The Week 14 FanDuel NFL preview is going to be a two-parter. You will get the usual picks on Friday morning but there will be an extensive update on Sunday morning. There is just no other way to approach this given the sheer amount of impactful injuries and illnesses.
Here is just a shortlist of the things we are watching:
- Which San Francisco running backs will be available? If Jeff Wilson, Eli Mitchell, or Jamycal Hasty has the backfield to himself, they instantly become one of the top plays on the slate. If Wilson has the backfield to himself, he is a lock at $4,900 and it completely changes the roster-building dynamics of the slate, opening up much easier paths to the other top running backs and the top tight ends.
- Will Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams play for the Chargers? If one of the two plays, they will be a top option. If both are sidelined, we have to consider value options like Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton.
- Will Tony Pollard play? If not, Ezekiel Elliott essentially has the backfield to himself.
- Is Deebo Samuel back? His absence would impact the projections of not only George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk but also whichever running backs are available.
- Is Elijah Moore active? If healthy, he has one of the best target projections of any player on the slate and is very low priced. If he is out, Jamison Crowder could be the last man standing for the Jets at wide receiver in a prime spot for production.
- Do we get any updates on how the finger injuries of Taysom Hill and Joe Burrow are progressing?
- Will Darren Waller be back? Will Joe Mixon be good to go? How healthy is Alvin Kamara?
Friday practice reports are THE most telling in terms of a players’ availability for their upcoming game
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 10, 2021
Tracking today:
â—½ï¸ Joe Mixon
â—½ï¸ Deebo Samuel
â—½ï¸ T.J. Hockenson
â—½ï¸ Darren Waller
â—½ï¸ David Montgomery
â—½ï¸ Elijah Moore
â—½ï¸ J.D. McKissic
â—½ï¸ Tony Pollard
â—½ï¸ Darrell Henderson
- The list could go on but you get the point. There is still a lot up in the air so my Friday morning takes are unlikely to remain unchanged between now and Sunday morning.
Quarterback
Positional Overview
Not much stands out above the pack at quarterback this week. You can make a reasonable case for over half of the passers on this slate. The advice if you are multi-entering in Week 14 is to spread your exposure out more than you normally would. This is especially true since there are so many sub-$8K quarterbacks with legitimate rushing upside (Lamar Jackson, Taysom Hill, and Cam Newton the most obvious). On the higher end, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes II are each in above average spots.
Sunday Update: Justin Herbert gets a boost with the news Mike Williams will be able to play. He is firmly within the top five options on the slate at the position. The 49ers will be without a pair of starting cornerbacks, which adds to the sleeper appeal of Joe Burrow. The Bengals talented wide receiver corps will have a major edge against the backup cornerbacks for San Francisco.
Top QB Plays
Tom Brady ($8,200), Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo
Brady is an incredibly safe play with legitimate upside as well. He has scored at least 27 FanDuel points in 6-of-12 games and you would feel great about another 27-plus point score on this slate. While the Bills defense has been good against the pass, the potency of the Bills offense may be an even more important factor. We want to see Brady when pressed to be aggressive for a full four quarters in a potential shootout. Plus, with the Bills struggles defending the run, expect that to be a point of emphasis in their game plan this week. Buffalo is not going to want Leonard Fournette to beat them and this focus on stopping the run could nudge Tampa Bay into an even more pass-heavy game script than normal.
Dak Prescott ($8,100), Dallas at Washington
We have not seen Prescott with his full complement of weapons since Week 1 (when he threw for 403 yards and 3 touchdowns). Dallas has arguably the top trio of wide receivers in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup force an opponent to pick their poison. The passing game weapons will provide matchup issues that an underwhelming Washington secondary could struggle with. No team has given up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than Washington. This is another spot where we will want to pay attention to the news closer to kick off. Tony Pollard has plantar fasciitis and Ezekiel Elliot has not looked right while playing through a knee injury. If Pollard is out, this may be a more pass-heavy game plan than it otherwise might have been. The Cowboys might finally get Prescott back into the game as a runner. His lack of rushing production this season has been a major disappointment.
