Superflex Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft 4.0

Photo: Bob DeChiara, USA Today Sports

With the NFL Draft behind us and landing spots identified, Dynasty managers are preparing for their Superflex Dynasty rookie drafts. Speaking of, you should download our FREE Rookie Guide with 120+ prospect profiles in order to get an understanding of who these prospects are and how we should value them.

With that in mind, here is our 4.0 edition of a Superflex rookie mock draft, this time spanning three rounds of a 12-team league. And you'll also see how each player has moved up or down from our 3.0 mock.

Round 1

1.01 - Bijan Robinson (RB - Falcons)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: 0)

It's important to evaluate your roster. Ideally, you'd like to be able to compete for a title within one to three seasons where Robinson can be a major contributor while still on his rookie contract and in his absolute prime. If you earned the 1.01 because your roster is a mess and competing for a championship anytime soon looks dicey, then seeing what you can get for the 1.01 makes sense since some are likely to pay a hefty price in order to acquire the rights to be able to draft Robinson. He's the selection here if you aren't trading out, though. Don't get cute. Robinson was just selected No. 8 overall and found one of the best landing spots imaginable with a coach in Arthur Smith, who loves to pound the rock. He's the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley

1.02 - Anthony Richardson (QB - Colts)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: +2)

Richardson isn't as polished of a passer as C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young, as he struggles with touch throws and being consistently accurate. These are legit concerns, but Richardson has the highest upside of any quarterback in this class if he can continue developing. There were landing spot concerns with Richardson that didn't exist with Young and Stroud, but those were eliminated when the Colts selected Richardson at #4 overall to be their franchise quarterback and immediately made their plans known to start him from day one. While Richardson develops, he has the athleticism to pay off this cost while on his rookie contract. Richardson is 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds and tested out of this world at the combine. He ran a 4.43 40-yard dash (fourth-best among quarterbacks since 2003), posted a 40 1/2-inch vertical jump (best among quarterbacks since 2003), and logged a 10-foot-9 broad jump (best among quarterbacks since 2003). Simply put, Richardson is the most athletic quarterback in NFL history. Richardson offers things that can't be taught: Size, athleticism, and flick of the wrist deep arm talent. Rushing production at quarterback is the cheat code, and Richardson will offer elite upside in that area right away.

1.03 - Bryce Young (QB - Panthers)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: 0)

Young was ranked behind C.J. Stroud in the previous version of this article, but he has since been selected No. 1 overall to a better landing spot with the Panthers. Young's height (5-foot-10) and weight (204 pounds) are both concerns, but that is only one part of the story. In two seasons as the starter at Alabama, Young threw for 8,200 yards and 79 touchdowns in 27 games. Young wasn't a dynamic runner in college. But he has that skill in his bag, and his athleticism shows up routinely on film within the pocket. Young can naturally easily evade pressure within the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield around pressure, and steps up in the pocket to keep the play alive. He has exciting arm talent, and multiple indicators of high-level mental processing consistently appear in his game: He knows where his check down is and throws to it to salvage a play often, makes anticipatory throws, processes through reads, and communicates with his offensive line pre-snap when it comes to protections. You'd be doing yourself a disservice when it comes to Young if you hyper-focus on his smaller frame. Outliers exist, and Young has the mind, athleticism, and arm talent to be one at the quarterback position and will be surrounded by a favorable infrastructure in Carolina that includes head coach Frank Reich and Quarterback Coach Josh McCown.

1.04 - Jahmyr Gibbs (RB - Lions)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: +2)

Gibbs is an Alvin Kamara clone stylistically, but it is important to note his profile comes with more risk since he weighed in at the combine at 199 pounds compared to Kamara's 214 pounds. Still, his versatile, dual-threat skill set fits perfectly in today's NFL. He's a natural receiver, as evidenced by his 103 catches for 1,212 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns in just three collegiate seasons. After two solid years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs transferred to Alabama and wasted no time putting his talents on display in the SEC. Gibbs ran for 926 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns and caught 44 passes for 444 receiving yards and 3 scores in 2022. Gibbs has good footwork, sticks his foot in the ground and goes, is shifty, has good contact balance, is dangerous when he gets to the edge, and is a big play threat every time he touches the ball. It's clear the Detroit Lions agree with this evaluation as they selected him at No. 12 overall and proceeded to trade away D'Andre Swift shortly after. Gibbs' draft capital and favorable landing spot in a good offense with a quarterback in Jared Goff, who has no problem throwing intermediate passes and checking the ball down.

