Monday NFL Roundup: Week 2

The big reveal.

An offseason of questions and hypotheses boils down to a flurry of 15 games.

It is intoxicating.

At one point during the 7 hours of football and 1 minute of commercials on Redzone, I had to step outside and collect myself. The league accelerates like a 16-year-old leaving the last day of school. We shift from months of speculation and guessing to our first actionable data point.

It could be too actionable.

No weekend elicits as much reaction. Overanalysis is piled on top of analysis, and the need to react is pervasive.

Stop.

Coming out of Week 1 in 2024

• Allen Lazard was WR3.
• Ashton Dulin, Tyler Johnson, and Mack Hollins were Top 36 receivers.
• Jerome Ford - RB13, Zack Moss - RB21, Ezekiel Elliott - RB23, Jamaal Williams - RB25.
• Foster Moreau - TE2.
• Derek Carr - QB6.

We know none of those players shifted leagues in 2025.

Meanwhile:

• Joe Burrow was QB29.
• Jonathan Taylor - RB29. Derrick Henry - RB30. Bucky Irving - RB31. Chase Brown - RB44.
• Ja'Marr Chase - WR31. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR75. Amon-Ra St. Brown- WR77. Terry McLaurin - WR78. Drake London - WR80.

A fantasy team could have been blown out, then never lost another game. The Bengals stack won Bestball Mania. The Footballguys Subscriber Contest winner barely survived Week 1.

This is the most dangerous week for fantasy managers.

That is not to say we can ignore everything. DK Metcalf, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Zamir White, Trey Benson, and Kirk Cousins all had disappointing Week 1s, which turned out to be red flags for their entire season.

Parsing each situation separately is difficult, but a general approach can help identify the real signal:

1. Rookies - We should view rookies as second-half contributors generally. Yes, Emeka Egbuka can debut with a red-hot start. But there needs to be signs that the team has to rely on their production. Or that the team is capable of allowing production.

2. Injuries - We knew Cousins was coming off a significant injury.

3. Team situation - The emergence of Smith-Njigba shifted the team's reliance on Metcalf.

4. Talent - The running back deadzone exists because players we knew were not exceptionally talented were assumed to have no other options. Teams always have options in Week 1.

Sharp managers can lean into the panic and execute trades this week that swing long-term outlooks. Sharp managers can also lean too hard into priors without assessing new information. Proceed with cautious aggression.

Thank you, Nathan Jahnke. I rewatch every game in compiling this article, but without Nathan's ability to deliver consistent breakdowns following the games, this article would be much more difficult.

And now, The Roundup.

Blind Resume

Tight ends have exceeded 1,000 yards 58 times in NFL history. In a 17-game season, a player needs to average 58.8 yards to hit 1,000. A large group of tight ends hit that minimum threshold to pace for 1,000 yards.

Can you name them all?

Stats Of The Week

• 60,000 Passing Yards - QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Stafford became the 10th player in NFL history with 60,000 career passing yards. Dan Marino is ninth on the career list, 1,307 yards away. Marino held the career passing record from 1995 until Brett Favre passed him in 2007. Stafford has a great shot to push Marino to 10th in 2025.

• 66 Rushing Touchdowns - QB Josh Allen, Buffalo - Allen broke Thurman Thomas's Bills franchise record for most rushing touchdowns.  Thomas and Andre Reed are tied with the most career touchdowns, both scoring 87. Allen needs 19 to hit their mark.

• 7 Receptions - TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis / TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland - Warren and Fannin broke the NFL mark for most receptions by a rookie tight end in Week 1. That's an important caveat. In 1987, Keith McKeller played one game as a rookie, with 12 targets and nine receptions.

• 177 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing Touchdowns - RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore - Henry tied Ladanian Tomlinson for the most games with 175+ rushing yards and 2+ rushing touchdowns, with ten. It was Henry's 9th game with over 130 rushing yards as a Raven, trailing only Jamal Lewis's franchise record of 13.

• Whoops. Henry lost 8 yards after he hit 177, falling under 175. Tomlinson still holds the record alone. Go Bills!

• 9 Receptions, 50 Rushing Yards - RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco - McCaffrey already held the record for most games with 9+ receptions and 50+ rush yards at 12. He extended the record to 13. Alvin Kamara is next, with 11. James Wilder has the third most, with 8. McCaffrey also held the record for most nine-reception games by a running back, at 16. Pushing to 17 gives him four up on second-place Kamara.

