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Howdy Reader,
Welcome in.
I'm glad you’re here. Whether you’ve been with us for years or a few weeks, this community is built for people like you. Sharp minds, big hearts, and a shared love for the game. Thank you.
Today, we’ve got some great tools and insights to keep you dialed in:
For our dynasty folks, we’re digging into the Commissioner’s Handbook. Because great leagues don’t just happen, they’re built with care and consistency.
We’ve also got the tight ends to target as you shape your roster strategy.
And the Footballguys staff has four QBs who could sink your season. Proceed with caution.
Plus, Bob Harris delivers your News and Notes. We bring the kind of updates that keep you one step ahead.
At the end of the day, we’re not just here to help you win. We’re here to help you love the game more.
Let’s get into it,
J
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Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide
The NFL Draft is in the books, and our Rookie Draft Guide is ready. Version 3.0 includes new team fits, depth chart projections, refined scouting intel, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s your complete blueprint for dominating dynasty rookie drafts.
You’re on the clock. Make the right call.
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What's New At Footballguys
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📣 Voice Of The Footballguy 🎤
📊 POLL RESULTS: In our last issue of the Daily Update, we asked you Footballguys:
Which rookie RB takes control of his backfield first?
And the Footballguy says: I trust TreVeyon Henderson more than the Patriots do.
TODAY: Clayton Gray’s deep dive into how player values are shifting in high-stakes NFFC drafts reveals one clear trend — quarterbacks are climbing.
Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?
So today, we ask you Footballguys:
🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?
When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.
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| 🗳️ POLL: Which Overrated QB Are You Avoiding Most in 2025? |
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Jonnu Smith did not attend the Dolphins' mandatory minicamp last week, but that doesn't mean the tight end will definitely be playing elsewhere this fall. During an appearance on WSVN on Sunday, Smith's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said the situation is "still fluid."
Our view: The Dolphins have talked with other teams about trading Smith, who is looking for a new deal after signing a two-year, $8.4 million contract With Miami before last season. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has stated that the Dolphins aren't looking to move Smith, but they haven't given him a new contract, so it remains a possibility. As PFT reminded readers, Smith was one of the few bright spots for Miami last season, with 88 catches for 884 yards and four touchdowns. It will be a bit longer before we know whether he'll have a chance at an encore.
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New York Jets QB Justin Fields said he feels more comfortable taking command of the offense this year than he did last season in Pittsburgh when he was involved in a quarterback competition. 'It's definitely easier,' Fields said. 'I think last year was - it was kind of weird a little bit.'
Our view: According to ESPN.com's Rich Cimini, the full Fields experience was on display during Wednesday's minicamp session. He overthrew a couple of open receivers, hit Garrett Wilson with a 50-yard dime, placed the ball perfectly on a 6-yard corner route to Josh Reynolds for a touchdown, and showed his speed on some designed runs. The goal when training camp opens will be to gain consistency, which has been an issue for Fields throughout his career. Fortunately for Fields, he's the undisputed QB1 and will get all the reps this summer.
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Tua Tagovailoa and 3 More Overrated QBs to Avoid
By Our Footballguys Staff - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
The flip side of succeeding with undervalued players is failing with overvalued players. They can clog your roster and never seem to match your expectations. Avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to identify players available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.
RELATED: See 3 Underrated Quarterbacks here
Four quarterbacks quickly gathered interest. See what our staff has to say about each overrated player.
Overrated QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Jason Wood: I generally subscribe to the view that every NFL player carries significant injury risk, so I’d rather target those whose ADPs already discount that downside than chase "iron men".
However, Tua Tagovailoa is the rare exception. His history of head trauma is well documented, and after his last concussion, many speculated his career was over. That proved false, but another similar incident could sideline him for an indefinite period.
On top of that, Miami’s current vibe is unsettling: an aging superstar who may want out, a productive tight end rumored to be on the block, and a WR2 who can’t stay healthy or meet expectations. The combined volatility makes Tagovailoa a pass at his current price.
Ben Cummins: There is a plethora of quarterback options available this season, making it hard to lean into a player in Tua Tagovailoa with a concussion history. Is the added risk of Tagovailoa missing time with another head injury worth the risk?
He hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in three seasons and has run for just 193 yards over his past 41 games. That’s 4.7 rushing yards per game over that span. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa ranked 44th out of 44 (In other words: dead last) qualifying quarterbacks in average depth of target (6.1) last season. Miami’s offense was broken last year, and now Tyreek Hill is 31 years old after showing decline a season ago.