1.05 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR - Seahawks)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: 0)

Smith-Njigba had an incredible combine performance, posting a 3.93 20-yard-shuttle (Fourth best among wide receivers since 2007) and a 6.57 3-cone-drill (12th best among wide receivers since 2007). And that paired nicely with elite on-field production. As a true sophomore, Smith-Njigba averaged 4.01 yards per route run and caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards. All three of those marks were better than teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, who were not only selected within the first 11 picks of last year's draft but also lived up to the hype in their rookie seasons. A hamstring injury limited Smith-Njigba to only three games in 2022, but don't let that cause you to forget what he did the year before. A knock on Smith-Njigba is he was mainly a slot wide receiver in college (83% of his routes came from the slot), which could limit his upside in the NFL. But again, let's remember he shared the same field with Wilson and Olave, two bona fide elite outside wide receivers. Ohio State had to find a way to get all three players on the field at the same time, and that could've played a role in Smith-Njigba's high slot rate. The outlook looks similar for Smith-Njigba as a rookie after landing in Seattle with superstars DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Good thing he's already proven he can excel playing alongside two stud outside receivers! Still, this landing spot isn't ideal in the short term as the Seahawks will drastically need to increase their usage of 11 personnel for Smith-Njigba to truly be relevant in year one. From a dynasty perspective, though, Lockett will play the entire 2023 season at age 31, and Smith-Njigba landed in an ideal situation in order to be utilized as more than just a slot receiver long-term. Look for Smith-Njigba to take over Lockett's inside and outside versatile usage within the offense sooner rather than later.

1.06 - C.J. Stroud (QB - Texans)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: -4)

Unlike with Bryce Young, there are no size concerns with Stroud, who stands 6-foot-3 and 214 pounds. In two seasons as the starter at Ohio State, Stroud threw for 8,123 yards and 85 touchdowns in 25 games. He has strong arm talent that allows him to make every throw in the book. His accuracy and touch on deep balls consistently show up on film, and his accurate downfield sideline shots are reminiscent of Joe Burrow. Stroud has enough athleticism for his size to provide an extra element at the next level, specifically when creating and evading pressure within the pocket. And two indicators of good mental processing show up repeatedly when watching him: anticipatory throws and back shoulder throws all over the field, including deep down the field. The defense has to cover the entire field when trying to defend him, and that's exactly what we want in our quarterback. Stroud falls four spots since the previous version of this article, as the landing spot is a bit worrisome after the Texans selected him at #2 overall and then sent a boatload to trade back up to #3 and select Will Anderson. Those actions likely tell us Stroud was not the overwhelming favorite to be the selection if Houston only ended up making one of the two picks. Still, depending on team needs and personal league market dynamics, Stroud could be selected as high as 1.04, and I would have no problem with it.

1.07 - Jordan Addison (WR - Vikings

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: 0)

Addison is Mr. Reliable. He can do everything. In his two seasons at Pittsburgh and his junior year at USC, Addison was deployed all over the field. He offers versatility and is a very good route runner. As a true freshman, Addison impressively caught 60 passes for 666 yards and 4 touchdowns. He followed that up with a dominating sophomore campaign in which he caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. Addison then transferred to USC, and while his junior season wasn't as impressive statistically, he was still featured heavily in the Trojans' offense. Addison is a polished player ready to seamlessly transition to an NFL offense and strikes me as a player that offers both a high floor and a high ceiling. Now, there is a red flag that must be mentioned: Addison is only 5-foot-11 and 173 pounds. His weight is a concern. But the league is trending toward lighter receivers, and DeVonta Smith is an example of a player around the same weight currently producing strong numbers in the pros. And the Vikings seem to be perfectly fine with it as they just selected him #23 overall to be the Robin to Justin Jefferson's Batman. This is a fantastic immediate landing spot for Addison in a pass-first offense. Even if you're worried about the QB situation in 2024 and beyond post-Kirk Cousins, Addison's rookie year production will present many sell windows.

1.08 - Quentin Johnston (WR - Chargers)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: 0)

Johnston is a total freak. It's as if he was built in a lab to create the ideal X wide receiver on the outside. A few decades ago, Johnston's height (6-foot-2) was exactly what teams were looking for in a number-one wide receiver. Things have certainly changed over the years as the ability to create separation and get open, no matter the height, has become more and more important. But that doesn't diminish Johnston's outlook because he offers a unique combination of height and speed. Johnston averaged 19 yards per reception on 115 collegiate catches. He's a big play waiting to happen on every down as he offers exciting yards after the catch ability, including a devastating spin move for a player his size and impressive ball tracking deep down the field. This is a really fun landing spot for Johnston, who lands with the Chargers and will receiver stable and elite quarterback play with Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future. During the 2023 season, Keenan Allen will play at the age of 31, and Mike Williams will turn 29. Neither receiver will be a Charger for much longer, which will allow Johnston the opportunity to truly be a fantasy difference-maker very soon.

