Sunday Morning Update
Sunday Morning Update: 8:38 EST
Admittedly, I haven't slept much with the name Christian McCaffrey just bouncing around my head. The name I keep going back to is Alvin Kamara at $7,100. My concern for McCaffrey, is that even if he is active, how many touches is he going to see? Last year, we saw that they were willing to play him, but then give him much less volume than we are used to seeing from the All-Pro running back.
Meanwhile, at $7,100, Kamara continues to just fly under the radar. If you've read this article long enough like a lot of you had (thank you!), then you know that I have had success going with my own process here for years despite what everyone is saying or not saying about a certain player.
Primary Cash Game Lineup
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $8,500
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,900
- RB Ashton Jeanty, LV, $6,400
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,900
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $5,000
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,300
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100
- TD Denver Broncos, $4,800
What is Cracking FanDuel?
Since we’ve been doing this article for a while now, and there are always some new people, I’m going to give a little bit of history of Cracking FanDuel. I’m Devin Knotts, and I started a version of this as a blog (when those were still a thing) back in 2017. I started at Footballguys in 2015, primarily covering college football at the time, but I have been a DFS player dating back to 2010.
This is a “Cash Game” article. So what is a “cash game”? It is a term that came from poker, but essentially, it is a contest in which you’re looking to double your money. Either an H2H contest or a 50/50 contest, where the top half of the entries get paid.
Cracking FanDuel is a look into my cash game process and how I’m ultimately thinking about building lineups. Throughout the article's lifespan, we have been profitable using the “Primary Cash Lineup,” one of the three lineups provided. That is the primary purpose of this article. The Cash + lineup is a fun lineup that can be used in a little bit larger contest, think 20-200 people. At the same time, the GPP lineup is an optimal lineup using our Multi-Lineup Optimizer that fits in the favorite plays of the week.
Neither the Cash+ nor the GPP lineup has the amount of time or the success rate that the Primary Cash Lineup has. I’ve spent most of my DFS history playing cash games with far more success than GPPs. Despite having six live final entries and several GPP wins, I've found that I no longer chase these things, as I’ve come to love the craft of hand-building and rooting for my players just as much as I do against my opponents. In a GPP format, the thrill is unbelievable, but I found myself consumed by the highs and lows of the game. About 90% of my weekly bankroll each week gets put into the cash game format, while I’ll still take about 10% of my bankroll and enter it into a lottery ticket GPP contest.
2024 Recap
2024 was a little bit of a disappointing season. The Primary Cash Lineup went 10-8 in the consensus 50/50 contests that were entered and tracked. This is a break-even year, given the rake you have to pay each week for the contests. We’re really looking for 11-7 at a minimum to have a profitable year. The good news is that we left last season on a very high note, as the Week 18 cash game lineup was in the 1% of cash game lineups, and some of you used it in GPPs and had a nice payday.
Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip
For most of you who have been here for a while, you know that historically, my favorite way to play has been the Head-to-Head format, where you diversify opponents as much as possible and have a large enough sample size.
While I believe that this strategy can still work, it’s a lot of work, and the DFS operators are not enforcing their rules on responsible gaming. There are 100% teams that are using multiple accounts and teams of accounts. This happens in 50/50’s too, where you’ll see trains of lineups. This is fine in a 50/50, as if you beat that lineup, you’re in excellent shape, while if you don’t beat that lineup, you still have a chance to cash.
With all of that said, single-entry 50/50 contests have become my new favorite contests to enter, as they have a higher return on investment. Small, single-entry GPPs of 200 or fewer people are also contests that, when offered, I will enter, as you don’t see the same train of lineup that you do in head-to-head or 50/50’s.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
It used to be that Week 1 had some horrific pricing due to injuries that occurred in the preseason. Preseason injuries are much less frequent now compared to the past, so there are not many injuries ahead of Week 1.
Christian McCaffrey is the injury that everyone is watching. He was added to the injury report on Thursday after being a full participant on Wednesday. It seems like McCaffrey is more likely to play than not, but if he were to miss, Brian Robinson Jr will get a majority of the snaps. Robinson is a good play, but is not a must-play at $6,300 as he’s priced based on his pre-season expected role in Washington. We would likely see Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings see an increased role as the 49ers take a more pass-heavy approach.
Not a surprise, but Chris Godwin will miss this week with an ankle injury. Emeka Egbuka at $5,000 is a very cheap option, as the first-round pick should play a significant role for the Tampa Bay offense.
2025 Strategy
There’s always a strategy that defines a season. Normally, it is at the quarterback position, as several years ago, the strategy was to pay down at quarterback to ensure you could pay up for the elite wide receivers and tight ends. Last year, it was a shift, as outside of Ja’Marr Chase, wide receiver scoring was largely led by some players who were not the highest priced guys most weeks. Brian Thomas Jr., Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all finished the season in the top 10 of FanDuel scoring. While at the tight end position, rookie Brock Bowers and Jonnu Smith both finished in the top five.
