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With OTAs in full swing and beat writers back in midseason speculation form, it’s officially time to overreact to everything — responsibly, of course.
Today’s newsletter has you covered:
Gary Davenport breaks down quarterback draft strategy — when to wait, when to strike, and how Superflex turns the whole board upside down.
Clayton Gray digs into NFFC ADP movement, showing which wide receivers are flying up draft boards — and which ones are quietly fading into best ball oblivion.
And we’ve got a wave of camp updates — from Puka Nacua learning from Davante Adams to Jaxson Dart’s climb up the Giants’ depth chart.
Whether you’re building spreadsheets, drafting best ball teams, or just here for the blurb binge, we’re glad you made time for the Update.
Let’s go,
J
PS. In honor of Father’s Day, we’re collecting short stories about the dads, granddads, or father figures who have made fantasy football special. We may feature a few in the Daily Email Update, on social, or in an upcoming article or podcast. Share Your Story 👉
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️ POLL: When drafting quarterbacks, what matters more to you?
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has shown drastically improved footwork during offseason workouts, according to head coach Liam Coen.
Our view: Lawrence has a chance to be the breakout quarterback of 2025 under Coen's tutelage. Coen played a large part in Will Levis's draft stock and Baker Mayfield's career revival, and the team has been aggressive about improving the wide receiver room this offseason. He should be a target if you wait on quarterback or as a QB2 in superflex leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Dyami Brown has been working as one of the top receivers during OTAs, and 'it's increasingly apparent that he figures to play a huge role in the offense' in 2025, according to John Oehser of Jaguars.com.
Our view: The Jaguars new regime loves Brown's ability to make plays downfield, enough to guarantee $9.5 million on a one-year deal. The team also paid a lot to trade up for Travis Hunter and plan on playing him primarily at wide receiver, but Liam Coen's offense will deploy a lot of three-wide sets. Brown has late round value in best ball leagues, but could greatly outproduce that ADP if Hunter has some growing pains. Brown is also a possible upgrade from Gabe Davis, who the Jaguars released, and could help increase Trevor Lawrence's value.
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In the NFL, there's no question that quarterback is the most important position. There are two types of NFL franchises: those that have a franchise quarterback and those that do not. The 16 highest-paid players in the league are all quarterbacks, headlined by Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys at $60 million per season.
Quarterbacks get the cash. The supermodel girlfriends. Most of the awards. They are the kings of the NFL. If your team doesn't have one, you're dead.
In fantasy football, however, it's a different story. Sure, having an elite quarterback on your fantasy squad like Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills or Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens might seem great. Jackson was the overall high scorer in fantasy football a season ago.
But depending on the format, a measure of patience is usually the wiser course of action under center, whether it's waiting for the last "elite" option, waiting a bit longer still for a mid-range option at the position or even engaging in a staredown with your leaguemates to see who will be the last team to draft a starter.
Let's take a look at the differing draft strategies at quarterback--and some values, busts, and sleepers at the position this year.
Quarterback Draft Strategies
Door No. 1: The Elite Guys
According to (admittedly) early ADP information, five quarterbacks are being drafted in the first four rounds of standard formats--Jackson, Allen, Washington's Jayden Daniels, Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts. The earliest (Allen) is coming off the board with the 19th overall pick.
Taking a quarterback that early is usually a mistake.
The reason is one of those fantasy buzzwords that fantasy analysts love so much.
Positional Scarcity.
Now, this is a ridiculously oversimplified take on positional scarcity--astrophysics in crayon. But that doesn't mean it's not accurate. Simply put, if you're playing in a league that starts just one quarterback, then 12 quarterbacks (and tight ends, usually) are in starting lineups each week, as opposed to 24 running backs and 36 wide receivers (not including "flex" spots).
The drop-off from QB1 to QB12 (in terms of fantasy points per game in 2024) wasn't as steep as from RB1 to RB24 or from WR1 to WR36. It was wider than at tight end, but that's because tight end is a post-apocalyptic hellscape in fantasy football right now.
We'll get to that eventually.
Generally speaking, the "edge" you gain by drafting an elite quarterback at ADP isn't as big as the hole you're digging at running back or wide receiver. Sure, if you hit on values in the backfield and at wideout, you can overcome that, and the longer your leaguemates wait to break the seal on the position, the easier it is to justify pulling the trigger. But as a rule, you don't want to be first under center.
Never mind that the first QB drafted and the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback at season's end are almost never the same guy. Allen was the first signal-caller off the board last year, too. He was fourth in fantasy points per game--three whole points per game ahead of Denver's Bo Nix (QB12 in FPPG).
That's not value. Or even especially close.
