The draft is less than two weeks away, and it's smokescreen season. Any news broken after the Combine is probably worthless—that's the common wisdom. Still, this mock is about predictions, and my general prediction is lots of linemen and wideouts.
And, as usual, the quarterbacks will rise, adding to the chaos of the draft. Prospects with second- and third-round grades will go in the top half of the round. We could talk about why, and that would be another entire article. Ryan Nassib aside, this quarterback rise happens annually. Always remember the willingness of NFL teams to gamble on the most important (and well-paid) position in the sport.
This is a one-round, no-trades mock. Each pick will have two "Pro Comps" to existing or retired players for fun. I will also dip back into round two for those teams without a pick in the first.
Check out all the NFL mock drafts at Footballguys:
Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 1.0
Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 2.0
Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 3.0
Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 4.0
Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 5.0
Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 6.0
Jeff Bell's Two-Round 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
2024 First Round Mock Draft
1. Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams (QB - USC)
Pro Comps: Patrick Mahomes II-lite, Kyler Murray
This pick is chalk - the easiest to predict in the draft. Caleb Williams has obvious star potential. He's an off-platform magician. Some wonder about his ball security and working off-schedule (time-to-throw). But no prospect is perfect, and nitpicky scouts don't get a vote.
2. Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels (QB - LSU)
Pro Comps: Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields
The Air-Raid offense favored by new OC Kliff Kingsbury was made for players like Drake Maye, who played in the system in 2022. That said, Jayden Daniels performed better (40-4 TD/INT) against better SEC competition. It's easy to imagine this player catching fire as a rookie.
As a side note, there's a ton of speculation about the Commanders trading back into the mid-first round for an offensive tackle using 36 and 40 (acquired in the Montez Sweat trade).
3. New England Patriots - Drake Maye (QB - North Carolina)
Pro Comps: Justin Herbert, Troy Aikman
Maye is big and has a giant arm. However, like many young quarterbacks, he needs time to learn the pro game. A situation like New England, where Maye can sit behind Jacoby Brissett for a little while, could make all the difference in his development. J.J. McCarthy is another possibility here, and even at 2.
4. Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR - Ohio State)
Pro Comps: Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green
This spot boils down to Harrison, a generational prospect at a position of need or a massive trade-down haul. The Cardinals are asking for three first-round picks for J.J. McCarthy, And that's certainly possible, but so is standing pat and keeping it simple.
5. Los Angeles Chargers - Malik Nabers (WR - LSU)
Pro Comps: shorter CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson
Again, the Chargers could auction off this pick for a ransom. DEN/LVR/NYG/MIN all have interest. But they traded Keenan Allen, cut Mike Williams, and seem locked into drafting a wideout. Nabers is very legit. Could Nabers be better than Harrison? That's a fun debate.
6. New York Giants - J.J. McCarthy (QB - Michigan)
Pro Comps: Alex Smith, Brock Purdy
J.J. McCarthy is the swirling x-factor in the 2024 draft. He could go as high as two, but six is shaping up as his floor. I'm an offensive line guy, so I can't speak to the scouting. But I know draft hype and the momentum behind J.J. McCarthy is real. In this version, he learns in New York while Daniel Jones earns 47 million dollars the hard way.
7. Tennessee Titans - Joe Alt (OT - Notre Dame)
Pro Comps: Mike McGlinchey, Kolton Miller
The Titans' left tackle options are Jaelyn Duncan and Nicholas Petit-Frere. That's just not good enough. Even though the team hired legendary line coach Bill Callahan, they won't go cheap at the left tackle position. Alt isn't as elite as some sources make out, but he is a safe prospect who will do his job at LT for ten-plus years.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner (EDGE - Alabama)
Pro Comps: Von Miller, Manny Lawson
If the board falls like this, the Falcons have their choice between Turner, the best edge, and Terrion Arnold or Quinyon Mitchell, the best cornerbacks. Turner has been the chalk pick for months, and that's because he's rare. It's easy to see the logic behind drafting an edge who runs 4.46 over a corner (Arnold) who runs 4.50.
9. Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze (WR - Washington)
Pro Comps: Drake London, Mike Evans
While the Bears have definite needs at defensive line and edge rusher, the value of Odunze at 9 would be too rich to pass up. With Caleb Williams already on board, adding Odunze to D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen in the slot elevates their offense to the next level.
10. New York Jets - Brock Bowers (TE - Georgia)
Pro Comps: George Kittle, Charles Clay
The Jets want to trade down because they lack a second-round pick. Despite adding Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, they still need linemen. But the Jets are all in right now, and it's hard to imagine them drafting a player who sits. Bowers is versatile and can help the Jets in the red zone, where their offense was historically inept last year.
11. Minnesota Vikings - Michael Penix Jr. (QB - Washington)
Pro Comps: Kirk Cousins, stronger Tua Tagovailoa
This is where things get nutty. Naysayers will point to Penix's age and injury history and say it's insane to take him this high in the first round. And maybe they're right. But Penix's stock is soaring. He took Indiana and Washington on improbable runs, and NFL coaches believe he can do the same for them.
