FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 1

Most weeks, success in FanDuel GPP tournaments comes from drilling into individual matchups and grinding the details to find an edge. Week 1 is different. Success requires stepping back and focusing on the bigger picture. Here’s why:

• We know far less than we think. We don’t yet have a clear picture of which offenses will click, how usage will shake out in key roles, or which defenses will actually be worth avoiding.
  
  

• Pricing is the loosest it will be all season. Salaries were released about a month ago, and plenty has changed since then. If prices came out today, they would look much different, and we wouldn’t have so many strong options in the $5,000 range.
  
  

• Salaries are also soft across the board. Only one quarterback is above $8,000, no tight ends are above $7,000, and just a handful of running backs and receivers crack the $8,000 range.
  
  

That combination of soft pricing and obvious bargains means it will likely take a massive score to win this week. Later in the season, when salaries tighten and there aren’t as many clear values, it can make sense to roster cheaper players who only project for 10 points if they unlock the studs at the top. That’s not the case here. For Week 1, my guiding principle is simple: only target players who have a realistic shot at 20-plus points.

Needing such a big score can feel daunting, but it actually makes things easier. By narrowing the pool to players with true 20-point upside, the list of viable options shrinks. At tight end, there’s little reason to look past the top five or six. At wide receiver, anyone who isn’t one of their team’s top two target earners can be crossed off. Nearly half the quarterbacks are easy fades. We’ll get into specifics at each position below, but the overall theme is clear: Week 1 is about cutting down to the players who can realistically get you 20 or more.

Matchups and Slate Overview

One way to spot potential value in Week 1 is to compare each team’s implied total from oddsmakers to how many points per game they averaged last season. This gives us an early sense of which offenses are expected to exceed or fall short of their 2024 scoring pace. The tables below highlight the best matchups (teams projected to score above last year’s average) and the worst matchups (teams projected below it). For Week 1, exactly half of the teams are projected to score more than their 2024 average, and half are expected to score less.

Best Matchups

Here are the teams expected to outperform versus their 2024 scoring averages in Week 1. This will be due to a combination of offseason changes for the offense and the defense they will face in Week 1.

• The Browns have the biggest Week 1 boost. If Joe Flacco is merely competent, he’ll be a huge upgrade over the quarterbacks Cleveland trotted out in 2024. It also helps that they’re facing a Bengals defense that was a disaster last season and looked shaky again in the preseason. Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku may fly under the radar, but both are in my small pool of Week 1 targets.

• The Patriots also see a big boost compared to last year. The reasons are clear: they face a Raiders defense short on talent, bookmakers are projecting a leap from second-year quarterback Drake Maye, and the supporting cast is better. I’m especially excited about the explosive element TreVeyon Henderson should bring to the offense.

• The Jaguars are another team with a massive boost. The coaching change to Liam Cohen, who coordinated one of the NFL's top offenses in Tampa last season, is a clear upgrade. Adding an elite young playmaker in Travis Hunter only helps. And on top of that, the matchup against Carolina is above average.

Worst Matchups

Here are the teams expected to underperform versus their 2024 scoring averages in Week 1. This will be due to a combination of offseason changes for the offense and the defense they will face in Week 1.

• Detroit was incredibly dominant last season, averaging 33.2 PPG, but some regression toward the league average feels inevitable. The offensive line has lost key pieces, and this week’s matchup against a talented Packers defense that just added Micah Parsons is concerning. We should be hesitant to automatically lock in 2024 stars like Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

• With Christian Kirk out, rookie wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are both min-priced and likely to draw attention. But Houston’s team total sits at just 20.2, and when we limit our pool to players with realistic 20+ point upside, this is a spot where I’m comfortable fading the rookie hype.

ADP-Pricing Model

In my DFS First Look article this week, I talked about making a simple model that used redraft ADP to predict pricing. The goal here was to help ease the transition from season-long to redraft and also to spot the players whose pricing would likely be much more expensive had FanDuel released the prices this week, not a month ago.