507 Passing Touchdowns - QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh - Rodgers stands just one touchdown behind Brett Favre's 508 career touchdown passes, the fourth most in history. Rodgers threw four touchdowns in consecutive games for the fourth time in his career. Peyton Manning has the most consecutive four-touchdown games, doing it seven times in his career. Drew Brees has six, and Tom Brady has five. Manning holds the record with five consecutive games of four touchdowns in 2004. 

Backfield Hierarchy

Splitting backfields into key categories based upon snaps and opportunities (rushes plus targets). While carries may be similar, backfields that fall into a Committee with a Lead over a straight Committee saw wide disparities in snap counts.

This feature debuted early in the 2023 season. At that time, there were 11 backfields classified as Bellcows. Now, there are 18.

What is happening?

It's not just a case of talent like Ashton Jeanty hitting the league. Late draft picks like Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have followed Kyren Williams' footsteps in securing these roles. Javonte Williams served as Dallas' Bellcow in his first game.

Some thoughts:

• Coaches have stressed the importance of keeping base personnel. This works hand in hand with the emergence of more two-tight end sets across the league. Keeping base personnel while having the ability to present multiple looks serves to trap defenses between nickel or three linebacker packages. By not substituting, offenses can trap an unfavorable defensive personnel package.

• Wear and tear is different. The days of Ted Washington and Gilbert Brown in the middle of defenses have disappeared as we have a 250-pound “thumper” run, heavy linebackers like Brandon Spikes. A “Jacked Up” segment from 2005 is a marked contrast to what we see on Sundays now. Teams have shifted from striking tackling to emphasize wrapping and a rugby-style approach. While Sundays are still full of lightly protected human car crashes, there seems to be an increased awareness for player safety.

• As part of the different wear, teams have figured out how to lighten the load on running backs. RPOs with quarterback keepers. Screen plays and pop passes that serve as run game extensions. More slot receivers with running back backgrounds have hit the league, shifting the role of the “satellite” back.

• It's a copycat league. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are the gold standard for offensive coaching. Many of the coaches around the league have roots in their system. Shanahan made a significant flip in his system by acquiring Christian McCaffrey. McVay has acknowledged the value in keeping Kyren Williams on the field.

• Fantasy has not adjusted. 2022 was a low-water mark for running backs. Austin Ekeler's 18.8 half-PPR RB1 finish is one of the lowest RB1 finishes in history. The Top 12 RB finish threshold was 12.9, and the Top 12 averaged 15.6. In 2024, three backs beat Ekeler's mark, and 19 backs beat the 12.9 threshold. The average Top 12 RB was 17.2 points.

• Zero-RB drafts are still very trendy. This is problematic on two fronts. First, if fewer backfields are committees, there are fewer “flex” caliber backs to get a ZeroRB team through the weeks that a high-value handcuff does not emerge. Second, if running backs are staying healthy, the assembly line of replacement production shrinks.

• This should be the primary storyline to watch for 2025. If this season mirrors the 2024 season, drafts should shift hard back towards exhausting the Bellcow running back options at the top of draft boards. Dynasty managers have traditionally built around WRs and waited on running back production, but those managers may want to consider aggressively adding cheaper Bellcow options. 

BELLCOWS

• From a rushing standpoint, the summer story about the Falcons having 1A and 1B backs was true. But Robinson dramatically out-snapped Allgeier and was the Falcons' top weapon in the pass game on the day. With Drake London monitoring a shoulder injury, Robinson should continue to maintain a valuable passing role.

• The Chargers' reveal showed a team willing to lean on Justin Herbert and a talented receiving core. This attack allowed Hampton to serve as the Bellcow in his first game. The team is easing Harris back after he missed most of the preseason, but if they are going to lean on the pass, there's little reason to make this backfield a full committee unless Hampton struggles.

• Little changed from the Eagles' Super Bowl-winning formula: run the ball with Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Hurts exceeded 30 pass attempts in Weeks 1-4 in 2024. He topped 28 attempts just once the rest of the year, with 25 or fewer attempts in eight of the ten games—week 1 attempts: 23.

COMMITTEE WITH A LEAD