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The Top 10 from Week 3

Matt Waldman's weekly film-and-fantasy review examines Justin Fields' Cleveland Nightmare, Trey Sermon's limited utilization, D.K. Metcalf's transformation, Buffalo and L.A.'s WR antique roadshow, and Fresh Fish. 

By Matt Waldman
September 27, 2021
The Top 10 from Week 3
Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

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MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 3'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. The issues behind Justin Fields' disappointing rookie debut go beyond Fields' individual performance. Still, there's low-hanging fruit with his quarterbacking that Fields must address in order to have future success. Although he won't face a defense as formidable as the Cleveland Browns every week, it's clear the Bears' staff hasn't fitted the scheme to its franchise pick and it limits Fields' year-one upside.
  2. Trey Sermon was the only healthy running back of note for the 49ers and still didn't the anticipated debut according to the box score or the utilization analytics, but the film and the 49ers' utilization of Kyle Juszczyk and Deebo Samuel provide a contextual explanation in favor of Sermon that flies in the face of the data.
  3. Ja'Marr Chase had another strong performance — this time, dismantling the Steelers' secondary. In addition to his work against physical coverage, Chase's technique as a pass-catcher reveals a valuable piece of hindsight to the concerns over his summer practices.
  4. D.K. Metcalf is transforming his short game and making valuable post-snap adjustments, which makes him even more dangerous — and reliable for fantasy GMs.
  5. Emmanuel Sanders scored twice on Washington and made a resounding statement that his age is still only a number on the field. Get Sanders if someone dropped him. In contrast, DeSean Jackson's age may be why the Rams are saving him for big games.
  6. Alexander Mattison and the Vikings offense out-schemed and out-executed the Seahawks' defense on Sunday, proving why there are specific player-team fits that make them ideal handcuffs to fantasy studs.
  7. Overtime is "Bryan Edwards' Time" in Las Vegas, but his greatest obstacle to consistent fantasy production could be Hunter Renfrow.
  8. I have been critical of Baker Mayfield and while there's still reason for concern that many Browns' fans want to whitewash with each victory and positive data point, analytics have difficulty with small sample-size plays. It is these small samples that show Mayfield is a better "scheme talent" than "individual-matchup talent" and it's where this long and promising road may dead-end in fantasy and reality.
  9. Chuba Hubbard is a developing talent who showed enough to earn the first shot to replace Christian McCaffrey if McCaffrey misses multiple games. However, he's an incomplete player at this stage of his game and Royce Freeman is a cheap hedge worth consideration.
  10. Age is not only a number for Ben Roethlisberger, who headlines Week 3's Fresh Fish beating Marquise Brown by a step.
    • Marquise Brown's three cringeworthy drops.
    • Melvin Ingram III tried to make a fool out of Tyler Boyd and got clowned with his poor tackling.
    • Chicago's offensive line for its sloppy execution.
    • Chicago's head coach for not adjusting his scheme and game plan to Justin Field's strengths back in the summer.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. The Easy and Difficult Fixes for Justin Fields and the Bears

My friends over at Keepin' It 100 have been warning Bears' fans all summer about the likelihood that Matt Nagy would not adjust his offense to his talent based on his past behavior — even if that talent is its future franchise quarterback. As I told my daughter and a fellow Marine with her last week, Halloween would come a month early for Justin Fields and the Bears when they headed to Cleveland and not the fun kind with candy and pumpkins.

Rather, a Rob Zombie-Stephen King mashup starring "Michael Myles" Garrett and Jadeveon "IT" Clowney.

Like all good slasher flicks, the victims wind up in an unfortunate circumstance not always of their own making but compound the horror with awful decision-making due to the pressure and denial of their limitations. The first to die is often the most competent character whereas the lone survivor has hidden or undiscovered traits to barely escape death but they are often forever scarred by the experience.

