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J
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Draft Capital Matters: Rookie Tight Ends – Jason Wood asks a simple question: Why do only first-round rookie TEs deliver? His decade-long data makes the answer clear.
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Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
🗳️POLL: Who Will Lead the Browns’ QB Room in Fantasy Points?
Cleveland Browns QBs Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders will not each get 25% of the reps during offseason work or training camp, according to head coach Kevin Stefanski.'The big thing for us is making sure that we give the guys enough reps that they need. ... It is not going to be everybody getting 25% of these reps. That is not how it is going to be. We want to give everybody enough reps where we can learn more about them and prepare them to get ready to play,' Stefanski told ESPN Cleveland.
Our view: Flacco is likely to (now) get the most starter's reps. Pickett could get some more work with rookies Gabriel and Sanders getting clean up duty. Any of these four could start for the team at some point this year, perhaps even all are in play for the Week 1 job. It's a bit of a mess, and if you're a guy like Sanders there is little room for error since the reps merely won't be there to start.
Free-agent QB Aaron Rodgers (Jets) could sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the next week or two, in the opinion of ESPN's Adam Schefter.'My guess is, he's going to wind up going (to the Steelers). We've heard Art Rooney, the team owner, say he expects Aaron Rodgers to sign there - and they have a mandatory minicamp from June 10 to 12. I would think that Rodgers is on the table here in the next week or so,' Schefter said during a recent appearance on ESPN Milwaukee's 'Jen, Gabe, and Chewy' podcast.
Our view: Steelers owner Art Rooney II said the team will wait "a little while longer" for Rodgers. Patience may be wearing thin in Pittsburgh, but Rodgers is their best option of what's out there. They only have Mason Rudolph and rookie Will Howard as starting options this year...until Rodgers signs...if he signs.
Draft Capital Matters: Rookie Tight Ends by Jason Wood
By Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys
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If You're Not (A) First, You're Last
If you're reading this, there's a good chance you love football. Our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL Draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
Historically, it was easy to ignore rookie tight ends. The positional demands of learning blocking schemes and route-running meant a prolonged adjustment process. Many of the NFL's all-time best tight ends struggled to make their mark as rookies:
But something strange has happened over the last two seasons. Not only did rookie tight ends make a fantasy impact, they ranked No. 1 overall at the position:
Here's the good news: unlike the other fantasy skill positions, cracking the rookie tight end code is easy. If they weren't a first-round draft pick, you can probably ignore them.
Numbers Don't Lie
145 tight ends were drafted from 2015 to 2024 (10 seasons).
15 of those (10%) finished in the Top 24, which is the threshold for full-season fantasy relevance in 12-team leagues that start one tight end plus at least one flex spot.
Only 5 (3%) finished as top-12 fantasy tight ends.
7 of 15 (47%) were first-round picks.
4 (27%) were drafted in the second round.
1 (7%) was a third-rounder.
2 (13%) were fourth-round picks.
1 (7%) was a fifth-round pick.
0 (0%) sixth-rounders ranked.
0 (0%) seventh-rounders ranked.
0 (0%) undrafted rookie free agents ranked.
For further context, here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie wide receivers, by round:
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan is 'that guy,' according to fellow receiver and new teammate Adam Thielen.'He's a big long receiver that has phenomenal body control and can make contested catches and can play a lot of different spots, which, in this league, in my opinion, to be a great receiver in this league, you have to be able to play in the slot, you have to be able to play outside, you have to be able to run a lot of different routes and make contested catches. So, from the little I've seen, he's that guy,' Thielen told the team's website recently.
Our view: It's high praise from a veteran like Thielen, and for good reason; McMillan might be the best wide receiver from this draft class. He's got a dash of Mike Evans to his game, and McMillan can win in many different ways. With McMillan's natural talent (and his big body being a red zone threat), Fantasy GMs like him as a WR3/WR4 with upside.
New Orleans Saints WRs Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Chris Olave (head) 'look completely recovered' from their season-ending injuries last season, according to Matthew Paras of The Times-Picayune.
Our view: Good news for the Saints here. Shaheed suffered a meniscus injury last year that was repaired in mid-October. Olave suffered his fifth recorded concussion in early November (his second of the 2024 season) and was shut down after that. When healthy, Shaheed and Olave are dangerous with breakaway speed and field-flipping ability.
Free-agent RB J.K. Dobbins (Chargers) has 'the size and rushing style that would complement D'Andre Swift will and add a physicality to the attack that's beneficial to (head coach) Ben Johnson's scheme,' according to Scott Bair of the Marquee Sports Network. Bair also believes that Dobbins is 'a safer bet' to sign with the team than former Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb.
Our view: The Bears are looking to add more talent to their running backs room, and Dobbins could be that guy. He's a seasoned veteran coming off a good season with the Chargers where he had 905 yards rushing and nine rushing touchdowns. The Bears have until July 22nd to sign Dobbins because the Chargers put an unrestricted free agent tender on him and will have 'exclusive negotiating rights' after that date.
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We’re collecting stories from our community about home leagues across the globe— and we’d love to hear about yours. Whether it's a 20-year rivalry, a ridiculous draft-day ritual, or the punishment no one wants to earn, we want to know what makes your league special.
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New Orleans saints QB Tyler Shough and QB Spencer Rattler are splitting snaps with the first-team offense during offseason workouts, according to head coach Kellen Moore.
Our view: Saints QB Jake Haener (oblique) suffered an oblique strain Wednesday and will likely be out of action until training camp. Shough is the rookie who could win the starting job. Rattler was the late-round pick from a year ago that had some buzz around him coming into the league. We'll see these two battle it out in training camp and the preseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren will likely not sign with the team once his rookie contract expires at the end of the 2025 season, in the opinion of Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Gerry Dulac.
Our view: We'll see what Warren can do this season. He's going to be working in a RBBC with 2025 second-round pick Kaleb Johnson. While Johnson is a hammer as a runner (think Demarco Murray), Warren is an efficient player who can work as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. It's tough to get paid as a running back in this league, and Warren may not be as dynamic at the position as the team wants.
Las Vegas Raiders DE Maxx Crosby told reporters on Friday, May 23, that he is playing at '100 percent and (with) no hesitation' after undergoing ankle surgery this offseason.
Our view: The Raiders are happy with this update. Crosby totaled 7.5 sacks for the Raiders in 12 games last season before suffering an ankle injury that required surgery. Earlier this offseason, the Raiders signed Crosby to a three-year, $106.5 million contract extension. Having him at full strength is a huge boost for the Raiders defense in 2025 playing in a division with great quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Bo Nix.
That’s it for today. Thanks for spending part of your day with us.
As we head into Memorial Day weekend, we’re grateful. Not just for football, but for the freedom and community we get to enjoy together. Whether you’re firing up the grill, hitting the road, or mock drafting on your phone under the table, we’re glad to be part of your world.
Thanks for being a Footballguy.
We’ll see you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
Joe Bryant
Guide
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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We Help You Win More At Fantasy Football
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