Cracking DraftKings Week 9

Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports

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Favorite Games

• Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 50
• Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 50

Favorite Additional Spots

• Bills on the road against the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 31.5
• Cowboys at home vs. the Broncos - Implied Team Total 29.75
• Chiefs at home vs. the Packers - Implied Team Total 27.75
• Dolphins at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 26
• Bengals at home vs. the Browns - Implied Team Total 24.75

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

The Bills have the highest Implied Team Total (31.5) of the entire week and get to play against an awful Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Meanwhile, Josh Allen is having another awesome season as he ranks eighth in pass yards per game (281.7) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.4). Offering upside on the ground as well, Allen is the best Quarterback play of the week in both cash and tournaments.

Jalen Hurts ranks fifth in DraftKings' points per game (24.1) on this slate at the Quarterback position behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, and Dak Prescott. His rushing production (432 yards and five touchdowns so far) provides Hurts with a solid floor and ceiling combination and unlike last week, Hurts projects to play in a competitive game against the Chargers.

Prior to last week's rough outing against the league's best pass defense (Buffalo), Tua Tagovailoa had strung two good games together against the Jaguars and the Falcons totaling 620 pass yards and six pass touchdowns. Like in those two games, Tagovailoa has another favorable matchup this week against a bad Texans defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA. Miami hasn't produced a reliable rushing attack within their offense this season so when the Dolphins offense totals yards this week, the majority of the success should funnel through their second-year Quarterback. And he's affordable at only $5,800.

With Aaron Rodgers on the COVID-19 list, 2020 first-round pick, Jordan Love, will be making his first start in the NFL. Playing on the road in Kansas City is one of the worst draws Love could've had for his debut but at least the actual defense the Chiefs will put on the field is extremely exploitable. Kansas City's defense ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Priced at only $4,400, Love makes sense in cash as he likely only has to get to 12-15 DraftKings points to pay off. He offers some rushing upside as well.

Running Backs

The Cowboys are ten-point home favorites against a Broncos defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 27th in run DVOA and that just traded away their franchise defensive player in Von Miller. Ezekiel Elliott ranks sixth in opportunities per game (20.6). Elliott is my RB1 in all DFS formats this week.

Saquon Barkley will miss yet another game paving the way for Devontae Booker to make at least one more start. Here are Booker's total opportunities over his past four games: 20, 16, 17, and 21. Like Barkley, Booker has been involved on the ground and as a receiver and has looked solid while producing. Booker is not game script-dependent, which helps since we're not sure how this game will play out. But Booker should be able to take advantage either way as the Raiders defense ranks middle of the pack in overall DVOA, run DVOA, and pass DVOA.

Mark Ingram will spell Alvin Kamara at times but that is not a concern at all since Kamara ranks third in the entire league in opportunities per game (24.3). Kamara's workload can be slightly reduced and he'll still be a top-ten weekly option. This week, he gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 25th in run DVOA. And the announcement Trevor Siemian projects to start at Quarterback and Taysom Hill will only be mixed in increases Kamara's target projection.

Dalvin Cook ranks fourth in opportunities per game (23.6) and has a matchup against the Ravens that looks beneficial on paper. Baltimore's defense ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 15th in run DVOA. And this favorable fantasy game has the second-highest Over/Under (50) of the entire week.

Wide Receivers

It's only a matter of time before Stefon Diggs has an eruption game and Week 9 looks to be the spot. Diggs ranks tenth in targets per game (9.3) and gets to attack an awful Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Diggs is my WR1 in all DFS formats this week.

Coming off a huge performance last week where Amari Cooper caught eight of 13 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown, Cooper is priced at only $5,700. That price tag is egregious and should cause Cooper's ownership percentage to skyrocket. That would normally make him a bad tournament play because: #TrustTheProcess but with CeeDee Lamb suffering an ankle injury in practice on Wednesday and likely operating at less than 100% even if he's active, Cooper now looks like a great play in all formats against a Broncos defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA.

