The Week 10 FanDuel Main Slate could be lower-scoring than what we’ve seen in recent weeks. There are fewer obvious mispriced players due to injuries, and few clear “smash spots” where a team is projected to score well above its season average against a defense that gives up significantly more fantasy points per game than average to a position. As shown on the best matchups table below, only two teams are projected by sportsbooks to score more than 7% above their season average, and even in those cases, the opposing defenses rank middle of the pack against each offensive position.
Last week, Kyle Monangai was drastically underpriced on a Bears team projected to score well above its season average, facing a Bengals defense with terrible numbers against running backs. There isn’t a comparable situation anywhere on the Week 10 main slate. The bad news is we’ll need to dig deeper to find ways to differentiate between a wide range of similarly strong plays. The good news is that projected roster percentages are much flatter, which should make it easier to build unique lineups and give an edge to those who put in the extra research.
Let’s dive in. First, we’ll look at the matchups from a team and positional level. Then, we’ll go position by position to highlight the best plays on the slate. Each position will be split into two categories: “Good Chalk,” which highlights players worth using despite their expected popularity, and “Low-Owned Targets,” which spotlights strong plays that are flying further under the radar.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense versus position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 10 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
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The Browns’ 24% scoring boost jumps off the page. The defense-versus-position numbers aren’t as eye-catching, but those deserve an asterisk after the Jets traded away their two best defensive players. The loss of star run-stopping tackle Quinnen Williams could be especially impactful and is one of the reasons Quinshon Judkins made the “good chalk” list and earned this week’s cover photo.
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The Panthers’ 17% scoring boost is the only other significant one on the slate and a big reason Rico Dowdle also appears in the “good chalk” category. He’s one of my favorite plays against a Saints defense that allows the 12th-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing running backs.
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The Buccaneers’ passing game stands out on a table largely lacking the green shading we like to see in defense-versus-position numbers. There’s good reason Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, and the Tampa Bay passing attack project to be among the chalkiest plays on the slate. I like Mayfield and Egbuka but worry they could be slightly more popular than ideal against a Patriots defense that’s trending upward and may be better than its season-long numbers suggest.
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It should be business as usual for the Bills offense, which remains projected among the highest-scoring on the slate. Josh Allen and James Cook are fine as chalky options but not among my top preferences given their premium pricing.
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Christian McCaffrey is expected to be the most popular running back on the slate. It’s impossible to discount him given his elite volume this season, but his fantasy ceiling could be capped this week against one of the toughest defenses in the league versus opposing running backs.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 10 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
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The Giants are probably my favorite team to stack this week, even though they’re projected to score just slightly below their season average. The Bears’ pass defense should be a bigger target than current percent-rostered projections suggest after their disastrous showing last week against Cincinnati.
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The Lions are my second-favorite stack, which says a lot about how strange the Week 10 slate is. Typically, my favorite stacks come from teams expected to score well above their season averages—not from two teams appearing on the worst matchups list.
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The greenest number on this week’s table is the 7.0 PPG above expectation allowed by the Giants’ run defense. Only the Bengals, who Kyle Monangai gashed last week, allow more. Assuming D’Andre Swift plays as expected, most won’t return to Monangai this week. But given the matchup, lingering questions about Swift’s health, and Ben Johnson’s stated willingness to ride the hot hand, I’m willing to take another shot on Monangai at what should be a small fraction of his Week 9 ownership.
Quarterback
I don’t love the chalk in Week 10. We currently project Marcus Mariota ($6,300), Drake Maye ($8,200), Baker Mayfield ($7,900), and Josh Allen ($9,200) to each be over 10% rostered. Mariota’s price is appealing, and his dual-threat ability gives him a solid projection, but I don’t see tournament-winning upside against an underrated Detroit defense. Maye and Mayfield face each other in a matchup that could shoot out, but there are quarterbacks slightly cheaper, two of whom are highlighted below, with similar upside and a fraction of the ownership. Josh Allen is always viable, but I prefer him in games with true shootout potential, and I don’t trust the Miami offense to push him. Overall, there isn’t any quarterback this week who qualifies as “good chalk.”
Lamar Jackson
Jackson has started and finished four games this season. His lowest fantasy output in those games came last week against the Dolphins, when he threw for 204 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win, finishing with 25.6 FanDuel points. Jackson should be closer to full health and feels due for his first rushing touchdown since Week 1. He should also have success through the air. Minnesota ranks middle of the pack on the season against opposing quarterbacks but has struggled lately, giving up 284 yards and two touchdowns to Jared Goff, 227 yards and three touchdowns (plus 62 rushing yards) to Justin Herbert, and 326 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts.
