DraftKings GPP Domination Week 15

Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig, USA Today Sports

Know Your Opposition

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

Key Injuries for Week 15

This season is unique in that we are dealing with so many backups, injuries, and rookie quarterbacks that it is becoming a bit unprecedented.

• C.J. Stroud will miss this week with a concussion. Davis Mills will likely get the start for the Texans although he split reps with Case Keenum. The Texans will also likely be without Nico Collins who is dealing with a calf injury. This will leave them incredibly thin at wide receiver as Noah Brown and Robert Woods will likely get the start.
• Tyreek Hill is questionable with an ankle injury. If he’s out, Jaylen Waddle will see an upgrade, although the matchup is a very difficult one as the Dolphins take on the league’s best pass defense in the New York Jets.
• Chris Olave will be a game-time decision for the Saints. If he is out, we could expect to see a minor boost for Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, but the Saints are facing one of the best pass defenses in the league.
• Brian Robinson will miss this week with a hamstring injury. Antonio Gibson will likely see around 70% of the touches, but Chris Rodriguez should also have a role, although most of the receiving volume should go to Gibson who is an excellent receiving back.
• The Falcons' offensive line is a mess as four of the five starters are questionable for this week. While this will likely impact their rushing attack, it’s more likely that it will hurt their pass blocking as replacement-level offensive linemen are typically much more capable run blockers.
• Isiah Pacheco will miss this week again. We haven't seen either Jerick McKinnon or Clyde Edwards-Helaire take advantage of Pacheco being out as the Chiefs rushing attack has struggled as of late. Edwards-Helaire had 11 carries last week but failed to have a carry

Slate Overview- Week 15 Thoughts- Navigating a Short Slate

This is a unique week as we only have 10 games on the slate. To make things more difficult is that there are several teams that are likely not going to be teams that we are going to target such as the Jets, Titans, Texans, Patriots, Giants, Panthers, and Falcons. This essentially limits the teams that we want to target to just 13 teams.

Several teams such as the Saints, Bears, Commanders, and Cardinals only have a few options that are to be considered for your lineup this week. So with such a small player pool, creating a unique lineup is going to be difficult. Simply stacking one of the 13 teams is not enough to create a unique lineup. This week we need to focus on roster percentages and find players who are flying under the radar and have a chance to have a massive game while making key decisions on players who may be more highly rostered.

For example, there are likely going to be three running backs who are topping 30% rostered this week Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and Ezekiel Elliott. Taking two of these players and then stacking the quarterback/wide receivers of the same game is not going to create any uniqueness and be shared by many people.

One of the questions that gets asked quite a bit is why should I care about uniqueness in your lineup. There are a few different reasons for this. First and foremost, your expected value of that lineup is massively cut if you have a shared lineup with one or sometimes multiple people. If the winning prize is $1M, but you created a common lineup that is shared with 8 other people, now the most that lineup could win, even if it is the best lineup on the site is likely only a couple hundred thousand. Obviously, anyone would still take that, but for how difficult it is to get into that first-place prize pool, you want the maximum return on your investment.

Stacks

Top Stacks

Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin

Matthew Stafford and the Rams are in a tremendous position this week to have a big performance. No team has allowed as many fantasy points as the Washington Commanders have this season as they have allowed six quarterbacks to top 300 yards on the year. Stafford and the Rams have started to figure out how to operate with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as Stafford has thrown three touchdowns or more in each of his last three games against two of the best pass defenses in the NFL as the Rams beat Cleveland and lost in overtime to Baltimore and beat Arizona in a blowout where Stafford threw four touchdowns in that game.

For Kyren Williams, this is a simple way to get uniqueness while also getting the stack of a potential receiving touchdown. Only Christian McCaffrey has had more red zone targets this season, and Williams is third in total opportunities trailing McCaffrey and Tony Pollard. Williams has been outstanding as of late as he has topped 100 total yards in each of his last four games while rushing for over 100 in three of his last four.

Cooper Kupp finally found something last week that he should be able to build off of as the Rams try to make a late-season playoff push. Kupp was outstanding last week. Kupp had 8 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown as the receiver had 10 targets for the first time since October 29^th. He likely will see a lot of Benjamin St-Juste who is second in the NFL in yards allowed this season in coverage.