12. Denver Broncos - Bo Nix (QB - Oregon)
Pro Comps: taller Drew Brees, Trevor Lawrence
Here's another wow moment for the first round. The Broncos have Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci as their QB room going into the draft, and that's gotta be the worst in football. Is Bo Nix worth the 12-pick? He is if he starts right away. Nix can make quick reads; he's further developed than most rookies. At 24 years old, he should be.
13. Las Vegas Raiders - Tailese Fuaga (OT - Oregon State)
Pro Comps: Ryan Ramczyk, Penei Sewell
Fuaga is a brawler and my favorite lineman of the 2024 draft class. He's a tone-setter, and he dominates on film. Fuaga (pronounced foo-AHN-guh) is the type of player HC Antonio Pierce wants in his locker room. The downside is that he lacks the feet to play left tackle. But that's okay; a Pro Bowl right tackle or guard has immense value, too.
14. New Orleans Saints - Olu Fashanu (OT - Penn State)
Pro Comps: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Walter Jones
While players like Fuaga (and Troy Fautanu) do everything but play left tackle well, Olu Fashanu is the opposite. He only plays left tackle well. Still, that's hard to find. Fautanu will tempt the Saints, but after Trevor Penning's performance last season, the team could be ready to move Penning to the right side or give up on him altogether.
15. Indianapolis Colts - Quinyon Mitchell (CB - Toledo)
Pro Comps: Corey Ballentine, Steven Nelson
At this point in the first round, the Colts will look at wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU. But the need for a cornerback is too great. And while many sources have Terrion Arnold from Alabama as the top corner, Quinyon Mitchell had a great senior bowl, worked out well, and seems like the type of player Colts' GM Chris Ballard gravitates toward.
16. Seattle Seahawks - Byron Murphy II (DT - Texas)
Pro Comps: Grady Jarrett, Ed Oliver
The Seahawks have a real issue at guard and could opt for local Troy Fautanu from Washington here. But that might be overkill. Their defense needs more pass rush, and after Murphy ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 297, he rose up the board. If Murphy doesn't go here, it's hard to imagine him falling past JAC, CIN, and LAR, all of whom have DT needs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Terrion Arnold (CB - Alabama)
Pro Comps: Trevon Diggs, Marshon Lattimore
There's some discussion here about whether Jared Verse is the pick or if Nate Wiggins is a rarer player than Arnold. Ultimately, the Jaguars need cornerback help, and in this draft, they are uniquely positioned to fill that need. There are no Sauce Gardner top-5 corners in this draft; the high end of the crop tends toward the middle of the round.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Troy Fautanu (OL - Washington)
Pro Comps: Mike Iupati, Ali Marpet
The Bengals need defensive line help, and Johnny Newton is also a consideration. But Fautanu is the player who can make the Pro Bowl at guard and then move out to right tackle in place of Trent Brown when the time comes. Other linemen considered include J.C. Latham and Amarius Mims.
19. Los Angeles Rams - Jer'Zhan Newton (DT - Illinois)
Pro Comps: Sheldon Richardson, Justin Madubuike
It's almost unfair to draft a defensive tackle right after Aaron Donald retires and expect him to fill that role immediately. But no one said life in the league was fair. Jer'Zhan Newton is an undersized disrupter (sounds familiar), and the Rams certainly need one of those right now.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Amarius Mims (OT - Georgia)
Pro Comps: Darnell Wright, Jammal Brown
The Steelers need a center, but 20 might be too expensive for Graham Barton or Jackson Powers-Johnson. Instead, they look at Mims, who has all the physical gifts an NFL coach could want. The Steelers love Georgia players and have the pipeline to develop Mims into a starter, allowing Broderick Jones to move to his natural left tackle spot.
21. Miami Dolphins - Laiatu Latu (EDGE - UCLA)
Pro Comps: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jayden Phillips
Latu has the production and workouts to be a top-10 selection, but he had a neck injury at Washington and their doctors wouldn't clear him for contact. Latu transferred to UCLA and found new doctors; the rest is history. With Phillips and Bradley Chubb rehabbing significant injuries, the Dolphins would rely on Latu early before settling into a rotation.
22. Philadelphia Eagles - Nate Wiggins (CB - Clemson)
Pro Comps: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Cordale Flott
While the Eagles are always threats to draft offensive linemen, this time, they need corners. Wiggins ran a sub-4.3-second 40-yard dash and is the youngest consensus first-round prospect, not even 21 years old on draft day. He's an ultra-rare athlete who can stick in coverage with any WR1 in the league. Every team needs a guy like that.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Jared Verse (EDGE - Florida State)
Pro Comps: Ryan Kerrigan, LaMarr Woodley
The Vikings need interior offensive linemen and cornerbacks, but a player like Jared Verse could add toughness and effort to their blitz-heavy defense. They lost Danielle Hunter to Houston and added Andrew Van Ginkel (MIA) and Jonathan Greenard (HOU), but their pass rush can still use more bite.