The most competent character in the Bears' offense at Sunday's matinee in Cleveland was David Montgomery and if Matt Nagy had developed a scheme around read-plays with Montgomery and Fields, we might have seen a lot more early success that kept the Browns off-balance.

Unlike John Harbaugh and the Ravens, who implemented a scheme during Lamar Jackson's rookie training camp to fit Jackson once Jackson took the field but eliminated the option-game while Joe Flacco remained the starter, Nagy's use of the option was pure window dressing. It was as if Nagy was waiving a stick of dynamite at the Browns' defense but Cleveland saw the book of matches falling from the coach's pocket.

This play on the first drive was the only time I remember seeing Fields and Montgomery execute an option read. There may have been more, but not enough to slow down Garrett and Clowney, who slashed through the Bears' offensive line like a pair of cinematic killers through a sorority, an insane asylum, or a lake house.

The Browns sacked Fields seven times in this game. At its fundamental core, Fields is the victim of his coaching staff and offensive line. This is a difficult fix because it takes the leadership of the Bears to recognize that there's an incompetent intractability with those who create the scheme and the game plan.

Remember the misdirection plays with boot action in the preseason with Fields throwing opposite field? There was little to any of that on display. The Bears have dynamite and they're using it as a knife sharpener.

If analysts such as myself or Mark Schofield can sum up a lot of the offensive issues in Chicago as "thinking curl/flat is the answer to every problem," it's a pithy statement about an inflexible coach. If the Bears don't make adjustments, Fields' opportunities to create will remain capped whenever he's in the game.

The fact that Nagy told the media that Andy Dalton remains the starter when he returns from injury adds to the likelihood that Nagy doesn't want to adjust to Fields' talents but demands Fields become something that he's not — right now, or maybe ever.

Still, Fields is an able-bodied talent with great potential who has issues to address — including low-hanging fruit if he works at his craft away from the game plan. These are behaviors that are common for rookie passers but are ultimately their responsibility to improve and it contributed to Fields' dismal outing.

The lowest of the low-hanging fruit is Fields' drop footwork. As referenced with Jameis Winston's Week 1 performance, drop footwork sets the stage for how a quarterback sees the field, the rhythm and timing that he has with route progressions, his efficiency maneuvering the pocket, and his overall accuracy as a thrower.

If the drop footwork isn't precise, the quarterback's game lacks the high-end precision necessary for consistent passing in the NFL. And if the footwork isn't sound before pressure arrives, it's an even greater liability as steady pressure deteriorates the pocket.

The disruptive force of Cleveland's defensive front deserves a lot of credit but if the quarterback was Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, or even Teddy Bridgewater — passers who have mastered their footwork — they would have been able to deliver more than 47 yards of offense. Their offenses would have been far more competitive.

Because Fields, like many top prospects over the past 25-30 years, arrived in the NFL without this mastery of drops, it means he lacks a foundation to make strong decisions. He's thinking so much about what's happening around him but his feet aren't in a position for him to execute and it leads to erratic choices and/or execution — especially under pressure.

If the foundation (the feet) lacks precision and clarity it's a sign that the quarterback's mind is swimming with details — thinking/remembering rather than playing. Thinking and remembering is a conscious act, playing in the way I'm using the word is like subconscious like breathing, walking, or blinking.

Even when the Bears occasionally tried misdirection, they did so in the compressed area of the field where pressure had the advantage in disrupting a long-developing play and a quarterback who lacks the precision with his base to make quick and pinpoint decisions in these scenarios.

The best thing that Fields can do is develop his footwork because, regardless of the staff that will be in place, it's something within Fields' control and he can make even a bad game plan manageable. Right now, Fields' decision-making, timing, and vision of the field all need improvement. The same can be said of every quarterback with less than three years of experience in the NFL today. Unfortunately, the Bears staff is also exacerbating Fields' issues with its approach to offensive football.

