Cracking DraftKings Week 7

Photo: Jason Getz, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Chiefs at Titans - Over/Under 57.5
• Bengals at Ravens - Over/Under 46.5
• Falcons at Dolphins - Over/Under 47.5
• Eagles at Raiders - Over/Under 48.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Cardinals at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 32.25
• Rams at home vs. the Lions - Implied Team Total 33.5
• Packers at home vs. Washington - Implied Team Total 27.75
• Buccaneers at home vs. the Bears - Implied Team Total 30
• Patriots at home vs. the Jets - Implied Team Total 25

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have an incredible matchup this week as they're 17.5 point home favorites against the awful Texans. Houston only ranks 20th in defensive DVOA but surprisingly they rank 11th best in pass DVOA. Luckily, they're a run funnel as they rank 29th in run DVOA and dual-threat Murray can get home in multiple ways.

Lamar Jackson has a tough matchup on paper against a Bengals defense that has been surprisingly solid so far this season yet at the rate Jackson is playing, I'm not sure defensive matchups matter. Jackson ranks 11th in passing yards (1,686) and seventh in the entire league in rushing yards (392). That rushing floor and upside combination is incredible for cash.

The dual-threat Quarterback theme continues with Jalen Hurts. Hurts' season-low DraftKings' points total is 21.8 as his rushing has aided tremendously in his production. Hurts has four rush touchdowns over the past two weeks and now gets to play in an intriguing fantasy game against a Raiders defense that ranks 15th in overall defensive DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA.

This is certainly an odd time to be writing up Tua Tagovailoa in cash since Deshaun Watson rumors are flying left and right. But nothing has happened yet this week and Tagovailoa appears primed to get the start for Miami at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Tagovailoa performed well in a similarly favorable matchup last week, throwing for 329 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars. And he's priced at only $5,500.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry is in the middle of a historic run. After rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2020, Henry already has run for 783 yards and ten touchdowns and has added 16 receptions in only six games. Henry is a must-play in cash against a Chiefs defense that ranks 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 31st in run DVOA.

Darrell Henderson's price tag continues to be a bargain. Henderson ranks ninth in opportunities per game (19.4) and plays in a Rams offense that ranks third in DVOA. This week, he gets to play at home as a 16 point favorite against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 26th in run DVOA.

Leonard Fournette ranks 11th in the league in opportunities per game (18) and has seen 25, 17, and 28 opportunities in his past three contests, respectively. And with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both out, Fournette could be in line for even more volume in a decent matchup against a Bears defense that ranks 23rd in run DVOA. Tampa Bay is 13 points favorite at home.

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the picture last week, Darrel Williams saw 25 opportunities, totaling 89 total yards and two touchdowns. 25 opportunities out of the backfield in Kansas City playing with Patrick Mahomes II is elite usage and one of the most valuable roles in all of fantasy football. Yet Williams still only costs $5,800 in a favorable fantasy game and matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 21st in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ranks second in targets per game (11), tied for first in receptions (46), and first in receiving yards (668). He gets to play at home against a Washington defense that ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Adams could go nuclear here.

Cooper Kupp is straight dominating. He leads the league in targets per game (11.3), ranks tied for first in receptions (46), second in receiving yards (653), and first in receiving touchdowns (7). And he's once again in an awesome spot at home against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.

Chiefs at Titans is by far the best fantasy game of the weekend. The 57.5 point Over/Under is 6.5 points higher than any other game. Tyreek Hill ranks tied for third in targets per game, tied for first in receptions (46), third in receiving yards (592), and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (5). He's in a great spot against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.

Ja'Marr Chase ranks fourth in receiving yards (553) and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (5). He's Joe Burrow's big-play threat in a game the Bengals will likely be forced to throw more than they'd like. That's good news for Chase, in what should be a fun and competitive contest.

Jakobi Meyers ranks 19th in targets per game (8.7) and 12th in catches (36). He's a solid floor play at only $5,300 against a Jets defense that ranks 21st in overall defensive DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA.

Brandin Cooks ranks tied for 12th in targets per game (9.5), fifth in receptions (40), and 11th in receiving yards (481). And the Texans project to once again have to throw a lot as they'll almost assuredly be playing from behind against the Cardinals. Game script should be on Cooks' side in this one.