The tables below for each position highlight the top FanDuel bargains according to my ADP model. The model takes two inputs: player position and redraft ADP. From there, it generates a predicted Week 1 FanDuel salary. The Model Salary column shows the predicted salary, the Salary column is the actual Week 1 price, and the Difference column shows how much lower the real salary is than expected. Players at the top of the list stand out as the best early values for Week 1, at least according to redraft ADP.

Quarterback

Let's start with the model to see which quarterbacks look the most underpriced compared to their redraft ADP.

The following underpriced players from above are Top Plays in my GPP player pool.

• Drake Maye: As noted above, oddsmakers expect Maye to take a big leap forward in his second season, and fantasy drafters agree. Those expectations are not fully reflected in his Week 1 salary, making him the best bargain on the board. Maye also fits GPPs perfectly with his wide range of outcomes and strong rushing upside. Most players (especially those using lineup generators) will avoid stacking a quarterback with his running back, but I love pairing Maye with TreVeyon Henderson given Henderson’s pass-catching role and big-play potential. With Maye currently projected at just 4.4% rostered against the Raiders, I’m all in.

• Brock Purdy: With Christian McCaffrey’s health in question, it would make sense for the 49ers to lean more heavily on Purdy’s arm, whether McCaffrey sits or plays through a minor injury. Purdy has averaged 242 passing yards and 2.0 total touchdowns per game in the regular season and posted 348 total yards with four scores (three passing, one rushing) in a playoff win over Seattle. He projects for just 4.7% rostered, which makes him a strong leverage play. It helps that Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle are among my favorite plays at their respective positions. 

• Bo Nix: Of all the dual-threat quarterbacks on this slate, Nix feels the most overlooked. He’s projected at just 3.4% rostered despite closing last season with 252.9 passing yards, 2.4 touchdowns, and 17.5 rushing yards per game over his final 10 outings. He should improve in Year 2, especially with an upgraded supporting cast that now includes Evan Engram, RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins, and Pat Bryant. In a home matchup against a mediocre Titans defense, Nix is my favorite quarterback play on the slate. Courtland Sutton is priced in a range many might overlook (hence his 4.0% rostered projection) since they will have so much cap space to work with, making him an outstanding stacking option.

• Michael Penix Jr.: When we zoom out and admit how little we truly know in Week 1, Penix is the perfect example of the type of player we want to target because of how wide his realistic range of outcomes is. He only has three career starts, but the Falcons scored 30-plus points in each of them, and he capped 2024 with 26.0 FanDuel points. Now he faces a Tampa Bay defense that forces pass-heavy game scripts and gave up 20.3 FanDuel PPG to quarterbacks last season (fifth-most). That combination makes him an intriguing GPP option given his bargain price and 3.1% rostered projection. 

Other QBs to Consider

The following players are also in my GPP pool despite very high projected roster percentages. Consider them “good chalk.”

• Joe Burrow: As noted in the introduction, salaries are simply too low across the board. Burrow at $8,000 is Exhibit A. He probably should be closer to $9,000 based on historical pricing trends. The matchup against the Browns isn’t ideal, and Burrow has had some Week 1 struggles in the past, but this year feels different. The Bengals offense is as healthy and focused as it’s ever been, and they look primed for a fast start.

• Jayden Daniels: There’s some hesitation here given how popular Daniels will be and the chance the Giants defense is much improved (with Abdul Carter already flashing at defensive end). Still, with so much value at other positions, it’s easy to get up to the slate’s highest-priced quarterback at $8,500. Daniels’ dual-threat skill set gives him massive weekly upside, making him strong chalk worth eating.

Running Back

Let's start with the model to see which running backs look the most underpriced compared to their redraft ADP.

FanDuel priced the rookie running backs far too cheap. While redraft ADP often favors backups and young players who could move up the depth chart if injuries strike, making many of the names above bad DFS plays, a few names here stand out like sore thumbs. These are the core plays from the names above I want to build around in Week 1.

