Welcome to Week 5 of the 2020 Footballguys' Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate players who could crash the starter tier of fantasy rankings in the coming weeks, advice on injury-ridden depth charts, the sustainability of certain breakout performers from Week 4, and the continued debate on Clyde Edwards-Helaire's fantasy value.
- Potential Fantasy Party Crashers
- Fantasy Triage
- Breakout? Or, Lucky Break?
- Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire Worth His Pre-Draft Buzz?
Let's roll...
Potential Fantasy Party Crashers
Matt Waldman: These questions are for 12-team, PPR formats that start 1 QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1 TE, and 1 non-QB flex.
- Name a quarterback outside the top 15 who will finish as a fantasy QB1.
- Name a running back outside the top 36 who will finish as at least an RB2.
- Name a wide receiver outside the top 48 who will finish as at least a WR3.
- Name a tight end outside the top 15 who will finish at least as a top TE1.
Jeff Pasquino: The Rams' offense is designed to be pass-first, and Jared Goff has been playing at a high level so far this season. Goff is surrounded by strong receivers (Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp), tight ends (Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett) and tailbacks that can catch (Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson), so there is plenty of support for Goff. The Rams have faced several teams so far that are weak against the run (Cowboys, Giants) or have run away from the opposition (Eagles). With six NFC West games yet to play and several favorable matchups to go to boost passing numbers (AFC West, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami) there is plenty of room for Goff to climb up the fantasy stats ladder into the Top 12 at quarterback the rest of the way..
Right now, I see three reasonable candidates for a RB presently outside of the Top 36 that can crack the Top 24 for the season: Chase Edmonds (RB37), Leonard Fournette (RB40) and J.K. Dobbins (RB41). Of those three, I will take Edmonds, as he seems to be gaining on Kenyan Drake for both production and touches in Arizona. Drake has had 20 touches just once all season, with just 13 in Week 4, while Edmonds had 10 and a score against Carolina. With a very favorable matchup against the Jets on the horizon, Edmonds looks like the back to get if you can.
I think it would be cheating to mention Kenny Golladay or Chris Godwin given they only have two games each, but if you can get them in a trade, do it. My choice is Marquise Brown for the Ravens, as he has had at least six targets every game so far, but has not found the end zone yet. He was just short of scoring last week against Washington (down at the one-yard line), so those numbers will come up, especially once teams start doubling the very effective Mark Andrews.
This one has to go to Zach Ertz, right? He's just outside the Top 15 now and his yards per catch is under eight - way below his career average in the 10-11 range. Combine that with just one touchdown and Philadelphia's lack of quality wide receivers (plus the injury to Dallas Goedert) and Ertz seems destined to move back into the Top 12 by the end of the season.
Jason Wood: There are three leading choices: Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, and Justin Herbert. All three are top-15 quarterbacks on a per-game basis currently. Since my colleague mapped out the case for Newton (which I agree with and see below), I'll focus on Herbert, instead. Admittedly, after watching Hard Knocks, I fell for the notion Tyrod Taylor would be the Chargers key leader and Herbert would need most of the season to watch from the sidelines. Taylor's chest injury forced the Chargers' hand, and it may have been the best thing possible. Herbert has been terrific, in spite of dealing with a less-than-full cast of receivers and running backs. Herbert is QB9 on a per-game basis, which is remarkable considering he's only played three games.
J.K. Dobbins it the choice. The Ravens are playing well, but the offense hasn't been the fantasy bonanza most expected on draft day. That will normalize, and the key players will start paying big dividends. Dobbins isn't going to get a workhorse role without injuries to Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, but he could earn the lead role (switching places with Ingram) simply because of underlying talent and because the team wants to hand over the baton knowing Ingram's future with the team is limited, while Dobbins will be the No. 1 in 2021 and beyond.
Jamison Crowder (WR42) doesn't qualify, but I needed to shout him out because he's WR3 on a per-game basis -- behind only Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins. I'll throw Brandon Aiyuk into the mix. The 49ers have been a plug-and-play offense so far, with Kittle, Mostert, Garoppolo, and Aiyuk missing games. But Aiyuk's snap count and role are increasing, and there's no one on the receiver depth chart who poses a threat to the No. 1 role eventually.
I'm with Jeff on the Ertz pick. As I scan the YTD tight end stats, there aren't many other tight ends currently outside the Top 15 who have a credible path to regular fantasy value, absent injury. Ertz would've shown positive regression back into the Top 10 regardless of the Eagles situation, but their injury deluge makes it a foregone conclusion. Ertz should be as targeted as any tight end not named George Kittle over the last three months.
Drew Davenport: Cam Newton is easily my favorite pick for a quarterback who could leap up into QB1 territory. Week 3 showed us that there will be weeks that the running game is working and Newton won't score as much as he did the first two weeks, but his rushing floor is so rock solid that it's hard to see how he won't continue to produce going forward.
Especially in leagues with 4 points per passing touchdown, Newton's expectation should be another half dozen scores on the ground, and that kind of bonus provides quite an edge. My dark horse in this category is Teddy Bridgewater. He sits at 14th in passing attempts, but 6th in passing yards, and 10th in the league with 8.1 yards per attempt. The addition of Robby Anderson and the porous Panthers defense is going to continue to give Bridgewater scoring opportunities. He's only converted his throws to scores at a 2.8 percent clip so far, so if this swings back toward the league average, he'll get a nice boost, possibly into the Top 12.
At running back I am going with Joshua Kelley. If he can stop putting the ball on the ground, he's going to have an expanded role with Austin Ekeler's injury, and he's already proven to be the guy they go with near the goal line. With Ekeler gone Kelley should be able to see a few more targets each game, and looks like a lock for 20 touches a contest. If Justin Herbert and the offense continue to move the ball, Kelley will likely dominate the backfield touches 2 to 1 over Justin Jackson, and this makes him a good bet to finish as an RB2..
At wide receiver it's cheating a bit to take Kenny Golladay or Julio Jones as both have been hurt, but it's worth noting they are both outside the top 48 at this point. However, my choice is going to be Brandon Aiyuk. He came back in Week 3 from his injury and had a slow start, but in the last two games he's had 5.5 opportunities per game and seen 12 targets.