Tyreek Hill was able to produce last week (12 catches on 18 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown) despite the offense's struggles in Kansas City. That's pretty solid evidence (Even though we didn't need more proof) that Hill is the most important player on the Chiefs' offense not named Patrick Mahomes II. And the matchup is one Hill should be able to dominate against a Packers defense that only ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA. And no Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay is significant as well. Jordan Love could struggle and if so, Mahomes and Hill will be given more opportunities to attack.

JaMarr Chase ranks second in the league in yards per target (13.1), third in receiving yards (786), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (7). He's in a favorable spot this week at home against a Browns defense that ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.

Will Fuller and DeVante Parker are out once again, which means Jaylen Waddle is the unquestioned WR1 on the Dolphins this week in a home matchup with the Houston Texans. This is one of the most exploitable matchups we have in 2021 as Houston's defense ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA.

Baltimore's shift to a more pass-happy offensive approach has benefited Marquise Brown in a big way. Brown ranks fifth on this slate in DraftKings' points per game at the Wide Receiver position despite only being priced at $6,000. Brown ranks a respectable 24th in targets per game (8.1) and offers big-play potential in one of the best fantasy contests of the week. Plus, the matchup is interesting as Minnesota's defense looks solid on paper but they haven't faced a tough schedule of Quarterbacks so far this season and they were just carved up by Cooper Rush a week ago.

Tyrod Taylor will start for Houston for the first time since Week 2. That's a significant development for Brandin Cooks, the clear-cut WR1 on the Texans. Cooks ranks tied for 13th in the league in targets per game (8.8) and gets to face a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.

DeAndre Hopkins is a Game Time Decision and A.J. Green is on the COVID-19 list. Neither is expected to play. If so, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore would project as the top two Wide Receivers for Arizona in a game against the 49ers in which they'll likely be without their starting Quarterback, Kyler Murray, due to injury as well. Kirk and Moore are unexciting options Colt McCoy is under center but they still have a favorable matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks 17th in overall DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA. And both are affordable, especially Moore at only $4,200.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant projects to be out while on the COVID-19 list and if so, Albert Okwuegbunam (Questionable in his own right so pay attention Sunday morning) would be one of the best Tight End plays of the entire year priced at only $2,600. Okwuegbunam has played around 50% of the offensive snaps in every game he's stayed healthy in so far this season and projects to become a near-full time player as Fant's replacement. And there should be plenty of pass volume to go around for the Broncos as they're ten-point underdogs on the road playing against one of the best teams in football having just traded their franchise defensive player less than a week ago.

Staying with the Broncos at Cowboys, Blake Jarwin is out which means Dalton Schultz projects to handle a bigger workload at the Tight End position for the Cowboys this week. This is a significant development since Denver's Line Backers are banged up and Schultz ranks seventh at the Tight End position on this slate for all healthy Tight Ends in DraftKings' points per game (12.6). Schultz is a solid player getting it done in one of the best offenses in football and that should continue on Sunday with Dak Prescott back in the lineup.

Team Defenses

Sam Darnold is dealing with multiple injuries and is legitimately Questionable to play. But he's been so bad lately it's a win for us rostering the Patriots defense whether Darnold plays or not. Bill Belichick is going to have a field day with his defense in this one. The Patriots are 3.5 point favorites despite playing on the road.

The Bills defense ranks first in overall DVOA, first in pass DVOA, and fifth in run DVOA and gets to face an Urban Meyer-coached offense that could be without James Robinson and that is choosing to feature Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold as their top two passing weapons.

The Cowboys defense ranks sixth in overall DVOA, seventh in pass DVOA, and 11th in run DVOA and Dallas is a ten-point home favorite on Sunday against a Broncos offense led by a Quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater who scares absolutely no one.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott is not even listed on the injury report this week. He's ready to roll in a favorable home matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks 25th in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA. Prescott leads a fun Cowboys offense that ranks third in overall DVOA and third in passing DVOA and he ranks fourth in the league in pass yards per game (302.2) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.7). Prescott's play is one of the biggest storylines of the 2021 season and he's one of the front-runners to win the 2021 MVP Award. Yet he's priced at only $6,900.

