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As summer ramps up, and the NBA Finals grab headlines, we’re staying laser-focused on the grind that never stops: fantasy football prep. Today’s lineup brings the kind of insight that helps you win long before Week 1.
​The Fantasy Notebook​ ​Bob Harris is back with the kind of notes, nuggets, and no-nonsense observations that longtime Footballguys know and trust. He looks at a Texans reset, Kyler Murray, Chargers timeshare, and more.
And of course, Cecil Lammey brings the News and Notes to keep you in the loop and ahead of your league.
Whether you’re on a beach, a back porch, or just hiding from another group chat debate, we’re glad you’re here with us.
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Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
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🗳️ POLL: Will Saquon Barkley survive the "Curse of 370" and deliver RB3 value?
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud (pectoral) has not been throwing recently because of a tight pectoral muscle, but the injury is believed to be minor, according to sources.
Our view: This is not a concern in early June, but let's put a pin in this story and come back to it if the problem persists in training camp. Texans OC Nick Caley said he had "no concerns whatsoever" about Stroud not throwing at voluntary workouts this week. With the utmost trust from Caley and his teammates in 2025, Stroud is perhaps set for a breakout season.
Updating previous reports, Cleveland Brown rookie QBs Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel are battling for the reserve pecking order spots, according to The Athletic's Zac Jackson, who added there's 'almost no scenario' in which either would win the starting job in the offseason. As previous reported, QB Joe Flacco is expected to open the season as the starter.
Our view: The Browns quarterback situation is a mess right now...and likely for the whole 2025 season. Joe Flacco is there as the likely starter Week 1, but the former elite veteran is not the player he used to be and has a limited ceiling. Kenny Pickett, a former first-round pick, wants to prove himself now on his third team in three years. Gabriel is small and lacks tools as a passer, and Sanders has the tools but is a late-round pick who won't have many opportunities early on in this competition. Sanders may be the best quarterback on the roster, but there's a chance he doesn't make the 53-man roster...unless the Browns carry four quarterbacks...and -oh yeah- Deshaun Watson.
The Curse of 370: Are Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty Next?
By Gary Davenport - Exclusive to Footballguys
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For the most part, curses are a load of bunk.
Lord Carnarvon didn't die because he financed the expedition that located Tutankhamun's tomb, although grave-robbing is still pretty messed up. Pope Clement V didn't die because of the Curse of the Knights Templar, although what they did to Jacques de Molay was (again) pretty messed up. The Hope Diamond had a lot less to do with Prince Ivan Kanitovski getting dead than Russian revolutionaries with guns.
And don't even get me started on the Madden Curse. That was internet idiocy at its finest. Peyton Hillis didn't have a bad 2011 season because he appeared on the cover of a video game. A contract dispute, a couple of injuries, and a so-so player regressing to the mean were far more likely causes. Never mind that no one has mentioned the curse in years after Patrick Mahomes II supposedly broke it in 2019.
However, in fantasy football, there actually is a curse--one that has stalked the landscape for years. It has claimed any number of victims. Ruined scores of seasons. And spared very few.
It is The Curse of 370. And Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is squarely in its crosshairs.
What is The Curse of 370?
The Curse of 370 was discovered by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders all the way back in 2004 while examining the heavy workloads Ricky Williams had racked up in 2002 and 2003. After 383 carries in 2002, Williams carried the ball 392 times the following year. His yards per carry fell by well over a yard, and his fantasy production in PPR leagues dropped by just under 24 percent.
That led Schatz to go back and look at every 370-carry back and examine their production the following season. He arrived at this conclusion.
"These backs basically fall into three categories," Schatz wrote. "Guys who got injured the next year, guys who were never as good again, and guys who are Eric Dickerson."
There have been 30 running backs since 1980 who have carried the ball over 370 times in the regular season. Of that group, one (Eric Dickerson in 1984--when he set the single-season rushing record) improved on his production from the previous season. A dozen (that's 40 percent for the math-averse) saw their production drop by over half. The average decrease in production topped 40 percent.
If that's not gross enough, over two-thirds of those 370-carry backs missed time the following year. Eight sat out at least six games, inclu ding the only 370-carry back of the past decade--Derrick Henry in 2020.
The Curse of 370 Evolves
NFL offenses have evolved in recent years. The days of running backs amassing more than 370 carries in a season are all but gone. (Henry is the lone instance in the last 10 years.) But the Curse of 370 has evolved right along with it, like bacteria becoming resistant to antibiotics.
Now, if a back records more than 370 total touches in a campaign, odds are good that the following season will be letdown-city.
Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, two (Clinton Portis in 2008 and Ray Rice in 2011) gained more yardage the following year. An equal number (Rice and Adrian Peterson in 2009) saw an increase in PPR points.