As with all 49er wide receivers he's had a carry in each game as well. Although his two touchdowns on those two carries isn't sustainable, his situation is going to be very much like Deebo Samuel's last year. He may be boom/bust, but he'll get the chance to produce when he gets a more competent quarterback coming back in a week or two. I like his chances to push into WR3 territory.
At tight end I think Zach Ertz is an easy answer. The Eagles have help at wide receiver coming back in the next month to make the offense stronger and free up Ertz. But there are two other guys I like as well.
Jordan Akins has taken over as the TE1 for Houston, and despite a weak outing in Week 3, he had 7 PPR points before getting a concussion in Week 4, and had strong outings in the first two weeks. He should be in contention to be a TE1 by year's end. The final guy I like is Evan Engram. His target share is a healthy 20%, but the Giants had a rough month to start the year against four stout defenses. The schedule lightens up considerably now and this should help the offense move the ball. Engram's targets say good things are coming and his current TE22 rank should be a memory by November.
Jordan McNamara: Jared Goff is outside the top 15 at present with a good chance of finishing in the top 12. The offense is deep with talent at skill positions while Goff has seen a rebound in touchdown rate from a down 2019 season. Fortunately, he is just outside the top 15 so he doesn't have far to go.
For running backs, we could look back after week 17 and find a handful of top 24 seasonal finishers were outside the top 36 after week four. Keeping one injury away backup running backs on the back of your roster will give you these opportunities. At present, the easiest bet is Joshua Kelley who is going to step into a lead role for the Chargers with Austin Ekeler out for an extended period of time. Kelley has played well so far and has the opportunity to establish himself as a fantasy starter without Ekeler in the lineup.
It feels like cheating to take Julio Jones, Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay, but I think both could close the gap quickly and finish as top 24 seasonal finishers if healthy. The injury to Jones on Monday night is a critical monitor situation going forward. A dark horse candidate would be Marvin Jones.
At tight end, Rob Gronkowski has a big opportunity with O.J. Howard out for the season and injuries throughout the wide receiving corps. Gronkowski's snap share is up over the beginning of the season, so the targets should come.
Jeff Haseley: Newton is a popular choice for this and he should be. New England functions much better with him under center, plus we know that he is capable of taking a game over if need be. His production jumps up another notch in contested games and San Francisco, Buffalo, and Baltimore are coming in three of the next four games after their Week 6 bye. Another on my radar to finish inside the top 15 is Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have already had their bye week and Roethlisberger has capable receivers who can get the job done. In order for him to rise up the ranks, he will need to have high yardage and scores because his mobile game won't take him there. A few three-touchdown games with 300 yards should do the trick.
Take your pick, J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards, and you can even throw in Mark Ingram to the mix as well. No one Ravens back has exceeded 27 snaps in any game this year so far, but if one misses time, or falls off the pace, the other two are capable of taking over. In my opinion, the hot hand wins. Dobbins is the front-runner to take over, but Edwards boasts an impressive 5.4 YPC on nearly 300 career rushes. Either one is capable of taking a leap in the fantasy ranks in Baltimore's strong rushing offense.
There is a lot to choose from outside of the top 48 who have the potential to jump up in the rankings. Only 20 FanDuel points separate No.23 from No.67. One big game could mean a huge jump.
Diontae Johnson is one who comes to mind. He is more than capable of being the top receiver in Pittsburgh, and so far, his target numbers reflect that. Marvin Jones seems like a forgotten man in Detroit but he has a lasting rapport with Matthew Stafford and is capable of having a string of good games.
T.Y. Hilton is another receiver who has struggled early on. Maybe he doesn't have that confidence with Philip Rivers yet, or maybe the Colts just haven't had a need for airing it out because their defense has been so good. Another reason could be the success of the offensive line making it easy for the Colts trio of rushers to produce decent yardage, led by rookie Jonathan Taylor.
Mo Alie-Cox is also seeing a lot of red zone looks and so far he is capitalizing. When the attempts aren't as plentiful, you have to make due on your chances, and so far, that isn't happening for Hilton. He does lead the team in targets with 22, but he hasn't reached pay dirt yet and his yardage numbers are meager at best. Once Indianapolis finds themselves in a battle, we should see Hilton's numbers increase..
Either one of the Eagles tight ends is capable of launching back into the top 15, especially Zach Ertz, and especially while Dallas Goedert is shelved with an ankle injury. Ertz hasn't looked as comfortable and as spry as he has in the past, so there may be something there. He also may not be fully on board with wanting to give his all for an organization that is likely to move on without him.
The talent is there and the opportunity is in front of him. If he doesn't move the needle for the team, Goedert can and will when he returns from injury in the next few weeks. Another player to be on the lookout for is Eric Ebron, who enjoyed a mini breakout game in Week 3 with 5 catches for 52 yards with a touchdown. Pittsburgh has a potent offense and its always a plus to have a tight end on a team who can score. We've seen that with Dalton Schultz and Robert Tonyan Jr. Ebron is a red zone magnet and Pittsburgh has shown they can score averaging 27 points per game.
Will Grant: Drew Brees isn't putting up fantasy starter numbers right now - but a big reason for that is Michael Thomas being on the sidelines. Brees is still accurate as heck with a 4-1 touchdown to interception ratio through the first 4 games. Thomas could be back in the Saints starting lineup this week and Brees should see an immediate boost in numbers with his top receiver back in the mix. .
I'll add my vote for Dobbins here as well. The Baltimore RBBC approach is a bit frustrating to fantasy owner (myself included as I have a few shares of Mark Ingram), but Dobbins is a guy with some big play potential. His 6.1 YPC are a bit inflated due to his low number of attempts but if Ingram can average 4.4, Dobbins should be able to as well.
As the season wears on, expect Dobbins to see more action as the Ravens want to has as many healthy veterans as they can available and healthy for their inevitable playoff run. Dobbins should be able to leverage the extra carries into solid fantasy production, especially in the passing game.
Jeff and Jason may laugh, but I think Greg Ward will finish as reasonable fantasy receiver this season, simply based on volume. Ward's had 18 targets and 12 receptions over the last two games, and appears to be moving to the front of the line when it comes to Philadelphia receivers. The Eagles have 6 games coming up against Dallas, Washington and the Giants and Ward will have plenty of opportunities to add fantasy value. He's a 'what-the-heck-flex' now and should be able to climb into the starting lineup of your fantasy lineup as the season progresses.
