Preaching patience is prudent.
After Week 1, the theme is often “random variance happens.”
I did it myself last year, pointing out the outlier producers from 2024 who fell flat that season.
But what the heck. Life is short. Let's spiral!
Flashback to 2025.
Last season had Week 1 performances commonly labeled outliers that proved worth tracking:
- Daniel Jones - QB3 - ADP QB31 - Finish: QB17 - (QB7 prior to Week 14 injury)
- Joe Burrow - QB27 - ADP QB5 - Finish: QB29
- Javonte Williams - RB2 - ADP RB36 - Finish: RB11
- Travis Etienne Jr. - RB5 - ADP RB32 - Finish: RB10
- Omarion Hampton - RB32 - ADP RB14 - Finish: RB36
- Zay Flowers - WR1 - AP WR27 - Finish: WR8
- Mark Andrews - TE49 - ADP TE7 - Finish: TE16
Reacting hard to Week 1 in all of those cases would have worked well. In some leagues, managers could have traded Burrow, Hampton, and Andrews for Etienne, Williams, Flowers, and Jones. Imagine flipping the RB36 for the RB10 & RB11.
In that spirit, let's overreact!
Please note, all overreactions should be practiced safely. This is a conversation between consenting adults best practiced outside of trade negotiations.
Ja'Marr Chase is WR79
Chase closed as the consensus WR1. Puka Nacua’s injury and potential for a suspension created enough uncertainty to drive separation.
Fun fact: there has been a different top overall fantasy scorer at wide receiver every year since 2015, when Antonio Brown went back-to-back. Ten seasons. Ten different top-scoring receivers.
Guess how often the top scorer was the first receiver taken?
Not once.
Remember in late August when Chase went down at practice? After hyperextending his knee, the team assured the public that Chase was fine. Also, remember the talk about the Bengals wanting to slow the pace and play under center more?
Chase has enough of a track record to write the game off. He has historically been quiet in Week 1. The Bengals had built a large lead. The team left openings on the field.
Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland, Kyle Pitts Sr., Harold Fannin Jr., George Kittle, and Terrance Ferguson combine for fewer points than Eli Raridon
We knew Bowers would be out. We did not know the other half of Week 1 starting tight ends would also be absent. Throughout draft season, there was minimal movement on tight end draft tiers. In hindsight, we would have been better served waiting and selecting the players just behind. Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Kincaid, and Juwan Johnson were landing in the backup tight end range of drafts. They are all in the Top 7 of Week 1.
Looking at 2025 tight end ADP provides a sobering reality.
Bowers, Kittle, and LaPorta were three of the top four. Injuries knocked them out. Behind them? T.J. Hockenson was TE6, Andrews TE7, Evan Engram TE8, David Njoku TE10, and Jonnu Smith TE14.
Where did they end up?
Not good.
Andrews: TE16, Hockenson: TE26, Engram: TE29, Njoku: TE32, and Smith: TE35
This is an apples-to-oranges comparison. Those players were all later in their careers, and their ADPs were built off past performances. The players who went at the top in 2026 are ascending talents who carry high draft capital.
That said, the performances of Likely, Goedert, and Kincaid are trouble for early tight end investors. Nothing looked like a fluke. There is a meaningful production difference for many of the running backs and wide receivers who fill Round 2 and Round 3. Early tight ends MUST deliver a difference-making score. Ample options later will dictate a different approach to the position.
We know Week 1 is just the first data point.
Talent in a positive atmosphere will rise.
Patience has a long track record of success.
But 2025 managers who selected Brian Thomas Jr.. 14th overall or Bucky Irving 16th had a very limited window to act.
Time to Roundup Week 1.
Blind Resume
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 60 | 3 | 19 | 3 |
| B | 156 | 5 | 30 | 2 |
| C | 144 | 1 | 19 | 3 |
| D | 102 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| E | 83 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| F | 124 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| G | 102 | 6 | 45 | 2 |
If you followed my work last year, you knew multiple running backs were posting all-purpose numbers that rivaled Hall of Fame fantasy names like Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson. Running backs started red hot again in 2026.
Can you place this production?
Stats Of The Week
Chicago Bears - 59 Points
Chicago & Carolina - 96 Total Points
D'Andre Swift, Chicago - 124 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
Kyle Monangai, Chicago - 100 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
Caleb Williams, Chicago - 269 passing yards, 2 touchdowns / 65 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns
Bryce Young, Carolina - 361 passing yards, 3 touchdowns / 10 rushing yards, 1 touchdown
Jalen Coker, Carolina - 8 receptions, 138 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns
The Bears and Panthers broke the previous record of 88 points, set by the Buccaneers and Saints in a 2018 Drew Brees - Ryan Fitzpatrick shootout.