Jaxson Dart
Dart has scored a rushing touchdown in five of his six games. Prior to this week, he had faced only one defense all season that ranked below average against opposing quarterbacks (the 49ers, who allow just 0.8 PPG above expectation). This week, he gets a Chicago defense allowing a massive 4.1 PPG above expectation to the position. Only the Bengals and Cowboys, both on byes, have given up more. The Bears surrendered 470 yards and four passing touchdowns to Joe Flacco last week, setting a career high for Flacco in his 17th NFL season. Given the matchup, Dart’s dual-threat skill set, and his sub-$8K price tag, he stands out as the top quarterback play on the Week 10 slate.
Last week, the Bears beat the Bengals 47-42 in a game dominated by both offenses. Most observers focused on how impressive the Bengals offense looked and how poor their defense was. The second half of that takeaway is fair—the Bengals defense is bad—but Chicago’s defensive performance was just as concerning. Even if Cincinnati has elite wide receivers, there is no excuse for letting a 40-year-old Joe Flacco throw for 470 yards and four touchdowns.
Jared Goff
Last January, Goff threw three interceptions against the Commanders in a 45-31 Lions loss. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is the type to hold a grudge and make a statement when he can. This could be that kind of spot with an angry Lions team coming off an upset loss to Minnesota, looking to get their season back on track and avenge last season’s playoff defeat. They face a vulnerable Washington secondary that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns over the last three games and was just shredded by Sam Darnold for 330 yards and four touchdowns—most of it in the first half before Seattle pulled back. Goff is often seen as a low-upside tournament option, but he has flashed major ceiling games, such as his 334-yard, five-touchdown performance against the Bears in Week 2.
Running Back
Rico Dowdle
Dowdle stands out as the top running back play on the slate. In his three starts this season, he has averaged 26.0 carries for 173 rushing yards and 4.0 targets for 31.7 receiving yards per game, scoring four total touchdowns. The Panthers are 5.5-point favorites with a team total 19% higher than their season average, facing a Saints defense that allows the 12th-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing running backs. Dowdle’s monster outings in Weeks 5 and 6 came while Chuba Hubbard was sidelined. When Hubbard returned, Dowdle briefly slipped back into a backup role and played fewer than half the snaps in Weeks 7 and 8, but he reclaimed the starting job in Week 9 with a 72% snap share. His 141 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay were arguably more impressive than his earlier 200-yard games given the quality of the opponent.
Quinshon Judkins
The Jets opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line swung four points toward the Browns after the Jets traded away their two best defensive players at the deadline. Even before the trades, the Jets were giving up the 10th-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing running backs. The loss of Quinnen Williams, one of the league’s top interior run defenders, makes this an especially appealing matchup. Judkins has scored at least 16 FanDuel points in every game of his career in which Cleveland hasn’t lost by 14 or more. As 2.5-point favorites this week, the Browns are in position for another strong performance, and Judkins should be at the center of it. Judkins has averaged 22.0 carries in the three games he has played that Cleveland kept competitive. It is hard to see the Jets blowing anyone out, so we should see 20-to-25 touches from Judkins, who has already proven himself to be one of the most talented young backs in the league.
TreVeyon Henderson
It was frustrating to see Terrell Jennings outscore Henderson 10.9 to 10.7 last week, but that outcome should lower Henderson’s ownership despite him having the exact role we hoped for in Week 9 when he was much chalkier than he is expected to be in Week 10. He played 75% of the snaps and handled 20 opportunities (14 carries and 6 targets), producing 87 total yards last week. The workload and usage were there, and in tournaments, that’s the signal to focus on rather than the small scoring difference from a one-week sample.
Kyle Monangai
Last week, Monangai handled 26 carries for 176 rushing yards and added three catches for 22 receiving yards. D’Andre Swift did not practice Friday and is listed as questionable after being a full participant Thursday. It is unclear exactly what is going on with Swift, but this could be Monangai’s backfield regardless. Every time Ben Johnson mentions him, he says Monangai “does the right thing,” which feels noteworthy given that one of the long-standing knocks on Swift, who Johnson inherited, has been that he does not always hit the designed holes. Swift’s tendency to freelance has frustrated multiple coaching staffs over the years.
The most likely reason Swift was downgraded to questionable for a “personal issue” is that he has something legitimate to handle off the field. However, there is at least a small chance the issue stems from frustration over a game plan that may again feature Monangai. Either way, Monangai is in a strong position to deliver another big game against a Giants defense that is nearly as poor against the run as the Bengals, allowing 7.0 PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. As Johnson explained, “I think normally it’s been by series, this guy’s going to start us off by series, but a longer drive we might need to sub someone in. I think we’ll find that right balance.” He also added that he will not hesitate to ride the hot hand: “I do believe in a guy having a hot hand, so one guy, if he’s feeling it and giving us a spark, we might lean on that a little longer.”