I can't possibly choose two Eagles for the same question so I'll put my chips on Greg Olsen. Seattle is looking strong now, with Russel Wilson off to a white-hot start as both a fantasy and NFL quarterback. Olsen is a big weapon, especially in the Red Zone and he's had 10 receptions over the last two games. Averaging 8.6 YPC now, a consistent volume and a few more end-zone visits could make Olsen one of the best sleeper tight ends of the season from a fantasy perspective.
Maurile Tremblay: Cam Newton is my pick here. Before the season started, I expected the Patriots to downplay Newton's rushing prowess a bit, in part because their offense typically features shorter drop-backs and quicker passes, which don't result in as many scrambles, and in part just to try to keep Newton Healthy. I was pretty severely wrong about that. The Patriots have turned Newton loose as a runner, and he's looked decent as a passer as well. The combination makes him a potent fantasy threat, and he'll be a solid every-week starter if he returns from his COVID-related absence in good health.
Since we're talking about a PPR format, James White is my choice here. His upside is limited, but his floor is high enough to make him a solid bet as at least a low-end RB2. This past week, his first back after a two-week absence for personal reasons, he got eight of the nine targets directed to the Patriots' backfield. His significant role in the passing game gives him steady value in PPR leagues.
Waldman: Great choice.
Tremblay: Diontae Johnson is my choice here for the same reason Daniel mentioned: volume. Johnson got double-digit targets in each of the first two games before getting concussed in Week 3. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool make for a crowded group of wide receivers in Pittsburgh, but Johnson excels at getting open and seems to have Roethlisberger's trust.
Zach Ertz is the easy call for tight end. He'll continue to rack up targets in the Eagles' depleted offense, and it's just a matter of time before he starts converting those targets into significant fantasy points.
Andrew Garda: I like Ben Roethlisberger for a surge into the top 15. Juju Smith-Schuster is banged up, but at some point, he’s going to be healthy and that’s going to help Big Ben a lot. I don’t feel like there’s that much space between him and the top 15 – and there are a few guys who are doing well that I think will fall off a little, making space for Roethlisberger.
I’m with Drew for Joshua Kelley. He will have opportunity with Ekelar’s injury and he should have plenty of carries. I am definitely believer in Herbert, so Drew’s point about moving the ball is sound, to me, and I believe that the Chargers will want to lean on the backfield to help their rookie out as well. To me, Kelley is the guy to do it.
I still love me some Cameron Brate but the tea leaves seem to point to Gronkowski with O.J. Howard out. I still feel he’s lost a few steps, and you can see in the targets that Brady feels the same, but he’s old reliable while Brate has disappeared at times. My heart loves Brate, but my head says my heart is an idiot and so I’m backing Gronkowski.
Daniel Simpkins: Cam Newton sits at QB18 due to the missed game, but I have every confidence he will move into the top ten before the season’s end. The Patriots have continued to use Newton in the ways that have made him a top-flight fantasy option in the past.
J.K. Dobbins at RB41 is my choice. Baltimore has brought him along rather slowly, but when I’ve watched his touches compared to those of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, it’s obvious to me that Dobbins is the most explosive option of the three. I just have a feeling that Dobbins will get more usage down the stretch as the running game becomes more important to defeating season-weary teams.
I’ll take Diontae Johnson who is currently WR56. He was knocked out of week three with a concussion and missed week four due to the Titans’ COVID situation. He’s getting target volume consistent with a top option in a great offense. He’s not always making the most of that, but he’s doing enough that I feel good about starting him at my WR3 spot week in and week out.
I’m going to be honest, Matt. I took a look at which tight ends are sitting outside the top 15 right now and I don’t expect any of them to climb into contention. Dallas Goedert is going to miss too much time to crack that group. Evan Engram isn’t being used in ways that will lead to that sort of production. Greg Olsen’s target volume is going to leave him just short of that mark. Sorry, but I don’t see anyone here who’s going to get in without unforeseeable injuries to the guys ahead of them.
Waldman: No apologies necessary, you did your due diligence and gave an explanation.
Fantasy Triage
Waldman: SELECT ONE of the following fantasy scenarios and walk us through your advice on how to approach each player involved.
Browns Backfield: Nick Chubb suffered a high-grade MCL sprain and he is out for likely six weeks but no surgery is necessary. It could be more time, but Kevin Stefanski won't rule out an earlier return. Considering that Chubb suffered three ligament tears--a trio of injuries that Jene Bramel told me is normally one of the most difficult to get the knee "right" surgically--in 2015 and returned 9 months later to carry the ball 32 times for 222 yards against North Carolina after a grueling rehab that included martial arts training, it's understandable why Stefanski sees Chubb as an exception.
- With Chubb likely out between 5-7 weeks, how do you regard him as a fantasy commodity? Give specific value in terms of trading away or acquiring.
- How does this change Hunt's value and what's your season-long strategy in terms of buying or selling his services?
- D'Ernest Johnson led the Browns in rushing last week. What advice do you have regarding him?
- Do you see any change in value for the passing game?
Tampa Bay Tight Ends (and Receivers): Two weeks ago, Bruce Arians told the media that Rob Gronkowski's purpose with the team was blocking. Some viewed this as gospel and others saw it as tongue-in-cheek media pablum. Now that O.J. Howard is out for the year with an Achilles tear, Chris Godwin is weeks away after his second injury (hammy) in a month, and Mike Evans has a high-ankle sprain, should we change our tune?Chargers Backfield: Austin Ekeler hyperextended his left knee and couldn't even bear weight on the leg. He's likely going to IR with a serious hamstring injury. That leaves the Chargers with Josh Kelley and Justin Jackson.
- Does Rob Gronkowski gain significant fantasy value moving forward? What do you advise?
- Cameron Brate has delivered underrated fantasy value with every quarterback in Tampa during his career. Will this continue with Tom Brady and how should you regard him for common league types (standard, PPR, Premium PPR).
- Should this question not be so myopic about tight ends and focus more on Tampa receivers? If so, which ones?
