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J
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Trevor Lawrence: Don't Stop Believing – Colton Dodgson looks at how Liam Coen revived Baker Mayfield’s value — and whether Trevor Lawrence can be next.
Houston Texans Fantasy Overview - Our Footballguys Staff delivers a complete Texans roundup — with upside from C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., and caution flags on Joe Mixon and Christian Kirk. From offensive shifts to IDP depth, this overview covers every angle fantasy managers need.
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Don't Stop Believing
Attempting to make a definitive statement about Trevor Lawrence's career to this point feels premature at best.
You could fairly say he's underwhelmed, both in real football terms and in fantasy production. But three head coaches in five seasons is hardly the ideal foundation for developing a quarterback, no matter how talented. From that angle, Lawrence might have exceeded expectations, given the instability around him.
What's clear now is that the situation in Jacksonville is shifting. New general manager James Gladstone wasted no time making bold roster decisions. Outside of the 2025 draft class, no player on the roster is one he selected. Even those who survived the initial cuts may not be safe beyond this season.
Lawrence is one of the few exceptions. Financially, he's locked in through 2028. That deal gives him enough runway to prove, once and for all, that he's the long-term answer at quarterback. But make no mistake: the pressure is on.
Jacksonville's plan is transparent. Hiring Liam Coen, fresh off a resurgent season with Baker Mayfield and building a receiver room tailored to his scheme, signals a clear organizational priority. This is about maximizing Trevor Lawrence. Now it's on the quarterback to deliver.
If it all clicks, fantasy managers could see a major payoff.
This article aims to explore why Lawrence stalled after his step forward in 2022. Yes, injuries and turnovers played a role. But are there deeper issues beneath the surface? And more importantly, does this new offense finally give him the structure and support needed to thrive?
There is always more to the story. So, let's dig in.
The Production Roller Coaster
This case is not as simple as labeling Trevor Lawrence a bust. Success hasn't eluded him entirely. His 2022 season, his second in the league and first under Doug Pederson, looked like a breakout. Lawrence finished as the QB8 with 303.7 fantasy points, averaging 17.9 points per game and offering weekly QB1 reliability.
Since then, though, the numbers tell a different story. His air yards per attempt climbed in each of the next two seasons, but that increase came with more risk and less precision. His tight window throw rate also rose, a sign he was working harder for the same results.
The data shows a quarterback pulling the trigger less often, targeting deeper routes more frequently, and connecting on them with decreasing accuracy. Lawrence's completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) dropped to -4.2 percent in 2024, down from -0.5 in 2023 and -0.6 in 2022. That regression made each attempt less efficient and more volatile.
Injuries contributed to the downturn in 2024. Lawrence missed time and was asked to do less when he played. But even in limited action, he struggled to make the most of his opportunities. His interception rate held steady at 2.5 percent, matching 2023. That is a far cry from the 1.4 percent rate he posted in 2022, which is much closer to the version fantasy managers are hoping to see return.
The upside? Liam Coen just helped Baker Mayfield turn in one of the most efficient seasons of his career. If that trend carries over, Lawrence could find himself back in rhythm, producing at a level far more aligned with his pedigree....
Miami Dolphins TE Darren Waller has played in an offensive system similar to head coach Mike McDaniel's system and should be able to pick up the offense relatively quickly, in the opinion of The Miami Herald's Kaitlyn Pohly.
Our view: Waller is also familiar with Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith, who coached the Raiders' tight ends from 2018 to 2020 -- Waller's best NFL seasons. All that said, while Waller might well end up the Dolphins' starting tight end, his presence on an NFL roster doesn't necessarily mean he merits a spot on yours. He opens up as TE31 on the Footballguys Projections.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield threw 17 touchdowns against the blitz during the 2024 season.
Our view: PewterReport's Adam Slivon added to this by noting that in 220 drop-backs when blitzed, Mayfield completed 73.3% of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions. His ability to distribute the ball quickly and efficiently has drastically improved since entering the NFL. Mayfield, who finished last season as QB4, is currently being drafted as QB7 in Round 7.
Denver Broncos WR Marvin Mims 'looks like the best candidate' to be the team's No. 2 receiver in 2025, according to Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post.
Our view: Mims made an instant impact on special teams as a rookie, earning a Pro Bowl berth and second-team All-Pro selection as a returner in 2023. He did not have a large role on offense, but that changed during his second season. The 23-year-old speedster ended last season with 545 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns (a significant increase from his one offensive touchdown in 2023). He has emerged as an all-around weapon for Denver, and Mims continues to trend up going into Year 3. Mims is being drafted as WR61 in Round 13 this year.
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young worked out with several of the team's pass catchers last week. WR Tetairoa McMillan, WR Xavier Legette, WR Adam Thielen, WR David Moore, WR Jimmy Horn Jr., WR Kobe Hudson and TE Ja'Tavion Sanders were among the pass catchers at the workout.
Our view: The group linked up in Minnesota this past week to work with Ryan Englebert of ETS Performance. Young finished last season with a strong run, so the work they're putting in this week could give the third-year QB a jumpstart when the Panthers hit the field at training camp later this month. The team's rookies report back to Charlotte on July 21 and veterans on July 22.
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins said he felt a little 'misled' when the Falcons took QB Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, in the first episode of Netflix's 'Quarterback.' Cousins said he was aware the Falcons might draft a quarterback, but definitely not that high. He wasn't informed about the Penix pick until a phone call by offensive coordinator Zac Robinson while Atlanta was on the clock. 'Certainly, if I had the information around free agency, it certainly would've affected my decision,' Cousins said on the first episode of the season. 'I had no reason to leave Minnesota with how much we loved it there if both teams are going to be drafting a quarterback high. But I've also learned in 12 years in this league that you're not entitled to anything. It's all about being able to earn your spot and prove yourself.'
Our view: Cousins led the Falcons to a 6-3 start last season before taking a hard hit to his right arm in Week 10. The Falcons' season took a sharp downward turn beginning with that game. They eventually benched Cousins in Week 16. Penix took over and played solidly, though the team went 1-2 in those games and missed the playoffs. For now, Cousins will serve as the backup to Penix. But Atlanta would surely listen to trade offers if they're out there, with the hope that a team is willing to take on a chunk of his guaranteed $27.5Â million salary.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) declared himself fully healthy Tuesday, July 8, and ready to go for training camp, pending one more checkup with the team doctors.
Our view: Prescott, who turns 31 at the end of the month, suffered a season-ending hamstring tear in Week 9 last season. But he was able to participate in much of the Cowboys' offseason program, telling reporters in May that he'd been cleared for everything but contact. Remember, Prescott has finished as a QB1 six times in his career -- every year he's played a full 16- or 17-game season. He led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and finished as QB3 as recently as 2023. He's being drafted as QB14 in the tenth round this year.
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