So last year, the strategy was to pay up at quarterback and running back as Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Jayden Daniels all dominated (not giving Baker Mayfield praise in this list, because if you know my disdain for him as a Browns fan, you get it). The big question this year is, what is the strategy going to be this season? It's always difficult to know in hindsight, but we'll try to assess this for the first couple of weeks, learning quickly and adjusting the strategy for the year.
Week 1 Strategy- Be Careful
Be careful this week, as the pricing is a joke. Rookie value is the theme this week, as FanDuel’s pricing model is broken regarding some of the rookie running backs and receivers. The question is, how many rookies are too many?
Starting at the quarterback position, the decision this week is between Drake Maye and Jaylen Daniels. This is a week where, based on the value at other positions; you can likely spend up to Jaylen Daniels. At $8,500, he provides a much higher floor than Maye due to Daniels’ rushing upside. With how many cheap options that exist this week, paying up for a quarterback seems to be the right move.
This is a slate that FanDuel wants you to spend down on unproven running backs. Rookies Treveyon Henderson and Ashton Jeanty are both at ridiculously cheap prices, as is Jaylen Warren at $5,500. Chase Brown, facing an atrocious Browns defense, should be extremely popular at $6,900.
Wide receiver is where the money is going to be won this week. There are a number of cheap receivers in Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan, Ricky Pearsall, Jaylen Waddle, and Matthew Golden that all have significant upside and are $5,500 or less. We’re going to have enough salary to pay up for one or potentially two wide receivers, and at the top, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., and Drake London all seem to be elite options.
At tight end, typically you’re going to want to spend around $6,000 for your tight end most weeks unless there is a player who is mis-priced or an elite prime Travis Kelce type tight end. While Brock Bowers at $7,000 could emerge as that elite, clear number one player, both George Kittle and Trey McBride have as much upside for this given week as Bowers. Given that these players are all within one projected point of each other on Footballguys, going with the cheapest player of the three, Trey McBride, is likely the easy choice.
Cash Game Core Plays
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | 23.0 | $8,300 | There's no reason to spend down at quarterback this week and take the risk that comes with a cheap quarterback. Jaylen Daniels' floor is as high as any quarterback on this slate as he enters his second season. |
| 2 | Drake Maye | 18.6 | $6,600 | Maye is cheaper than he should be, and if there's a player who has upside for a breakout season sub $7k, it would be Maye given his mobility and passing upside. However, there's not a lot of reason to go away from Daniels this week given the pricing being so soft at other positions. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Ashton Jeanty | 16.6 | 6400 | Whether you believe Ashton Jeanty is going to be worthy of his sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft is largely irrelevant. This is a running back who is the 16th-highest running back on this slate. He should be 100% rostered, and if he's not, people are trying to be too cute with their lineup. |
| 2 | Chase Brown | 17.0 | 6900 | The Browns are going to be amongst the worst teams in the NFL once again this season. They have some major concerns up the middle as their linebackers are inexperienced, while they have some major holes along their defensive line in Maliek Collins and Alex Wright. Chase Brown was a volume workhorse over the second half of the season averaging 18.8 carries per game while also showing that he can be a very capable receiver as he caught 54 passes last season. |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | 18.8 | 8100 | If McCaffrey was fully healthy, he would be the number one player on this slate at just $8,100. McCaffrey struggled last season, but he never looked 100% healthy as he played just four games and averaged just 12.5 carries per game. Because of the calf injury, the concern is that his volume may once again be limited like it was last season. If we're only getting 12.5 carries this week, that's going to make it difficult for him to pay off his $8,100 salary even if he's active as a receiver. |
| 4 | Alvin Kamara | 14.1 | 7100 | Alvin Kamara is quietly going under the radar. Despite all of the issues that the Saints had at quarterback last season, Kamara averaged 17.2 FanDuel points per game in 2024. The quarterback issues still exist, but they should be improved compared to Jake Haener/rookie Spencer Rattler last year. Spencer Rattler is entering his second season as the starter and things should be settling down for him this year. Arizona allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points to opposing running backs last season, including allowing 100 yard games in three of their final five games of the season. 39 year-old Calais Campbell is still playing at an elite level, but they have major problems at the linebacker position. |
| 5 | Jaylen Warren | 13.0 | 5500 | With no Najee Harris in Pittsburgh, and Jaylen Warren being listed as the top running back in Pittsburgh, he should see a significant increase in volume this week. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, this should provide upside particularly in the passing game as we could see Warren get closer to his 61 receptions that he had in 2023 compared to just 38 in 2024. Warren is an explosive running back averaging 4.8 yards per carry and if he can get 15-18 touches, will pay off his $5,500 price tag. |
| 6 | Treveyon Henderson | 13.0 | 4700 | $4,700 for a running back who is as explosive as Henderson is just too good of a price. Henderson should see a majority of the touches based on his explosiveness that any time he touches the ball can go for a long touchdown. In his first pre-season touch, Henderson had a 100-yard kick return. There is some concern given that he is listed as third on the depth chart at the moment, but this is likely just the Patriots doing Patriots things. He will be the change of pace, receiving back, and play a Jahmyr Gibbs type role |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Drake London | 13.9 | 7000 | $7,000 for Drake London isn't properly taking into account London's upside that he showed with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. In their three games last year, London topped 100 yards in two of them, including an 18 target performance in their Week 18 game. They've had all offseason to work together, and with the Falcons not bringing in significant competition for London should indicate that this is London's offense this season. |