That's eight percent who increased their production. A few others saw minimal decreases. Fantasy managers weren't pleased with that, but they didn't want to play in traffic.
For the vast majority, though? Frogger time. The bottom fell out. Missed games. Lost seasons. Precipitous drops in both yardage gained and fantasy points amassed. Doom. Despair. The feeling of being a Browns fan.
Los Angeles Rams fourth-round draft choice RB Jarquez Hunter signed a four-year contract with the Rams Friday, May 30. Financial terms were not disclosed.
Our view: Watching draft coverage behind the scenes with the Rams, it was clear that HC Sean McVay LOVES Hunter. It could be something...and it could be nothing. Hunter has to show off his skill in training camp and the preseason to earn the backup job behind Kyren Williams in 2025 (Blake Corum is his main competition for that spot). However, he's got a similar skill set to Williams and could be seen as an eventual starter.
Cleveland Browns RB Jerome Ford was the first running back on the field during drills Wednesday, May 28.
Our view: Ford is the veteran of the group, but rookie second-round pick Quinshon Judkins should emerge as the lead back for the Browns this year. In early May, Ford reworked his contract and likely has a spot locked up on the 53-man roster. Judkins has plenty of power and speed to his game, but Ford provides a nice change-of-pace option. We'll see how the room shapes up in training camp.
New York Giants WR Zach Pascal 'had a strong practice' Friday, May 30, catching a pair of touchdowns from QB Russell Wilson, according to John Schmeelk of Giants.com.
Our view: Pascal has the physical talent to stand out, especially in offseason practices, and he's clearly developing chemistry with Wilson (who is likely the Giants starting QB to open the season). He had back-to-back seasons with 600-plus yards receiving in 2019 and 2020 with the Colts, but has less than 600 yards receiving over the last four seasons combined as he's bounced around to teams like the Eagles and the Cardinals. Pascal is veteran depth for the Giants, and he's likely competing for the no.5 spot on the depth chart.
Miami Dolphins CB Cam Smith (leg) suffered an apparent leg injury during practice Wednesday, May 28.
Our view: A second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Smith has played 21 games in two pro seasons (with zero starts). He's been banged up quite a bit so far in his young pro career, but he's an athletic (and sometimes grabby) corner who doesn't back down from a challenge. The physical talent has always been there with Smith, but he needs to get healthy and stay healthy to further prove himself as a pro player (and possible starter).
Updating a previous report, Miami Dolphins LB Jaelan Phillips (knee) did not participate in team drills during practice Wednesday, May 28.
Our view: Phillips is a talented, but oft-injured player so the team should exercise caution during offseason workouts. A knee injury in the first month of the season ended his 2024 campaign, and he suffered an Achilles' injury late in the 2023 season. The former first-round pick has not played a full season since 2022, and this year is the final year of his rookie contract.
Green Bay Packers team president/CEO Mark Murphy will officially retire July 25, the day of the Packers' annual shareholders' meeting at Lambeau Field, since he will have reached the organization's mandatory retirement age of 70 by then. Team leadership will then transfer to chief operating officer Ed Policy, who was chosen as Murphy's replacement in June 2024.
Our view: The mandatory retirement age of 70 for Murphy is on his birthday of July 13th. He has served as CEO and president of the Packers since Jan. 28, 2008. In that time, the Packers have consistently been one of the best teams in the NFL. They are a well-run organization, and that starts at the top with guys like Murphy. "I look forward to Ed taking over leadership of the Packers. He's been a tremendous asset to the organization and I'm confident he will be an excellent steward in the role," Murphy said in a press release.
The Minnesota Vikings promoted Ryan Grigson and Demitrius Washington to assistant general manager roles Friday, May 30, according to multiple sources.
Our view: Grigson was getting some interest as a potential GM candidate for the Jets earlier this year. He was previously a GM for the Colts (2012-2016), where he oversaw three 11-win seasons in his five-year tenure. If things continue to go well in Minnesota, some franchise may want Grigson to run their team.
The Baltimore Ravens promoted national scout Bobby Vega to senior personnel executive Friday, May 30.
Our view: Ravens GM Eric DeCosta announced eight promotions and one new hire within the football operations department Friday, including several in scouting. The Ravens are among the best of the best in terms of front office talent. With a proven eye for talent, Vega is on track to one day be a general manager in this league.
Thanks for making us part of your weekend. Whether you’re catching up on ADP trends, tinkering with trade ideas, or just sneaking in some quiet time before the chaos of summer kicks in.
And with Father’s Day coming up, here’s to all the dads, father figures, and fantasy commissioners out there holding it down. We see you.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend. We’ll see you tomorrow with the update.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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We Help You Win More At Fantasy Football
We help you win more at Fantasy Football. Join 700,000+ others who are dominating their fantasy football leagues on our 100% FREE Daily Update newsletter