Again, choose only one situation.
- Does Kelley earn a bigger share of the Melvin Gordon role--say, the lead Gordon role pre-contract conflict that made Gordon a fantasy RB1 and Ekeler was a nice-to-have flex option?
- What should we expect from Justin Jackson? Can he fulfill the current Ekeler role or is he just hoping to fulfill a fraction of the smaller Ekeler role from the past?
- Do your expectations change based on Anthony Lynn's decision to let Tyrod Taylor start when healthy or keeps Justin Herbert in the lineup?
McNamara: Kelley finds himself in a great situation. Without Ekeler, Kelley should see 60 percent of snaps or more, with Jackson operating in the lesser half of a committee. That should put him on the RB2 radar every week. This offense has been better than expected, as Justin Herbert has earned the starting job after the fluke Tyrod Taylor lung deflation. Herbert should keep the job, which should create better opportunities for Kelley and company than a Taylor-led offense would create.
Wood: Josh Kelley had a fantastic training camp and was pushing for a regular role even when Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson were healthy. With Ekeler sidelined, possibly for most of the season, Los Angeles has no choice but to see what it's got in Kelley. The coaches know what they have in Jackson, but Kelley has 3-down potential. What's unclear is whether the offensive line can block well enough for either Kelley or Jackson to matter in 12-team fantasy leagues. But given the paucity of reliable fantasy running backs, Kelley should be a waiver priority if he's not already rostered.
Jackson doesn't lack talent, but he's lacked durability. I don't see the Chargers committing to a single back, so he'll be given an opportunity to approximate Ekeler's role. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
Based on how well Herbert has played, it would be ridiculous for Lynn to bench the rookie. Now, if Herbert regresses and Taylor is cleared, then it's a different story. For the sake of modeling the Jackson/Kelley, I worry Taylor stepping back into the lineup would allow defenses to safely keep seven or eight defenders in the box most of the time. I'm far more open to Kelley emerging as a fantasy star with Herbert in the huddle.
Davenport: Taking these questions backwards seems like the best way to do it when discussing the Chargers. I think that there is a huge difference between the way Taylor runs the offense and the way Herbert does. It's just one game that we saw with Taylor at the helm, but history suggests that the passing game work for any back in Los Angeles will be stunted if they turn back to Taylor. I'm far less bullish on the situation if Herbert cedes the job..
I'm not sure if I'm judging Justin Jackson off of his poor look in Week 1 when he was hobbled, but I think this backfield breaks down pretty healthily in Kelley's favor. The split may end up being closer to 60/40 in touches, but I would expect the high leverage touches to go to Kelley.
It's likely that Jackson takes some passing down work and certainly will earn carries, but I believe Kelley is going to command the early down designed screens as well as the goal line work. That means he'll be taking the Ekeler work in the passing game to a large degree, and I think this means he's the guy fantasy owners want if he can just stop fumbling the ball. I don't expect Jackson to have more than low RB3 or Flex appeal, and is best to be targeted in deeper leagues..
Haseley: I think the ship has sailed on Gronkowski being a fantasy-relevant option. He is looking more useful as a blocker and less as a powerful, quick-footed receiving threat. Those days are behind him.
He still has some value in the red zone, but I don't see him having consistent big games of 8 catches for over 100 yards and 2 scores, especially not in Bruce Arians offense that doesn't feature the tight end. The recent injuries to the receiving corps could mean a bit more involvement from Gronkowski, but I don't see that being sustained throughout the season.
Cameron Brate should see an uptick in snaps and involvement in offense with a chance to get in on the action with a stray touchdown or two, but I don't see him, or any Bucs tight end, featured in the long term. As I said with Gronkowski, we could see the tight end being utilized more in the passing game in the early going, due to injuries, but I don't see being sustained all year.
Heading into an early game this week against Chicago, the healthiest receiver may get the most action. I also believe Ronald Jones II and Ke'Shawn Vaughn will see an increase in targets as well. Can Mike Evans give it a go on a short week, and be effective? We're going to find out, but I lean towards no. I would put a chip on whoever is the healthiest receiver going into Thursday night's game, whether that's Evans, Scotty Miller, or Justin Watson.
Garda: Since I walked into the Tampa Bay tight end room, I might as well stick with it. I love Brate, but he’s been invisible this year. While Bruce Arians said at one point that Rob Gronkowski was a blocker, Brady has still looked at him more often – though Brate’s two targets for one catch isn’t hard to beat. Granted the catch was a touchdown but you can’t feed off that reliably.
I wouldn’t rely on him in any format, though I might stash him on my bench just in case Gronk’s legs fall apart and Brate is the one man left standing.
I think you invest in Gronkowski. I wouldn’t break the bank to get him, but I think he will have decent value now that OJ Howard is done. Tom Brady knows him and while Gronkowski has lost a few steps, he makes plays when Brady needs him to.
As for receivers – Godwin has been interesting but he’s got a lingering hamstring issue, and we know who Mike Evans is. Scotty Miller looks interesting but he’s hurt too. Sure maybe they are being cautious holding him out of practice, but I’m leery of him.
Justin Howe: No, I'm not bumping Gronkowski up the ladder much, if at all. He's clearly a situational role player here, with all of 14 targets through 4 games. Arians wasn't being cheeky - his scheme doesn't utilize the tight end spot very much at all. “We’re not throwing the ball 50 times to tight ends – that’s what we have receivers for [and] that’s the way our offense is built,” he told reporters two weeks ago. It hasn't been a priorirty for him since wasting Heath Miller in Pittsburgh.
Howard is a significantly more dynamic target than Gronkowski at this point, and even couldn't carve out a real role in this attack. I'd be stunned if the 31-year-old finished north of 35 catches, 400 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns on the season. Brate is an interesting case - he forged a great rapport with Jameis Winston - but doesn't move the needle at all. His best-case scenario is as a short-yardage touchdown specialist, but I won't be deploying him even as a TE2 streamer..
At this point, Mike Evans could wind up the only Buccaneer wideout to really bring home ADP value. Brady loves throwing him 50/50 balls, and Evans loves beating smaller defenders for them. His role has been rock-solid with and without Godwin in the lineup, and there are few better ceiling plays in football every week..