Patrick Mahomes II has certainly looked off the past couple of weeks and there's no way of knowing for sure, but it's likely been a mental thing. There's really no way to predict how that can affect any player on a week-to-week basis so instead, I'll just say Kansas City's recent struggles present an opportunity to "buy low" in DFS tournaments by rostering Mahomes at lower ownership percentages than usual. No Aaron Rodgers on the other side should remove some of that psychological burden from Mahomes this week as Jordan Love is not likely to dice up the Chiefs, no matter how bad their defense is. Love could struggle and if so, Mahomes will be given more opportunities to attack a Packers defense struggling in their own right that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA. And Mahomes still has the Chiefs offense ranked sixth in overall DVOA and ninth in pass DVOA and he ranks fifth in pass yards per game (296) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.4). I'll bet on his macro-level entire career over his micro-level recent struggles any day.

The injuries in Baltimore's backfield have caused the Ravens to put the entire offense on Lamar Jackson's back and it's truly been a sight to see. Jackson ranks second in DraftKings' points per game on this slate at the Quarterback position, tenth in pass yards per game (277.6), 20th in pass touchdowns per game (1.4), and also ranks tenth in the entire league in rush yards (480). Jackson is an elite dual-threat playing at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Minnesota's defense looks solid on paper but they haven't faced a tough schedule of Quarterbacks so far this season and they were just carved up by Cooper Rush a week ago.

Justin Herbert ranks sixth in pass yards per game (284.9) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and will play in the most intriguing fantasy game of the week. On the road in Philadelphia, Herbert should be required to produce in a competitive matchup and he has the talent around him to do just that in an exploitable matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks 16th in overall DVOA and 12th in pass DVOA.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ranks 13th in opportunities per contest (18) and will play in the game that intrigues me the most this week from a fantasy standpoint. Playing on the road in Philadelphia, Ekeler will be needed to secure the win and he has a matchup he can absolutely dominate if he hits his high range of outcomes. The Eagles defense ranks 16th in overall DVOA and 22nd in run DVOA and their LineBacker corps is the biggest weakness on their defense. Advantage Ekeler in the quick passing game all day.

Malcolm Brown's absence this week is a bigger deal than most will realize. Salvon Ahmed's role did not change last week despite Brown being out of the lineup. Instead, Miami utilized Patrick Laird on 14% of the offensive snaps for Laird's first game action of the season. Meanwhile, Gaskin played on 58% of the offensive snaps and saw 16 total opportunities. Brown was the only Running Back on the roster that could significantly drain Gaskin's playing time. Ahmed and Laird will likely see action again this week but 16 opportunities, especially since Gaskin receives work in the passing game, should be enough to get home playing at home against a bad Texans defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 31st in run DVOA. And here's the thing: there is a chance the Dolphins decide to increase Gaskin's snap share this week as well.

No Aaron Rodgers likely means Matt LaFleur will stick with a run-heavy approach and Aaron Jones-centric offense for as long as he can against a bad Chiefs defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA. Jones already ranks 14th in the league in opportunities per game (17.9) and just saw 26 opportunities a week ago without Davante Adams. Adams projects to return this week but Rodgers' absence should have a similar effect on Jones' increased workload.

Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both Game Time Decisions and not expected to suit up for this one. Thus, the 49ers are now 2.5 point home favorites. Arizona's defense has been solid all year but it's important to note J.J. Watt has now been lost for the season. All of these factors are beneficial to Elijah Mitchell if he's able to suit up (He's Questionable so pay attention Sunday morning). Mitchell ranks fourth in the entire league in rushing yards per game (86.6) and we know Kyle Shanahan's bread and butter is scheming up success in the run game.

