennings handled garbage-time snaps late in the fourth quarter. Before that, Stevenson had accounted for over 90% of the backfield touches. The matchup against Cleveland is challenging, but with New England listed as a home favorite and Stevenson priced at just $6,000, it’s hard to pass on a workhorse running back in this spot.
Wide Receiver
Egbuka didn’t appear limited by his hamstring injury on Monday night. While the fantasy results were underwhelming, he saw a career-high 12 targets and was heavily involved after Mike Evans left the game. The quiet box score had more to do with an off night from Baker Mayfield than anything Egbuka did wrong. With Mayfield expected to bounce back and the Buccaneers receiving corps still dealing with injuries, Egbuka should once again be featured as the focal point of the passing attack. The Saints defense has generally been solid against opposing wide receivers but has still given up some big performances, including Kayshon Boutte’s 93-yard, two-touchdown game two weeks ago.
Over the last three weeks, Smith has averaged 7.0 catches for 115.3 yards on 8.7 targets per game. That stretch includes two huge performances in Weeks 5 and 7, with a quiet outing against the Giants in between. He’ll face those same Giants again in Week 8. The question is whether New York can slow him down for a second straight meeting or if Smith will stay hot in what looks like a favorable matchup on paper. With A.J. Brown ruled out, Smith steps into the WR1 role and has been targeted on 36% of his routes when Brown is off the field. His recent form and expanded role will make him a popular play this week, but for good reason.
Olave is averaging 10.2 targets per game this season and has seen double-digit looks in five of seven contests. Interestingly, the two games where he didn’t reach 10 targets were the ones he scored touchdowns in, including last week when he turned seven targets into five catches for 98 yards and two scores. The Saints running game was struggling even before Kendre Miller’s injury, so the offensive approach should lean even more heavily toward the pass against Tampa Bay’s pass-funnel defense. The Buccaneers often sit in a soft zone, content to allow short and intermediate completions, which sets up perfectly for a volume receiver like Olave to rack up catches and yards.
Higgins stands out as a strong tournament option at a mid-tier price of $7,000 with projected ownership under 10%. The Bengals offense looks like it has found its groove again with Joe Flacco getting comfortable, throwing for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns on 47 attempts last week against a solid Pittsburgh defense. While Ja'Marr Chase dominated targets, Higgins still posted 6 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. He would have finished with 100 yards and a second score if he hadn’t slid inside the 5-yard line late to set up the game-winning field goal. Higgins has scored a touchdown in eight of the last nine games in which Cincinnati scored 20 or more points, and the Bengals’ 25.5-point implied team total puts him in another strong spot. With Sauce Gardner expected to be out, the Jets will rely on Brandon Stephens and rookie Azareye'h Thomas, which sets up favorably for both Bengals wideouts and makes Higgins an appealing leverage play off Chase.
With Nico Collins and Christian Kirk ruled out for Week 8, Noel should slide into the starting lineup, though it’s not a lock given Braxton Berrios’ continued involvement. Even with limited playing time last week, Noel caught four passes for 77 yards on seven targets despite playing just 43% of the snaps. He should see a bigger role against the 49ers, and at only $4,500, the uncertainty around his snap share is a risk worth taking. That price tag makes roster construction much easier, and Noel is exactly the kind of high-upside young player worth being early on in tournaments. Last week, Oronde Gadsden filled that role, and Noel could be this week’s version. Matt Waldman provided a detailed breakdown of Noel for those who want a closer look at his game.
Jaylin Noel Temp-to-Perm: The Gut Check No. 663
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 23, 2025
Jaylin Noel might be the best temporary starting WR for the Texans in Week 8. He might also be the best long-term complement to Nico Collins.https://t.co/YAkdGamKRr
Tight End
Goedert was the go-to option for Jalen Hurts when the Eagles faced the Giants two weeks ago, catching nine passes for 110 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. With A.J. Brown out this week, the already condensed Philadelphia passing tree will tighten even further, with Goedert and DeVonta Smith each likely to command around 30% of the targets. Given his recent success in this matchup, affordable salary, and expanded role, Goedert will be deservedly chalky in Week 8.
Schultz has posted at least five catches in each of his last four games, providing a steady floor for his price range. He also flashed a much higher ceiling last week, catching nine of ten targets for 98 yards. With Nico Collins sidelined by a concussion and Christian Kirk out with a hamstring injury, Schultz could function as Houston’s de facto WR1 in Week 8.
Taylor has played over 93% of the snaps in back-to-back games and has averaged 41.3 receiving yards per game over his last four. He is still looking for the first touchdown of his NFL career, and this week presents a great opportunity to find it. Cincinnati has allowed nine touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, three more than any other team in the league. Taylor has been dealing with a quad contusion but is expected to play, and it is the type of injury that should not limit his effectiveness. At under $5,000, he offers strong lineup flexibility and makes for a nice stacking option alongside Tyrod Taylor and one of the Bengals wideouts.