Brandon Aiyuk and 8 More Overrated WRs to Avoid
By Our Footballguys Staff - Exclusive to Footballguys
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First, let's talk about average draft position (ADP).
ADP shows where players are typically being selected across many fantasy drafts, giving you a sense of the consensus value for each player. Our Consensus ADP takes this a step further. We combine the ADPs of several sites into one. We also only allow sites with quality ADP to be factored into the overall ranking.
RELATED: See 6 Underrated Wide Receivers here
We asked our staff to compare wide receiver ADP with our projections to identify wide receivers available in the top half of your draft who should underperform their draft position.
Nine overrated wide receivers quickly gathered interest. See what our staff has to say about each player.
Overrated WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
- Current ADP: WR46
- FBG Projections: WR71
Jason Wood: I'd consider myself a Brandon Aiyuk supporter and believe he's far and away the 49ers' best wide receiver when healthy. Unfortunately, he's not currently healthy, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has already acknowledged that Aiyuk will begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. It's tough to draft a receiver you know won't be available for at least a month, if not longer.
Further complicating matters, while Aiyuk recovers, quarterback Brock Purdy will have more time to build on last year's Jauan Jennings breakout and get Ricky Pearsall more integrated into the offense. That chemistry could shift the pecking order, even after Aiyuk returns.
Aiyuk has league-winning upside as a waiver pickup later in the season, but it's going to be difficult to justify rostering him in 12-team leagues on draft day.
Matt Waldman: I admire Aiyuk's route game, but his midseason ACL injury places him on a timeline that will disrupt his 2025 season. We have seen the likes of Adrian Peterson return to form less than a year after surgery, but most athletes require more than a full season to regain their peak powers.
It's not that the player hasn't regained his strength and explosion. It's the rehabbed body part's ability to recover from the trauma of contact and high-volume stress week in and week out.
This is why fans and media get excited about workout drills or good showings early in the year, only for the player to fade as the season progresses. You can apply this to Rashee Rice as well.
Meng Song: A general rule of thumb is to be wary of players returning from major injuries, and Brandon Aiyuk‘s fantasy profile has multiple red flags heading into 2025. The first is that he tore his MCL in addition to his ACL, which raises additional concerns.
Additionally, Aiyuk didn't undergo surgery until mid-November, which places his return-to-play timeline at nine to 10 months, sometime in mid-August or September. This puts him at risk of not being ready to start the season, potentially burning a roster spot for multiple weeks.
Beyond Aiyuk's actual return to the field, there's also the fact that return to play does not equal return to performance, as aptly put by Stephania Bell. Most athletes returning from ACL surgery don't return to elite performance level until their second season back, and 66 percent of wide receivers never return beyond 85 percent of pre-injury production.
And finally, what exactly does Aiyuk's return to pre-injury production look like? In six fully healthy games in 2024 before injury, Aiyuk's 9.7 PPR points per game ranked 55th among wide receivers. Yeah…I think I'll pass.
Julia Papworth: We all want to believe in a bounce-back season from Aiyuk, after a 2024 one marred by issues. First, he held out for a new contract, had a horrible start to the season, and then suffered an ACL injury. He finished the season with 374 yards on 47 receptions and no touchdowns.
With an ADP in the 40s, my belief in Aiyuk is nowhere near that strong. First of all, there is no guarantee when he will even take the field, having injured both his ACL and MCL. Although reports have been optimistic, Aiyuk could easily start the season on the PUP.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan confused us enough last year with the injury status of Christian McCaffrey, so I have a tough time taking his injury prognosis regarding players at face value. And do the Niners really need to rush Aiyuk back?
Ricky Pearsall is poised for a sophomore breakout after a strong finish to last year. Jauan Jennings continues to be vastly undervalued, Kittle remains a beast, and not to mention the return of McCaffrey. Pair it with the easiest strength of schedule in the league, and I believe we will see the team take their time with Aiyuk.
Jeff Blaylock: Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a November surgery to repair the torn ACL and MCL he suffered in Week 7 of last season. He will likely begin the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, and he may be out until midseason. Once he returns, he will compete for targets against not only wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall but also running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle.
Aiyuk posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023, during which he was the WR15 and WR13, respectively, in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. His 2024 season was already trending downward before the knee injury ended his season. He caught just over half of his targets, easily the lowest of his five-year career, and he failed to score a touchdown. Aside from a 147-yard performance in Week 5, he averaged fewer than three catches and 38 yards per game.
His ADP suggests fantasy managers have been discounting, if not outright ignoring, his injury or lackluster performance before he got injured. Aiyuk is only 27, and our injury expert, Adam Hutchison, likes his post-recovery outlook. He could be a value in drafts this year, but not anywhere near his ADP.
- Current ADP: WR13
- FBG Projections: WR25
Mauricio Gutierrez: Life as a wide receiver in New York might just become like trying to catch a cab in Times Square at rush hour. Garrett Wilson is about to find out what that means with Justin Fields throwing him the ball instead of Aaron Rodgers....
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