Jaylen Waddle played on a season-high 93% of the offensive snaps and caught 10 of 13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday. With Will Fuller V missing another game and DeVante Parker listed as Questionable, Waddle looks to be in another great spot this week from a usage standpoint. And the matchup is favorable as well against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ranks tied for first with Travis Kelce in receiving yards (468) at the Tight End position despite seeing 10 fewer targets than Kelce. Yet he's $1,600 cheaper this week. Andrews is a solid cash play in an intriguing competitive division game against the Bengals.

Darren Waller is an extreme mismatch for the Eagles' Linebacking corps. He ranks third at the Tight End position in receiving yards (378) and tied for 16th in the entire league in targets per game (8.8).

Kyle Pitts came on strong prior to Atlanta's bye, catching nine of 10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Jets in Week 5. Pitts was an elite prospect and is an athletic freak who projects to keep getting better each and every week. A candidate for the post-bye rookie bump, Pitts is in a favorable spot against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.

Ricky Seals-Jones has played on 99% and 100% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks, respectively. He is literally operating as the Logan Thomas in this offense and now gets a decent matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd in overall defensive DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA.

Team Defenses

The Cardinals are 17.5 point home favorites against a Texans team with the lowest Implied Team Total (14.75) of the entire week. Davis Mills is still quarterbacking Houston. Enough said.

The Patriots are seven-point home favorites to a Jets team with the fourth-lowest Implied Team Total (18) of the week. Zach Wilson leads the league in interceptions (9) and is tied for the second-most sacks taken (18). He's only played in five games.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Chiefs at Titans is by far the best fantasy game of the weekend. The 57.5 point Over/Under is 6.5 points higher than any other game. Both Quarterbacks have great matchups as the Titans defense ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA and the Chiefs defense ranks 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. Patrick Mahomes II is clearly the better play as he ranks third in passing yards (1,887) and first in pass touchdowns (18) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks second in DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA but Ryan Tannehill is $2,000 cheaper and gets to play at home. Game script could force an upside game out of Tannehill.

Matthew Stafford leads a Rams offense that ranks third in DVOA and second in pass DVOA and ranks fourth in passing yards (1,836) and tied for third in pass touchdowns (16). He gets to play at home against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.

Aaron Rodgers has had a solid season but hasn't posted many high upside games yet. This could be one of those games at home against a Washington defense that has been horrendous so far this year. Washington ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA.

Matt Ryan has thrown for 625 passing yards and six touchdowns over his past two games and now gets to play in one of the best fantasy contests of the week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA. Ryan only costs $5,700, gets Calvin Ridley back, and has Kyle Pitts rounding into form in his rookie season as well.

Running Backs

A.J. Dillon has started to get more run in Green Bay's backfield but that shouldn't alter our perception of Aaron Jones at all since Jamaal Williams was a staple for the Packers playing a similar role the prior few seasons. Jones still ranks 13th in opportunities per game (17.7) and at home as a 7.5 point favorite, this is a blowup spot for the dual-threat Running Back against a Washington defense that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA.

With Christian McCaffrey out the past two games, Chuba Hubbard has totaled 49 total opportunities over that span. Hubbard is receiving elite usage and has a favorable matchup in this one against a Giants defense that ranks 25th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in run DVOA. And with Sam Darnold struggling mightily as of late, look for the Panthers offense to rely even more on Hubbard on the ground and through the air.

D'Andre Swift ranks tied for 13th in the entire league and tied for first at the Running Back position in receptions (34) and has added three rush touchdowns as well. Swift is receiving the most valuable fantasy opportunities in targets and red zone carries, which increases his chances of posting big games. The Rams have a solid defense according to DVOA metrics but game flow could allow Swift to post a big receiving production game.

Chase Edmonds' opportunities have decreased over the past two weeks but that coincided with a shoulder injury he was nurturing. Entering Sunday, Edmonds no longer has an injury designation and thus, projects to receive more chances in an incredible matchup at home against a Texans defense that ranks 20th in overall defensive DVOA and 29th in run DVOA. Edmonds could get there on efficiency thanks to his dual-threat skillset.