If Chicago implements more of the read-option game with Fields in the coming weeks, they at least gained some clue. If Fields does his part and the Bears accommodate his talents as a runner, it could open the ground game even more for David Montgomery, and the Bears could get earn some quick-hitting big plays for its receivers. These fixes could also create a strong foundation for effective play-action to enhance the vertical passing game, which Fields is good at.

For now, counting on Fields to deliver fantasy value is a massive boom-bust prospect. He's no more than a desperation-play against weaker defenses that can't rush the passer until we see the Bears incorporate more misdirection plays and option reads that tap into the most compelling aspects of Fields' game as he's developing into a fully-formed professional.

2. Context Matters — Trey Sermon's Debut: Beyond Utilization and Box Score

My friend and colleague Dwain McFarland of PFF created the first Utilization Report, one of many that are being copied by the analysis industry. On Sunday night, his report on Trey Sermon wasn't promising.

From this context as well as Sermon's box score of 10 attempts for 31 yards rushing and a goalline score and 3 targets with 2 catches for 3 yards and a drop in the passing game, it wasn't a good night for Sermon. However, as my friend's Twitter handle states: Context matters and there's more context deserving coverage to Sermon — the film and what we already knew heading into the game but haven't considered with enough critical thought.

Sermon's actual on-field performance was good when studying the context of his runs. Two of his first three touches suffered from the Packers' front resetting the 49ers' line of scrimmage in the backfield. Even so, Sermon managed to display the contact balance, footwork, and short-area quickness to either turn a likely loss into a positive gain or stay alive with the hope of turning a negative into a positive.

Although Elijah Mitchell had the benefit of superior execution upfront against the Lions, he did not negotiate early penetration against the Eagles as well as Sermon did last night against the Packers. Mitchell has never been as effective as Sermon on inside zone plays and the 49ers didn't give Mitchell green zone touches. Those opportunities went to JaMycal Hasty.

When used in short-yardage, Sermon performed well, earning a first-down and a touchdown on those carries.

Sermon only had one pass protection assignment on Sunday night and he delivered with a good blitz pickup on a blown assignment upfront.

Mitchell and Hasty haven't been used extensively as pass protectors and Kyle Shanahan described their efforts as shaky and seeking improvement.

When comparing the backs as close as one can on film, Sermon had one large crease in this game and he exploited it. The 49ers opened more creases for Mitchell in two games than we saw for Sermon on Sunday night and there were more favorable game scripts for running the ball in Weeks 1 and 2.

Sermon also earned zones between the tackles that Mitchell didn't and the 49ers line did a better job with perimeter players during the first two weeks thanks in part to its early execution and a favorable game script that allowed them to continue running.

But what about the Utilization Report? Why would the 49ers use Kyle Juszczyk and Deebo Samuel as runners and receivers from the backfield on passing downs, long-yardage, and in the red zone when Sermon was the only healthy back? If Sermon is supposed to be so good, why would he be so limited in usage? Doesn't utilization have predictive value?

Great questions. First, utilization has value and it can deliver some predictive value provided that there's a large enough sample size and the context matches the situation. I believe this is an exceptional circumstance that doesn't fit the data:

  • The only healthy running backs behind Sermon for this game with scheme familiarity were Kerryon Johnson and Trent Cannon. Johnson's knees are shot and Cannon is a return specialist with two weeks of knowledge of the offense.
  • Sermon and Mitchell didn't practice for much of the week due to injury. Sermon wasn't cleared for the game until Saturday.
  • The unknown status of Sermon's ability meant the 49ers had to install and practice a game plan with the personnel it knew it could count on, which meant using its best-available players.
  • The best available options earning these reps were Juszczyk and Samuel, who kept the offense versatile and unpredictable than the limitations of the scheme-ignorant and smallish Cannon and kneeless Johnson.
  • If Sermon got hurt in this game, the 49ers lacked a legitimate option behind him to keep an opposing defense from cheating towards the pass and not respecting the run at all.