Grant: What a difference a week makes! Last week you couldn't pay me to have Gronkowski on my team. He felt like an obvious narrative street pick that was not in any position to add real fantasy value.
O.J. Howard is done for the year and a couple other injuries and suddenly Gronk becomes someone worth considering. That being said - make sure to realize what that means though. Howard wasn't putting up starting fantasy numbers before he went out, and even if Gronk inherits all of Howard's action, he won't either.
It's the lack of other alternatives that make Gronkowski an interesting prospect. If he starts churning out 5 receptions for 45-50 yards a game and chips in a score here and there, he's going to be worth having on your fantasy roster. Until Godwin and Evans are back, that's a distinct possibility. The key to remember is that Gronkowski hasn't played a full 16 game season in the last eight years. He's going to break down at some point. Use him if you got him, trade him for something better if you can. However, expect that at some point, you're going to need other options.
Brate feels like that guy who every season you think 'last year was his last good year' and you discount him in the draft and then end up grabbing him off the waiver wire during the regular season. 2020 is another. As mentioned above, Gronk will probably be the guy who benefits the most from Howard's absence, but keep Brate on speed dial in case Gronk goes down to injury. Brate was never a big yards guy, but his red zone value makes him an interesting bye-week fill in. For now, I'd say hold off on burning a roster spot unless you're in a deep league and can afford to carry him for a bit.
If Scott Miller is still available in your league, this is definitely the week to pick him up. His value was increasing a bit but with Godwin and Howard out of the lineup for a bit (Howard for the season), Miller is going to be the next man up. He had just five receptions last week but managed to score and will definitely see more action this week against a struggling Chicago team. He's worth a roster spot right now, unlike Brate who is a wait and see.
Tremblay: Ekeler will miss at least a month. In the meantime, I don't think either Kelley or Jackson will replace him in the sense of fitting into his role. With Ekeler out, the offense will change a bit because the Chargers don't have any other RBs capable of running all the same routes that Ekeler did as a receiver. Kelley and Jackson are similar in style to each other, and I think they'll be used interchangeably. I'd guess that there will be about a 60-40 split in Kelley's favor, but it could be more like 50-50 if neither back is clearly outperforming the other.
Ekeler's absence will matter less to the offense if Taylor returns to the starting lineup because Taylor is less likely than Herbert to use his RBs as an outlet rather than tucking the ball on his own if nothing downfield is open. In Week 1, recall that the Chargers' running backs collectively had only a single target (which went to Ekeler). With Herbert at quarterback, the running backs have averaged 8.7 targets a game. That number will go down with Ekeler out no matter who is at quarterback, but it will go down more significantly if it's Taylor..
Simpkins: I’m not trading Chubb away, because when he returns, he’ll be a top option. In most redraft leagues, I also took Kareem Hunt to hedge for this sort of situation. In most dynasty leagues, I would be a fool to deal a player that I view as a generational talent. I’m still kicking myself about dealing him to you in our staff IDP Dynasty league. That’s what I get for chasing tight end production in a tight end premium format.
Waldman: You had good running back depth and I'm sure I looked like a homer overly enamored with a Georgia Bulldog and Cleveland Brown.
Simpkins: I guess I'll have to find a way to beat you regardless in our head-to-head this week. Should be a little easier for me without facing Chubb...
Waldman: You'd be the first this year, but I'm hoping I can pick a winner from my less-than-stellar depth chart. Back to the question.
Simpkins: Hunt now takes Chubb’s place as a top-five option. I doubt he’s obtainable now if you don’t have him on your team already because of the memory of what he has done in times past with a full workload. Nevertheless, I would still put out an offer and see if the general manager in question is open to it. If I have Hunt, I’m certainly not shopping him and I’m not selling him unless the offer is just too good to refuse.
Johnson needs to be rostered if you are Hunt’s general manager. While he is a downgrade in terms of how he integrates his skill compared to Hunt, he still can have value behind this run-blocking offensive line that is absolutely creasing opposing defensive linemen and linebackers.
I don’t think Chubb was inferior to Hunt in terms of catching the ball. I also don’t think Hunt’s target volume takes a tremendous uptick with this development. The only thing that changes is Hunt will earn the bulk of the between-the-tackles work now.
Pasquino: Cleveland is the leading rushing team in the NFL (thanks, Cowboys defense), so I see no reason why this would change. Chubb is out, but I would definitely keep him for the fantasy postseason. Their Week 15 (Giants) and Week 16 (at Jets) schedule is about as good as it gets, so having him for your playoff games is well worth stashing him (or trading for him). If you have an IR spot and he is eligible, even better.
Hunt becomes an instant RB1, with RB2 value if and when Chubb is back. He will get 75% of the workload going forwards for the top rushing team, and he is a strong threat as a receiver as well. What's not to like?
The passing game is secondary to the run game, and will work off of establishing the run and some play action. Nothing spectacular for the passing attack going forwards, as the Browns will not look to break what is not broken - just run the ball.
Breakout? Or, Lucky Break?
Waldman: Pick two players from this list and explain why they're breaking out this year as a viable starter for the season based on last week's performance or it was a lucky break and don't fuss over them.
- Robert Tonyan Jr
- Olamide Zaccheaus
- Damien Harris
- Ke'Shawn Vaughn
- Hunter Renfrow
- Tee Higgins
Grant: Having added Jace Sternberger as 'The next great Packer Tight End' - it pains me to say it, but Tonyan was the way to go. Aaron Rodgers found his mojo again and the Packers are looking better than they have in a while as they head into the bye week.
Yes Tonyan blew up this week with 3 receiving touchdowns but he has one in each of the previous two games as well. With 5 of Rodgers' 13 passing touchdowns this year, Tonyan is already a potential top tier fantasy tight end and unless he is injured, he'll easily finish the season as a top 10 fantasy tight end and could even be top 5 or higher.
Zaccheaus feels like a guy with a cool name you want on your roster, but you'll spend more time stressing over starting him when you shouldn't and kicking yourself when you didn't. Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones are the clear No.1 and No.2 on the Falcons. Both are injured which is giving Zaccheaus and Russell Gage an opportunity to play and contribute. But it will be short lived at best unless the injuries to Jones and Ridley drag out more than expected. Zaccheaus is a starter for the extremely short term, but nothing more.