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua
As the week goes on, it becomes easier to find the salary to get up to a top receiving option like Nacua. Cedric Tillman is a fine value at $4,000, and a stars-and-scrubs build featuring Nacua and Tillman for a combined $13,700 projects better than trying to fit in two mid-tier receivers in the $6,500 to $7,000 range. There is not much to add about Nacua, who has been dominant when on the field this season. He left last week’s blowout win over the Saints after playing fewer than half the team’s snaps, yet still caught seven passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. He nearly added a second score on a goal-line carry. When he faced the 49ers in Week 5, Nacua recorded 10 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
No player in the league has been hotter than Smith-Njigba, who has topped eight catches and 120 receiving yards in four straight games. The Seahawks will be without Tory Horton, but the addition of Rashid Shaheed gives them a legitimate deep threat to stretch the field and keep defenses honest. Like Nacua, Smith-Njigba benefits from the availability of value options such as Tillman and TreVeyon Henderson, which makes it easier to fit his salary. This game has sneaky shootout potential, as Jacoby Brissett has sparked the Cardinals passing attack in recent weeks.
Cedric Tillman
This play is largely about salary. Early in the week, it made sense to punt the WR3 spot for a cheap player who could project for a few points, given how tight the cap felt. Tillman, at minimum salary, immediately jumps out as the best option for that role. Reports indicate he is fully recovered from his Week 4 hamstring injury and should return to an every-down role. With the Jets trading away their top defensive backs, Tillman finds himself in a favorable matchup and has a realistic chance to outperform his near-minimum price.
Marvin Harrison Jr..
The coaching staff and Jacoby Brissett made a clear effort to get Harrison involved early last week, and he responded with his best performance of the season. He caught seven passes for 96 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. In what could turn into a shootout against Seattle, expect Brissett to continue building on that chemistry after last week’s success. Developing a stronger connection with Harrison, along with Trey McBride, would help Brissett solidify his grip on the starting job and continue to grow the Cardinals’ young offensive core. Harrison also performed well in his previous meeting with Seattle, catching six of 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. In a week when salary cap flexibility is tight, his $6,600 price tag offers welcome relief and makes him a strong WR1 or WR2 option.
Wan'Dale Robinson
As noted in the Best Matchups section above, the Bears allow the third-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing wide receivers. Since Malik Nabers went down with injury, Robinson has played over 90% of the snaps in every game. Over his last five contests, he is averaging 5.8 receptions for 60.6 yards on 8.2 targets per game. He has seen at least 11 targets in two of his last three outings and should remain heavily involved in Week 10. At $6,000, Robinson projects as a high-floor WR3 with consistent volume and a realistic path to a big game like he had against the last terrible defense he faced (Dallas in Week 2, when he went off for 142 yards and a touchdown).
Tight End
Trey McBride
The only real knock on McBride early in the season was his lack of touchdowns. Since Jacoby Brissett took over as the starter three weeks ago, that concern has completely vanished. McBride has scored four times during that stretch while averaging 7.7 receptions for 67 yards and 1.3 touchdowns on 11 targets per game. Those are elite numbers for the position and more than justify paying up for him this week. He has become the clear focal point of the Cardinals passing attack, and his combination of volume and touchdown upside makes him a strong priority in both tournament and cash-game builds. The matchup is also favorable, as Seattle allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing tight ends.
George Kittle
Kittle averaged 73.7 receiving yards per game last season, but injuries have slowed his start to 2025. Now healthier, he appears ready to play a major role down the stretch. The 49ers remain short-handed at wide receiver, with Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk out and Jauan Jennings playing through broken ribs. Divisional matchups often bring out Kittle’s best, and he has historically excelled against the Rams, averaging 66.1 receiving yards per game in the series. The Rams defense does a good job limiting deep passes and stopping the run, but it has been vulnerable to players who create yards after the catch on short throws. The 49ers have consistently taken advantage of that weakness in the short and intermediate passing game when facing Los Angeles. When these teams met last month while Kittle was sidelined, Mac Jones threw for 342 yards, with Kendrick Bourne (10-142-0), Christian McCaffrey (8-82-1), and backup tight end Jake Tonges (7-41-1) all posting strong performances.
Isaiah Likely
Last week, Ravens tight ends combined for three touchdowns, with Mark Andrews scoring twice and Charlie Kolar adding one. Likely was the odd man out but still finished second on the team with 60 receiving yards. He appears to be rounding into form after missing most of training camp and the first month of the season with a leg injury. While I lean toward the chalkier tight end options this week, Likely is one of my favorite low-priced plays and an excellent cost-saving stack with Lamar Jackson. He has yet to deliver a breakout performance this season, but it’s hard to ignore John Harbaugh’s offseason comments about Likely being an All-Pro talent, especially given how well he played late in the 2024 season. For those reasons, I will continue to include him in tournament lineups.
David Njoku
While Harold Fannin Jr.. is expected to play, he has missed practice time this week with a hamstring injury, which could elevate Njoku to the top of Dillon Gabriel’s target list in a favorable matchup against the Jets. Njoku has been steady since Gabriel took over, recording 13 catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games. He offers a solid floor at a bargain salary and remains one of the stronger mid-range tight end values on the slate.