Damien Harris' volume is a concern as it's tougher to predict on a week-to-week basis than many of the other Running Backs we consider in DFS. Yet, in tournaments, it's important to embrace volatility when it makes sense. The Patriots are seven-point home favorites against the awful Jets and their beatable defense that ranks 21st in overall defensive DVOA and 17th in run DVOA. If the Patriots control this game as predicted, New England projects to lean on their run game, which would increase the projection for Harris in a big way.

Cordarrelle Patterson played a season-high 59% of the offensive snaps in Week 5 prior to Atlanta's bye and was even crushing on insane efficiency prior to that. Now, Patterson gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA, 26th in pass DVOA, and 19th in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

Chiefs at Titans is by far the best fantasy game of the weekend. The 57.5 point Over/Under is 6.5 points higher than any other game. Both Quarterbacks have great matchups as the Titans defense ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA and the Chiefs defense ranks 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. This is the kind of fantasy game and matchup that can unlock A.J. Brown's ceiling thanks to Tennessee being forced to throw the ball more than they'd like. Brown has posted over 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons to begin his career and he's only seen 84 and 106 total targets in those years, respectively. We know he's a special talent that has produced on efficiency so far so just imagine a world where the Titans actually funnel voluminous targets to Brown. After an exciting second half on Monday Night Football last week where Brown caught seven on nine targets for 91 yards while dealing with food poisoning, I'm predicting the momentum continues on Sunday and we see Brown hit double-digit targets. Incredibly, Brown has only seen double-digit targets twice in his young career. Here are his stat lines in those games: eight catches for 114 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets as a rookie back in 2019 and 10 receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets in Week 17 last season.

No Christian McCaffrey and Terrace Marshall Jr means D.J. Moore projects to be relied upon heavily by his team in this matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 25th in overall defensive DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA. That's exciting since Moore already ranks tied for third in targets per game (10.5), tied for fifth in receptions (40), and seventh in receiving yards (513). And from a tournament perspective, he's had two lackluster games in a row so he'll likely come in at low ownership percentages.

Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both being out for this matchup increases the target projections of both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. That's exciting since the Buccaneers' offense ranks first in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Both are solid tournament plays. If choosing one, it would be Godwin thanks to his affordable $5,900 price tag.

This feels like the Calvin Ridley week. An insanely productive player through three seasons to begin his career, Ridley is coming off of a 1,374 yard and nine touchdown campaign in 2020. Out of sight, out of mind in football DFS since teams only play once a week and Ridley missed Week 5 prior to the Falcons Week 6 bye. Expect Ridley to be low-owned, which is extremely exciting since he ranks tied for third in the league in targets per game. And this is the right matchup to target as Ridley gets a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.

You may have heard it's DeAndre Hopkins' revenge game and sadly Bill O'Brien isn't still coaching the Texans because if so, this would have for sure gone nuclear. But either way, Hopkins likely wants to stick it to his old team for trading him for pennies on the dollar and I see Kliff Kingsbury as the kind of coach who will make it happen. Now, Hopkins' targets are way down this season (Just 6.3 per game) but there are multiple paths for him to ball out at home in a juicy matchup.

Terry McLaurin ranks tied for 12th in targets per game (9.5) and will face a Packers defense without their stud cornerback, Jaire Alexander. Washington projects to be playing from behind in this one which is great for McLaurin who will attack a Green Bay defense that ranks 23rd in overall defensive DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA.

When analyzing Rams' pass-catchers we must first remember Matthew Stafford is lighting the league on fire. Stafford leads a Rams offense that ranks third in DVOA and second in pass DVOA and ranks fourth in passing yards (1,836) and tied for third in pass touchdowns (16). We obviously want pieces of this passing game and Robert Woods has played the most offensive snaps (344) for this team out of all pass-catchers. Cooper Kupp dominated once again last week but Woods actually ran three more pass routes than Kupp in that game. Let's not forget Woods just went 12 for 150 on 14 targets just two weeks ago and this is a phenomenal matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.