The Superflex Addendum
Everything I just wrote goes hurtling out the window if you play in Superflex or 2-QB formats. There, it's the NFL. You have a handful of teams smiling as their quarterbacks tear it up. Some others fake a grin and hope that their mid-range options will be good enough. And a bunch of folks weeping quietly into a coffee mug filled with Everclear.
Never mind that in 12-team leagues, there aren't enough starters for every squad to roster three...
The NFL Draft is in the books, and our Rookie Draft Guide is ready. Version 3.0 includes new team fits, depth chart projections, refined scouting intel, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s your complete blueprint for dominating dynasty rookie drafts.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder) is dealing with merely soreness and inflammation after imaging tests revealed that his shoulder is structurally sound, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
Our view: That’s a small consolation for fantasy managers. If Richardson isn't 100% to begin camp, or if the shoulder soreness affects his practice performance, he's almost sure to lose out to Daniel Jones. Richardson's value is as low as it has ever been in redraft and dynasty leagues.
Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. (knee) has a sore knee after colliding with a teammate Thursday, June 6. The injury isn't considered serious, but he is expected to be held out of minicamp.
Our view: As sad as it is for Anthony Richardson's career arc, the latest news that Richardson (shoulder) may not be ready for camp is good for Pittman's fantasy value. Pittman was actually mustering viable numbers with Richardson later in the season, and Daniel Jones should be an incremental improvement, if not a material one, by increasing pass volume and accuracy. Pittman's status as an undervalued wide receiver is intact now that we can dismiss this injury scare.
Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts was reportedly the subject of a phone call between the Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers recently, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.
Our view: It sounds like teams are interested in acquiring Pitts, but only on the cheap, which the Falcons reportedly are not willing to do. Pitts’ value is still at rock bottom in both redraft and dynasty, and a trade to the Steelers wouldn't be good for his fantasy prospects. We'll see if any other former Arthur Smith players are the subject of trade speculation for the Steelers this summer as they try to bolster the passing game for new quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua said he has already felt a 'positive impact' from WR Davante Adams, and Adams has been helping Nacua diversify his releases off the line.
Our view: Adams and Nacua can both be WR1s for fantasy, and Nacua's value can increase in year three even with Adams representing an upgrade from Cooper Kupp. The Rams offense should be better this year if Nacua can stay on the field. They'll also get a full speed Tyler Higbee back after he contributed late last year coming off of an ACL tear.
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan said he has been learning a lot from WRs Adam Thielen and WR Hunter Renfrow during offseason workouts.
Our view: Thielen coming back for one more year should be a good development for McMillan, and 2024 additions Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, even though it complicates the target tree this year. McMillan learning from Thielen and Renfrow could be a sign that the team doesn't plan on only playing him outside even though his size, speed and athleticism make him a natural fit there. Playing big slot would get McMillan better matchups and easier targets, so this is potentially a good thing for his value.
New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart worked with the second-team offense Thursday, June 5, after spending the majority of the time with the third-team previously.
Our view: Dart is unlikely to start Week 1, but this is a sign that he could take over earlier than expected if the season goes south, and perhaps leapfrog Jameis Winston. Russell Wilson - who recently said the team drafting Dart 'doesn't change anything at all' for him - has been getting most of the first-team reps, but he faded quickly after a hot start with the Steelers last year.
Denver Broncos WR Troy Franklin has been performing well in OTAs, according to head coach Sean Payton. 'He can run, and I would say a strength of his is ball in hand after the catch,' Payton said.
Our view: There was some speculation that Franklin could be on the fast track to playing time after he fell to the third day in last year's draft because he played with Bo Nix at Oregon. He did get 52 targets and got on the field for over 400 snaps, but managed just 28 catches for 263 yards. Marvin Mims finished 2024 with a bang and the team took a receiver, Pat Bryant (Illinois), in the third round, so Franklin's role isn't likely to increase much this year.
Tennessee Titans fourth-round draft choice WR Chimere Dike (Florida) signed his four-year rookie contract on Friday, June 6. Financial terms of the deal were not immediately disclosed.
Our view: Dike and fellow fourth round pick Elic Ayomanor both drew positive reviews in OTAs. Their main competition for playing time is veteran Tyler Lockett, who was signed to a one-year, $4 million deal. It wouldn't be surprising to see one or both of them play ahead of Lockett by the end of the season. Dike's speed should be a welcome addition to the wide receiver room.
Seattle Seahawks WR Tory Horton (knee) has been limited during offseason workouts because of a knee injury but is expected to be a candidate for the punt returner job.
Our view: The fifth-round pick will likely have a small role on offense this year, if any at all, but Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the main obstacles on the depth chart long term, so he could be a big part of the pass offense in the next few years. Horton is worth stashing away in deep dynasty leagues.
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