All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
Know Your Enemies
To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:
With Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray off the main slate (and Dak Prescott recovering from ankle surgery), we shouldn’t expect heavy quarterback spending in the common roster construction. Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) should be popular stand-alone plays, but the crowd is more likely to play the matchups with lower-priced options, such as Matthew Stafford ($6,300) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900).
Pivot Points: Paying up to Lamar Jackson ($7,700) would ordinarily be a solid game theory play in the context of this slate, but watching him throw 37 times against only two rush attempts in last week’s blowout win over the Bengals raises concern about the knee injury he’s playing through. Instead, look for leverage in the same price tiers as this week’s more popular plays. Cam Newton ($6,500) and Ryan Tannehill ($5,900) are each in great spots as heavy home favorites with implied team totals of at least 27 points. Hopefully, Tannehill’s 30 DraftKings points on national TV Tuesday night didn’t raise his profile too much.
Similar to the quarterback position, bye weeks and injuries have left the player pool at running back devoid of its usual star power. Derrick Henry ($7,300), Alexander Mattison ($7,200), and Mike Davis ($7,000) will appear as the RB1 in many lineups, and enough savings opportunities exist at other positions to pair two of those three on the same roster. But with quite a few high-end wide receivers in terrific on-paper matchups, we’re likely to see season-low running back spending in stock roster-builds. Expect the crowd to settle on inexpensive RB2s like David Montgomery ($5,800), David Johnson ($5,400), and possibly even Myles Gaskin ($5,400), assuming Jordan Howard is inactive again.
Pivot Points: It’s a week where weighing volume over matchup will gain you leverage on the field. James Conner ($7,100), Kareem Hunt ($6,900), Miles Sanders ($6,600), and Joe Mixon ($6,200) are each up against imposing run-stopping units, but their respective talent levels and locked-in workhorse roles give them similar odds as Jones or Henry of finishing as the top scorer at the position.
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