Week 14 may be the most critical week of the entire NFL regular season. NFL.com did a great job of emphasizing the playoff leverage involved, noting many of the probability swings based upon wins or losses are usually reserved for Week 17.
Consider:
- Jacksonville (95% odds of playoffs with a win / 67% with a loss) vs. Indianapolis (86% / 55%)
- Houston (85% / 49%) at. Kansas City (49% / 11%)
- Baltimore (84% / 38%) vs. Pittsburgh (62% / 15%)
The league is incredibly bunched up, especially relative to last season. At this point in 2024, the Top 3 teams in both conferences were a combined 66-12, for an 85% win rate. This year, those same positions are 56-17, for a 76% win rate. 2024 had 17 teams at .500 or better, while 2025 has 20.
Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis illustrates the leverage involved this week. The winner will be in a strong position for the AFC #3 seed, with two games to spare over the AFC North leader. The loser will fall outside of the playoff picture, contingent on Buffalo and the Chargers.
The most significant story is in Kansas City. A win keeps the Chiefs alive, though still less than a 50% chance to make the postseason. A loss all but mathematically eliminates them. They would be on the wrong side of the tiebreaker against Buffalo, Jacksonville, Houston, Denver, and the LA Chargers. The Chiefs' 6-6 record is the most shocking development of the season, but the most significant red flag is the number of tiebreakers they end up losing.
The league has never felt more wide open, and young quarterbacks like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are sitting atop their divisions, while Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow are fighting for their postseason lives, suggesting we may be witnessing a changing of the guard.
Thirteen games stand on the schedule; let’s get a fix.
Number Watch
De'Von Achane - 120 Rushing Yards
Achane has a three-game streak of 120+ rushing yards, tying him with multiple players for the 22nd-longest streak in NFL history. Chris Johnson, Eric Dickerson, and Earl Campbell have tied for the longest streak with six games.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City - 7 Receptions, 176 Receiving Yards
Kelce is 11th in career receptions at 1,063. He needs seven catches to tie Reggie Wayne for 10th. Longer term, Kelce is 39 receptions away from Marvin Harrison Jr. for the fifth most.
He is 22nd in career yards with 12,870. He needs 176 to pass Jason Witten and move into second on the career tight end yards list. Tony Gonzalez is first with 15,127.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland - 238 Rushing Yards, 4 Rushing Touchdowns
Judkins is fifth in rushing yards by a Browns rookie at 758. The Top 4 in team history: Nick Chubb (996), Trent Richardson (950), Jim Brown (942), and William Green (887).
Judkins has seven rushing touchdowns, tied with Travis Prentice and Ron Johnson for the fifth most in team history. The Top 4: Trent Richardson (11), Jim Brown (9), Nick Chubb (8), Isaiah Crowell (8).
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis - 10 Receptions
Warren has 58 catches, trailing Josh Downs' franchise rookie record by ten. He has the ninth-most receptions by a rookie tight end. He needs 28 to reach Sam LaPorta for the second most. Brock Bowers is well ahead with 112.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas - 6 Receptions, 1 Touchdown
Jeanty broke the Raiders team record for rookie running back receptions. At 43 on the season, he needs six to crack the top three for any Raiders rookie. The Top 3: Brock Bowers (112), Amari Cooper (72), Hunter Renfrow (49).
Jeanty is tied with J.D. Smith for the second-most touchdowns by a rookie in Raiders team history. Allen has the team record, with 14.
Breece Hall, NY Jets - 156 Rushing Yards
Hall needs 156 rushing yards to hit 1,000 for the first time. With 3,167, he is 12th in Jets team history. He needs 281 to pass Adrian Murrell and move into the Top 10 in team history.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia - 44 Rushing Yards
Barkley needs 44 more yards to become the 55th player with 8,000 in his career.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati - 100 Scrimmage Yards, 13 Receptions
Brown set a Bengals franchise record with 100+ scrimmage yards in six straight games. He has the longest active streak in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey had a seven-game streak that ended in Week 6, while Bijan Robinson had a six-game streak that ended in Week 5. Marcus Allen has the NFL record, with 17 games.
Wth 48 receptions, Brown needs 13 catches to set a new Bengals record for running backs. Joe Mixon holds the current record of 60.
Rico Dowdle, Carolina - 167 Scrimmage Yards, 2 Touchdowns
Dowdle has already unlocked $ 1.75 million in multiple incentives. He has two more thresholds at 1,350 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. He needs 167 scrimmage yards to earn $1 million, and two touchdowns will earn $ 250,000
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City - 121 Scrimmage Yards
Hunt has 629 scrimmage yards. He has multiple bonuses in his contract and will earn $25,000 at 750 yards. The following are non-cumulative, meaning he only gets the highest earned: 905 scrimmage yards for $125,000 / 1,000 for $375,000 / 1,250 for $625,000.
Javonte Williams, Dallas - 100 Scrimmage Yards, 1 Touchdown
Williams already played on Thursday Night. He is closing in on significant contract incentives. At 1,150 scrimmage yards, he needs 100 more yards to unlock $250,000. He has 11 touchdowns; his next touchdown will unlock another $250,000 incentive.
Mason Taylor, NY Jets - 9 Receptions, 247 Receiving Yards
With 39 receptions and 318 yards, Taylor is approaching the Jets franchise records for rookie tight end receiving. Dusin Keller holds the record for receptions, with 48, while Pete Lammons has the yardage mark at 565.
Gunnar Helm, Tennessee - 1 Reception, 160 Receiving Yards
Helm needs one catch to tie Bo Scaife’s rookie team record for a tight end of 39. Chig Okonkwo holds the yardage mark for a rookie Titans tight end at 450; Helm needs 160.
Cameron Ward, Tennessee - 467 Passing Yards
Ward lands on the number countdown list. His 2,351 passing yards are the second most by a Titans rookie. Marcus Mariota holds the team rookie record with 2,818.
David Njoku, Cleveland - 3 Receptions
Njoku is three catches from tying Dante Lavelli for the second most in Browns history at 386. Ozzie Newsome holds the team record with 662.