Other QBs to consider:
Taysom Hill ($7,700), New Orleans at NY Jets
Hill had four interceptions last week and is dealing with an injury to the middle finger of his throwing hand. The Saints also have the worst group of pass-catchers in the NFL. This play is not for the faint of heart and could go south in a hurry. All that being said, there is legitimate upside here. Hill ran for 89 yards in the second half against the Cowboys last week. Not even Lamar Jackson has as high of a rushing projection as Hill. His legs are going to be a huge part of the gameplay, especially down around the goal line.
Friday practice reports are THE most telling in terms of a players’ availability for their upcoming game
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 10, 2021
Tracking today:
â—½ï¸ Joe Mixon
â—½ï¸ Deebo Samuel
â—½ï¸ T.J. Hockenson
â—½ï¸ Darren Waller
â—½ï¸ David Montgomery
â—½ï¸ Elijah Moore
â—½ï¸ J.D. McKissic
â—½ï¸ Tony Pollard
â—½ï¸ Darrell Henderson
Running Back
Positional Overview
We have no idea how to approach this position as of Friday morning with so many impactful injury situations to monitor. The 49ers, Cowboys, Saints, Chargers, and other backfields have uncertain situations that could materially impact projections. The 49ers situation is especially worth watching. A $4,900 Jeff Wilson starting would be a free square and make it much easier to fit in top backs like Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara. Both Ekeler and Kamara could see even heavier usage than normal given potential absences on their rosters.
The mid-tier is potentially fertile ground with Javonte Williams, Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire each coming with some upside.
Sunday Update: We do not have full clarity on whether Tony Pollard will be out but it seems to be trending that direction. This puts Ezekiel Elliott into the top tier at the position. In the same game, J.D. McKissic will miss another week. This make Antonio Gibson arguably the top play on the slate now. You probably do not want both Elliott or Gibson, but one or the other will be in most of my tournament lineups. We have some clarity in San Francisco, where Jeff Wilson will be the top guy. Deebo Samuel is likely to play, however. This adds a bit of uncertainty given his ability to mix in at running back. Still, $4,900 is way too cheap for Wilson and he is the top bargain option on the slate.
Top RB Plays
Javonte Williams ($6,700), Denver vs. Detroit
Williams looked great in primetime last weekend and may be a popular play this week. However, the likely return of Melvin Gordon could scare some off. While Williams is not going to see the same crazy usage (23 carries and 9 targets) he did last week while splitting the backfield with Gordon, last week’s performance should have at least moved Williams to the 1A role for Denver. There is no reason for Denver to put this genie back in the bottle given that Williams is clearly the future of this offense. The Broncos are big home favorites against a Lions defense that is giving up 24.9 fantasy points per game, third-most in the league.
Melvin Gordon is likely to return in Week 14. Will the Broncos continue to feature Javonte Williams? 👀 #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/4D73Be6iKD
— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) December 9, 2021
Jeff Wilson ($4,900), San Francisco at Cincinnati
This is essentially a placeholder for Sunday morning since it is entirely unclear as of Friday morning who will be up for the 49ers on Sunday. Elijah Mitchell is in concussion protocol. Jeff Wilson has a knee injury but seems headed towards being able to play through it. Should Wilson and Mitchell both be out, Jamycal Hasty becomes a great play.
FANTASY UPDATE: @49ers RB Jeff Wilson Jr.the ‘favorite’ to lead the backfield if Elijah Mitchell can’t go on Sunday pic.twitter.com/powR03CJkY
— The Fantasy Source 🔮🈠(@FantasySource_) December 10, 2021
Austin Ekeler ($9,200), LA Chargers vs. NY Giants
Ekeler is already a core piece of the Chargers passing game. If Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both sidelined, it is hard not to project Ekeler for double-digit targets. The Giants are giving up 48 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (eighth-most). With the Chargers 10-point home favorites against a beat-down Giants offense, the game script should be ideal for a big Ekeler game both on the ground and through the air. He is the obvious pay-up option on the slate.