• TreVeyon Henderson: Henderson is tailor-made for Week 1 GPPs. We don’t yet know how the backfield split with Rhamondre Stevenson will shake out, but my bet is on the rookie emerging quickly as the go-to option. The same analysts who downplayed Omarion Hampton in favor of Najee Harris are now downplaying Henderson’s upside because of Stevenson. While I don’t expect a Hampton-style takeover, I do think Henderson gets more touches than Stevenson right away. The Raiders’ defensive tackles and linebackers are a weak spot, and Henderson is the most dynamic player on a Patriots offense searching for an identity. Consensus projections of 10–14 carries and a few targets feel too conservative. I believe he sees at least six targets, maybe more. With a rostered projection of just 4.4%, I want at least five times that exposure in my Week 1 lineups.

• RJ Harvey: This may be the thinnest play in my Week 1 pool, but the upside is hard to ignore with a rostered projection of only 1.6%. While JK Dobbins could lead the backfield in Week 1, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is Harvey’s job from the jump. Sean Payton has dropped hints all offseason about how excited he is about the rookie. The floor is low—Harvey could play fewer than half the snaps—but the ceiling is massive. We could see 20 touches from an explosive back who should be active in the passing game on a team favored at home, all for under $6K and virtually no ownership. I’m willing to roll the dice.

• Jaylen Warren: Warren looks like a bargain compared to his redraft ADP, but even that undersells him. He should have gone a few rounds earlier in drafts, and he’s the type of veteran I expect to keep the rookie irrelevant early in the season. I love the rookie class, but not all of them, and Kaleb Johnson is an easy Week 1 fade. Warren has a better chance of handling a workhorse role than the market projects. The Steelers are favored in a low-scoring matchup with the Jets, which sets up perfectly for Warren to handle a heavy workload both on the ground and as a receiver.

Others to Consider

We don’t have to limit our focus to the drastically underpriced running backs this week. The soft salary structure makes it possible to pay up for one or two elite options while mixing in the three cheaper backs mentioned above. Here are some of my favorite running back plays on the slate:

• Chase Brown: Brown averaged 78.9 rushing yards and 37.4 receiving yards per game over the second half of last season, and he should pick up right where he left off. If anything, his role as a pass catcher may grow. The matchup against Cleveland is only average, but with Cincinnati favored on the road, the game script should set him up for 20-plus touches. At $6,900, he looks underpriced by at least $1,000 compared to where he’ll likely be within a few weeks. Even with high expected ownership, I want heavy exposure to Brown.

• Alvin Kamara: Kamara is flying under the radar at just a 4.4% rostered projection despite a favorable $7,100 salary and a matchup against an Arizona defense that allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points to running backs last season. I like his chances of starting strong again. Last September, he averaged 20 carries and five targets per game while scoring 1.5 touchdowns and piling up 134 total yards per outing.

• Ken Walker III: Walker’s 2.1% rostered projection was a pleasant surprise. Many are scared off by uncertainty in the backfield, but my lean is that Walker will dominate touches when healthy. I’m also bullish on Seattle’s rushing attack as a whole. Facing a 49ers defense that gave up 23.1 FanDuel PPG to running backs last season (fourth-most), Walker is a low-owned tournament option with real upside.

Wide Receiver

Let's start with the model to see which wide receivers look the most underpriced compared to their redraft ADP.

What a list of names this is. We don’t need to mess around with minimum-priced players this week, so Jayden Higgins and Kyle Williams are out for me. Every other wide receiver mentioned above will be a big part of my player pool. This is where we can save salary without sacrificing much in the way of upside. While all eight non-minimum options are strong plays, the following five stand out the most:

• Emeka Egbuka: It feels like everything is lining up for Egbuka to become an instant NFL star. He is more talented than some give him credit for. He is tough after the catch, runs great routes, and catches everything. He also has the intelligence and work ethic to be the rare rookie who plays like a veteran right away. Injuries have thinned the target competition, with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan sidelined and only Mike Evans reliably commanding looks. That leaves Egbuka as the WR2 in an elite passing offense, and he is just $5,000. The Falcons allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to wide receivers last season. With a projected 14.9 percent rostered rate, he could be the most popular wideout on the slate, but I will take him anyway.

• Ricky Pearsall: I believe in both Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy to keep this offense rolling despite Brandon Aiyuk’s injury and Deebo Samuel Sr.’s trade. I also believe in Pearsall’s talent. There is a difference between having first-round draft capital and proving you were worth that investment. My money is on Pearsall showing that the 49ers were right to take him where they did. With Jauan Jennings missing most of camp and Christian McCaffrey’s status uncertain, Pearsall should be a key piece right away. At just 7.3 percent rostered, he is an appealing GPP option.