So, to summarize: Tagovailoa doesn’t offer rushing upside in an NFL where almost all quarterbacks do, his offense struggled so much in 2024 that he threw the shortest passes in the league, and there is added risk of games missed.
Being risk-averse is not always a winning strategy in fantasy football, but in this instance, it’s the right move. If drafting a quarterback in this ADP range, grab Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, and/or Matthew Stafford instead.
Gary Davenport: It’s not difficult to see the allure with Tagovailoa. The flashes of elite talent. The wideouts at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
It’s the reason why Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier hope against hope they will still have a job a year from now. The reason why those same gentlemen gave the 27-year-old $53 million a season a little while back (Um…Oops?). But that’s wishful thinking—as is trusting Tagovailoa as even a fantasy backup. It goes well past the 55-foot-tall neon-red “NO!” sign that is his injury history.
Tagovailoa has one season in five years in which he passed for more than 3,600 yards. Even with that high-end duo of wideouts, Tagovailoa has never thrown 30 touchdown passes in a season. And perhaps most importantly, Tagovailoa’s air yards per attempt have fallen off significantly since he threw for 4,624 yards in 2023.
Opposing defenses just aren’t letting Hill and Waddle get past them like they did back in the day. And as bad as that is for those pass-catchers, it’s infinitely worse for the fantasy prospects of a quarterback who is going to miss games at some point.
Maurile Tremblay: Tua Tagovailoa’s efficiency is tempting, but too many red flags make him a poor fantasy investment in 2025. A third documented concussion in Week 2 of 2024 sidelined him for four games, and a hip injury cost him the final two, so he managed only 11 starts.
Each added brain injury amplifies recurrence risk, and Miami has already hoarded insurance by signing Zach Wilson and two rookies. Protection also worsened when five?time Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead retired, leaving second?year Patrick Paul on the blind side.
Even at full health, Tagovailoa supplies almost no rushing floor (just 49 yards and zero touchdowns last season), so virtually all of his fantasy production must come through the air. That air game is less secure now that Tyreek Hill is 30, rehabbing from two wrist surgeries, and dealing with off?field turmoil.
Offensive coordinator Frank Smith admits the offense is "starting over," emphasizing size and balance after a late?season collapse—coach?speak for more ground game, fewer deep shots.
A quarterback who regularly misses games, lacks rushing upside, may lose elite protection, and could open the year without his game?breaking receiver is simply too fragile a portfolio item.
Overrated QB Justin Fields, New York Jets
Jason Wood: Justin Fields is the most overrated player in fantasy right now. Yes, he signed a two-year deal with the Jets and has a clear path to being the Week 1 starter. Yes, his rushing ability gives him QB1 potential in any given week. But no, you shouldn’t draft him as your starter, assuming everything will fall into place....
CONTINUED...
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3. MIN: Trial date set for Jordan Addison
Source: ESPN.com - Kevin Seifert
Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison reportedly attended a hearing in a California court on Monday, June 16, in connection to his DUI citation in 2024. Addison, who pleaded not guilty in December, is now scheduled to appear in court again on July 15.
Our view: As Athlon Sports noted, the 23-year-old receiver is facing DUI charges for an incident where he was found asleep behind the wheel of a Rolls Royce in Los Angeles last summer. Addison pleaded not guilty in December. There has been continued speculation about when and if Addison might face a suspension from the NFL, which is awaiting the ruling of his trial. If the July 15 date is a jury trial, that would speed up resolution. We'll be watching for more, but the buzz around the league has suggested a three-game suspension would be likely if Addison is found guilty.
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4. ARI: Trey Benson Hoping For An Expanded Role This Season
Source: NFL.com - Bobby Kownack
Trey Benson is seeking a bigger role in Year 2. The 2024 third-round running back didn't make a huge splash as a rookie, logging just 63 rushing attempts for 291 yards and a touchdown behind workhorse James Conner, but he believes a higher share of carries could be in order moving forward. "I feel like I'll get more opportunities and help James out more," Benson said during mandatory minicamp. "I feel like we can have two RB1s on this team, and that's my mindset this year is two RB1s."
