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And now for something different. In the avalanche of mock drafts leading up to the actual draft, consensus starts to harden, and many look similar. A quick look at the gambling markets leading up to the 2023 draft shows consensus usually has some ground to make up. Will Levis, C.J. Stroud, Tyree Wilson, Christian Gonzalez, and Will Anderson saw dramatically different final placements than the markets suggested.
Trades are a key component to shaking up the expected snow globe, and experts believe we can see multiple deals go down. DraftKings has the line set at over / under 6.5 first-round deals, with over the favorite. So, what teams could move out of the top ten? And who could be coming up? It's time to explore some possibilities.
This draft runs four rounds. Four is largely a random number, but it does get us past 48 “fantasy” rookies selected. At the close of the mock, a brief list of those players broken out by round tiers is provided. Enough to give good depth for early rookie dynasty drafts.
I want to give a special shout out to several people who help this process. First, my dynasty show co-host Christian Williams. Christian is the creative genius behind the Footballguys Rookie Guide and is my safeguard against insanity. Other fantastic draft resources include Dane Brugler's The Beast and The Ringer NFL Draft Show with Danny Kelly, Danny Heifetz, and Benjamin Solak. Move the Sticks with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks. And, of course, Footballguys fans know Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio. As Cecil Lammey says, we are in a golden age of draft coverage.
Round 1
1. Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams (QB - USC)
The pick is all but in. No odds are currently on the board for another option. Caleb Williams will be a Bear.
2. Washington Commanders - Drake Maye (QB - North Carolina)
The odds on this pick have shifted within the last week. Before the Commanders' quarterback sleepover, Jayden Daniels cruised well ahead around -350. BetMGM holds the odds at -125 for Daniels and +100 for Maye.
Maybe I am just doubling down on my Maye take from the quarterback episode of the Footballguys Dynasty Show, but I am sticking with that pick in this mock draft. The similarities between Maye's predraft journey and C.J. Stroud's are striking. Maye was a significant favorite for this pick from February through March. Then, the odds shifted hard towards Daniels. It is not a dissimilar journey to the path between Stroud and Will Levis.
Consider the source. An agent with a gap to close will work harder to spread positive information. I believe what I hear early before the silly season kicks in. But most importantly, I am not convinced there is a wrong selection between the two.
3. Minnesota Vikings - Jayden Daniels (QB - LSU)
- Trade: Pick 3 for Picks 11, 23, 2025 1st
Daniels sitting at three is unexpected, given the recent consensus. Unwinding the recent timeline, reports of the odds shift between Daniels and Maye at the second pick were quickly followed by the first real rumors the Patriots are entertaining moving out of pick three. Those rumors have intensified.
The Vikings are primed for a godfather offer.
Daniels is fun in Minnesota—first, the LSU ties with Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are mired in a contract negotiation with Jefferson and will reset the market. Sources have also indicated the Vikings pushed very hard for Anthony Richardson in the 2023 NFL draft. A dual-threat quarterback with Daniels' deep arm paired with Minnesota's weapons is the highest upside play in the entire draft.
4. New York Giants - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR - Ohio St)
- Trade: Picks 4, 90, 138 (Value: 1,977) for Picks 6, 47 (Value: 2,030)
And here we go. The Giants have been vocal about wanting J.J. McCarthy, and the Cardinals have been open about their willingness to move out of pick-four. A Giants team in desperate need of identity uses that momentum to pull the old switcheroo.
Pick 1.06 is appealing for Arizona, assuming they will pass on Harrison Jr. After that move, they have three options: Harrison Jr., selling J.J. McCarthy, or grabbing their preferred option between Malik Nabers and Joe Alt. Strong options.
Harrison Jr. would be a coup for the Giants. The quarterback position remains a long-term issue, but the team needs a piece like this to allow a quarterback to succeed.
5. Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt (LT - Notre Dame)
The Chargers are the most frequently mentioned trade-down pick. But assuming the Patriots and Giants are willing to pull out of the early quarterback market, there may only be one chair left to accommodate that deal: division rival Denver. Rock, meet hard place.
Wide receiver is the popular selection for the Chargers. But building through the trenches is going to be hard for Jim Harbaugh to pass up. Harbaugh's playing career parallels Joe's father, John Alt, a long-time Kansas City Chief. Alt is exactly the type of tone-setting pick for this new regime.