The fact that Sermon, a rookie who needs reps as he's still learning the offense just like any rookie — something every second-year player will explain in hindsight during their second training camp — didn't earn the reps for this week's gameplan due to his time in concussion protocol.

While most fantasy GMs and analysts dislike nuance because they want simple answers and like to gloss over anything happening with Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco as drama and confusing, this isn't that confusing when you understand the machinations of game planning, football practice, and head injury protocol. The dots connect rather easily.

Now, Sermon could wind up flopping, and the casual viewer who doesn't understand the differences between a running back's approach to zone and gap blocking will just maintain the Sermon looks slow and they never saw much from him in the first place will pat himself on the back for his end-result accuracy without a knowledgeably-rooted process. However, I would advise you to hang onto Sermon or continue buying low from disgruntled fantasy GMs who are impatient with the long game of the regular season.

Mitchell will likely return as the lead back and earn much of his usage as a perimeter threat on toss and wide-zone plays. But Sermon will continue earning touches and the door to the lead role is far from shut. If you drafted Sermon, you didn't draft him with the expectation of earning a significant role until midseason if Raheem Mostert was healthy.

The optics of the early season are different, but the expectation should remain the same when given the context above. Sermon's talent isn't an issue any more than it was for Nick Chubb, Marshawn Lynch, Alexander Mattison (see below), or Ja'Marr Chase. These players are but a small sample of talented options who a majority of reactionary thinkers judged too early.

Stick with Sermon or buy-low. As long as you're not clogging up your roster with a lot of "holds," this is one worth your patience.

3. JaMarr Chase Wrecks the Steelers and Delivers Valuable Hindsight

A sound process often leads to sustainable productivity. Just as there are signs that Sermon has a sound process that will eventually weather the early turbulence of circumstances beyond his control, Chase has shown that he has weathered the chaos that the media generated from his multiple drops in August practices and preseason efforts.

I've already covered the deterioration of football practices into performance art due to the allowance of media but an examination of Chase's work thus far reveals that the rookie receiver's process as a pass-catcher had sound enough technique to know, at least in hindsight, that he would figure out his drops.

In all but the final video, Chase has perfect technique with his hands when catching the target. There was also a target over the middle that I didn't share which also illustrates his perfect technique. These are skills a wide receiver learns in one summer. Chase has been using this technique for years.

When a receiver's drops occur and the hands are used correctly to address the ball, it's often the result of the receiver focused on everything happening leading up to the ball's arrival: The release, the stem, the break, the coverage, last-moment route adjustments, and his position relative to the defender and the target. When forced to gain new information in these areas, it's common to begin making mistakes with things you know because you're still in the process of integrating all of this old and new information.

The fact that Chase is catching the ball with minimal issues during the season and using his hands well to earn separation off the line and during his break on vertical routes is a good indication that Chase has integrated his summer lessons into his game. Although most of us expected the Steelers to be more physical with Chase this week, he was effective with the physicality he faced.

Until further notice, Chase is the primary option and most dangerous receiving threat on the Bengals.

4. DK Metcalf Is transforming before Our Eyes

As most of us know, Metcalf entered the league with the reputation of a big and strong receiver with great speed who wins deep or in open space after the catch. Route running beyond a straight line, especially hard-breaking routes were a source of concern for Metcalf's potential to become a primary weapon in an NFL offense.

My contention since Metcalf's final year at Ole Miss was that his size, speed, strength, and suddenness with specific short-area movements would compensate for his lack of hip flexibility in many ways. Because he can run through or away from cornerbacks, they have to give him more cushion than the average receiver, so he doesn't have to execute breaks with the same sharpness to get open. This became a known truth about his game during his rookie year.

Still, it was questionable to expect Metcalf to earn separation with underneath routes in the shallow zones where there's tight coverage and little room to generate momentum with a long stem. This year, Metcalf has added some of these shorter routes to his bag and he's doing so because he's leveraging his size, strength, speed, intensity, and suddenness of movement in ways that he does well.

