Week 10 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.
Who is your favorite buy-low target?
Jameson Williams, Detroit - Buying low is subjective terminology. When acquiring players deemed buy-low candidates, you need to consider various factors. The most important factor is team roster construction and if your team is rebuilding or competing. With that in mind, my favorite buy-low for a rebuilding roster is Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams. Williams hasn’t seen the field yet, and recent reports say he won’t be available till at least December. Now is the perfect time to look to add Williams from a contending team’s roster. Most contenders are losing faith that Williams will come back this year, and the need to win will overtake their value of Williams, who has very little chance of being relevant to their roster this season. For context, Williams was recently traded for Michael Carter II and Tyler Lockett. That's the type of deal I would easily make to land Jameson Williams on my roster.
Jahan Dotson, Washington - Buying low means the player will see a rise in value this season and beyond to return dividends. Jahan Dotson is my buy-low target. He showed in the initial four games of the season that he can play very well at the NFL level. Dotson scored four touchdowns during that span, with 40 or more yards in three of the four games. However, Dotson injured his hamstring and only returned to play a portion of the offensive snaps in week 10. I fully expect Dotson to only improve as he gets healthy and continues to develop in the NFL.
Antonio Gibson, Washington - Buy-low is often difficult to gauge with 100% accuracy, as various factors, including league- and manager-specific biases, play into a player's actual value. But Antonio Gibson stands out as a player that could increase in value as the season progresses. Since Brian Robinson Jr's return to the offense, Gibson has lost just 0.7 points per game. The receiving utilization has been that of a Top 15 back, as he's pacing for nearly 70 targets. He's efficient with his touches, and public perception has yet to catch on that he's inside the Top 20 and trending upward.
Russell Wilson, Denver - Wilson is a strong historical performer. The start of his season has been bad and dropped him to the lowest cost he has been in his career. I do not think Wilson has fallen completely off the ledge. I'll take the huge discount and bet on a rebound over the next 18 months.
David Njoku, Cleveland - I am trying to grab some shares of David Njoku before he comes back from injury. He had a target share of over 20% when healthy this season, which is a strong piece of the pie considering how few tight ends are getting consistent volume. We could also see that the overall passing game pie improves substantially when Deshaun Watson returns. If Njoku emerges as one of Watson’s top two targets, he has a chance to move up the dynasty rankings.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland - Peoples-Jones has averaged 74 yards per game since Week 4, a season-long pace of 1,250 yards. Yet he barely qualifies as a WR3 during that span. A lack of touchdowns will do that. Just two touchdowns during that stretch would move Peoples-Jones firmly into WR2 territory. With Peoples-Jones’s ability to attack vertically and the impending return of Deshaun Watson, the points will come. A great target.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland - Watson is going to be playing in the NFL in week 13. In regards to him playing as a quarterback, he's very good. This equates to many points in fantasy football and helps teams win. Some of his owners might be frustrated by another tough season, and some might mix in their feelings about him off the field. Either way, Watson is a top-10 dynasty quarterback, and now would be the time to talk to owners before they recognize he'll be playing soon.
Zach Wilson, NY Jets - While the second-year quarterback has flashed moments of greatness throughout his first year and a half, it's not unrealistic to believe the Jets may look for an upgrade at the position this offseason. Even if they don't, there's not enough evidence to suggest Wilson will ever be a good fantasy football asset. His output ranks him as the QB32 in points per game. He currently sits inside the Top 20 at the quarterback position in dynasty rankings, but it looks like he should be outside the Top 24.
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers - Herbert was in the top trio in Superflex Dynasty all offseason but has fallen behind Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen in production this season. Herbert is still an elite performer but has been hurt by the extended absence of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers have stayed afloat thus far this season, and Herbert has the type of profile that can be elite to close the season. If his cost has slid, Herbert is a prime dynasty target.
Justin Fields, Chicago - Fields moves up to QB7 in my rankings. His recent play has done two things. First, proven the thesis that he has massive fantasy upside as a runner, on par with elite running quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Second, he has done more than enough to provide confidence that the Bears are going to choose to build around him over the next few years as opposed to looking for a potential replacement.
Geno Smith, Seattle - Smith moves up to QB16. The rise of Smith feels unprecedented. It has been hard to buy into the idea that a 32-year-old career backup could truly emerge as a franchise quarterback. However, as Smith keeps stacking great performances (eight games this season with a QB rating over 100), it feels more and more concrete. At this point, you have to be very open to the possibility that Smith can be a fantasy factor for at least the next few seasons.
Carson Wentz, Washington - Wentz was a very early fantasy hit in 2022. Early as in the first two weeks. Following Week 2, Wentz had seven touchdown passes, 650 passing yards, and sat as QB4. And then the descent. Four consecutive losses put Washington at 1-4 until he finally pulled out of the tailspin, beating Chicago in a game where he was hurt and remained out. In his stead, Taylor Heinicke has righted the ship, winning three of four starts, knocking off undefeated Philadelphia, and putting Washington on the verge of the playoffs. Whispers around the team have Heinicke retaining the job when Wentz returns. Wentz will be 30 at the end of this season and has potentially seen his third team move on from him in the last three years. He was previously ranked among the starting quarterbacks and had a potential Superflex value, but a long-term backup quarterback in a dynasty becomes a challenging asset to manage. That is where Wentz sits.
Dak Prescott, Dallas - With the emergence of Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields, the odd man out seems to be Dak Prescott. Prescott has slowly fallen down the dynasty ranks in fantasy football throughout the season. Instead of looking like a top-seven dynasty quarterback Prescott is gradually slipping to the back end of a top-12 dynasty quarterback. He just hasn’t produced enough to be considered a top-end dynasty quarterback in the format, and this could be his new reality as a fantasy asset. As he drops, his value is one to note, and he could become a top buy-low candidate.
Running Back Movement
Jeff Wilson, Miami - A new scene means new opportunity, and while Mike McDaniel was part of the Shanahan teams that rotated running backs often, it's clear that Wilson is his favorite. Wilson has been tremendous when given the opportunity this season, averaging 15.3 points per game when staying on the field for at least 49% of snaps. It seems more likely that the Dolphins will keep him than the 49ers would, and he's the perfect fit for McDaniel's rushing attack. At 27 years old, he shouldn't reside inside the Top 36, but moving him up seems like a good strategy moving forward.
D'Onta Foreman, Carolina - The 2022 season is the second consecutive year that D'Onta Foreman has a stretch of football where he looks like a top-ten talent at the running back position. Over the last four weeks, he ranks inside the Top Ten for fantasy, and his nuanced running style has led to efficiency and a ton of success on the ground. Foreman is playing some of his best football, and while the odds that he will get a meaningful role following this season are low, he looks like one of the best injury-replacement backs in the entire NFL. His ranking should reflect that upside.
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