Dynasty Trade Values: October

The first Tuesday of the month means it's time to take a deeper look at dynasty trade values. I hope you're able to use this article alongside the dynasty tools I've built, especially the Dynasty Trade Value Chart. That tool allows me to update player values regularly throughout the day, every Tuesday and Wednesday during the season. I also document every significant adjustment in the Change Log tab, so you can see the reasoning behind each move in real-time. The chart can be customized to fit your league's specific scoring format, roster size, and settings. Since all of the detailed value changes and explanations are already covered in the tool, I'll use this article to focus more on the broader takeaways. This space offers an opportunity to delve deeper into the most intriguing player valuations and examine the broader trends shaping the dynasty landscape.

This month, we'll look at both the positives and negatives for some of the biggest value movers, highlight a few players whose valuations stand out, and discuss a couple of league-wide trends that could impact your dynasty strategy.

League-Trend: Tough Injury Year

Of the 48 players who were drafted in the first four rounds of redraft leagues this season, 14 have already missed games, and many are facing extended absences. This is about as rough a start to a season as I can remember when it comes to injuries to top players. There have also been carryover effects. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown are not among the 14 early-round players who have missed time, but each has been indirectly and negatively affected by Joe Burrow's injury.

Some of this is simply bad luck, but there are a few notable patterns when looking at which positions have been hit hardest. The common perception has long been that running backs suffer injuries at a much higher rate than other positions, but recent seasons have told a different story. Of the top 20 dynasty running backs entering the season, only two—Omarion Hampton and Bucky Irving—have missed time. Compare that to quarterback, where four of the top 12 (Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy) have been sidelined. Wide receiver (CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers) and tight end (Brock Bowers and George Kittle) have also seen injuries to players at the top of the position.

In terms of big-picture takeaways and how this should affect dynasty strategy moving forward, here's how I'm approaching it:

• Prioritize depth at quarterback. I will continue to make it a major priority to have at least three starting quarterbacks in superflex leagues. Last month, I wrote in my preseason quarterback section that managers should look to add more depth at the position. 

As someone heavily invested in Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy, I wish I had followed that advice more consistently. I am in bad shape at quarterback in quite a few leagues.

• Be open to early running backs. It is perfectly fine to use early-round startup picks on running backs. Some of the long-term durability concerns for the position are likely overstated. Injuries happen at every position, and recent trends show that running backs have not been uniquely fragile. I have often focused on quarterback and wide receiver early in my startups and wish I had more shares of Bijan Robinson.

• Exercise caution with tight ends. This might be the most physically demanding position in football. Tight ends are expected to block defensive linemen and linebackers while also staying athletic enough to beat defensive backs in coverage. They take nearly as much physical punishment as offensive linemen but can't play through injuries as easily because their success relies so much on explosiveness and flexibility. I have always felt strongly about stockpiling depth at tight end, even in leagues where I have a strong TE1. This feels even more imperative now.

Quarterback

Drake Maye

We have to touch on Drake Maye, who has been one of the biggest winners of the first month of the season. I currently have him ranked as the fourth-most valuable dynasty quarterback. Here's a look at his case compared to the other elite options.

Positives

• Age and longevity: He just turned 23 and looks like a safe bet to be a long-term starter. He's six years younger than Josh Allen, and there is a similar age gap between Maye and a number of other quarterbacks in the Dynasty Top 10.

• Frame and durability: Maye has an ideal build for the position. He's big, physical, and solidly constructed. That sturdiness gives him a better chance to hold up over time compared to slimmer quarterbacks like Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels. Injuries can happen to anyone, but Maye's body type should help him withstand more punishment.

• Passing growth: His progress as a passer has been remarkable. He's completing 73.9% of his passes through five games, and his adjusted yards per attempt has jumped from 6.29 as a rookie to 8.57 in his second season. Some of the throws he made on Sunday night against Buffalo were special.

• Supporting cast upside: His current situation still has room to improve because the supporting cast is average at best. Stefon Diggs started the year slowly, coming off an injury, and multiple key offensive linemen are young and developing. The environment around him could get better over the next year or two because the Patriots have plenty of cap space to work with moving forward.

Negatives

• Limited track record: The sample size of high-level play is still small. We have multi-year evidence of elite play from Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes II. Maye looks like he's on his way to joining that group, but we can't be fully confident of that until we have multiple seasons of him doing it.

• Modest rushing output: His rushing numbers have been a little disappointing. He's tied for 12th in rushing yards among quarterbacks (alongside Caleb Williams, who has played one fewer game) and is adding 3.4 fantasy points per game on the ground. That's fine, but it's well below the career averages of Allen (7.3), Jackson (7.8), and Daniels (6.9). 

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts is another player worth checking in on after an interesting Week 5 performance. He remains tied with Joe Burrow as a Top 5 value at the position. That valuation is starting to feel a bit precarious, and he could slide a few spots over the next month if the slow start continues.

Positives

• Age and stability: At 27 years old, Hurts is in his prime and firmly entrenched as the long-term starter for one of the NFL's most well-run organizations.

• Elite supporting cast: He continues to benefit from a top-tier offensive line, a strong running game, and one of the league's best receiver duos.

• Rushing dominance: Hurts has 56 rushing touchdowns in 67 starts over the past five seasons, an incredible pace of 14.2 per 17 games. He's averaged nearly 10 fantasy points per game on the ground throughout his career, giving him one of the highest rushing floors ever for a quarterback.

Negatives

• Rushing sustainability: It's fair to question how long his historic rushing production can continue. The "Tush Push" could eventually be banned, and his non-sneak rushing output may decline with age.

• Limited passing numbers: Hurts is averaging just 178 passing yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game this season (12.7 fantasy points per game through the air). Unlike the other top dual-threat quarterbacks, his passing production hasn't kept pace. History suggests quarterbacks who rely this heavily on rushing often struggle to maintain elite fantasy output beyond their seventh or eighth season.

• System constraints: The Eagles experimented with a more pass-heavy approach against Denver, which led to just their second loss in the past year. The run-first formula clearly works for this team, making it difficult to justify opening up the offense more.

Running Back