Photo: USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Chiefs at Washington - Over/Under 54.5
• Chargers at Ravens - Over/Under 51
• Cardinals at Browns - Over/Under 48.5
• Cowboys at Patriots - Over/Under 51
• Vikings at Panthers - Over/Under 46.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Colts at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 27
• Packers on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 25
• Bengals on the road against the Lions - Implied Team Total 25
• Rams on the road against the Giants - Implied Team Total 28.75
• Broncos at home vs. the Raiders - Implied Team Total 24

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson is putting together another MVP campaign in 2021. He ranks fifth in passing yards (1,519) and eighth in the league at any position in rushing yards (341). He'll play at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week with an Over/Under set at 51. Jackson being a dual-threat here helps since the Chargers defense overall is decent, but their run defense stinks (31st in run DVOA).

Carson Wentz turned in his best performance of the season last week on Monday Night Football throwing for 402 yards and two touchdowns. This was the first time in Wentz's career he threw for over 400 yards in a game and even though Monday's contest went into overtime, Wentz never touched the ball in the extra period. He seems to be pairing well with his former offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, Frank Reich. He's now only $5,400 at home against one of the worst teams in football. The Texans rank middle of the pack in defensive DVOA (15th).

Joe Burrow's passing yardage numbers haven't been very impressive yet he continues to get it done as he's thrown 11 touchdowns on the season, which ranks eighth-most. Burrow is in a great spot this week to keep the touchdowns rolling against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.

The Cowboys defense has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (397) and the second-most passing yards (1,555) on the season. Damien Harris is listed as questionable and even if he plays, he's not likely to be 100% due to an injury to his ribs. This sets up as a Mac Jones passing day as the Patriots will likely be playing from behind and regardless, will likely decide their best offensive gameplan is to pass anyway. Jones is only $5,200 and after getting close numerous times already, likely hits the 300-yard passing bonus on Sunday.

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt averages a solid 15.2 opportunities per game and that's with Nick Chubb doing his thing and seeing 19 opportunities per game in his own right. Chubb won't play this week and the Cardinals won't have their head coach and offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, or their QB Coach, Cam Turner, who are both out due to COVID-19 protocol. The Browns get to play at home in what is shaping up as a likely Cleveland victory. When healthy, Hunt was a bellcow without Chubb in 2020, and that projects to be the case in this one as well.

Austin Ekeler ranks tied for tenth in the league in opportunities per game (18.4) and is receiving all of the money touches (targets and goal-line carries) in one of the best and most aggressive offenses in football. He gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week and has a favorable matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks 19th in run DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA.

Dalvin Cook has been removed from the injury report and finally, hopefully, will be all systems go in Week 6. Cook ranks fifth in the league in opportunities per game (22.3) and that includes games where he got banged-up as well. The running back is the centerpiece on offense for a Mike Zimmer-coached team and despite Carolina's great defensive start to the season, they are more vulnerable against the run (12th in run DVOA) than the pass (second in run DVOA).

Saquon Barkley got injured early in Week 5 and that led to Devontae Booker playing 60 snaps, running 30 routes, receiving 20 opportunities, and touching the ball 19 times. Booker scored a touchdown both on the ground and through the air and once again projects for a significant workload this week as well. The Giants are at home and the Rams are a middle-of-the-pack defense as they rank 15th in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams leads the league in targets per game (12.2), catches (42), and receiving yards (579). The Adams and Aaron Rodgers connection remains elite and despite the Bears overall solid defensive numbers (fourth in pass DVOA), Adams has projected matchups with Jaylon Johnson, Kindle Vildor, and Duke Shelley according to Pro Football Focus. None of these guys can touch Adams.

Cooper Kupp ranks second in targets per game (11.2), tied for second in receptions (37), and third in receiving yards (523). He has a great matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA.

No Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, or Albert Okwuegbunam means we must project more volume to go Courtland Sutton's way. Despite a mid-week ankle injury prior to Week 5, Sutton still caught seven of 11 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. Sutton's double-digit target projection means he's severely underpriced at only $6,200. The only thing keeping him in the cash section instead of the tournament section is his projected matchup with Casey Hayward, who pro Football Focus currently has ranked as their #1 cornerback so far this season. Still, individual cornerback analysis is largely overanalyzed.

JaMarr Chase can not be stopped. Chase is only averaging seven targets per game yet ranks seventh in the league in receiving yards (456) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (5). He's already proven to be the elite prospect we believed he was and now gets a scintillating matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.

With Christian McCaffrey out once again, D.J. Moore projects to continue taking on a bigger workload. Moore ranks eighth in targets per game (10), fourth in catches (35), and ninth in receiving yards (440). Moore's seven targets last week were actually a season-low after seeing 35 total targets over the three weeks prior. Look for Moore to get back to double-digit targets in this one.

Justin Jefferson is arguably the best Wide Receiver in football and he plays with a competent Quarterback in Kirk Cousins who has the Vikings currently ranked 11th in the league in offensive pass DVOA. Jefferson ranks tied for 14th in the league in targets per game (9) and ranks sixth in receiving yards (462). Clearly, Jefferson is a great play every week but he lands in the cash section because his upside projects to be capped against a Panthers defense that ranks second-best in pass DVOA.

No Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay means Kadarius Toney should once again receive a heavy target share. Toney had a solid game in Week 4, catching six of nine targets for 78 yards. Yet he truly erupted last Sunday, catching 10 passes on 13 targets for 189 yards. Toney is priced at only $5,600 and projects to be in a favorable passing game script with the Giants expected to be playing from behind. And the Rams are an average pass defense as they rank 16th in pass DVOA.

The injury to Quintez Cephus should open up more playing time for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who already has caught 13 of 16 targets for 135 total receiving yards over the past two weeks. It's tough to find players with this solid of a target projection priced at only $4,200 that make sense in cash. St. Brown fits the bill if paying up for studs elsewhere.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz had a solid season in 2020 and has followed that up by boxing out Blake Jarwin for playing time in 2021. Schultz ran 25 routes last Sunday compared to Jarwin's 10. And Schultz has been a focal point of the offense over the past three weeks. He has seen target totals of seven, eight, and eight respectively, and caught six passes in every game while totaling three touchdowns over that span. Operating as the starting Tight End and an integral piece for one of the best offenses in football, Schultz is a solid play yet again this week.

Mark Andrews finally had his blowup game in Week 5 on Monday Night Football catching 11 of 13 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns. The matchup this week with Derwin James minimizes Andrew's upside but he remains an integral part of the Ravens passing offense, which all of a sudden is booming with Lamar Jackson throwing the ball all over the field.

Tyler Higbee continues to play the vast majority of snaps in one of the best offenses in football that ranks third in offensive DVOA and second in offensive pass DVOA. He's priced affordably in favorable matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA. They've also allowed the 13th most fantasy points to the Tight End position according to Fantasypros.

Team Defenses

The Texans have the lowest Implied Team Total (16.5) of the entire week and the Colts get to play at home yet they're priced extremely reasonably at only $3,500. I'll believe Davis Mills' Week 5 performance was legit once I see it more consistently.

The Broncos rank tenth in overall defensive DVOA and get to play at home against a Raiders team likely still trying to figure out how to operate post-Jon Gruden. The Raiders have the fourth lowest Implied Team Total (20) of the week.

If looking to save salary, the Panthers defense ranks second in overall DVOA through five weeks. They get to play at home in this one and Kirk Cousins is a solid Quarterback, but not one that terrifies us when rostering the opposing defense.

GPPs

Quarterbacks