Simpkins:I’ve already discussed in a previous roundtable why Tonyan is earning starter work over Jace Sternberger. With the injury to Allen Lazard and Devonta Adams’ hamstring issue, it has opened the door for Tonyan to be a bigger part of the passing game. Matt, you’ve made a great case for Tonyan continuing this streak in last week’s The Replacements with which I fully agree..
Vaughn’s performance to me feels more like a lucky break that was a function of Leonard Fournette being out. I like Vaughn long-term in dynasty formats if he can improve his vision, but for this year, I think general managers need to lower their expectations.
Wood: The two who stand out are Tonyan and Harris. Tonyan has caught touchdowns in three straight games, which have in part coincided with injuries to Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. While Adams should return soon, Lazard is out for a long time. Many fantasy pundits called Jace Sternberger as a sleeper in the preseason, and the underlying logic behind that call holds with Tonyan.
I chose Higgins over Renfrow and Zaccheaus because the latter two are doing well thanks to injuries, while Higgins is emerging enough to move past A.J. Green as the second starting wideout for the Bengals. Cincinnati is in a youth movement to build around Joe Burrow, and Higgins is seeing more targets (16) the past two weeks than Green (11). With Green this close to adding "(inj)" to his last name permanently, Higgins looks every bit the part of a solid starting wide receiver opposite of Tyler Boyd.
Davenport: Ke'Shawn Vaughn is someone that I wouldn't fuss over. Ronald Jones II certainly struggled a bit catching the ball on Sunday and this is a concern, but the backfield is just too crowded for Vaughn to be a fantasy starter for the season. With the presence of Jones and Leonard Fournette alone it would be hard for Vaughn to elbow those two aside to get the touches to make me stand up and pay attention.
The opportunity on Sunday was injury related and I'm not banking on it being much more. He could end up supplanting LeSean McCoy, but that role has been worthless for fantasy purposes.
Tee Higgins, however, is someone I'm buying the rest of the year. I didn't like Higgins for redraft purposes coming into the year because I wasn't seeing the path to getting on the field over A.J. Green or Tyler Boyd consistently. But Green has been absolutely dreadful so far, and Higgins has barged through the open door. I'm not sure that's a bell that can be "unrung" at this point so I think Higgins will remain as a threat all year for the Bengals. I'm buying his breakout.
Haseley: Those who got on board the Robert Tonyan Jr train are patting themselves on the back. I know Aaron Rodgers isn't prone to targeting the tight end in his career, but this feels like a different Rodgers this year, almost like he's the Bizarro Rodgers. It doesn't matter who's on the field, he is making it happen. Perhaps it was the drafting of Jordan Love that sparked his competitiveness? Rapport and confidence have already been established with Tonyan and Rodgers. I don't see that going away when Davante Adams returns after the Week 5 bye. I would feel comfortable starting Tonyan on the Packers who are scoring 38 points per game. .
I'm on board the Higgins wagon as a fantasy-relevant receiver in Cincinnati's offense that is averaging 44.2 pass attempts per game (2nd only to Seattle). He is starting to take over A.J. Green's role in the offense and his 6'4 frame is making it easy for Joe Burrow to find him, especially in the red zone. Higgins feels like he is here to stay while Green looks like his sun is setting.
Tremblay: Olamide Zaccheaus had a terrific game on Monday night, but that was with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley struggling through hamstring injuries. Russell Gage has also performed well this season, leaving Zaccheaus as the fourth option at wide receiver when everybody is healthy. The Falcons' offense will not support four starting fantasy wide receivers.
Tee Higgins's situation in Cincinnati is different from Olamide Zaccheaus's situation in Atlanta. While there is basically no way that Zaccheaus will earn a starting role over Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones, I would not rule out the idea that Tee Higgins will supplant A.J. Green as a regular starter in the Bengals' offense. Higgins has looked better than Green so far this season, and while Green is still getting more snaps than Higgins in two-wide-receiver sets, Higgins is getting some at Green's expense already, and his fraction could continue to grow if he continues to outplay Green. In the meantime, Higgins is getting enough snaps in three-wide-receiver sets to make himself relevant in fantasy leagues.
McNamara: Damien Harris is a player I drafted a lot in 2019 rookie drafts. It has been a long hold but now he has the opportunity to secure a role with Sony Michel on IR. The Patriots will be a home favorite this week, so this could be an opportunity for Harris to further secure his role. I'm not sure the density of the breakout, but I feel secure about Harris as a Week 5 starter and then reevaluate after their week 6 bye.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn is a nice player that was overdrafted in dynasty rookie drafts. He's was a multiple injury away player after Week 1. He's benefited from injuries to Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy in week four. Vaughn could be an injury away behind Ronald Jones II while Fournette and McCoy are out, but I don't think Vaughn is anything more than a desperation flex without a Jones injury.
Garda: I think Hunter Renfrow is lucky right now and when Henry Ruggs comes back, that’s a wrap. I especially feel this way because last week the whole reason he was good was garbage time. And maybe that’s going to be a thing, as the Raiders aren’t exactly world beaters, however as Darren Waller still gets most of the attention from Derek Carr, I don’t trust Renfrow anyway. I think you might see a game or two, maybe a few here or there when everyone is back but I don’t trust it.
I’m also leery of Robert Tonyan Jr. The Packers have been chasing the solution at tight end for years, and they have people step up but never consistently. To me, Tonyan is a product of Davante Adams’ injury and I feel like once Adams is back, things will settle down again. I do like two things about Tonyan quite a bit – catching 13 of 14 targets and the volume of touchdowns. I don’t think either is sustainable but it’s hard not to take notice.
Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire Worth his Pre-Draft Buzz?
Matt Waldman: I posted this topic in one form last week as a potential question for panelists to choose from. Now, I'm making it mandatory.
Edwards Helaire is the No.12 runner in PPR formats. He's at the bottom end of the top-15 backs in receptions and just outside the top-5 in passing yardage. His yardage totals overall are strong, but he has one touchdown.
Against the Patriots, he had two carries and a target and came up empty. His running back coach after Week 1 against the lowly Texans defense said that the red zone woes were 100 percent on Edwards-Helaire misreading keys that were explained in the classroom.