6. Denver Broncos - J.J. McCarthy (QB - Michigan)
- Trade: Picks 6, 104, 2025 4th for Picks 12, 76, 2025 2nd, Patrick Surtain II
The Broncos have been as heavily linked to McCarthy as any team outside of the Vikings. Here, they make the move. NFL Insider Tony Pauline has mentioned Surtain as a key component in a trade package. The Cardinals again move back out of this spot, grabbing future capital and a defensive centerpiece in Surtain while still staying in position to land a top player.
Maybe the trade for Zach Wilson alters Denver's plan. Yeah, I just read that, too. If a move is on the table, expect the Broncos to be aggressive.
7. New Orleans - Malik Nabers (WR - LSU)
- Trade: Picks 7, 146 (Value: 1,533) for Picks 14, 45 (Value: 1,550)
The Titans are a prime trade-down spot with their potential top pick in Alt off the board. Nabers to the Saints is a fun possibility. The hometown star stays home. His game pairs very well with Chris Olave and would give the Saints arguably the best young receiver combo in the league. And cost controlled to boot.
8. Arizona Cardinals - Rome Odunze (WR - Washington)
- Trade: Picks 8, 109 (Value: 1,476) for Picks 12, 66, 186 (Value: 1,477)
The Cardinals make their move. A key to the draft is inflection points. Knowing when to move ahead of a team to close out a tier. Picks nine with Odunze and ten with Brock Bowers represent those points based upon current odds.
Odunze's physicality is a fun scheme fit for a Cardinals offense currently building identity. Comparisons to DeAndre Hopkins are fair, and coach Jonathan Gannon saw what a physical receiver in A.J. Brown added to the Eagles' offense.
9. Indianapolis Colts - Brock Bowers (TE - Georgia)
- Trade: Pick 9 for Picks 15, 82, 191
With Odunze off the board, the Bears represent yet another pivot pick. I promise the trades are (mostly) stopping now. The Bears hold four picks in the 2024 draft. One of those will be Caleb Williams. If they are not in love with a player, they must move out at pick nine to build more capital.
If a team wants Bowers, the Jets are the current target to beat. Colts coach Shane Steichen spent the early portion of his career around Antonio Gates with the Chargers, then worked in an Eagles offense that featured Dallas Goedert and later career Zach Ertz. Bowers caps a young, upcoming offense.
10. New York Jets - Taliese Fuaga (OT - Oregon St)
The Jets opted for immediate tackle starters in Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. Given Aaron Rodgers' age, the window is now. Long term the position is still a significant need. Fuaga can start his career inside at guard before kicking outside when the time comes.
11. New England Patriots- J.C. Latham (OT - Alabama)
If the Patriots are going to pass on quarterback because their offense is not ready to support development, they have to commit themselves to creating a supportive environment. Locking down the blindside is a start.
12. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner (EDGE - Alabama)
Given the value on wide receiver and offensive tackle early in this class, the Falcons can likely get the same player they want at pick eight with a move down the board. Expect them to target their preferred defensive lineman, between Turner, Laiatu Latu, or Byron Murphy.
13. Las Vegas Raiders - Troy Fautanu (OT - Washington)
Michael Penix Jr. is becoming a popular mock selection here, but Will Levis showed teams are willing to wait on the next tier of quarterbacks while adding a blue-chip position player with their first pick. Fautanu can move throughout the line to feature his best fit.
14. Tennessee Titans - Olu Fashanu (OT - Penn St)
If Alt is off the board, the Titans can move back and operate in the same offensive line tier. Fashanu is a prototype left tackle who can pair with 2023 first-rounder Peter Skoronski on the left side of the line and free agent center Lloyd Cushenberry to build a dramatically improved offensive line.
15. Chicago Bears - Byron Murphy II (DT - Texas)
Similar to Atlanta, the Bears can potentially move back from Pick 9 and still get their target. Murphy is an interior disruptor who pairs well with Montez Sweat as the Bears position themselves to play with leads and pressure the passing game.
