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Howdy Reader,
Happy Father's Day Weekend - the only time of year when Dad scores a card and earns a pass to obsess over linebacker rotations without judgment. Let’s talk puzzling ADPs, defensive overhauls, and the early signals from high-stakes leagues.
We lead off with Clayton Gray, who dug into NFFC’s high-stakes drafts to see which ADPs are shifting as the buy-ins go up. Then Sigmund Bloom flags 12 ADPs that just don’t add up - and savvy drafters know those mismatches mean value.
Finally, Tripp Brebner III dissects Atlanta’s new defense under Jeff Ulbrich. You won’t want to miss how it impacts Divine Deablo, Jalon Walker, and Jessie Bates III. And as always, our Sigmund Bloom delivers all the News and Notes you need to know.
Let’s kick this off,
J
PS. Still drawing up a play for Father’s Day? We’ve got one. Our Custom Father's Day Card Generator lets you send Dad a football-themed thank-you. Just a few clicks and a personal message give you a clean route to Dad's inbox. Check out the designs below - custom-built for the GOATs who taught us the ropes.
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Crush Father's Day With A Footballguys Father's Day Card
Introducing the Footballguys Father’s Day Card Generator!
Father's Day is almost here, and y'all loved our Mother's Day Card Generator so much that we decided to run it back for Dad.
- Pick a design
- Write a message
- We’ll send it straight to the Father Figure in your life's inbox.
It’s quick, easy, and way cooler than a last-minute tie.
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What's New At Footballguys
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📣 Voice Of The Footballguy 🎤
📊 POLL RESULTS: In our last issue of the Daily Update, we asked you Footballguys:
Which rookie RB takes control of his backfield first?
And the Footballguy says: I trust TreVeyon Henderson more than the Patriots do.
TODAY: Clayton Gray’s deep dive into how player values are shifting in high-stakes NFFC drafts reveals one clear trend — quarterbacks are climbing.
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
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| 🗳️ POLL: Which overvalued player’s ADP is the hardest to justify? |
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Washington Commanders WR Noah Brown (undisclosed) is scheduled to undergo an MRI after being carted off the field during practice Wednesday, June 11, according to head coach Dan Quinn.
Our view: We're still waiting for the results here. The team traded for Deebo Samuel to be the #2 receiver, but also gave Brown almost $2.5 million guaranteed on his one-year deal to return and be the #3 receiver. Any time he misses will give 2024 third round pick Luke McCaffrey and 2025 fourth round pick Jaylin Lane a chance to shine. Both have had good offseasons to date and should have momentum going into training camp. Veterans KJ Osborn and Michael Gallup are also vying for roster spots at wide receiver.
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Free-agent RB Cam Akers (Vikings) agreed to terms with the New Orleans Saints Friday, June 13, according to a source. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.
Our view: Akers participated in the team's minicamp this week on a tryout basis. He joins Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, Devin Neal, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the running backs room. Akers, 25, spent last season with the Texans and Vikings. Between the two teams, he rushed for 444 yards and two touchdowns on 104 carries and added 14 catches for 68 yards and three touchdowns. Akers is unlikely to cut into Kamara's workload, but he could move into the rotation behind the starter. We'll watch for more when camp opens.
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12 Fantasy Football ADPs That Don't Make Sense
By Sigmund Bloom - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Knowing ADP is one of the most underrated fantasy football skills. Most importantly, it gives you an idea of when you can expect players to go off of the board, but it also gives you a window into the level of skepticism or faith that the fantasy football hive mind has in each player's ability to meet or exceed what they have done in the past, especially in 2024. With that in mind, there are players whose ADPs don't align with their past performance and projected future. Knowing where the gaps are between perception and reality is what fantasy draft season is all about. Which ADPs don't make sense?
NOTE: All ADPs from Footballguys Consensus ADP, distilled from multiple crystal clear ADP mountain streams
Mayfield is giving a scoring level in the range of the five quarterbacks going ahead of him at a two-plus round discount. Why is the fantasy hive mind skeptical about Mayfield picking up where he left off? Offensive coordinator Liam Coen did take a head coaching job in Jacksonville. The Bucs replaced him by promoting passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. So far, it sounds like he wants even more downfield passing. If you are fading Mayfield because of Coen, you better be in on Trevor Lawrence, who will be the beneficiary of Coen's leadership. Mayfield also got even better after Dave Canales left for Carolina. Is it personnel? Mayfield actually gained a very polished receiver in Emeka Egbuka, who should be an instant contributor. Remember, Mayfield also finished as QB4 last year, even though he didn't have Chris Godwin for half of the season. There were two weeks that Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, and Trey Palmer were his starting receivers. So there's hidden upside if everyone can stay healthy. The Bucs are one of the most stable offenses in the league, and there is reason for optimism that this year can be even better. Invest with confidence.
Baker Mayfield Verdict: Smash
It is easy to forget that Jones was a low-end fantasy QB1 in 2022 with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as his top three wideouts because he ran for over 700 yards and seven scores. This is important to note because his new team has used the quarterback as a runner by design (although with disastrous results). Anthony Richardson's shoulder is acting up, so Jones is likely to start Week 1, and we'll see where it goes from there. He'll have a better supporting cast of wide receivers and could benefit from a fresh start. Jones' short stint studying under Kevin O'Connell could also help him right the ship. Even if he's a failure again, Jones has demonstrated fantasy relevance, and Richardson's rocky offseason should be enough for Jones to be significantly earlier than his dirt-cheap early ADP.
