Trevor Lawrence: Don't Stop Believing
By Colton Dodgson - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Don't Stop Believing
Attempting to make a definitive statement about Trevor Lawrence's career to this point feels premature at best.
You could fairly say he's underwhelmed, both in real football terms and in fantasy production. But three head coaches in five seasons is hardly the ideal foundation for developing a quarterback, no matter how talented. From that angle, Lawrence might have exceeded expectations, given the instability around him.
What's clear now is that the situation in Jacksonville is shifting. New general manager James Gladstone wasted no time making bold roster decisions. Outside of the 2025 draft class, no player on the roster is one he selected. Even those who survived the initial cuts may not be safe beyond this season.
RELATED: See all of our 2025 Player Spotlights here.
Lawrence is one of the few exceptions. Financially, he's locked in through 2028. That deal gives him enough runway to prove, once and for all, that he's the long-term answer at quarterback. But make no mistake: the pressure is on.
Jacksonville's plan is transparent. Hiring Liam Coen, fresh off a resurgent season with Baker Mayfield and building a receiver room tailored to his scheme, signals a clear organizational priority. This is about maximizing Trevor Lawrence. Now it's on the quarterback to deliver.
If it all clicks, fantasy managers could see a major payoff.
This article aims to explore why Lawrence stalled after his step forward in 2022. Yes, injuries and turnovers played a role. But are there deeper issues beneath the surface? And more importantly, does this new offense finally give him the structure and support needed to thrive?
There is always more to the story. So, let's dig in.
The Production Roller Coaster
This case is not as simple as labeling Trevor Lawrence a bust. Success hasn't eluded him entirely. His 2022 season, his second in the league and first under Doug Pederson, looked like a breakout. Lawrence finished as the QB8 with 303.7 fantasy points, averaging 17.9 points per game and offering weekly QB1 reliability.
Since then, though, the numbers tell a different story. His air yards per attempt climbed in each of the next two seasons, but that increase came with more risk and less precision. His tight window throw rate also rose, a sign he was working harder for the same results.
Trevor Lawrence's Career Passing Metrics
The data shows a quarterback pulling the trigger less often, targeting deeper routes more frequently, and connecting on them with decreasing accuracy. Lawrence's completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) dropped to -4.2 percent in 2024, down from -0.5 in 2023 and -0.6 in 2022. That regression made each attempt less efficient and more volatile.
Injuries contributed to the downturn in 2024. Lawrence missed time and was asked to do less when he played. But even in limited action, he struggled to make the most of his opportunities. His interception rate held steady at 2.5 percent, matching 2023. That is a far cry from the 1.4 percent rate he posted in 2022, which is much closer to the version fantasy managers are hoping to see return.
The upside? Liam Coen just helped Baker Mayfield turn in one of the most efficient seasons of his career. If that trend carries over, Lawrence could find himself back in rhythm, producing at a level far more aligned with his pedigree....
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