16. Seattle Seahawks - Graham Barton (OL - Duke)
This may be a reach considering the other talent still on the board, but Barton is a riser who some believe can play left tackle. The interior of the Seahawks' offensive line is the biggest weakness on their roster. Skoronski, the 11th pick in the 2023 draft, may be an apt comparison. Barton naturally fits into his best spot, given the Seahawks' needs across the line.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars -Laiatu Latu (EDGE - UCLA)
This is the verge of a tier break. Latu could be the first defensive player selected. The Jaguars need to complement Josh Allen and Travon Walker.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Quinyon Mitchell (CB - Toledo)
Mitchell has emerged as the CB1 in the class on many boards, acing every predraft step starting with the Senior Bowl. A corner is not a glaring need for Cincinnati, and they have young players at the position in D.J. Turner and Cam Taylor-Britt, but if the board falls this way, the Bengals find themselves in no man's land. Mitchell represents the best value at a premium position.
19. Los Angeles Rams - Brian Thomas Jr. (WR - LSU)
I know, I know, the Rams re-signed DeMarcus Robinson. They also have Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, so selecting a wide receiver would give them more than one good receiver. But Sean McVay has not drafted in the first round since 2016 and will want a new toy. Thomas Jr. is a fantastic complement for Kupp and Nacua, allowing the two of them to work underneath and intermediate while he can focus on stressing defenses vertically.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Amarius Mims (OT - Georgia)
The Steelers selected Mims' teammate Broderick Jones in the first round in 2023, easing him in via the right tackle position. It is time for him to move into his long-term home on the left side. Mims is a massive tackle who can help the team reestablish physicality in the run game.
21. Miami Dolphins - Jared Verse (EDGE - Florida St.)
Miami selects the best player available. Verse could go well before this slot, but with Jaelen Phillips coming off a season-ending knee injury, his versatility fits well and gives Miami multiple potential looks up front.
22. Philadelphia Eagles - Terrion Arnold (CB - Alabama)
The Eagles seem to be blessed with landing a player many thought would be gone well before in every draft. Arnold was a popular top-ten option in early mock drafts. The Eagles would be thrilled with him at 22. He possesses the type of lockdown coverage ability the Eagles have needed from their corners and badly lacked in 2023.
23. New England Patriots - Adonai Mitchell (WR - Texas)
Continuing the theme of creating an environment for a young quarterback, the Patriots take the top remaining receiver on the board. Mitchell is one of the most polarizing players in this class, and the Patriots are a blank slate for the first time in two decades with Bill Belichick gone. Their free agent moves pointed towards continuing with "The Patriot Way." As a former quarterback, Mitchell is the type of well-rounded player the Patriots have targeted in the past.
24. Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Guyton (OT - Oklahoma)
The Cowboys suddenly have needs after a run as one of the most successful franchises in the past couple of regular seasons. Guyton is a bit of a project, which holds him back from the top tier of linemen, but Dallas has to add talent up front.
25. Green Bay Packers - Cooper DeJean (CB - Iowa)
The Packers have several secondary needs. DeJean is a versatile defensive back capable of filling in where he is best suited. The team needs players capable of generating turnovers and DeJean thrives in that role.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Nate Wiggins (CB - Clemson)
The Buccaneers traded Carlton Davis to Detroit and reset their salary commitment at the position. Wiggins's length fits their coverage scheme.
27. Arizona Cardinals - Chop Robinson (EDGE - Penn St.)
The Cardinals have lacked the type of edge rush in Jonathan Gannon's scheme he enjoyed with players like Hassan Reddick. Robinson's athleticism allows him to work in that type of role.
28. Washington Commanders - Jordan Morgan (OL - Arizona)
- Trade: Picks 28, 128, 160 (Value: 731.4) for Picks 36, 78, 222 (Value: 742.6)
The top-tier tackles are thinning quickly, and Washington must address the position to give their new franchise quarterback a chance at success. Buffalo likes to move around the board and this trade lets them operate in a similar talent tier.
29. Detroit Lions - Marshawn Kneeland (EDGE - Western Michigan)
Perhaps a surprise pick, but that's what the Lions do in the draft. Kneeland's size and athleticism combo create versatility as the Lions continue to accumulate young talent at blue-chip positions.
30. Baltimore Ravens - Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB - Alabama)
The Ravens' corner group is starting to age, and McKinstry can reset that clock.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Xavier Worthy (WR - Texas)
Kyle Shanahan has to have noticed his friend Mike McDaniel's ability to create mismatches with speed in Miami. The 49ers have the most talented skill group in the league, but none are younger than 26 and Brandon Aiyuk has made his displeasure with his contract status known. Worthy gives the 49ers offense a different element and defensive coordinators nightmares.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Darius Robinson (EDGE - Missouri)
The Chiefs have been consistent with their early picks, focusing on adding a pass rush to compete against the other young top-end quarterbacks in the AFC. Many want a wide receiver here, but the talent fall off between the two positions before pick 64 favors continuing to add pass rush.