The first route is one Metcalf performed successfully against the Colts in the opener. Doing so against Patrick Peterson takes his performance to a whole other level. And as you can see with the second route, Breshad Breeland felt forced to give Metcalf more cushion than he'd normally supply a receiver.

Breeland was seen talking with his defensive back coach after the play, telling the coach why he felt the need to do so and asking what he should do. It didn't appear the coach had much of an answer.

Metcalf's improvements just aren't about finding techniques that complement his athletic prowess. He's also executing smart post-snap adjustments with his routes and with clear, non-verbal communication to Russell Wilson.

Fortunately, Tyler Lockett's knee injury wasn't serious and he was allowed to return to the game. Even with a healthy Lockett terrorizing the deepest reaches of zone coverage, Metcalf's game has grown during his brief NFL career and his re-draft value should remain stable.

5. Roadshow Antiques Market: Emmanuel Sanders and DeSean Jackson

Two older players I recommended in various capacities this season came to life this weekend. Sanders was the season-long recommendation as a massive late-round bargain, thanks to the widespread misunderstanding of his skills and his fit with the Saints' offense.

Jackson was the bold call as an early-season big-play payday with ephemeral value.

Let's start with Sanders, who has the best shot of season-long production at a starter level for fantasy GMs in leagues starting 2-3 receivers. Unlike Jackson, who teams now view as a part-time player capable of weighty impact when on the field in selected exposures, Sanders is still counted on as an every-down option.

Whereas the Rams want to get Jackson wide-open in space with vertical shots and schemed plays, Sanders is still asked to work underneath without huge swaths of space around him.

At the same time, Sanders still wins in the vertical game. As pointed out by 4for4 fantasy's John Paulson in response to my summer article, Sander's speed within his first 10 yards remains intact when examining his separation metrics. The biggest issue for Sanders last year was the lack of velocity in Drew Brees' arm and pinpoint accuracy from either Winston or Taysom Hill, which forced Sanders to leave his feet for targets and limit his opportunities for yardage after the catch.

As you can see above, Sanders has no problem transitioning quickly for extra yardage when catching the ball on his feet. He's also winning in the vertical game.

When he has to adjust to the ball in difficult scenarios, he's also making Josh Allen look great.

Sanders is a better route runner than John Brown and he's fast enough to function in Brown's role in the vertical game. He's also tougher at the catch point. Gabriel Davis is a nice young player with skills at the catch-point and when given a lot of free access to the middle of the field, but he's nowhere nearly as versatile as Sanders.

If Josh Allen is to continue producing near the rate of his 2020 campaign, Sanders will have to be one of the two most productive options in this passing game. Yesterday, he was and Allen had his best game of the month and one indicative of fantasy GMs' expectations.

In contrast, it's possible the Rams are using Jackson in the role of a big-game ringer, hoping to save him for those occasions, especially if they cruise into the postseason. Jackson still has the talent that made him one of the most productive receivers of the past 12-15 years when healthy. During this span, Jackson is one of the leaders in fantasy WR1-caliber seasons generated.

Not something most realize.

The talent is still there, but his durability has become a greater question. The Rams hope to manage this situation with high-leverage reps that get Jackson into the open field thanks to the attention that opponents must pay to Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and even Tyler Higbee.

As you can see below, Higbee's work in the screen game forced safeties to cheat closer to the line and would ultimately open the field for Jackson deep. The details of the plays also made the screen less predictable because a lot of tight-end screens use linemen as the primary blockers and the Rams did a great job of leveraging the talents of Kupp and Woods in at least one of these looks to keep the Buccaneers guessing.

With the safeties forced to account for these constraint plays, Jackson had some choice opportunities to get lost behind the coverage or beat safeties straight-up. In fact, if not for a defensive holding foul on one covering defender playing Jackson and an underthrown ball due to heavy pressure, Jackson might have had a 200-yard day with 2-3 touchdowns. Not that him earning 120 yards and a score was bad...

