Cracking DraftKings Week 7

Favorite Games

• Chiefs at Titans - Over/Under 57.5
• Bengals at Ravens - Over/Under 46.5
• Falcons at Dolphins - Over/Under 47.5
• Eagles at Raiders - Over/Under 48.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Cardinals at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 32.25
• Rams at home vs. the Lions - Implied Team Total 33.5
• Packers at home vs. Washington - Implied Team Total 27.75
• Buccaneers at home vs. the Bears - Implied Team Total 30
• Patriots at home vs. the Jets - Implied Team Total 25

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have an incredible matchup this week as they're 17.5 point home favorites against the awful Texans. Houston only ranks 20th in defensive DVOA but surprisingly they rank 11th best in pass DVOA. Luckily, they're a run funnel as they rank 29th in run DVOA and dual-threat Murray can get home in multiple ways.

Lamar Jackson has a tough matchup on paper against a Bengals defense that has been surprisingly solid so far this season yet at the rate Jackson is playing, I'm not sure defensive matchups matter. Jackson ranks 11th in passing yards (1,686) and seventh in the entire league in rushing yards (392). That rushing floor and upside combination is incredible for cash.

The dual-threat Quarterback theme continues with Jalen Hurts. Hurts' season-low DraftKings' points total is 21.8 as his rushing has aided tremendously in his production. Hurts has four rush touchdowns over the past two weeks and now gets to play in an intriguing fantasy game against a Raiders defense that ranks 15th in overall defensive DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA.

This is certainly an odd time to be writing up Tua Tagovailoa in cash since Deshaun Watson rumors are flying left and right. But nothing has happened yet this week and Tagovailoa appears primed to get the start for Miami at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Tagovailoa performed well in a similarly favorable matchup last week, throwing for 329 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars. And he's priced at only $5,500.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry is in the middle of a historic run. After rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2020, Henry already has run for 783 yards and ten touchdowns and has added 16 receptions in only six games. Henry is a must-play in cash against a Chiefs defense that ranks 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 31st in run DVOA.

Darrell Henderson's price tag continues to be a bargain. Henderson ranks ninth in opportunities per game (19.4) and plays in a Rams offense that ranks third in DVOA. This week, he gets to play at home as a 16 point favorite against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 26th in run DVOA.

Leonard Fournette ranks 11th in the league in opportunities per game (18) and has seen 25, 17, and 28 opportunities in his past three contests, respectively. And with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski both out, Fournette could be in line for even more volume in a decent matchup against a Bears defense that ranks 23rd in run DVOA. Tampa Bay is 13 points favorite at home.

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of the picture last week, Darrel Williams saw 25 opportunities, totaling 89 total yards and two touchdowns. 25 opportunities out of the backfield in Kansas City playing with Patrick Mahomes II is elite usage and one of the most valuable roles in all of fantasy football. Yet Williams still only costs $5,800 in a favorable fantasy game and matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 21st in run DVOA.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ranks second in targets per game (11), tied for first in receptions (46), and first in receiving yards (668). He gets to play at home against a Washington defense that ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA. Adams could go nuclear here.

Cooper Kupp is straight dominating. He leads the league in targets per game (11.3), ranks tied for first in receptions (46), second in receiving yards (653), and first in receiving touchdowns (7). And he's once again in an awesome spot at home against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.

Chiefs at Titans is by far the best fantasy game of the weekend. The 57.5 point Over/Under is 6.5 points higher than any other game. Tyreek Hill ranks tied for third in targets per game, tied for first in receptions (46), third in receiving yards (592), and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (5). He's in a great spot against a Titans defense that ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA.

Ja'Marr Chase ranks fourth in receiving yards (553) and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (5). He's Joe Burrow's big-play threat in a game the Bengals will likely be forced to throw more than they'd like. That's good news for Chase, in what should be a fun and competitive contest.

Jakobi Meyers ranks 19th in targets per game (8.7) and 12th in catches (36). He's a solid floor play at only $5,300 against a Jets defense that ranks 21st in overall defensive DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA.

Brandin Cooks ranks tied for 12th in targets per game (9.5), fifth in receptions (40), and 11th in receiving yards (481). And the Texans project to once again have to throw a lot as they'll almost assuredly be playing from behind against the Cardinals. Game script should be on Cooks' side in this one.

Jaylen Waddle played on a season-high 93% of the offensive snaps and caught 10 of 13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday. With Will Fuller missing another game and DeVante Parker listed as Questionable, Waddle looks to be in another great spot this week from a usage standpoint. And the matchup is favorable as well against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ranks tied for first with Travis Kelce in receiving yards (468) at the Tight End position despite seeing 10 fewer targets than Kelce. Yet he's $1,600 cheaper this week. Andrews is a solid cash play in an intriguing competitive division game against the Bengals.

Darren Waller is an extreme mismatch for the Eagles' Linebacking corps. He ranks third at the Tight End position in receiving yards (378) and tied for 16th in the entire league in targets per game (8.8).

Kyle Pitts came on strong prior to Atlanta's bye, catching nine of 10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Jets in Week 5. Pitts was an elite prospect and is an athletic freak who projects to keep getting better each and every week. A candidate for the post-bye rookie bump, Pitts is in a favorable spot against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in overall defensive DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.

Ricky Seals-Jones has played on 99% and 100% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks, respectively. He is literally operating as the Logan Thomas in this offense and now gets a decent matchup against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd in overall defensive DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA.

Team Defenses

The Cardinals are 17.5 point home favorites against a Texans team with the lowest Implied Team Total (14.75) of the entire week. Davis Mills is still quarterbacking Houston. Enough said.

The Patriots are seven-point home favorites to a Jets team with the fourth-lowest Implied Team Total (18) of the week. Zach Wilson leads the league in interceptions (9) and is tied for the second-most sacks taken (18). He's only played in five games.

GPPs

Quarterbacks