| 2 | Emeka Egbuka | 12.4 | 5,000 | With no Chris Godwin, Egbuka should be a strong consideration for the top value play of the game. Egbuka may be the most polished wide receiver rookie to come into the NFL this season. While Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan have more long-term upside, Egbuka is a technician coming from the wide receiver factory at Ohio State. If history has shown us anything, it is to trust Ohio State and LSU wide receivers. |
| 3 | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.7 | 5,500 | For McMillan, the opportunity has significantly increased since the pricing came out over a month ago. The Panthers have traded Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker has been placed on IR. This leaves the Panthers with just McMillan and Xavier Legette as primary options for Bryce Young. The concern however is Young, which is why McMillan is not higher on the list. |
| 4 | Ja'Marr Chase | 18.7 | 9,200 | If last year repeats itself, Ja'Marr Chase is underpriced at $9,200 given the point per game. Chase scored 20.9 FanDuel points per game which was 4.4 more than the second-closest wide receiver. The one concern here is that Chase has just one 100-yard game against Cleveland throughout his career as he is averaging just 57 yards per game as Denzel Ward has locked down Chase throughout their career. |
| 5 | Nico Collins | 15.3 | 7,900 | With no Christian Kirk this week, Nico Collins is going to be relied upon heavily against Los Angeles. Collins has been a player who has started hot each of the last two seasons, as he has at least 80 yards in his last two Week 1 games. Ahkello Weatherspoon has been a player that you can target wide receivers against, as the Rams allowed seven wide receivers last year to top 100 yards. |
| 6 | Brian Thomas Jr. | 15.7 | 7,700 | The concern with Thomas this week is he will see a lot of Jaycee Horn, and we don't really know how Thomas is going to perform now that the Jaguars brought in Travis Hunter. What we don't know about Thomas is whether he's going to be the player he was the last four games of the season, or the player he was the first 13 games. Over the last four games, it appeared he is ready to enter the likes of Ja'marr Chase and Justin Jefferson as he averaged 108 yards per game while topping over 90 in each game. In his first 13 games, he was very good, but not elite as he averaged just 65 yards per game. |
| 7 | Davante Adams | 13.4 | 6,900 | Kyren Williams has dominated the red zone over the last two years for Los Angeles. What they've brought in for Adams is a red zone receiving specialist. Adams has six double-digit touchdown seasons, and will likely be looked upon heavily to score a touchdown this week in his first game in Los Angeles. Facing a defense that is going to have Derek Stingley Jr primarily on Puka Nacua should open up opportunities for Adams this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Trey McBride | 12.7 | 6300 | This is just a scenario where both Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are elite options. However, spending down to save the $700 is likely the right move. The one concern is that McBride has not been able to find the end-zone throughout his career. McBride had just two touchdowns last season, but did have 22 red zone targets which is more than both George Kittle and Brock Bowers. |
| 2 | Brock Bowers | 13.6 | 7,000 | For Bowers, the argument is entirely around the upgrade that he will get with Geno Smith compared to last season of Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew. Bowers had five touchdowns last season, but just 14 red zone targets, which without an increase to that number could see some regression. The other deciding factor is with Ashton Jeanty going to be in our lineup this week, do we really want two Raiders players? |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Denver | 12.3 | 4,800 | Getting one of the league's best pass defenses at home against the only rookie quarterback starting this week? Seems like a pretty easy decision to start Denver as the top defense for Week 1. |
| 2 | New York Jets | 9.8 | 3,600 | If you can't afford Denver, we don't know how Aaron Rodgers is going to play in Pittsburgh. It should be an improvement, but last season Rodgers struggled at times as he threw 11 interceptions. Rodgers has now averaged 11.5 interceptions in his last two full seasons. In his 14 seasons prior to the last two, Rodgers had just 2 seasons in which he threw for double-digit interceptions. He was also sacked 40 times last year which the Jets are keenly aware of how to get pressure on him and what coverage he struggled with last year. With Aaron Glenn now leading the Jets, expect them to put pressure similar to how the Lions were able to put pressure on opponents last year. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 139.9)
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $8,500
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,900
- RB Ashton Jeanty, LV, $6,400
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,900
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $5,000
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,300
- Flex RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $8100
- TD New York Jets
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 139.6)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often, these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup, which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $8,500
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,900
- RB Ashton Jeanty, LV, $6,400
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $9,200
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $5,000
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,300
- Flex RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, $5,500
- TD Denver Broncos, $4,800
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 141.6)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $8,500
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,900
- RB Ashton Jeanty, LV, $6,400
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $9,200
- WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX, $7,700
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $5,000
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,500
- Flex RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE, $4,700
- TD Denver Broncos, $4,800