When the Rams went to Jackson in the short passing game, they finessed him open with alignments that created confusion for the Tampa defense.

Sean McVay told the broadcast crew that he wanted to get Jackson involved in the early games but didn't find a way to do so. I don't believe this for a second. I think they are saving Jackson for big games. This was the biggest game on the schedule to date and if the Rams can continue rolling, you may only see him in key divisional games or contests with playoff implications.

As long as he's not listed on an injury report for those weeks, he's a great flex play.

6. Alexander Mattison and the Vikings' Offense: The Perfect Cuff

Long-time Mattison fan here. Getting a chance to watch him gash Seattle's defense was a personal source of ambivalence because the Seahawks are my NFC team of choice. I'm an AFC guy and primarily a Browns fan with some hard-to-quit admiration for my childhood team, the former Cleveland Browns now called the Ravens.

You become more comfortable living with ambivalence when you gain life experience. At least some of us do.

Mattison could have been a starter in the league. I'm still hoping he earns a shot to do so when his contract expires, but NFL running backs have a short shelf life — even when it's due to the occasional gaps of perspective that short-term thinkers with desks in NFL facilities possess.

On Sunday, Mattison and the Vikings' ground game demonstrated why offensive coach Klint Kubiak was confident that the offense would not have a lot of angst over the short-term loss of Dalvin Cook. A skilled zone runner, Mattison's familiarity with Minnesota's diverse scheme that employs a variety of spread and compressed alignments that include fullbacks, multiple tight ends, and/or multiple receivers proved as much of an asset as his vision, footwork, and contact balance.

Mattison's knowledge of the scheme and pitch-perfect execution meant Kubiak didn't have to limit the playbook. In fact, it appeared as if the Vikings expanded the playbook for Mattison — something the Seahawks weren't prepared to see. There were a lot of sneaky runs with zone blocking but counter-motion from the fullback — some of my favorite type of run plays I see as a student of the game.

These three plays kept the Seahawks' front guessing — and guessing wrong — throughout the contest. The third play in this sequence of examples is the most devious after they established a precedent of success with the FB counter early in the game and led to the longest run of the contest.

Knowing that Seattle likes to play aggressive with its front-seven and add blitzing wunderkind safety Jamaal Adams as the cherry on top, the counter plays weren't the only successful part of the plan involving Mattison. Seattle also plays a lot of Cover 3 to safeguard the deep quadrants of the field from threats as good as Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and the underrated Tyler Higbee and K.J. Osborn.

Because these receivers forced the linebackers and defensive backs to honor the vertical game from specific offensive alignments, the Vikings parlayed this into a productive screen game, a staple of Minnesota's offense with Cook and clearly without him.

It doesn't hurt that Mattison's pass protection has always been good enough that it sets up the screen game effectively.

Mattison may never become a top starter due to his lengthy tenure in Minnesota and the youth movement that is the NFL, but he's the reason why you handcuff specific players with enthusiasm. I don't believe in cuffing all running backs you draft as starters. However, Mattison fits the criteria that I recommend you consider for this role in your fantasy lineups:

  • The offensive line is one of the strengths of the team.
  • The scheme relies on a diverse set of plays in the ground game, making the running game as unpredictable as the passing game.
  • The backup has been regarded as a starter talent behind a star or has been in the scheme long enough that the coaches don't have to limit the playbook.
  • The backup is a full-fledged player as a runner, receiver, and blocker.

If you have 3-4 of these factors in play with one of them being the offensive line as a strength, the back is a must-cuff option.

7. Overtime Is "Edwards-Time" in Vegas but It's Always the Right Time for...

Hunter Renfrow, a slot receiver whose underrated work in the vertical game makes him enough of a weapon for John Gruden to employ him as a versatile contributor in this Raiders offense.