• Calvin Ridley: Ridley’s 4.8 percent rostered projection suggests people are scared off by the matchup with Patrick Surtain II, but I think Tennessee will scheme ways to get Ridley free. Both head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz have been clear about moving him around to create mismatches. I expect them to succeed, which makes Ridley an excellent tournament play at his price.

• Matthew Golden: The Packers-Lions matchup has shootout potential and Golden should step in as Green Bay’s top target from day one. At just 2.1 percent rostered, I want to be well over the field.

• Travis Hunter: I get why some may be out on him with concerns about how his two-way role could impact his offensive production. I am not going to be underweight on him in Week 1. He glides around the field, elevates over defenders for contested catches, and is dangerous after the catch. Sometimes it just feels right to bet on a player, and this is one of those times.

Others to Consider

While we can have fun with some of the cheaper, lower-rostered plays, the bulk of our lineups should feature one or more of the elite wide receivers with massive upside. We do not need to over-explain why Ja'Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, and Drake London are strong options when you can afford them, which you can this week.

• Ja'Marr Chase: The matchup against Denzel Ward is tough, but Chase is always a strong tournament option. He scored in both meetings with Cleveland last year.

• Drake London: London is good chalk this week. At just $7,000, he is priced too low for his role. He draws an elite matchup against Tampa Bay, who gave up the fourth-most PPG to wide receivers last season. London already dominates targets in this offense, and that could be even more true in Week 1 with Darnell Mooney questionable after missing nearly all of camp with a shoulder injury.

• Nico Collins: The matchup with the Rams is not ideal, but Collins should see as many targets as he can handle with Christian Kirk and Joe Mixon out.

• Malik Nabers: Nabers saw 12 or more targets seven times as a rookie and averaged 14.5 targets in two meetings against Washington. He should be among the league leaders in opportunities right out of the gate.

• Courtland Sutton: When comparing offensive environments to projected ownership, no spot jumps out more than Denver. Sutton sits at just 4.0 percent rostered in a situation I want heavy exposure to.

• Jerry Jeudy: Joe Flacco’s late-season Cleveland stats were probably unsustainable, but even with regression, this passing game should exceed expectations. Jeudy is the clear top target, and the Bengals defense looked like the same unit that got picked apart repeatedly last year. At just 2 percent rostered and with a cheap price tag, Jeudy is one of my favorite Week 1 plays.

Tight End

Let's start with the model to see which tight ends look the most underpriced compared to their redraft ADP.

I am not sure we need to dig for value at tight end, given that the top players at the position are all priced at $7,000 or less. However, the top three names on the list above stand out as strong options if we do want to save some salary this week.

• Tyler Warren: Reports out of camp have Warren dominating targets in every setting. While Indianapolis has solid wide receiver depth, none of their pass catchers profile as true No. 1 options. Warren could end up leading the team in receptions, similar to how Brock Bowers did last year.

• Evan Engram: We do not yet know what Denver’s offense will look like in Bo Nix’s second season after the front office overhauled the weapons around him. The Broncos were aggressive in adding Engram in free agency and have consistently talked up his potential impact in a versatile joker role.

• Tucker Kraft: Matt LaFleur has repeatedly stressed the need to get Kraft more involved. The third-year tight end finished 2024 on a high note and looks like a candidate for a breakout season. With the Packers’ wide receiver group banged up and a shootout matchup against Detroit on deck, Kraft is an appealing Week 1 option.

Others to Consider

Given the extremely soft pricing and the clear value available at both running back and wide receiver, the elite tight ends all look like good chalk this week. There is no need to overthink it. We know why Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle are fantastic options. Remember, the guiding principle from the start was to focus on players with legitimate 20-plus point upside. Bowers, McBride, and Kittle each fit that bill, and I want at least 20 percent exposure to all three. None of the three will cost you more than $7,000 and is is incredibly easy to find the cap space to get up to the top tight ends. Just do it and try to get unique elsewhere.