Daniel Jones Verdict: Smash
Brown was a borderline first-round pick in fantasy value terms after Zack Moss went out last year. Fantasy drafters are still letting him drop to the third round. Was it that the Bengals brought back Moss? He took a pay cut from $3.4 to $1.7 million, with only $375,000 guaranteed. He's not even a sure thing to make the roster, and the Bengals certainly aren't signalling optimism about his outlook. Samaje Perine? The Bengals guaranteed $400,000 of his $1.8 million salary. That doesn't scream "core contributor". Sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks is a Matt Waldman favorite, a great late dynasty rookie pick, and a potential important player in redraft leagues if Brown goes down. But he's no threat to Brown's status as the feature back. This is a high-octane offense, and Brown is heavily involved in the passing game. Brown's ADP allows you to wait until the early third to take your RB1 and still feel like you can hang with the teams that took running backs in the top five.
Chase Brown Verdict: Smash
CONTINUED...
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📺 Trivia Night LIVE - Coming Attractions!
Check out what we have coming up on the next four weeks of Trivia NIght Live! You can join in on the fun every Monday Night at 9 PM ET on the Footballguys LIVE YouTube page!
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3. NYJ: Breece Hall to stay busy?
Source: The Athletic - Zack Rosenblatt
New York Jets RB Breece Hall could be the 'No. 2 option' in the passing game, in the opinion of Zack Rosenblatt.
Our view: Hall has fallen from the top five of 2024 drafts to the third round of 2025 drafts, largely because of the suggestion by head coach Aaron Glenn that there will be a three-headed backfield with Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis. He also said today that he was playing through a "pretty serious" knee injury last year, but one that did not require surgery. So it's possible we still haven't seen him return all the way to form after a 2022 ACL tear. If Hall can separate from the younger backs and become the clear lead back again, he could be one of the best picks of the draft, but if he doesn't, he might not even be startable. While this is an optimistic report, it might not be difficult to be the second option in the Jets passing game this year with lackluster options at wide receiver behind Garrett Wilson.
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4. BUF: James Cook wants to stay with team
Source: WKBW - Matthew Bove
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook said he hopes to receive a contract extension and wants to remain with the team for a long time. General manager Brandon Beane said he has talked with Cook several times this week and expects Cook to report for training camp.
Our view: Cook showed up for OTAs, so we don't have to worry about a holdout here. His low RB1 value was based in part on a high touchdown rate, but he is being drafted as an RB2 and the Bills offense is still likely to be one of the highest scoring units in the league. Cook is a safe pick at his current ADP.
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5. PIT: Calvin Austin in line for big role
Source: SteelersWire - Andrew Vasquez
Pittsburgh Steelers WR Calvin Austin is the team's No. 2 receiver at this point, according to wide receivers coach Zach Azzanni.
Our view: The Steelers passing game is not a good place to look for hidden gems, although if there's going to be one, it's likely Austin. He has the speed to take short targets delivered on time and accurately from Aaron Rodgers to the house, and he can benefit on his deep routes from safety attention on DK Metcalf. He's worth a late round pick in best ball leagues.
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6. NE: New England could have big plans for Demario Douglas
Source: Patriots.com - Evan Lazar
New England Patriots WR DeMario Douglas 'looked at home' working out of the slot this spring and was Drake Maye's favorite receiver in the final two practices of the late spring, according to Evan Lazar of the team's website.
Our view: Douglas has been the favorite target of Drake Maye in OTAs, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels made fantasy stars out of slot receivers in New England in the past. Stefon Diggs is currently the highest drafted Patriots receiver, coming off his 2024 ACL tear, and Douglas is available in the late rounds. That could change as the summer goes on.
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7. IND: Coach happy with Daniel Jones
Source: ColtsWire - Paul Bretl
Indianapolis Colts QB Daniel Jones has performed well during the mandatory minicamp this week and has picked up the offense very well, according to head coach Shane Steichen.
Our view: Don't scoff at the possibility of Jones having fantasy value this year. He was QB10 a few years back with the Giants on the strength of his running ability, and he'll have a lot better receivers than he had back then. Jones might have also benefitted from a few months to learn from QB guru Kevin O'Connell when he was with the Vikings.
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8. LAR: Alaric Jackson dealing with blood clots
Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport
Los Angeles Rams OT Alaric Jackson (blood clots) is dealing with blood clots again, which could put his 2025 season in doubt.
Our view: This is why the team just signed DJ Humphries. Jackson started most of the last two seasons at left tackle for the Rams after missing nine games in 2022 because of blood clots. Humphries wasn't great in 2023 for Arizona before going down with a torn ACL and is turning 32 before the end of the season. If Jackson can't play this year, it will be a blow for the offense.
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That’s a wrap, folks.
Thanks for reading and for hanging out with your Footballguys Family. We appreciate the place you give us in your inbox, and we don't take it for granted.
And to all the dads, grandfathers, and father figures in our Footballguys family - Happy Father’s Day weekend. Here’s to the wisdom you’ve passed down, and the leagues you still run like a champ.
We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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