🏆 America's Favorite Fantasy Football Myth: Busted
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OVER 1 YEAR AGO • 14 MIN READ
🏆 America's Favorite Fantasy Football Myth: Busted
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The NBA Finals are heating up, the Madden cover is trending again, and the Scott Fish Bowl scoring just dropped... It’s a good day to be a Footballguy.
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
First up, I dig into the Madden Curse — myth or overblown Twitter legend? Let’s break it down. Then Dave Kluge tackles the Scott Fish Bowlscoring format. It’s wild, creative, and a perfect excuse to flex our Custom Projections built to give you rankings based on your league.
Jason Wood lays out 11 Running Back Situations you need to get right. These are the kind that win or lose drafts. And Alfredo Brown wraps it up with Dynasty QB Trade Value Tiers to help you make your next smart move.
Plus, Bob Harris is here (as always) with the News and Notes you need to stay sharp.
Let’s dig in,
J
PS. Footballguys has always backed the leagues that matter most - yours.
Our Footballguys Family doesn’t disappoint - here are a couple of standout league tales so far:
I'm the only female in the league. We have three divisions: elite, bloody, and real men. The best year was when I ended up in Real Men and won the league.
When we first started 37 years ago. I remember getting the USA Today Tuesday morning and trying to figure out if I won my games. I find it funny now if the computer doesn’t give me numbers instantly, I get upset. How times have changed.
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Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️ POLL: Is the Madden Curse enough to make you fade a player in Round 1?
Free-agent RB J.K. Dobbins (Chargers) is scheduled have dinner with the Denver Broncos coaches Wednesday, June 4, and will visit the team's facility Thursday, June 5, according to a source.
Our view: The Broncos have five RBs on the roster: Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Tyler Badie, Blake Watson, and rookie RJ Harvey, who is expected to be the starter. Dobbins had a career-high 905 rushing yards in 13 games in his only season as a Charger. Los Angeles applied the rarely-used unrestricted free agent tender to Dobbins in April, extending the window for his departure to count toward the compensatory pick formula for both the Chargers and his new team. As Profootballtalk.com notes, Dobbins has played well when healthy, but injuries have kept him from fully realizing his potential.
The Madden Curse: America's Favorite Fantasy Football Myth
By Joe Bryant - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Let’s set the scene.
You're in your fantasy draft war room (read: your buddy's basement). You're on the clock. And right there at the top of your board is this year's Madden cover athlete: Saquon Barkley.
But a hush falls over the room.
You feel a chill. A whisper from a shadowy corner: "He's on the cover, dude... he's cursed.”
Welcome to another season of America's favorite fantasy football myth: The Madden Curse.
But fear not, brave manager. Our Jason Wood and Corey Spala have crunched the numbers, consulted the ancient scrolls (read: Excel sheets), and I'm here to tell you:
The curse is not real.
Unless, of course, you also believe Tom Brady is a lizard person. In which case, please continue living your best life. For everyone else, let's look at the facts. And maybe save you from avoiding a fantasy stud just because he's on the front of a video game.
What Even Is the Madden Curse?
Short version: Players who appear on the Madden cover are destined to get hurt, stink up the season, or just fall flat.
The theory gained traction early on after a few high-profile flameouts: Michael Vick, Shaun Alexander and Peyton Hillis (shocker). But 20+ years of data later, the curse doesn't hold up.
Let's zoom out and look at what really happens when you end up on the cover.
The Numbers: Curse? Not So Fast.
We looked at all 23 offensive players who have graced the Madden cover since 2001—shout-out to our Jason Wood for pulling these rankings in. You can see each cover player below and how they actually finished the season....
The NFL Draft is in the books, and our Rookie Draft Guide is ready. Version 3.0 includes new team fits, depth chart projections, refined scouting intel, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s your complete blueprint for dominating dynasty rookie drafts.
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook was not present for the offseason workout Tuesday, June 3.
Our view: Cook has made his desire for a new contract clear, but the Bills don't appear to have budged, even after his second straight 1,000-yard season, in which he averaged nearly five yards per carry and rushed for a league-high 16 touchdowns. So, Cook is staying away from voluntary OTAs. His absence will continue to draw attention, but at this point, there's no reason to believe Cook won't be on the field for the regular season.
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin was not present for the offseason workout Wednesday, June 4.