Under-the-Radar Stacks

Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Amari Cooper

The Browns are starting to show that they’re a fake team. While their overall statistical numbers look great, over the last five weeks, they’ve allowed 29, 36, 27, 10, and 31 points. Defensive injuries are starting to get to this team as their top three safeties are out with Juan Thornhill, Rodney McLeod, and Grant Delpit. They might also be without Denzel Ward this week who has missed their last three games which would be a significant blow as Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome are great players when they are in their specific role but have struggled when asked to step into a different role this season. Fields running and passing should have a big day, while DJ Moore should be able to exploit this secondary particularly deep as we’ve seen Moore’s production skyrocket with Fields as the starter compared to Tyson Bagent.

For Cooper, the signs are there for a breakout performance. Last week, he had 7 receptions for 77 yards, but it was the 14 targets that were the most encouraging. We saw Cooper also be the primary receiver before his injury two weeks ago in which Elijah Moore stepped up after Cooper left the game with a concussion. David Njoku also has upside this week as the tight end had 6 receptions for 91 yards, but to get Cooper at around 8% rostered is a steal for a player who almost assuredly will have 10 or more targets this week.

Josh Allen, Gabriel Davis, CeeDee Lamb

I came very close to recommending just Josh Allen and CeeDee Lamb, which would be very under the radar to recommend a quarterback without a receiver on his team. It’s possible that could work, but you would need multiple rushing touchdowns from Josh Allen as well as for him to spread the ball around which he does excel at especially now that Stefon Diggs has taken a reduced role in that offense. However, looking deeper into the Bills, there’s a direct correlation between Josh Allen’s biggest performances and Gabriel Davis’ production. Over Allen’s last three 300-yard performances, Davis has 23.7 DraftKings points or more in all three performances. At $5,500 Davis is a traditional boom-or-bust player that is perfect for GPP’s.

For Lamb, he’s as consistent as they come when it comes to the wide receiver position, and this stack allows you to pivot off of the more popular Prescott, Lamb stacks as people tend to stack their quarterback with their most expensive wide receiver, so any stacks away from that typically are a great idea. Lamb should be in the most favorable matchup amongst the Bills receivers this week as Rasul Douglas has been outstanding on the outside, but expect Lamb to see a lot of Taron Johnson out of the slot this week as the Bills don’t typically rotate their corners. Johnson is by no means a bad cornerback, but he’s not playing at an All-Pro like Douglas currently is at.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor player. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.

Quarterback

Brock Purdy- $6,800- 8%

Brock Purdy continues to just break the DraftKings pricing algorithm. He’s the fifth-most fantasy points on the season, yet for DraftKings in a favorable matchup to have him as the seventh-highest-priced quarterback on a short slate is just great value for the player. With Purdy, you get so many stacking options that can create unique builds such as pairing Purdy and McCaffrey as McCaffrey leads the NFL in red zone targets. Or you could look to pair him with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle. Coming off of back-to-back 300-yard passing performances, Purdy is squarely in the MVP race, and the 49ers who have already clinched a playoff spot are going to look to use something like that as motivation to get him the counting stats in order to have an MVP opportunity this season.

Jordan Love- $6,200- 3%

With so much of the roster percentage likely going to be funneling towards Matthew Stafford, this opens up an opportunity for a player such as Jordan Love who is in a similarly great matchup as Stafford as the Packers take on Tampa Bay this week. The Buccaneers are allowing the most passing yards on the season at 282 per game, and since Week 6, are allowing 301 yards per game. Jordan Love has had his ups and downs, but the second half of the season has been much better. Over the last four games, Love has topped 20 DraftKings points in three of those games with last week being the first game he failed to do so.

Other quarterbacks to consider:

Joe Flacco
Kyler Murray
Patrick Mahomes II

Running Back

Rachaad White- $7,000- 11%

This one seems to be falling under the radar and one that he could become more popular as the week goes on. The Packers' run defense has been one of the worst in the NFL for a little bit of time as they’re allowing 5.2 yards per carry over the last five games, with only the Saints allowing more rushing yards per game during that span. Rachaad White on the otherhand has been a workhorse. White has topped 100 total yards in each of his last three games, has 15 or more touches over his last eight games, and has 20 or more touches in four of his last six games.

Saquon Barkley- $7,300- 8%

Barkley is coming off of a strong Monday Night performance which is always something that we want to target given the pricing models do not take Monday Night into their algorithm based on release deadlines. For Barkley, he scored two touchdowns and had 101 total yards against the Packers on Monday. This week, he gets an equally favorable matchup taking on the Saints who are allowing 169.8 rushing yards per game over the last six weeks which is the worst in the NFL. They simply have not been able to replace the defensive tackles such as David Onyemata who they lost in the offseason. We’ve seen Saquon have a slate-changing performance back in Week 2 when he had 27 DraftKings points, so we will see if he can build off of his 25-point Monday night performance this week.