Hands, Eyes, and Guts: The WR Trinity for Fantasy Performance

Hands and how well a wide receiver uses them are differentiating factors in WR fantasy performance. This was the subject of last week's Gut Check:

• Defining good hands technique. 
• Using the RSP's process-driven analytics to correlate good hands technique with fantasy value.
• Placing realistic fantasy ceilings on WRs based on these correlations. 

We learned that a technically sound attack of the football is a significant factor that differentiates performance among fantasy options at the WR position. 

This week's Gut Check examines how a receiver's hands, eyes, and guts -- pass tracking, winning against tight coverage, and winning against significant contact -- correlate to fantasy production. I've also combined last week's data with this week's to create a list to help you value receivers for your drafts. 

Here's last week's data examining the quality of every wideout's receiving technique who ranked among the top 75 options each year for the past six seasons. The tiers are based on 12-team PPR formats. I used 15 players for WR6s because the bottom tier usually consists of a rotating cast of reserves and free agents. 

By the way, if you're wondering about the rates for the WR4-WR6 tiers in any of the data shared below, read last week's article. 

Attack: Good Hands and Fantasy Production 2018-2023

Lapses are technical errors with hands that happen situationally and/or infrequently in a receiver's sample. Serial issues are technical errors that occur in multiple situations and/or with a significant frequency in the player's sample.

How well a receiver attacks the football with those good hands techniques correlates to the player's ceiling of potential as a fantasy option. It has the highest correlation to fantasy value among the four pass-catching traits and skills we're examining. 

Still, tracking, winning against tight coverage, and winning against contact are worth examining because they will help us bust myths about what good hands mean in the NFL. 

Hands and Eyes Part I:  Tracking the Football

Sammie Coates was an elite athlete. While watching Coates participate in 7-on-7 scrimmages during Senior Bowl practices, I received a text from a high-level consultant to multiple GMs regarding RFID tracking, scouting, and analytics. He was with coaches in one of the stadium boxes and spotted me taking notes at ground level. 

If only someone would just have Coates stand with his back to them as they throw a ball over his head and ask him to track it into his hands. It would take 3-5 minutes to see that Coates' ceiling is a lot lower than many think. 

It's one of my favorite stories because it was a great lesson and helped me create an effective methodology to evaluate pass tracking. Here are the criteria I use in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) to measure pass tracking. 

• Does the WR effectively track the ball into his hands when it arrives over his shoulder? 
• Does the WR effectively track the ball into his hands when it arrives over his head? 
• Does the WR frame his hands in the appropriate position relative to the target's trajectory?
• Does the WR keep his feet on the ground at the catch point and only leave them when necessary?
• Does the WR execute his attack with late hands -- not tipping off the defender in tight coverage?

Framing the hands to the correct position, keeping the feet on the ground, and tracking over the shoulder are the most fundamental aspects of effective pass tracking. Most NFL prospects should exhibit these tracking skills if they want a reasonable chance of success as a pro. The other two separate the best from the rest.

Tracking: Good Hands and Fantasy Production 2018-2023

Compared to a receiver's Attack Techniques, Tracking doesn't generate as massive of a difference between the tiers. Among fantasy assets at the position--starters and reserves--the rate of lapses and serial flaws with tracking the football is significantly lower than what we saw with Attack Techniques. 

It means effective tracking is a fundamental skill for a receiver to possess good hands in the NFL. If a receiver has serial flaws with pass tracking it's a lot less likely he'll deliver fantasy value, much stick long-term on an NFL's WR depth chart without great special teams acumen. 

Quentin Johnston comes to mind as a prospect whose tracking was a notable issue at TCU and last year in L.A. His value will be capped if he can't improve in this area -- and from my 20 years of scouting for the RSP, it's difficult to improve one's tracking once at this level of the game. To get the most from Johnston, they may have to limit their expectations and limit Johnston's role to specific types of routes. 

More on Johnston and other notable players later. 

Hands and Eyes Part II:  Defeating Tight Coverage

The RSP's method for evaluating a receiver's hands against tight coverage is simple: If the defender is less than arm's length from the receiver as the ball arrives, the coverage is tight enough for the defender to impact the outcome of the target. 

The fundamental skills a receiver needs to win the ball against tight coverage are hand-eye coordination and concentration. There's no doubt that Tracking is a factor--you could make the argument that catching versus tight coverage is a subset of tracking. 

Defeating Tight Coverage: Good Hands and Fantasy Production 2018-2023

Compared to a receiver's Attack Techniques, Defeating Tight Coverage has execution rates similar to Tracking -- they don't generate as massive of a difference between the tiers. Among fantasy assets at the position--starters and reserves--the rate of lapses and serial flaws with defeating tight coverage is significantly lower than what we saw with Attack Techniques. 

Defeating Tight Coverage is also a fundamental skill for a receiver to possess good hands in the NFL. If a receiver has serial flaws defeating tight coverage, it's a lot less likely he'll deliver fantasy value, much stick long-term on an NFL's WR depth chart without great special teams acumen.