Our view: The Commanders and the wide receiver's representatives are in a standoff regarding another lucrative contract extension ahead of time. Nobody is pressing the panic button just yet, but the situation needs a successful resolution sooner rather than later. We'll continue to watch for more.
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren said he is ready to take on a large role in the offense but does not expect his role to significantly increase since RBs Kaleb Johnson and Kenneth Gainwell are on the roster.
Our view: Warren still projects as the lead running back, but sharing with Johnson and Gainwell is baked into Warren's RB27 Footballguys Projection. But even at that, Johnson's RB33 spot and lower average draft position makes him appealing. Both are reasonably priced depth options at the position.
San Francisco 49ers WR Jauan Jennings (undisclosed) participated in individual drills during practice Wednesday, June 4, but sat out team drills.
Our view: While the San Francisco 49ers struggled to secure six wins last season, Jennings had his most productive campaign. He set career highs in targets (113), receptions (77), receiving yards (975), and touchdowns (6). Now entering the final year of his contract, Jennings is in line to be the 49ers' top wideout in Week 1, especially with Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a significant knee injury. Jennings is currently a solid value, going as WR34 on Underdog in Round 6.
Cleveland Browns QB Kenny Pickett received the first snaps with the starting offense during team drills Wednesday, June 4.
Our view: The Browns brought back 2023 hero Joe Flacco and drafted two young quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. However, Pickett was the first man up as the team took the field. Still, as USA Today suggests, it's far too early to give any of this credence. Training camp does not even start for another month and a half. That said, the Athletic's Zac Jackson recently advised readers there's "almost no scenario" in which either rookie would win the starting job in the offseason. The early expectation is Joe Flacco will open the season as the starter.
New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson said he is very comfortable with the offensive playbook because offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was with the Patriots when he was a rookie.
Our view: Stevenson rushed for 606 yards with five touchdowns during that rookie campaign. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Stevenson might still have his spot atop the team's running back depth chart, but New England drafted TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of April's NFL Draft. More action for Henderson would mean less for Stevenson, who rushed for 801 yards and a career-high seven touchdowns for the Patriots over 15 games in 2024. Fantasy investors are drafting that way. Henderson is RB28 on the Footballguys Projections. Stevenson is RB37.
New York Jets WR Malachi Corley (undisclosed) worked with a trainer on the side during practice Tuesday, June 3.
Our view: The previous regime found no use for Corley's talents, and the third-round pick was on the inactive list for much of his rookie campaign. This year, a new regime that has no loyalty to him isn't sure where he fits. "Now, we have a ways to go to really try to figure out exactly where we're going to place him," new HC Aaron Glenn said, "because he's been in and out, that's just what it is." The more Corley has to sit out with injuries, the harder it will be for the new staff to figure out his role.
Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon (undisclosed) did not participate in the offseason workout Tuesday, June 3, but is expected to be ready for training camp, according to a source. Mixon has been wearing a walking boot this offseason, according to sources.
Our view: Mixon has been an observer for most of the team's OTAs, but again, there isn't any concern about his availability for training camp. Mixon finished 2024, his first season with the Texans, as RB10. He is being drafted as RB16 with the 51st pick overall in early best balls.
Houston Texans TE Dalton Schultz (undisclosed) participated on the offseason workout Tuesday, June 3, after missing time last week.
Our view: Schultz was reportedly moving well and caught a touchdown pass during Tuesday's session. Before last year, Schultz was widely regarded as a strength for Houston, essentially serving as the fourth option in the aerial attack. However, a disappointing 2024 shoved Schultz off the fantasy radar. He's being drafted as TE27 this offseason.
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr was placed on the Reserve/Retired list Tuesday, June 3.
Our view: The NFL reserve/retired list is used for players who have officially retired from the league but still have a contract with a team. When a player retires and is placed on this list, the team's contract with them is tolled, meaning the contract remains in place, and the team retains the player's rights if they choose to unretire. As of now, that isn't in the cards for Carr. We'll see if he's in that same place next year.
Thanks for reading. And thanks for being part of the Footballguys family. Whether you’ve been with us for years or just joined the huddle, we’re grateful to be part of your fantasy journey.
With Father’s Day coming up, here’s to all the dads, mentors, and league commissioners out there passing down smack talk, spreadsheets, and Sunday traditions.
We’ll see you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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