Wide Receivers

On the road in Philadelphia, the Chargers' passing game should be required to produce in a competitive matchup and they should be able to deliver against an Eagles defense that ranks 16th in overall DVOA and 12th in pass DVOA. Keenan Allen ranks eighth in targets per game (9.9) and Mike Williams ranks 15th in targets per game (8.7) and both get to play in the most intriguing fantasy game of the week.

Justin Jefferson is one of the most elite talents the league has at Wide Receiver yet will likely go overlooked in one of the best fantasy games of the week. Minnesota had their bye in Week 7 and Jefferson had his worst game of the season in Week 8 so recency bias has many forgetting the incredible damage Jefferson can do to a defense. The Vikings are six-point underdogs on the road so whether Mike Zimmer likes it or not, they're almost certainly going to have to chuck it plenty in this one. Jefferson can take advantage against a Ravens defense that ranks 24th in overall DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA.

JaMarr Chase has lit the league up but take a look at this: Targets per game: Tee Higgins 8.2 and JaMarr Chase 7.5. Higgins was a solid collegiate prospect, balled out as a rookie in 2020, and clearly hasn't been forgotten about this season despite missing some time due to injury. Higgins was very close to a huge game last Sunday, posting four receptions for 97 yards. He was tackled near the goal line and just barely missed the 100-yards bonus. Priced at only $5,300, we're going right back to the well this week as Higgins is playing at home against a Browns defense that ranks 19th in overall DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA.

Emmanuel Sanders didn't catch a single pass on four targets last week but he still played on 77% of the offensive snaps, which was the highest rate for all Wide Receivers on the team. There's no doubt we should go right back to Sanders in this spot in tournaments against an awful Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.

Deebo Samuel is legitimately questionable this week with a calf injury and this comes a week after Brandon Aiyuk played a season-high 88% of the snaps, catching four of seven targets for 45 yards and also securing a two-point conversion reception. Aiyuk is severely underpriced at $4,100 even with George Kittle projected to return to the lineup on Sunday. The matchup is a tough one against Arizona but the Cardinals' offense being decimated by injuries this week should allow Jimmy Garoppolo and Aiyuk to work with the ball a bit more.

Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins are both listed as Questionable but both are expected to play. Bateman surprisingly reportedly missed practice on Friday but Head Coach John Harbaugh called Bateman's injury a "minor physical issue" and said he has a very good chance to play. These developments are worth monitoring on Sunday morning but for now, Bateman looks underpriced at only $4,000 in a favorable fantasy game. Bateman has seen six targets in both contests he has played in so far this season.

The Broncos are ten-point underdogs on the road playing against one of the best teams in football having just traded their franchise defensive player less than a week ago. I think we all know how this game is going to end. So with the Broncos projected to be playing from behind and throwing a lot, Jerry Jeudy becomes very intriguing. He returned from injury last week to play on 72% of the offensive snaps and four targets. There should be room for both of those numbers to grow in his second game back from the ankle issue here and Jeudy has the talent to turn increased playing time and volume into a big day on DraftKings.

Bryan Edwards is a full-time player for the Raiders. He's played 39 more snaps than any other Raiders' Wide Receiver and now owns an even wider gap without Henry Ruggs on the team. Edwards has talent and is playing with a Quarterback in Derek Carr who has been getting it done this season. When Edwards isn't facing man-to-man coverage by James Bradberry, he should receive opportunities to produce.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce is 32 years old and has looked the part recently yet he still ranks first on this slate at the Tight End position in DraftKings' points per game (16.8). Kansas City's recent struggles present an opportunity to "buy low" in DFS tournaments by rostering Kelce at lower ownership percentages than usual. No Aaron Rodgers on the other side is significant because Jordan Love could struggle and if so, Patrick Mahomes II and Kelce will be given more opportunities to attack a struggling Packers defense that ranks 22nd in overall DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA.

George Kittle has been activated from Injured Reserve and projects to return this week at the same time Deebo Samuel is legitimately questionable this week with a calf injury. Kittle projects to step right in as the number 1 option in the passing game if Samuel is inactive or operating at less than 100%. Priced at only $5,200 and likely low owned this week, Kittle is a bet on talent tournament play at home against a banged-up Cardinals team.