24. Dallas Cowboys - J.C. Latham (OT - Alabama)
Pro Comps: Jawaan Taylor, Anthony Davis
The Cowboys could draft a center here to replace Tyler Biadasz, but with Tyron Smith departing, J.C. Latham fits well. While Latham certainly could go higher, most scouts project Latham to right tackle, limiting his value. But Latham himself has stated he wants to play on the left side. And in Dallas, he can get his chance.
25. Green Bay Packers - Cooper DeJean (CB - Iowa)
Pro Comps: Jevon Holland, Christian Gonzalez
DeJean had a season-ending injury and has spent most of the offseason recovering. At his Pro Day workout, he dazzled, putting up a 9.89 RAS score. DeJean could have very easily boosted his stock ten slots higher than listed here. But let's imagine a scenario where Green Bay stays put and gets lucky. It's what they do every year.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Graham Barton (OL - Duke)
Pro Comps: Forrest Lamp, Matthew Bergeron
The Buccaneers' interior line has been a mess since Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet faded from the scene. Barton provides versatility at multiple positions, and the Bucs have guard and center needs. Alert readers will wonder about Jackson Powers-Johnson. I have him going after Barton due to durability concerns.
Besides the interior line, the Bucs also have an alarming need for an edge rusher, where Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has been a real disappointment. Chop Robinson could very well be the pick here.
27. Arizona Cardinals - Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB - Alabama)
Pro Comps: Dre Kirkpatrick, Trent McDuffie
The Cardinals have a serious hole at cornerback, where Lions' castoff Sterling Thomas V and last year's sixth-round pick Kei'Trel Clark are potential starters. McKinstry doesn't have elite measurables, but he's better than most. More importantly, on film, he's a leader who keeps the others around him accountable.
28. Buffalo Bills - Brian Thomas Jr. (WR - LSU)
Pro Comps: George Pickins, Tee Higgins
After the Stefon Diggs trade, the Bills seem locked into wide receiver with this pick. There are three or four players with similar grades to Thomas in this area (Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin, Ladd McConkey), with Thomas just edging out the others. Admittedly, this is a best case scenario to get Thomas at 28, he could very easily be drafted higher.
29. Detroit Lions - Chop Robinson (EDGE - Penn State)
Pro Comps: Josh Uche, Drake Jackson
Robinson was ridiculous in workouts, recording a 4.48 40-yard dash at 254 pounds. His broad jump of 128 inches is also elite. This player doesn't have great film, but the Lions really need someone to attract attention across from Aidan Hutchinson. If Robinson learns how to pass rush, his ceiling is similar to fellow Penn State draft pick Micah Parsons.
30. Baltimore Ravens - Tyler Guyton (OT - Oklahoma)
Pro Comps: Spencer Brown, Tyler Steen
At tackle, Ronnie Stanley enters his ninth season, and Daniel Faalele steps in at right tackle for a departed Morgan Moses. While Patrick Mekari is in the mix, a player like Guyton has the traits to eventually replace Stanley. I also seriously considered wideouts at this spot, but the temptation to develop Guyton was too strong.
31. San Francisco 49ers - Kingsley Suamataia (OT - BYU)
Pro Comps: Austin Jackson, Abraham Lucas
Suamataia is raw but was Bruce Feldman's #3 "Freak" in college football last season. He apparently has tight end speed, reaching 21.8 mph on the gps as a freshman. This player has unique traits, and guys like this usually go in the first round. Given coaching, this player could factor in as a plus starter at right tackle or either guard spot.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Adonai Mitchell (WR - Texas)
Pro Comps: Deandre Hopkins, Josh Reynolds
With Rashee Rice's status up in the air due to legal issues, the Chiefs appear ready for another wideout pick at 32. There are certainly several options here, with Ladd McConkey as a popular projection. We could also see a bit of a reach for Xavier Worthy, Roman Wilson, or Ricky Pearsall. But at this point in the draft, Mitchell is too good a value to pass up.
The First Picks of Teams Without a First-Rounder
33. Carolina Panthers - Ladd McConkey (WR - Georgia)
Pro Comps: Antonio Brown, Diontae Johnson
It's not a secret that the Panthers want a wideout with the first pick of the second round. There are several really talented options here, but McConkey's route running and ability to get open should make life easier for Bryce Young.
42. Houston Texans - Kris Jenkins (DT - Michigan)
Pro Comps: Jonathan Bullard, Byron Young
The Texans have prioritized building the defensive line this offseason, and wherever he ends up, Jenkins should be able to toughen someone's defensive front right away. It's interesting that his father, Kris, was a 44 pick out of Maryland, and this projection has the son going two slots earlier.
54. Cleveland Browns - Darius Robinson (EDGE - Missouri)
Pro Comps: Keion White, Za'Darius Smith
Let's be honest: A player like this could be long gone by 54. But the Browns have a stacked roster, and they don't have to move up to satisfy any glaring needs. While a move-up is certainly possible, they can sit at 54 and wait for a player who should have gone sooner. It happens every year.