Round 2
33. Las Vegas Raiders - Michael Penix Jr. (QB - Washington)
- Trade: Picks 33, 101 (Value: 676) for Picks 44, 77, 208 (Value: 673.2)
34. New England Patriots - Jer'Zhan Newton (DT - Illinois)
35. Arizona Cardinals - Mike Sainristil (CB - Michigan)
36. Buffalo Bills - Zach Frazier (C - West Virginia)
37. Los Angeles Chargers - Jackson Powers-Johnson (C - Oregon)
38. Tennessee Titans - Kris Jenkins (DT - Michigan)
39. Carolina Panthers - Ladd McConkey (WR - Georgia)
40. Washington Commanders - Keon Coleman (WR - Florida St.)
41. Green Bay Packers - Patrick Paul (OT - Houston)
42. Houston Texans - Braden Fiske (DT - Florida St.)
43. Atlanta Falcons - Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB - Missouri)
44. Carolina Panthers - Xavier Legette (WR - South Carolina)
45. Tennesse Titans - Ja'lynn Polk (WR - Washington)
46. Indianapolis Colts - Tyler Nubin (S - Minnesota)
47. Arizona Cardinals - Christian Haynes (OG - Connecticut)
48. Jacksonville Jaguars - Cooper Beebe (OG - Kansas St.)
49. Cincinnati Bengals - Troy Franklin (WR - Oregon)
50. Philadelphia Eagles - Kingsley Suamataia (OT - BYU)
51. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ricky Pearsall (WR - Florida)
52. Los Angeles Rams - Chris Braswell (EDGE - Alabama)
53. Buffalo Bills - Roman Wilson (WR - Michigan)
- Trade: Pick 53 (Value: 370) for Picks 60, 133 (Value: 339.5)
54. New York Giants - Bo Nix (QB - Oregon)
- Trade: Picks 54, 206 (Value: 369) for Picks 70, 90 (Value: 380)
55. Miami Dolphins - Brandon Coleman (OT - TCU)
56. Dallas Cowboys - Jonathon Brooks (RB - Texas)
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Edgerrin Cooper (LB - Texas A&M)
