Dynasty Trade Value Chart: May

With the draft in the books, it is time to take stock of the impact on veterans and work on our rookie draft boards. In May’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart article we will look at:

• Reshuffle our rookie boards and reassess rookie pick values
• Some of the biggest veteran winners and losers of draft weekend
• Try to make sense of the flurry of trades

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Player Value Changelog

Dynasty trade values are now being updated in real time (instead of monthly) in the dynasty trade value app. Based on positive feedback last month, we will lead off with the changelog, detailing all of the player value movement since April 1.

Please note that the log has been ordered by how much the player’s value changed over the past month.

Dynasty Web Apps

We have introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-dynasty-trade-value-app

It has been updated to reflect the updated dynasty values you see below and also has adjusted 2022 player values based upon redraft ADP as of May, 1.

2022 Rookie Players and Picks

With the draft in the books, we will list the player names and picks together. This will allow you to adjust for your league size as to which pick is in which round and it is always helpful to see some potential names tied to specific pick ranges to get a better idea of what options you would have if you trade up or down.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Superflex first-round picks took a hit when three of the top four quarterbacks fell at least two rounds further than expected. At this point, Kenny Pickett is a mid- to late-first-rounder (7th-to-10th overall). He is a good athlete and has some weapons at his disposal.

In some early drafts, I am seeing the next tier of quarterbacks getting overdrafted. It is impossible for me to justify taking a late-third-round rookie quarterback in the first round. The mid-second round is where the risk-versus-reward starts making sense for Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and Desmond Ridder.

Rookie Running Backs

From early rookie draft observations, Breece Hall is the clearcut 1.01 in just about every draft. In some ways, it makes sense. He is a top talent who was drafted early and the Jets offense has potential. The gap between Hall and the pack is probably less than the perception, however. Michael Carter II is a good player and is going to eat into Hall’s PPR upside. Plus, while the Jets young offense has potential, it is still a major work in progress.

Depending on team need, Kenneth Walker III is likely to go anywhere from 1.02 to 1.04. The landing spot is solid and Walker should get plenty of touches, though questions will persist about his involvement in the passing game.

After the top two, there is a massive gap to James Cook. While there is potential for a bigger role, a more likely scenario is for Cook to play a James White-type role while Devin Singletary holds onto most of the early-down work.

After Cook, it is hard to get excited about any of the next tier of backs. Based upon the odds, one of these guys will emerge as a fantasy-relevant performer. But between Rachaad White, Brian Robinson Jr, Dameon Pierce, Tyrion Davis-Price, Isaiah Spiller, Tyler Allgeier, Zamir White, Kyren Williams, and Pierre Strong Jr we should expect most to play complementary roles.

Rookie Wide Receivers

Unless my team had a bigger need at running back, if I owned the 1.01 in a PPR league, I would strongly consider trading down a few spots to pick up some value and take one of the top wide receivers. Put me down as excited for Drake London and Garrett Wilson, especially. What are the chances we look back and this class is similar to the one a couple of years ago where there was a big premium on the running backs at the top of the draft but only Jonathan Taylor hit it big while Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb outperformed the rest of the backs?

The value of picks in the top half of the first round feels flatter than the public consensus. Chris Olave is a talented dude and landed in a sneaky great situation. Love him at 1.05 and you might even be able to get him later. Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, and Jahan Dotson were each Top 20 picks and could emerge as go-to weapons in their offenses early on.

Then you have Christian Watson and Skyy Moore who landed in absolutely ideal situations.

Tyquan Thornton, John Metchie III, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Alec Pierce don’t have quite the same name-brand recognition and the landing spots do not blow you away. But ignore Top 50 overall draft capital at your own peril.

Rookie Tight Ends

With the possible exception of Trey McBride, the tight ends in this class will fly way under the radar. While there is not a sure thing to be found, there was plenty of talent in the mid-rounds. This is a position where it will make sense to stock up in the later rounds, especially if you have deeper rosters. It is hard to predict who, but I expect multiple tight ends drafted in the third round or later this year to eventually develop into fantasy-relevant assets.

2023 Rookie Picks

Check last month’s article for some initial thoughts on the class. Overall, it should be a good one, especially at the top.

We saw Quarterback-needy teams (except the Steelers) punt the position in the 2022 NFL Draft. Dynasty managers should mimic the strategy. If you are desperate for a quarterback, do not reach for one of these third-rounders this year. Instead, try to stack some picks for next year so you are positioned to take advantage of what should be a much better class.

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End