1.09 - Dalton Kincaid (TE - Bills)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: +8)

Kincaid landed in the dream spot, skyrocketing his dynasty and redraft values, after Buffalo traded up for him to pair him with Josh Allen as the Bills' new slot receiver. Kincaid amassed tons of experience and production lined up in the slot in college as Utah essentially utilized him as a receiver. He didn't disappoint, producing a 70-890-8 line last year and catching 16 total touchdowns over his final two collegiate seasons. Because of this, Kincaid won't compete for snaps and targets with Dawson Knox as much as many think. And while Kincaid is an older prospect who will turn 24 in October, producing as an older prospect in college isn't as much of a concern at the tight-end position since the transition to the pros is tough for younger prospects, and there are so few difference makers at the position we're looking for anyone who could be one. Kincaid is great at making contested catches and reminds some of George Kittle when it comes to athleticism. Do not expect him to follow the trend of tight ends starting slow when it comes to production early on. He'll produce in year one, and his upside should increase as the season goes along.

1.10 - Zay Flowers (WR - Ravens)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: -1)

Flowers is essentially a Brandin Cooks clone. He's fun to watch as his speed and quickness allow him to consistently get open, which is exactly what teams covet in today's NFL. He'll offer versatility for the Ravens' passing game as he was utilized both outside and in the slot at Boston College. For a smaller player (5-foot-9), Flowers plays very tough and tracks the ball well down the field. This is an exciting addition to a new Ravens offense coordinated no longer by Greg Roman and instead by Todd Monken. Flowers recorded five or more receptions on targets 20-plus yards downfield in all four collegiate seasons. And while he did return for his senior year, which can sometimes be considered a slight negative, it's important to note Flowers caught 56 passes for 892 yards and 9 touchdowns as a true sophomore back in 2020. He's been good for a long time, and we didn't need his senior-year production to tell us that. Look for Flowers to be a "better in best ball" volatile receiver in year one that will make enough highlight real plays to keep his dynasty value afloat for the foreseeable future. That's good since he shouldn't largely be counted on right away in an offense that also includes Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham.

1.11 - Kendre Miller (RB - Saints)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: +2)

Miller has some Arian Foster and Aaron Jones to his game. He has exciting speed and burst for a player weighing 215 pounds. He's a big play waiting to happen once he gets to the edge and is slippery, with defenders struggling to bring him down. Miller is coming off of a monster junior season at TCU, where he carried the load, rushing 224 times for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns and adding 16 receptions for 116 yards. Miller wasn't as involved in the passing game at TCU as we would've liked (only 29 catches in three seasons), but he's capable in that area and has the potential to be a workhorse in the NFL. As the fourth running back selected in the early third round of the draft, we should expect Miller to be relevant right away in his rookie season. And this landing spot is really fun. Alvin Kamara will be 28 this season, projects to be suspended due to ongoing legal trouble, and likely won't be a Saint much longer. And Jamaal Williams is overvalued. Miller should be a major target in all dynasty rookie drafts.

1.12 - Devon Achane (RB - Dolphins)

(Change from Mock Draft 3.0: +3)

Achane measured 5-foot-9 and only weighed 188 pounds at the combine, so the odds of him being given a workhorse role in the NFL and then being able to hold up with that big workload, are low. But Achane will be able to create his own luck in the league because he holds a very valuable trump card: speed. Achane ran a blazing 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine, which wasn't a surprise as Achane is also a track star. Per Pro Football Focus, as a sophomore on Texas A&M's track team, he ran a 10.14-second 100-meter dash, the tenth-fastest time in program history. That speed consistently shows up in Achane's film, as does toughness you wouldn't expect from a smaller back. Achane is a versatile dual-threat who caught 60 passes over his final two collegiate seasons. And he literally just hit the perfect landing spot lottery. The Dolphins only made four total selections during the draft, and head coach Mike McDaniel still prioritized Achane's speed and made it a point to select him in the third round. Raheem Mostert has an injury history and will play the 2023 season at age 31, and Jeff Wilson is a solid committee back but nothing more. Look out, Achane is going to make major waves as a rookie.