Our view: As NFL.com noted, it remains to be seen how many carries the 30-year-old Conner would actually end up losing. The veteran averaged a career-high 5.0 yards per carry in 2023 with a career-high 1,040 rushing yards to match. He then bested that mark with 1,094 yards on 236 carries in 2024. His 47 catches and 414 receiving yards were his most since 2018, his second season in the league. It seems unlikely a healthy Conner will be coming off the field much, but we'll watch for more on Benson's chances of earning more work during camp.
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5. NYJ: Josh Reynolds entering camp as a starter
Source: ESPN.com - Rich Cimini
New York Jets WR Josh Reynolds is the 'clear favorite for the WR2 job,' according to ESPN.com's Rich Cimini.
Our view: This isn't a huge surprise, given the competition. Allen Lazard was the WR2 when healthy last year, but the veteran has been the subject of trade rumors. Most notable among potential suitors would be Pittsburgh, where Aaron Rodgers landed as QB. Otherwise, second-year man Malachi Corley has been sidelined for more than a month with an unspecified injury. Meanwhile, Reynolds was in Detroit with new Jets head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. He has the most experience with the coaching staff of anyone on the offense.
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6. HOU: Kirk A Big Believer In C.J. Stroud
Source: Profootballtalk.com - Michael David Smith
It hasn't taken long for Texans wide receiver Christian Kirk to become impressed with quarterback C.J. Stroud. Kirk believes Stroud can lead the Texans to a championship. "He's going to take this team as far as we want to go, with him being at his best," Kirk said.
Our view: Appearing on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Kirk told listeners that the 23-year-old Stroud runs the offense like a seasoned veteran. "The thing that sticks out about C.J. is he's super mild-mannered, but he has a lot of confidence, he's smart, he sees things well," the wideout said. Kirk, who has previously played four years with the Cardinals and three with the Jaguars, was traded to the Texans in March. He thinks he's in the right place with the right quarterback. Fantasy investors who agree with Kirk will find Stroud available as QB20 in current drafts.
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7. PIT: T.J. Watt holdout not contentious
Source: SteelersWire - Andrew Vasquez
Pittsburgh Steelers LB T.J. Watt was absent from mandatory minicamp due to contract concerns, but the holdout is not considered contentious, according to sources Sunday, June 15.
Our view: USA Today's Andrew Vasquez added to this by suggesting that despite concerns over whether or not the Steelers are even close to the number Watt is looking for, there seems to be an overreaction stemming from his minicamp absence -- one that can be easily alleviated if the star pass rusher shows up at training camp next month.
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8. TB: Emeka Egbuka impressing teammate
Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka has impressed WR Mike Evans during workouts and minicamp. 'He looks like a running back, but I mean, he catches like Chris Godwin,' Evans said. 'He's a very polished, very well-rounded player.'
Our view: In Evans and Godwin, the Bucs have one of the top tandems in the league. Evans, a six-time Pro Bowler, can still dominate opponents. Godwin was fantasy's WR2 when a dislocated ankle ended his 2024 season in Week 7. Jalen McMillan flashed scoring potential last season, coming on strong down the stretch. The additions of Egbuka and seventh-rounder Tez Johnson give Tampa more wideouts than it can get on the field at once. Short-term investors may want to temper expectations for Egbuka. But he's is WR4 on the Footballguys Rookie Rankings, so the long-term value is there.
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9. NE: Ja'Lynn Polk on the roster bubble?
Source: ESPN.com - Mike Reiss
New England Patriots WR Ja'Lynn Polk (shoulder) was limited during offseason practices after undergoing shoulder surgery and could be a candidate for the Physically Unable to Perform list if he makes the team, according to ESPN.com's Mike Reiss.
Our view: Per Reiss, Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas, and rookie Kyle Williams are locks to make the final roster. The next tier, all of whom made consistent plays in OTAs: Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, Efton Chism III. Reiss went on to suggest that Polk's status as a 2024 second-round pick could help buy him another year -- assuming he buys into the "effort and finish" mentality of the new staff. But even at that, Reiss believes Polk would open the season deep on the depth chart if he makes it.
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That’s a wrap for today, Folks.
Thanks for spending a few minutes with us. And for trusting us to be part of your fantasy football journey. Whether you’ve been with us for 20 seasons or just found your way here this year, it means a lot to share this space with you.
We’ll be back tomorrow with more insight, more updates, and more ways to stay ahead of your league.
Until then, take care, stay curious, and keep loving the game.
Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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