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All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
We have four games on the main slate with an over/under greater than 50 points, which will make for tightly clustered roster percentages at the quarterback position. While no single player stands out as the crowd favorite, we should expect the majority of entrants to spend heavily. The usual suspects are Kyler Murray ($8,300), Patrick Mahomes II ($8,200), Lamar Jackson ($7,800), and Russell Wilson ($7,600). With pricing tighter across the board in Week 3, mid-priced options such as Tom Brady ($6,800) and Matthew Stafford ($6,400) won’t be far behind. The closest thing to a viable punt-play is Daniel Jones ($5,800) in a potentially high-scoring game vs. Atlanta, or perhaps Justin Fields ($5,200), though the rookie will make his NFL debut in a less-than-stellar game environment on the road in Cleveland.
Flip the Build: Josh Allen is available for only $400 less than his Week 1 salary despite underwhelming in consecutive games. Allen isn’t necessarily contrarian, but the glut of spend-worthy options in the top salary tier should shade him a bit in what the public perceives as a difficult matchup against Washington. Trevor Lawrence’s salary ($5,500) will get you building in a different direction than the field. Arizona should have no problems getting out to a big lead on the Jaguars. Lawrence could easily look more like he did during garbage time in Week 1 (25.08 DraftKings points) than last week’s disaster against a stout Broncos’ defense (8.82 DraftKings points).
The majority of the field will fill their RB1 slot by chasing Derrick Henry’s ($8,600) slate-breaking 50-point performance from Week 2 or saddling up Dalvin Cook ($8,400) against the same Seahawks defense Henry just obliterated. Running back pricing has tightened up significantly this week and there is a huge drop-off in quality near the $6,000 range. As a result, roster percentages at the RB2 slot should concentrate around $6.5K, where Najee Harris ($6,600), Saquon Barkley ($6,500), Chris Carson ($6,400), and Joe Mixon ($6,300) are moderately priced relative to their projected workloads.
Flip the Build: The landscape of the position makes it tempting to ride with the crowd. Even foregoing one of Henry or Cook and playing two running backs in the $6.5K range will be common enough. If you’re looking to cut the chalk at running back, Austin Ekeler’s salary ($7,200) will likely put the crowd off him in a game script that favors his receiving skills. Nick Chubb ($7,600) is another pricey option that will go under-rostered. With Cleveland thin at wide receiver and facing a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road, Chubb could easily account for most of the Browns’ 26.25 implied points. There are no true punts at the position, but Leonard Fournette ($5,000) has separated from Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard. If this is the week a couple of Brady’s short scoring attempts are called as runs near the goal-line instead, Fournette could appear in a first-place GPP lineup.
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