The Buccaneers defense is a certified pass funnel. Tampa Bay ranks fifth-best in run DVOA but only 18th in pass DVOA. Most teams aren't even trying to run on them because they understand attacking their currently injured secondary is the best course of action. It remains to be seen whether Matt Nagy will outsmart himself or not but regardless, the affordable price tags on the two Chicago Bears' target hogs are very intriguing. Allen Robinson has the backing of years of solid production and currently, it's actually Darnell Mooney that leads the Bears in targets (39), catches (25), and receiving yards (306).

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce gets to play in the best fantasy game of the week against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. He's the #1 Tight End option on the slate.

After some disappointing showings likely due in part to a banged-up knee, T.J. Hockenson resurfaced in Week 6, catching eight of 11 targets for 74 yards. He projects to continue to be a target hog in an offense lacking talent at Wide Receiver and there should be plenty of passing volume to go around on Sunday as the Lions play from behind against the Rams.

Mike Gesicki has lined up in the slot on 69.1% of his snaps this season. That's the third-highest slot rate at the Tight End position behind only Evan Engram and Logan Thomas. Gesicki is coming off of a nine-target game where he caught eight passes for 115 yards and now gets to play in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. And Gesicki should continue to benefit from injuries around him. Will Fuller V is out once again and DeVante Parker is listed as Questionable.

Zach Ertz has been traded, which means we can now confidently project Dallas Goedert as a near full-time player for the Eagles. Finally. Goedert has tons of talent and now gets to play in a fun fantasy game against a Raiders defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the Tight End position in the entire league according to Fantasy Pros.

Cole Kmet was already playing around 80% of the offensive snaps and now Jimmy Graham has been placed on the COVID-19 list. Playing against the pass funnel Buccaneers' defense, Kmet has a chance to surprise by seeing around eight targets in this matchup. What intrigues me the most is he'll be less than five percent owned and he is priced at only $3,000.

Team Defenses

The Bears have a weakness to attack in the Buccaneers secondary but I'm not confident they'll be able to succeed in doing so. Justin Fields has only thrown for over 200 yards once in four starts. Chicago's offensive line is a weakness and one Tampa Bay's front seven can exploit. The Bears have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (17) of the entire week.

The old Sam Darnold has resurfaced in Carolina. He has thrown six interceptions over the past three weeks and now ranks tied for third in interceptions (7) and tied for second in sacks taken (18). This game is in New York and the Giants are priced at only $2,500.

The Giants offense is incredibly banged up and Daniel Jones reminded us all of what he's capable of last Sunday, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble. This is a good matchup for a Panthers defense that has been good all season long. They rank eighth-best in overall defensive DVOA.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski OUT - Upgrade Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, and Tyler Johnson
• Christian McCaffrey and Terrace Marshall Jr OUT - Upgrade Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson
• Saquon Barkley OUT - Upgrade Devontae Booker
• Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney OUT _ Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton Questionable - Upgrade Evan Engram, Dante Pettis, Collin Johnson, and John Ross
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire OUT - Upgrade Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon
• Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas both OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, DeAndre Carter, and Adam Humphries
• Sammy Watkins OUT - Upgrade Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman
• Latavius Murray OUT - Upgrade Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell, and Ty'Son Williams
• Will Fuller V OUT and DeVante Parker Questionable - Upgrade Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and Mack Hollins
• Taylor Lewan OUT - Upgrade Chiefs D/ST
• Julio Jones Questionable - Upgrade A.J. Brown
• Zach Ertz Traded - Upgrade Dallas Goedert
• David Montgomery and Damien Williams OUT - Upgrade Khalil Herbert
• James White OUT - Upgrade Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling OUT - Upgrade Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Robert Tonyan Jr
• Laremy Tunsil (Texans Left Tackle) OUT - Upgrade Cardinals D/ST
• Frank Ragnow (Lions Center) OUT - Upgrade Rams D/ST
• Quintez Cephus OUT - Upgrade T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, and KhaDarel Hodgee
• Jaire Alexander and Za'Darius Smith OUT - Upgrade Terry McLaurin

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and A.J Brown
• Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
• Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods
• Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, and Mike Gesicki

Flag Plant Plays

• A.J. Brown
• Calvin Ridley
• Darrell Henderson
• Chuba Hubbard