I've shown multiple vertical shots for Renfrow over the years, including last week's double move against the Steelers. However, he's also a pain in the hind parts for top cornerbacks to cover in the middle of the field. Xavien Howard, who I temporarily mistook for a linebacker due to his size and didn't see his number, fell victim to one of the more ingenious and efficient triple-moves you'll see in the NFL.

These are routes that you see a lot of beat writers and inexperienced draft analysts drool over from the likes of Braxton Miller and Andy Isabella in January that won't happen in the league. However, Renfrow also showed at this game's practices and most importantly, his college film, that he can win one-on-one on the perimeter as a short and intermediate threat.

The multiple nature of the Raiders offense with two excellent young tight ends, Kenyan Drake, and three strong receivers allows Gruden to mix and match alignments that keep defenses honest. It also makes Bryan Edwards a prospect who seems difficult to buy into. Two of his first three starter efforts this year were the result of late-game targets and the third non-starter performance would have been productive if two plays weren't nullified by offensive penalties, including a touchdown.

Edwards' value carries more weight with Derek Carr in clutch moments.

Still, he makes plays earlier in games when given high-leverage opportunities.

Renfrow is a solid flex option moving forward for PPR formats. Edwards has the greatest upside if Hill or Waller gets hurt but the most variable outcomes as the 3-A or 3-B with Renfrow for most of the game. Until then, hope for more games that are tight until the very end.

8. Baker Mayfield's Pocket Play Is Improving but Is His Game a Dead-End?

I am a Mayfield skeptic when it comes to the idea that he's an elite quarterback in the making — or already elite, according to the most fervent Browns' fans-Mayfield backers. I see Mayfield as a Jeff Garcia-type of quarterback. A player who can execute a good scheme fit for his game at a high level, even a Pro-Bowl level like Garcia once did in San Francisco.

I never thought Mayfield was anything more than a "scheme talent." Comparing Mayfield with Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Brett Favre implies that Mayfield is a mismatch talent or individual talent at the highest level — players who could transcend the scheme and make plays against the best defenses and/or defenders who take away the strength of a gameplan.

I'm not talking about transcending these obstacles in every circumstance. There are 3-5 plays in every game where a defense can force a quarterback to win as an individual-mismatch talent. If the game is in hand, these plays are considered "nice-to-have plays that were difficult circumstances." These plays are critiqued in the public eye unless the game script demanded success on the play. Otherwise, the critiques are regarded as nitpicking from loyalists to a team or player.

It's a tribal part of fandom — don't pick on my own unless we lose because of him and he disappoints us.

When these 3-5 plays happen in close contests, the average starters in the league often execute 1-2 of them and keep the game close. The above-average starters execute 2-3 of these plays and often put the team in a position to win. The best starters execute 3-4 of these plays frequently enough to win more games than they lose.

Mayfield is in a great place. He has one of the best offensive lines in the league that executes as diverse of a run game in the NFL. He has the best 1-2 punch at running back, perhaps in the recent history of the game. The passing game has a ton of schemed plays that fit well with what Mayfield can do without stretching him beyond his abilities.

And as defenses stretch him with pressure, Mayfield has gradually improved his performance in the pocket. This is a play he didn't make two years ago with any reliability.

He's also developing a balance of patience to keep his eyes downfield as he flushes outside the pocket but gaining knowledge of when to act fast as a runner because he's not the athlete Russell Wilson is.

Mayfield is also getting better each year with his management of bad situations although he's still inviting a lot of contact even if this situation isn't an example of one he could have prevented easily.

It's also nice to see Mayfield willing to stand tall and take a hit, following through to an open target.

These are all positives but within the realm of what you expect from a game manager, a schemed talent. Unfortunately, the circumstances that offer too small of a sample size for the PFFs of the world to accurately measure or apply appropriate weight are the plays that require a high degree of match-up or individual talent.