That type of game will generate some numbers.
Swift and Monangai hit 100 yards in the same game for the second time in their last seven games. The Eagles (Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby) are the only other team since 2022 to have two 100-yard rushers. No, the Lions never did it with Gibbs and Montgomery. Swift and Monangai both scored rushing touchdowns in those two games. Before that, the last time teammates hit 100 yards and scored rushing touchdowns was Dallas in 2019 (Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard).
It was the 10th time in NFL history a team had 3 players with 60+ rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The last was the St. Louis Rams against Chicago in 2013 (Zac Stacy, Benny Cunningham, and Tavon Austin). Jacksonville in 2006 (Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor, and Alvin Pearman) was the only other team since 1998 to do it.
Williams became the 5th Bears quarterback to record 2+ passing and 2+rushing touchdowns. Justin Fields (2022), Jim McMahon (1985), Larry Rakestraw (1967), and Bernie Masterson (1936) are the others.
Young became the third Panthers quarterback with 300+ yards, 3+ passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown. Cam Newton (2017) and Steve Beuerlein are the other two.
Coker became the sixth Panthers receiver with 8+ receptions, 130+ yards, and 2+ touchdowns. Teammate Tetairoa McMillan did it in 2025. Before McMillan, Greg Olson did it in 2015.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore - 144 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns - 125 rushing touchdowns - Passing Marcus Allen for 3rd All-Time
Henry had his seventh career game with 140+ yards and 3+ touchdowns, tying Jim Brown for the most in NFL history. He also tied Brown for the most with 140+ rushing yards and 2+ touchdowns at 16.
He moved past Marcus Allen for sole possession of 3rd on the career rushing touchdown list. Henry’s 125 trails Emmitt Smith (164) and LaDainian Tomlinson (145).
He is 97 yards from passing Eric Dickerson for the 9th most in NFL history.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans - 410 passing yards, 3 touchdowns
Chris Olave, New Orleans - 10 receptions, 182 receiving yards
Shough became the first Saints quarterback since Drew Brees in 2018 to hit 400 passing yards in a game. Brees did it 16 times in his Saints career. Aaron Brooks is the only other Saints quarterback with a 400-yard game.
Olave tied his career high in receptions and established a new career high in yards. The yardage was the most by a Saint since Michael Thomas in 2019 and the sixth-highest total in team history.
Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas - 3 passing touchdowns - 301 career - Passing John Elway for 14th All-Time
Cousins became the 15th quarterback in history with 300 career touchdowns, moving past John Elway into 14th on the career list. Fran Tarkenton is next with 342. Tarkenton’s mark was the NFL record from his retirement in 1978 until Dan Marino broke it late in 1995.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit - 156 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns / 5 receptions, 30 yards
Gibbs recorded his second career 150+ - 2+ - 5+ - 30+ game. He joined Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only players in NFL history to hit those numbers twice. Faulk has the most, with five; Holmes has three, and Tomlinson has two.
Josh Allen, Buffalo - 334 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 23 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo - 5 receptions, 130 yards
Allen had his 7th career game with 300+ passing yards and 2+ rushing touchdowns. Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton did it 3 times.
It was the 9th time he has rushed for 2 touchdowns and thrown for 2 touchdowns. Young (4) and Newton (3) are the only other players to do it more than twice.
Kincaid recorded the third most yards by a Bills tight end. Paul Costa in 1967 has the top two games, hitting 163 and 138.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota - 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 touchdowns - 587 career receptions - Ties Randy Moss for 2nd in Vikings history
Jefferson tied Randy Moss for second on the Vikings reception list. Cris Carter is well ahead.
He equaled his touchdown production for the entire 2025 season. His eight catches tied his second-best game from 2025. His yardage would have been his fourth-best game last year.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas - 44 receiving yards - 7,460 career - Passing Dez Bryant for 5th in Cowboys history
Lamb took a step up in the Cowboys' record books, passing Dez Bryant on the franchise yardage list. Lamb is 362 yards from Drew Pearson and 528 from Anthony Hill Jr. for the next two spots. Lamb is already third on the team’s reception list. Jason Witten (1,215 receptions - 12,977 yards) and Michael Irvin (750 - 11,904) are well ahead.
Dak Prescott threw two touchdown passes. He now sits three away from tying Tony Romo’s Cowboys team record.