Why We May Regret Ignoring Kenyon Sadiq

Are We Being Too Dismissive of Kenyon Sadiq?

Despite being the only tight end selected in the first round of the April NFL draft, fantasy managers and the analyst community seem completely disinterested in rostering Kenyon Sadiq as anything more than a late-round TE2. His current ADP makes him effectively available to anyone looking for a late-draft dart throw.

I am not going to say the skepticism is unwarranted; my peers and I largely share the doubts. But from a draft strategy perspective, the more I dig into the situation, the more I come away thinking that if you plan on drafting a second tight end in 12-team leagues, Sadiq may be one of the smartest picks on the board. How many other late-draft TE2s belong to a cohort that historically has a better than 50% chance of finishing in the Top 12? Sadiq, as a first-rounder, fits that exact bill.

The Case for Skepticism

1) Athleticism and Pedigree over Production

Sadiq was a can't-miss high school prospect as a three-sport star and committed to Oregon after a heated recruiting cycle. He appeared in 42 games for the Ducks, flashing the explosiveness and raw athleticism that led NFL draft scouts to project him as an impact starter at the next level.

However, the reality is that Sadiq's on-field college production fell well short of what we are used to seeing from young tight ends who made an instant fantasy impact in recent seasons.

Young NFL Tight Ends: College Production

2) Geno Smith Isn't Very Good

It shouldn't be lost on anyone that Geno Smith has returned to the Jets, where his career started, not as a savior emerging from a breakout elsewhere, but as a cheap veteran with starting experience willing to suit up for a rebuilding franchise.

Geno Smith Career Stats

Notice that after his 2022 breakout in Seattle (where he finished as QB8 on a per-game basis), Smith fell to QB24 and QB19 over the next two seasons, rendering him unstartable for long stretches. He was arguably one of the worst full-time starting quarterbacks in the league last year. Now at 36 years old, he has to adapt to another new roster, coaching staff, and playbook. While Smith's individual outlook is uninspiring, he should at least benefit from decent protection: 

3) Frank Reich Has Probably Lost His Fastball

Frank Reich has had a respectable career and oversaw some solid offensive units earlier in his career. But across eight seasons as an NFL play-caller, his teams have averaged an 18th-place finish in yards and a 17.9th-place finish in points scored. That is squarely below average.

Frank Reich Play-Calling History

4) Mason Taylor Remains

Of all the reasons to doubt Sadiq, this is admittedly the weakest, but it still warrants acknowledgment. Taylor, a second-round pick last year, played 81% of snaps as a rookie and caught 44 passes. Many draft analysts viewed Taylor as a viable long-term NFL starter, and nothing from last season negated that scouting report.

However, New York selecting Sadiq in the first round signals that Taylor is viewed more as a complementary piece rather than an offensive cornerstone. Furthermore, Taylor's 8.4 yards per catch and single touchdown on 65 targets left much to be desired.

5) The Jets Haven't Earned Our Trust

You do not need a history lesson on how inept the Jets franchise has been, but to highlight the organization's recent track record:

• Longest active playoff drought in North American major sports (2010)
• Fewest division titles (two) since the AFL-NFL merger
• Zero Super Bowl appearances since the merger
• 39.4% winning percentage over the last 20 regular seasons (4th worst in the NFL)

The Case for Optimism

1) First-Round Tight Ends Are a Gold Mine

Historical draft capital tells a very clear story at the tight end position: first-rounders deliver, while almost everyone else fails to make a fantasy impact.

Top-24 Hit Rate (%) by NFL Draft Day (2016-2025)

Over the last 10 years, 11 tight ends were selected in the first round. Nine of them (81.8%) finished as top-24 fantasy options, and more than half (54.5%) finished as starting-caliber, top-12 assets.

2) The Jets Receiving Corps Has Questions

Garrett Wilson is an alpha receiver who will command a heavy target share as long as he is healthy. Beyond Wilson, however, the depth chart offers wide-open opportunity:

• Adonai Mitchell: A third-year wideout with an abysmal 43% career catch rate.
• Omar Cooper Jr.: A fellow 2026 first-round pick out of Indiana, and the primary threat to Sadiq's target volume.
• Tim Patrick: A nine-year veteran suiting up for his fourth team.
• Arian Smith: Managed just seven catches in five starts for the Jets last year.

And regarding Mason Taylor, remember that many recent breakout rookie tight ends stepped into rooms with productive incumbents:

• Kyle Pitts Sr. had Hayden Hurst
• Dalton Kincaid had Dawson Knox
• Brock Bowers had Michael Mayer
• Harold Fannin Jr. had David Njoku
• Colston Loveland had Cole Kmet

3) Elite Quarterback Play Isn't Essential

If you passed on Tyler Warren last year because the Colts were deciding between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson Sr., you missed out on an every-week starter. If you let Cleveland's quarterback mess scare you off, you missed out on Harold Fannin Jr.'s great season. Brock Bowers put up a historic rookie campaign catching passes from Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder. Geno Smith may not be elite, but he can push the ball downfield, and the Jets will likely be forced into pass-heavy game scripts while trailing.

4) The ADP Makes Sadiq a Riskless Decision

Sadiq's current ADP sits at TE21 (152nd overall), putting him in the 13th round of 12-team drafts. At that stage of the draft, most players end up on the waiver wire by Week 4 anyway. Late-round picks should be reserved for high-upside lottery tickets. If Sadiq earns immediate targets, you hit on a massive steal. If he doesn't, you drop him for a waiver pickup without second thought.

Look at the historical baseline for TE21s over the last five seasons:

TE21 Historical Performance (2021-2025)

Clearing 5.5 fantasy points per game is a low bar. Sadiq easily has the ceiling to surpass those replacement-level numbers. In fact, history proves that rookie tight ends finish inside the Top 20 far more often than market consensus suggests.

Rookie TEs with Top-20 Fantasy Ranks (2016–2025)

Fifteen different rookie tight ends over the last decade have cracked top-20 status, with four accomplishing the feat just last season. Drafting Sadiq at TE21 isn't paying for his ceiling; it's practically taking him at his floor.

Footballguys Projections

Final Thoughts

I understand the skepticism. Sadiq's college production lags behind other recent early-round tight ends. The Jets' organizational track record is poor, Frank Reich's scheme has been uninspiring, and Geno Smith is in the twilight of his career. If you prefer to play it safe, those factors are reason enough to pass.

However, Sadiq is an elite athletic talent joining an offense with a clear lack of proven receiving depth behind Garrett Wilson. First-round tight ends have delivered top-12 fantasy value over 50% of the time over the past decade. At a 13th-round price tag, you are taking a zero-risk swing on a coin-flip chance at a TE1 starter. That is exactly how you win the end-game of your drafts.

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