Many were pushing HARD for Edwards-Helaire as a top-five fantasy back in this Kansas City offense. He's clearly a good talent but...
Are you buying or selling based on what you've seen? If you were among those touting him as a top-five RB, are you cutting bait or doubling down?
Tremblay: I was not buying Edwards-Helaire in preseason drafts because I figured that if he was going to upper-tier fantasy production, it was going to be because the Chiefs' offense would flourish across the board. But in that case, while I'd love to have every Chiefs player I could get my hands on, I'd have rather had Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek HIll, or Travis Kelce than Edwards-Helaire -- and those players tended to be available later than Edwards-Helaire was.
The first four weeks of the season have confirmed a number of the arguments in favor of spending a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs offense is that awesome, and Edwards-Helaire is not in any kind of time-share. He's the lead back in the best offense in the league, and that almost always warrants a first-round fantasy pick.
On the other hand, depending on the scoring system, I'd still probably rather have any of Mahomes, Kelce, and probably Hill than I would Edwards-Helaire. But I wouldn't complain about any of them. On the whole, I don't think people who drafted Edwards-Helaire should be experiencing buyer's remorse. The volume is already there, and the touchdowns will come.
Davenport: I was definitely one of those not buying Edwards-Helaire as a top-five running back coming into the year. I think where he is now is about what I thought about him - that I wanted to have him as my RB2 so he could be an RB10-15.
Obviously, the situation is great, but the start he's had is part of the equation that makes the discussion worthwhile in the first place. Putting it all together, as a rookie, to push for the top 5 is a tall task for anyone. Edwards-Helaire is in a great spot, but I'm not buying that he'll leap up near the top of the running back pool.
However, I do think the point about him missing keys in the red zone is instructive, but not definitive, on his prospects for the final 12 weeks. He can learn those things (and if he doesn't, he'll lose the work to Darrel Williams). I actually do believe he'll get better, he's a talented player, and from what I've seen so far he is an exciting fantasy producer.
His point totals don't reflect his value so far, so although this sounds contradictory, I'm not buying that he's a top 5 running back this year, but I'm still buying the player because he's going to find plenty of touchdowns in this offense - rookie or no.
Garda: Like Drew, I would buy as his value is low and I think he will improve – but I was always a little leery of him. We just had no idea what he really would be and I felt like the hype was a wave I wasn’t going to surf. I like him, I have him in dynasty leagues, I just wasn’t going nuts trying to get him in redraft.
But what I do like is his involvement in the pass game and his ability to catch what is thrown his way. So I think he will do fine, especially in PPR, but as no more than an RB2 with upside.
Simpkins: I wasn’t among those touting Edwards-Helaire as a top-five option this year and I still haven’t changed my mind. To finish as a top-five option, I believe a back has to have a complete game, including being able to win collisions when running between the tackles. I haven’t seen that happen yet with Edwards-Helaire. It sort of reminds me of watching Christian McCaffrey in his rookie season.
The physical tools were there, but they needed to be refined. That’s where I am at with Edwards-Helaire. I believe he will reach that elite tier next season if he applies himself in the ways that McCaffrey did. McCaffrey added five pounds of muscle mass before his sophomore year and improved his ability to read blocks and defender positioning. If Edwards-Helaire does the same thing, look out for him breaking into the top five next year.
Haseley: On the bright side, Edwards-Helaire is ranked inside the top 15, but expectations were higher when he assumed the lead role when Damien Williams opted out for the season. Edwards-Helaire looked spry, capable, and dominant in Week 1 against the Raiders. He has struggled to find the end zone since and has not broken 64 yards rushing since that impressive Week 1 debut.
Some positive aspects include 15 receptions and 71 carries (61 more than the next closest back on the team). The only major drawback to this point is his inability to score touchdowns on a potent offense. He's struggling inside the five-yard line, but at least he is still getting opportunities. The likelihood of him being ranked inside the top 10 hinges on his ability to score. If he can't do that, consistently, he won't be a top 10 back. So far, that's where the scale is leaning, but a big game that instills confidence in the offense to give him more opportunities could turn the tables in his favor.
Howe: I'm definitely "buying" in the sense that I'd love to take advantage of concerned fantasy managers. Many are wringing their hands over his good-not-great start; they were expecting 2017 Kareem Hunt fireworks. But this is almost certainly his floor, and there's the very real possibility he exceeds it going forward. If someone offers me Edwards-Helaire for an uncertain commodity like a Justin Jefferson or a Darrell Henderson, I'll take it happily.
That said, I'm also not expecting some monstrous breakout for Edwards-Helaire. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see him spend the rest of the season in this zone, winding up around 1,400 total yards and 6-8 touchdowns (RB12-15). First and foremost: that would be just fine! The fantasy community had wild year-one expectations of 60-70 receptions and 15 touchdowns.
But it has to be noted that the Kansas City offense isn't as high-volume as the perception, sitting 9th in snaps and 11th in rush attempts. And needless to say, there are a LOT of mouths to feed here. Edwards-Helaire's workload isn't a huge priority while Patrick Mahomes II is scorching the Ravens for 385 and 4 touchdowns.
And besides, we have no reason yet to believe Edwards-Helaire is even a comparable NFL talent to Hunt. It's early yet, and the rookie has struggled in a few key aspects of the game.
Grant: I've been on the wrong side of the consensus most of the way, but I think I'm still buying Edwards-Helaire right now. Pre-season I was skeptical, thinking he was probably second-round value when most people were thinking first. Then the Chiefs named him the starter and he had the big Week 1 game to open the season and I got on board.
Now that he's been fading, i'm sticking with him, even though the trend seems to be to 'sell (sorta) high' right now. Yes, he's not reaching the end zone, but the reality is NONE of the KC backs are. He has the one and only rushing TD from a running back and Anthony Sherman has one short-yardage receiving TD. Patrick Mahomes II has another rushing TD and that's it. Most of their scoring has been through the air.
If you put aside his lack of touchdowns for a second - Edwards-Helaire has some pretty impressive stat lines, and he is the workhorse back on an offense that sits in the top 3rd of the NFL. There's no way he's not in your lineup every week. .