The absence of Henry Ruggs should funnel even more volume toward Darren Waller, who will return this week following an ankle injury that kept him out in Week 7 prior to the Raiders' Week 8 bye. That's exciting since Waller already ranks 13th in the entire league in targets per game (8.8) and has a decent matchup on tap against a Giants defense that ranks 14th in overall DVOA.

Will Fuller and DeVante Parker are out once again, which is great news for Mike Gesicki. Gesicki is listed as a Tight End but has lined up in the slot on 67.5% of his snaps this season. Gesicki is being used as a Wide Receiver and offers significant upside in this spot against a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 16th in pass DVOA.

Team Defenses

The Chiefs defense has been absolutely horrendous this season yet Kansas City is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and Jordan Love will have to make his first start there. Love could very easily struggle and if so, it shouldn't be hard for the Chiefs defense to get there for us at only $2,300. The Chiefs are seven-point home favorites.

Jalen Hurts has been great for fantasy but he has not produced as well as a pure passer. The Chargers defense should be able to rattle Hurts as they rank 12th in overall DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been very susceptible to rushing production yet the Eagles have yet to find an identity on the ground outside of Hurts himself. This just doesn't present as a favorable matchup for the Eagles offense and that could lead to the Chargers D/ST posting a big fantasy day.

Key Injuries and Suspensions

• Aaron Rodgers OUT - Upgrade Chiefs D/ST and Jordan Love
• Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both Game Time Decisions and A.J. Green projected OUT - Upgrade 49ers D/ST, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz
• Saquon Barkley OUT - Upgrade Devontae Booker
• Noah Fant projected OUT - Upgrade Albert Okwuegbunam
• George Kittle Projected IN and Deebo Samuel legitimately Questionable - Upgrade George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk
• CeeDee Lamb is legitimately Questionable with an ankle injury suffered in Wednesday's practice - Upgrade Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, Cedrick Wilson, and potentially Michael Gallup if he is activated
• Blake Jarwin OUT - Upgrade Dalton Schultz
• James Robinson is legitimately Questionable - Upgrade Carlos Hyde
• Odell Beckham Released and Donovan Peoples-Jones Questionable - Upgrade Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Anthony Schwartz, Austin Hooper, and David Njoku
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire OUT - Upgrade Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore
• Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tajae Sharpe, and Russell Gage
• Will Fuller and DeVante Parker OUT - Upgrade Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, and Mack Hollins
• Henry Ruggs OUT - Upgrade Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Bryan Edwards
• Jameis Winston OUT and Taysom Hill IN but Trevor Siemian will reportedly start at Quarterback - Upgrade Trevor Siemian
• Sterling Shepard OUT and Kenny Golladay Questionable - Upgrade Kadarius Toney and Darius Slayton
• Dawson Knox OUT - Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley (Questionable so make sure he plays), Gabriel Davis, and Tommy Sweeney
• Sam Darnold legitimately Questionable - Upgrade P.J. Walker if Darnold sits
• Tyrod Taylor IN - Upgrade Brandin Cooks
• Latavius Murray - Doubtful - Upgrade Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell and TySon Williams
• Miles Sanders OUT - Upgrade Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell, and Jordan Howard
• Christian McCaffrey Questionable - If McCaffrey sits Upgrade Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, and Robby Anderson
• Malcolm Brown OUT - Upgrade Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed
• Von Miller Traded - Upgrade Cowboys Offense
• J.J. Watt OUT - Upgrade 49ers Offense
• Tyron Smith OUT - Upgrade Broncos D/ST
• Garrett Bradbury (Vikings C) OUT - Upgrade Ravens D/ST

Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays

• Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Emmanuel Sanders
• Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz
• Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
• Lamar Jackson and Rashod Bateman

Flag Plant Plays

• Austin Ekeler
• Stefon Diggs
• Myles Gaskin
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Tee Higgins
• Albert Okwuegbunam