58. Green Bay Packers - Junior Colson (LB - Michigan)
59. Houston Texans - Payton Wilson (LB - North Carolina St)
60. Philadelphia Eagles - Adisa Isaac (EDGE - Penn St)
61. Detroit Lions - Andru Phillips (CB - Kentucky)
62. Baltimore Ravens - Malik Washington (WR - Virginia)
63. San Francisco 49ers - T.J. Tampa (CB - Iowa St.)
64. Kansas City Chiefs - Jaden Hicks (S - Kansas City)
Round 3
65. Carolina Panthers - Ruke Orhorhoro (EDGE - Clemson)
66. Atlanta Falcons - Jonah Elliss (EDGE - Utah)
67. Washington Commanders - Javon Bullard (S - Georgia)
68. New England Patriots - Kiran Amegadjie (OT - Yale)
69. Los Angeles Chargers - Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE - Texas)
70. Cleveland Browns - Kamari Lassiter (CB - Georgia)
71. Arizona Cardinals - Trey Benson (RB - Florida St.)
72. New York Jets - Cole Bishop (S - Utah)
73. Detroit Lions - Javon Baker (WR - Western Kentucky)
74. Atlanta Falcons - Michael Hall (DT - Ohio St.)
75. Chicago Bears - Jalen McMillan (WR - Washington)
76. Arizona Cardinals - Malachi Corley (WR - Western Kentucky)
77. Carolina Panthers - Marshawn Lloyd (RB - USC)
78. Buffalo Bills - Jaylen Wright (RB - Tennessee)
79. Atlanta Falcons - Jermaine Burton (WR - Alabama)
80. Cincinnati Bengals - Blake Corum (RB - Michigan)
81. Seattle Seahawks - Bralen Trice (EDGE - Washington)
82. Chicago Bears - Max Melton (CB - Rutgers)
83. Los Angeles Rams - Theo Johnson (TE - Penn St.)
84. Pittsburgh Steelers - Khyree Jackson (CB - Oregon)
85. Cleveland Browns - Brandon Dorlus (DT - Oregon)
86. Houston Texans - Christian Mahogany (OG - Boston College)
87. Dallas Cowboys - Audric Estime (RB - Notre Dame)
88. Green Bay Packers - Dominick Puni (OL - Kansas)
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tanor Bortolini (OL - Wisconsin)
90. Cleveland Browns - Jared Wiley (TE - TCU)
91. Green Bay Packers - Austin Booker (EDGE - Kansas)
92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ben Sinnott (TE - Kansas St)
93. Baltimore Ravens - Roger Rosengarten (OL - Washington)
94. San Francisco 49ers - Blake Fisher (OT - Notre Dame)
95. Kansas City Chiefs - Devontez Walker (WR - North Carolina)
96. Jacksonville Jaguars - Johnny Wilson (WR - Florida St.)
97. Cincinnati Bengals - T'Vondre Sweat (DT - Texas)
98. Pittsburgh Steelers - Sedrick Van Pran (OL - Georgia)
99. Los Angeles Rams - Kamren Kinchens (S - Miami)
100. Washington Commanders - Cade Stover (TE - Ohio St)
Round 4
101. Las Vegas Raiders - Will Shipley (RB - Clemson)
102. Seattle Seahawks - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S - Texas Tech)
103. New England Patriots - Spencer Rattler (QB - South Carolina)
104. Denver Broncos - Tip Reiman (TE - Illinois)
105. Los Angeles Chargers - Braelon Allen (RB - Wisconsin)
106. Tennessee Titans - Malik Mustapha (S - Wake Forest)
107. New York Giants - Caelen Carson (CB - Wake Forest)
108. Minnesota Vikings - Zak Zinter (G - Michigan)
109. Arizona Cardinals - Jarvis Brownlee (CB - Louisville)
110. Los Angeles Chargers - Cornelius Johnson (WR - Michigan)
111. New York Jets - Jalen Coker (WR - Holy Cross)
112. Las Vegas Raiders - D.J. James (CB - Auburn)
113. Baltimore Ravens - Mason McCormick (OL - South Dakota St.)
114. Jacksonville Jaguars - Calen Bullock (S - USC)
115. Cincinnati Bengals - Maason Smith (DT - LSU)
116. Jacksonville Jaguars - Kris Abrams-Draine (CB - Missouri)
117. Indianapolis Colts - Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (LB - Clemson)
118. Seattle Seahawks - Tanner McLachlan (TE - Arizona)
119. Pittsburgh Steelers - Tommy Eichenberg (LB - Ohio St.)
120. Philadelphia Eagles - Leonard Taylor (DT - Miami)
121. Denver Broncos - Beaux Limmer (OL - Arkansas)
122. Chicago Bears - Mekhi Wingo (DT - LSU)
123. Houston Texans - Tykee Smith (S - Georgia)
124. San Francisco 49ers - Isaiah Adams (OL - Illinois)
125. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tyrone Tracy (RB - Purdue)
126. Green Bay Packers - Cam Hart (CB - Notre Dame)
127. Houston Texans - Jalyx Hunt (EDGE - Houston Christian)
128. Washington Commanders - Christian Jones (OT - Texas)
129. Minnesota Vikings - Ryan Flournoy (WR - Southeast Missouri St)
130. Baltimore Ravens - Brennan Jackson (EDGE - Washington St.)
131. Kansas City Chiefs - Brenden Rice (WR - USC)
132. San Francisco 49ers - Gabe Hall (DT - Baylor)
133. Philadelphia Eagles - Trevin Wallace (LB - Kentucky)
134. New York Jets - Bucky Irving (RB - Oregon)
135. San Francisco 49ers - Sione Vaki (S - Utah)
Quarterbacks Mock Drafted in the First 4 Rounds
Round 1
Round 2
Round 4
Running Backs Mock Drafted in the First 4 Rounds
Round 2
Round 3
- Trey Benson
- Marshawn Lloyd
- Jaylen Wright
- Blake Corum
- Audric Estime
Round 4
- Will Shipley
- Braelon Allen
- Tyrone Tracey
- Bucky Irving
Wide Receivers Mock Drafted in the First 4 Rounds
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
- Malik Washington
- Javon Baker
- Jalen McMillan
- Malachi Corley
- Jermaine Burton
- Johnny Wilson
- Devontez Walker
Round 4
Tight Ends Mock Drafted in the First 4 Rounds
Round 1
Round 3
Round 4