A receiver with these flaws is a liability against tight man-to-man coverage. It also makes him a liability against many zone looks because NFL defenders are much better at earning a position where they can break on the ball and skilled at anticipating where the ball is heading.

Guts (and Hands):  Winning Versus Contact

The RSP evaluates Winning Versus Contact with three points of criteria: 

• Catches versus contact to the receiver's back or side. 
• Catches versus contact to the receiver's chest. 
• Catches versus hard shots. 

The RSP defines contact in this context as a defender swatting, wrapping, or shoving the receiver during the act of the catch. A hard shot is a hit with significant momentum heading into the collision.

Of the three facets of a receiver's hands we're introducing this week, the data is the most fascinating. 

Winning Versus Contact: Good Hands and Fantasy Production 2018-2023

Compared to a receiver's Attack Techniques, Winning Versus Contact has execution rates similar to Tracking and Defeating Tight Coverage -- overall, they don't generate as massive of a difference between the tiers, although there is a notable difference I'll discuss in a moment. 

Among fantasy assets at the position--starters and reserves--the rate of lapses and serial flaws with defeating tight coverage is significantly lower than what we saw with Attack Techniques. 

Winning Versus Contact is not a fundamental skill for a receiver to possess good hands in the NFL -- it's an advanced skill. Even the top receivers in the NFL drop the ball frequently against contact. 

It may seem surprising that the Elite Tier (Top 3) has the highest rate of lapses and serial flaws in this facet of their hands. It also makes sense when considering that primary receivers earn the highest volume of targets, face the most difficult defenders, and likely earn the highest volume of difficult targets that place them in harm's way. 

The Elite Tier is a subset of the WR1 Tier and the WR1s as a whole have the highest rate of success and the differences among WR1, WR2, and WR3 are a little more uniform.  

The average football fan screams He should've caught that! at the television when a top receiver drops a target against contact. For years, Joe Theisman led the charge on a national level as an ESPN color analyst that if the ball hits the receiver's hands, the receiver should make the catch. 

For the most part, this is true when studying the differences between WR1s and the other starters or rotating contributors in a lineup. For elite options who earn more trust targets and face brackets and double coverage more often, we may need to be more understanding.

Good Hands, Eyes, and Guts: Fantasy Insights

What does this all mean? How does this help us? 

If you are an RSP subscriber, you can use these reports -- at least early in the player's career -- to forecast their likely ceiling of value if they earn early playing time.

Players do develop, so it's important to note when they do. As they develop, you can also update your notes on these players with the help of my rankings commentary at Footballguys, articles that I write during the season, or others' work if they define good hands in a similar way as I do. 

Guidelines I'd recommend for applying good hands to fantasy rankings and draft prep: 

• Quality of attack technique has more value than tracking, defeating tight coverage, or defeating contact.
• It's safest to forecast elite production only from receivers with no lapses or serial flaws with his attack. 
• If a WR1 candidate has lapses with his attack, he's a safer bet if he's earned a WR1 value before. 
• WR2s rarely have serial flaws with their attack. Cap him at WR3 unless he has been a WR2 before.
• WR3s with serial flaws with attack should be capped at the bottom of that tier.
• WRs with serial flaws in multiple hands categories should be capped, at best, as a WR4. 
• If a WR has serial flaws with tracking, his ceiling should be a WR4 until he proves otherwise.
• The potential for elite volume, as well as quality of attack technique, should dictate a WR1's potential to become an elite producer more than tracking or performance against tight coverage or contact. 

2024 Good Hands List

The list below contains active players who have delivered top-75 fantasy production at the position at least once since 2018. I've ordered the four Good Hands Categories in order of importance.

A WR's Attack is significantly more valuable than the other three. Still, if a player's Tracking has serial flaws, it's a fundamental technique issue, and it's recommended that you cap their value as a fantasy WR4 in a 12-team format, at best. 

Any category where I have an asterisk (*) next to the issue means that the player has improved his skills in this area at least one category higher. 

I like to see 1-2 seasons of relevant volume before adding an asterisk to a player entering the league with serial flaws in a category. This is why you'll see Puka Nacua without an asterisk -- I want to see more volume with specific targets. 

Keep in mind that players who had lapses early in their career and improved can regress.

The commentary is sparse. My rankings are the best source for commentary.

The 2024 Hands List

The Elite Tier of Fantasy Wide Receivers Shortcomings

Elite Candidates: Strong Fantasy WR1s Shortcomings

Fantasy WR1/Strong WR2s Shortcomings

^ Michael Thomas commentary: Health is an issue, but even between injuries has balled out as a WR1.

Solid Fantasy WR2s Shortcomings

^ Garrett Wilson comment: Has an elite upside with Rodgers, but Rodgers will test him with difficult scenarios.
^^ Terry McLaurin comment: The exception that proves the rule. Perennial WR2.

Potential Fantasy WR3s Shortcomings

Potential Fantasy WR4s Shortcomings

^ Kendrick Bourne comment: Injury rehab and the QB situation depressing his value this year.
^^ Noah Brown comment: Has a WR2 ceiling if injuries strike. 

As always...good luck.

Follow @MattWaldman