Other RBs to consider:
Ezekiel Elliott ($6,900), Dallas at Washington
This is a provisional play assuming that Tony Pollard ends up being out and we get some relatively positive reports about Elliott’s health in the lead up to the game on Sunday. Elliott has not looked the same player in recent weeks as early in the season. He also has not played 70% of the snaps in any game since Week 8. If Pollard is out, that would change.
Alvin Kamara ($9,000), New Orleans at NY Jets
If we get some strong value plays (like Jeff Wilson), it makes for a much softer salary cap and allows us to get up to Kamara more easily. With Mark Ingram potentially out on Sunday (yet another injury situation to monitor), Kamara could have the backfield essentially to himself against a mediocre Jets defense.
Taysom Hill targeted his RBs 9 times for a 22% share last week. Those RBs were Ty Montgomery and Mark Ingram.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) December 10, 2021
Maybe we shouldn't be too worried about Alvin Kamara's target volume this weekend.
Wide Receiver
Positional Overview
The running back injuries will have a big impact on our wide receiver salary. If a lot of value opens up at running back, we can simply roster a trio of strong wide receivers in the $7K-plus range. We certainly have plenty of enticing pay-up options, including Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb, and others. We could also look to injuries or COVID protocols for cap savings at our WR3 spot with Jamison Crowder (if Elijah Moore is out) or one of the Chargers wide receivers (if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both out).
Sunday Update: Mike Williams and Deebo Samuel are in. Both are worth considering. Williams may go slightly over owned. The Bengals top wide receivers get small bumps due to an undermanned San Francisco secondary. Elijah Moore is out, which moves Jamison Crowder up the list of top bargain plays on the slate.
Top WR Options
Chris Godwin ($7,700), Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo
There is going to be ownership on all of the top options in this Buffalo-Tampa Bay given that it is the lone projected shootout on the slate. My gut feel is Godwin does not end up being quite as popular as many are predicting. So often this season, we have seen it play out where the supposedly sharp take is that the field is going to be on A, so we should be on B. But there are so many dialed-in players in the fantasy space now, the contrarian play ends up actually being where the majority land. We saw this one week where Keenan Allen was expected to be chalk and Mike Williams was projected to come in at a fraction of the ownership. Then on Sunday, contrarian Mike Williams ended up being 30% owned and more popular than Allen. We mention this here because we could see a similar dynamic play out between Godwin and Mike Evans. The early narrative seems to be that Godwin is going to be extremely popular and Evans will be the contrarian play. Maybe the move is to zag while everyone else thinks they are zigging.
Putting aside the game theory elements, Godwin is just a fantastic play on the merits. He is coming off of a week in which he caught 15 passes for 143 yards. He has a rushing attempt in three straight games. He has also been targeted in the red zone in eight straight games (17 total over that stretch) and seems due for some positive touchdown regression.
D.J. Moore ($6,800), Carolina vs. Atlanta
Moore gets the same matchup this week that Godwin feasted on last week. The Falcons are allowing 31.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and Moore has been receiving the vast majority of the wide receiver targets for the Panthers. He has at least seven targets in every single game and is averaging a healthy 9.3 targets per game. The price is right here considering both his volume and the soft matchup. The bigger question may be how much you trust Cam Newton to get him the ball.
Most incomplete targets that were deemed to be the quarterback's fault (PFF):
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 8, 2021
1. D.J. Moore (21)
Josh Palmer ($4,700), LA Chargers vs. NY Giants
This is another provisional play that we will have to check back in on Sunday morning. If both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are out, Palmer is my pick to be the receiver for the Chargers. While the rookie has not produced much this season, he was a consistent standout in training camp and seems to be a player who the Chargers view as a potentially key piece moving forward. If this game is under control (and it should be against a Jake Fromm led Giants squad), then it makes sense for Herbert and the coaching staff to give Palmer some extra targets to see what they really have and try to build his confidence up for a larger role down the stretch.