Will he be a top 5 finisher? There's still plenty of time to find out. Injuries have taken out guys like Christian McCaffery and Saquan Barkley—two backs who probably went before him in every draft. Aside from the touchdowns, he's posted about the same stats as Ezekiel Elliott through the first four games. At some point KC is going to need to score from short yardage and Edwards-Helaire is going to bounce back when they do. I'm sticking with him.
Pasquino: Okay, I took a good amount of heat for my preseason ranking of Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a high-end RB2 for this season, but that's pretty much where he is today. The season is long, but for now the numbers are lining up about where I thought they would be, although the mix is not the same. I expected Edwards-Helaire to find the end zone a little more, but for the supporting tailback cast to get more touches than they have. What has happened is that the Kansas City offense is running through Patrick Mahomes II, and rightly so. With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman as four strong receiving options (plus Mahomes' rushing ability), the Chiefs can look to throw the ball first with Mahomes in the red zone with five viable targets (including Edwards-Helaire) or Mahomes can just tuck it and run it himself.
While it is true that the easiest position to learn and adapt to from college to the NFL on offense is running back, Andy Reid's playbook is not the simplest by any stretch of the imagination. Edwards-Helaire has just six rushes for minus-two yards and one target inside of the opponents' five-yard line, which speaks again to the pass-first approach that works best for Kansas City. The rookie tailback is doing a solid job of moving the ball between the 20-yard lines, but in the red zone he is still not delivering what fantasy owners and Andy Reid wants - trips to the end zone.
On Monday Night Football in Week 4, they made a point to compare Edwards-Helaire to his running backs coach, Eric Bieniemy. They compared similarly in size and draft position, but what they failed to point out is that Bieniemy was a between-the-20's tailback too. Bieniemy scored 11 rushing touchdowns on 387 career carries, but just four of them from inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Brian Westbrook, another back that Edwards-Helaire has drawn comparisons, to, scored 25 of his 41 rushing touchdowns from that same area of the field. Until the rookie develops short yardage skills, he will struggle to crack the Top 10 fantasy tailbacks.
McNamara: Clyde Edwards-Helaire was not a high efficiency receiver in college and he has not been one through four weeks. If he was a prototypical 5'10" and 220 pounds, we think he is a runner who needs to expand in the passing game. Since he looks more like a receiving back, there is bias towards expecting high level receiving production without much in his profile to suggest that upside.
In addition, the Chiefs have invested over $600,000,000 in the passing, in Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins. It is unlikely Edwards-Helaire carves out a massive passing role given his inefficiency and the rest of the supporting cast.
Waldman: If you draft first-round players with the hope that that you're getting a safe producer, then there's no argument that Edwards-Helaire has fulfilled these criteria. If you draft first-round players, especially in top-five picks with the expectation that they deliver close to top-five production, then the jury is still out and the verdict is not looking good.
As Drew mentioned, Edwards-Helaire's decisions as a green-zone runner are correctable. Even so, I'll post this video once again that breaks down those touches because if you haven't seen it, it was clear that Edwards-Helaire either had no clue about how to run the play or completely ignored his run keys.
It's important to note that Edwards-Helaire has not split much time at all with the other backs in the red zone, so it's telling that the Chiefs' solution to its lack of rushing production in the red zone has been to stop running inside. The red zone is a much different facet of play in football than the rest of the field. This is why teams devote significant chunks of practice time to it every day.
Edwards-Helaire may have produced as a red zone option in the college game, but it's clear that he has a lot to prove with this area in the NFL, and I don't think his touchdown volume is going to come because he's due. He has the capacity to improve his reads and this could help him become a greater factor. However, he's not a powerful back.
Every time I hear broadcasters and analysts comment on his power, I cringe. Watch the video above and you'll see that his power is below average. He has good contact balance, above-average burst, excellent movement, and strong receiving skills. However, he's not powerful and he's slower than average. These two qualities ai just mentioned will lessen his likelihood of earning runs greater than 30 yards and generating tough gains in short yardage.
It's why I think what we're seeing with Edwards-Helaire this year is what we're going to get. There will be a week or two where he has multiple touchdowns, but I think they will be few and far between.
Running back is considered an easy-to-acclimate position relative to other positions but analysts can go off the deep end and lean on this statement like a bad crutch. You'll often hear that running back is an instinctive position. This is false. Running back is a position where there are a ton of skills that have to be so ingrained that they operate at the speed of instinct.
Defensive end is actually an easier position of acclimation to the NFL. The athletic requirements are highly specific, the player usually can learn the refined techniques within 1-2 years in the league, and defensive ends can have their roles specialized to a greater degree and still earn top pass-rushing production.
While there are still teams that require less from its running backs than others in the league, a lot of backs enter the league with a lack of knowledge with certain blockign schemes that delay their development 2-3 years (if they develop at all). Pass protection is also a far more complex task at this level.
Running backs don't need to handle all of the broad requirements of the job—assignment-sound and technically-sound pass pro, route running, pass catching, running between the tackles in zone and gap schemes, short-yardage power running, perimeter running, and open-field running—to have success as a committee back or lead starter.
However, the less they can do when it comes to that list of criteria, the less likely they can become an elite back in the NFL. While not all of the criteria on this list has equal weight, Edwards-Helaire is missing the power, the red-zone running, the pass protection, and a component of open-field running that leads to breakaway plays. That's enough to conclude that at least this year, he's really good for a rookie but overhyped in fantasy.
I'll repeat my conclusion from last week:
I'm not saying Edwards-Helaire can't, or even won't be, a top-12 running back in fantasy leagues this year, but I have not seen anything from his September tape that shows starter skill when forced to generate between-the-tackles power or contact balance, and his decision-making with tight creases in short-yardage and green-zone situations has been inadequate. This was the gap for me during the summer and it remains the gap for me now.
I will double-down that Helaire will not be a top-five fantasy back in 2020. He's an exciting player but just as Dan [Hindery] noted with Brees that the top quarterbacks earn rushing yardage, the top running backs get hard yards and score in the green zone. Even Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Christian McCaffrey.
Until Edwards-Helaire proves he can make the decisions and actually push piles and break wraps generated by linebackers rather than corners and safeties, I'm not projecting that level of success.