This is where I still have lingering concerns with Mayfield's game. This specific instance doesn't carry as much weight due to the game script. But it's a play that, similar to some seen against the better teams he faltered against on what was an easy 2020 schedule as well as the 20201 opener against the Chiefs, that still leaves me pause.

As a Browns' fan, I fear that the sum of the Browns' other parts won't be enough to deliver manageable game scripts for Mayfield against top opponents, especially in the playoffs. If Mayfield is forced to execute these 3-5 plays that require high-level mismatch talent against top teams in difficult situations, I have doubts he can deliver.

And if it takes these games to figure it out, will the Browns view Mayfield as a player who still has ascending talent and reward him a massive second contract? If they lock him up for the rest of the Browns' realistic window of contention and he can't be this difference-maker, it's going to become obvious to fans as the denial wears off in a painful fashion.

This is a team in a perfect window to let Mayfield walk at year's end and acquire a veteran who has shown enough skill to put his team in a position to win in these situations. The worst of these options is Matt Ryan, who has an out with his contract in 2022. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are among the best who may be in their final years with their respective organizations. Wilson would be a perfect fit in Cleveland's offense.

From a fantasy perspective, Mayfield may be a leader in passing efficiency right now, his schedule doesn't appear as easy as 2020. I would not expect a surge in value yet again.

9. The Fantasy Value of Chuba Hubbard's Developing Talent

Hubbard is Tevin Coleman Lite: A speedy back who can hit a crease with intensity and break tackles when he builds this momentum downhill. He's a great fit for a perimeter run game.

Since his senior year, Hubbard has also shown some improvement with his footwork to negotiate backfield penetration.

Like Coleman, he's not much of a tackle breaker without the downhill momentum and his footwork doesn't apply well to every type of run scheme. With Christian McCaffrey expected to miss a least 1-3 weeks with a hamstring injury, Hubbard has the lead role in Carolina's ground game.

However, the lack of versatility with every run scheme and his unrefined attacks of the football as a pass-catcher limit his ceiling. He'll either generate huge plays off 1-2 touches that buoy his fantasy production or he'll earn low-end RB2 or flex production simply on volume rather than efficiency. And if that happens too often or it costs Carolina easy yards, Royce Freeman will earn more opportunities.

Freeman was a good pass-catcher at Oregon and a powerful runner with good feet despite lacking elite explosion. The Carolina offensive line looks a lot better with McCaffrey's greatness so this wasn't one of these handcuff situations of priority. I would avoid either back if have the luxury to do so. For instance, I'd rather hold Sermon or Mitchell and wait to see how the 49ers use them than take a shot on the Carolina ground game for a few weeks.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 3

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger still has the pocket awareness, toughness, and feel of a great quarterback. He lacks the self-awareness of his athletic limitations to make good on these gifts.

This interception was also an egregious lack of awareness that all quarterbacks possess from time to time, but it solidified his standing ahead of Marquise Brown on today's list.

Here's the rest of the list.

  1. Marquise Brown: The Ravens' top deep threat dropped three passes. Two of them were painful and could have prevented a Lions comeback.
  2. Melvin Ingram III: Trying to bully Tyler Boyd with a huge hit in the open field, Boyd bounced off the poor tackle attempt and scored.
  3. Bears' offensive line: In addition to having Garret and Clowney out-play them, they missed multiple assignments that made life even tougher on their rookie quarterback.
  4. Matt Nagy: Every answer to a problem isn't curl-flat and good management is about creating around your most important talents. This seems lost on the coach.
  5. Zach Wilson: I didn't see the games yet, but when NFL.com doesn't list a quarterback for the Jets in the running box score during the game or for several hours afterward, it's a sign.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Tags:QBRBTEWRStrategyBuffalo BillsCarolina PanthersChicago BearsCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsLos Angeles RamsMinnesota VikingsOakland Raiders
footballguys 2024 rookie draft guide

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