Other WRs to Consider:
DK Metcalf ($7,300), Seattle at Houston
Metcalf almost had a monster Week 13. He was open on a deep ball that Russell Wilson missed. He nearly had a touchdown but was only able to get one foot down in the end zone. He also had another near touchdown when he was tackled just shy of the goal line. If ever there was a get-right spot for the Seahawks passing offense, this is it against a bad Texans defense that has been the worst in the NFL on deep passes.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,800), Dallas at Washington
If we get some value at running back (Wilson?), we can easily build lineups with three wide receivers priced in the $7,000-to-$8,000 range. Under a looser cap, Lamb is a great one off given his high floor and high ceiling. Cowboys stacks with Dak Prescott are also very much in play this week.
JaMarr Chase ($7,200), Cincinnati vs. San Francisco
The season has been a roller coaster for Chase, with the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. His bobble that not only likely cost him a long touchdown but led to a costly interception last week was a low point. This feels like a spot where Joe Burrow and the Bengals coaching staff are going to want to make a point of proving they believe in Chase and try to get him back on track. Plus, outside of the Bills-Bucs game, the 49ers-Bengals game is our best bet for a shootout.
Tight End
Positional Overview
Regardless of what plays out at the other positions, this is a week to try to find the money to pay up at tight end. Not much stands out on the low end with the possible exception of Jared Cook at $5,100 if the Chargers are down their top two wide receivers. This feels like another week where one of the top tight ends goes off for a huge game and you are going to need that big score at the position to truly compete in larger-field tournaments.
Sunday Update: T.J. Hockenson is out but he was not a strong consideration, regardless. Deebo Samuel being likely to play muddies the waters a bit for Kittle. Samuel may eat into his expected targets just slightly.
Top TE Options
George Kittle ($7,100), San Francisco at Cincinnati
Kittle is the top play at tight end this week. The Bengals are going to be shuffling pieces around at linebacker with defensive leader Logan Wilson sidelined by a shoulder injury. Aside from one dud against the Vikings, Kittle has been fantastic since coming back off of IR. He has scored in four-of-five games and looked unstoppable last week on his way to a dominant 9-181-2 line. With all of the other injuries for the 49ers, look for Jimmy Garoppolo to keep leaning on Kittle.
It's cool that George Kittle leads all TEs in Yards per Route Run (2.5) this year.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 10, 2021
Oh wow... he did it in 2020 as well- 2.8
[checks notes]
Lookie there & in 2019 also- 3.1
[Goes to the restroom... comes back]
Oh yeah... silly me ðŸ¤¦â™‚ï¸ he did it in 2018 too- 2.8
Travis Kelce ($7,500) Kansas City vs. Las Vegas
Kelce has been merely good this season and is no longer the dominant force he once was. He has just one 100-yard receiving game since Week 2. However, that game was against the same Raiders team he will face this week (8-119-0). In his last seven outings against the Raiders, Kelce has averaged 7.6 catches for 112 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game. If this Chargers passing game is going to get revved back up for the stretch run, it will start with getting Kelce going again and this is a spot where there is potential for that to happen.
Other TEs to consider:
Rob Gronkowski ($7,000), Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo
Gronkowski projects to play 80% of the snaps for the third straight week. He has scored multiple touchdowns in 75% of the games this season that he has played 80% of the snaps. In a potential shootout against the Bills, Gronkowski has heavy touchdown equity and could go relatively under-owned with the Buccaneers having so many other top options.
Top Defenses
Denver ($4,400) vs. Detroit
The Broncos are big home favorites against a Detroit offense that is lacking weapons. The Broncos have held their opponent to 17 points or less in five-of-six games and have had at least one interception in five straight.
LA Chargers ($4,300) vs. NY Giants
Los Angeles is a huge home favorite against a Giants offense that has been absolutely decimated by injuries. This same defense sacked Joe Burrow six times last week and forced four turnovers.
NY Jets ($3,000) vs. New Orleans
This seems like a very high variance spot for Taysom Hill and the Saints offense. It could go well, which is why Hill is an intriguing GPP option. It also would not be a surprise to see this Saints offense be an absolute disaster given their lack of weapons and the fact that Hill will be playing with a splint on the middle finger of his throwing hand. Do we need the salary savings on this slate? We may know more about that Sunday morning.
